Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Weekly Commentary through January 2nd, 2009

    Year-to-Date, the Dow is UP for the year. It has been a long time since you've heard that phrase.  There was no point in 2008 when the Dow was up for the year (at the close of a trading day).  According to Bespoke, since 1900, 2008 was only the fourth year where the Dow (1910, 1962, and 1977) never had a single day where it closed up for the year.  So, as of now, we officially suck less than last year.

    Last week the major market
    averages moved above their 50-day averages for the first time since late August.The Dow is over 9,000.

    The January Barometer:     

    Does a market rally in January imply anything for the rest of the trading year?  "As goes January, so goes the year." This particular phenomenon is what is referred to as the January Barometer.  

    090102 January BarometerIs it true?  I don't know; but it is fun to examine.

    Many reputable services report the January Barometer's recent-history success rate at around 75%; so it is worth watching.

    I was going through some research and found this chart from Chart of the Day.  It illustrates that the S&P 500 has performed much better (on average) during the months following a January gain.  The chart is a few years old, but recent years have followed this trend.

    John Murphy has a slightly different perspective; he says that what the market does during the first week of the new year often gives a clue about direction for the remainder of the year.

    Murphy cites the Stock Trader's Almanac, "S&P gains during January's first five trading days preceded full-year gains 86% of the time". The predictive ability of the month of January is nearly as impressive. "The January Barometer predicts the year's course with a .741 batting average. 12 of the last 14 post-election years followed January's direction" (Almanac).

    The market dropped during the first week and month of 2008 and correctly warned of a bad year ahead. We had a good start to that first week of January here in 2009.  Let's hope it keeps up.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Twitter users grew 6X last year, and 10X more is expected in 2009. (Financial Times)
    • The day Microsoft Zune stayed still; caused by a leap-year glitch. (NYTimes)
    • Apple OS market share tops 10% as MS drops (TUAW)

  • The Year in Pictures

    Browse through some of the best pictures from 2008.  A picture is worth a thousand words; some that come to mind are beautiful, shocking, and surprising …

    Electric Storm 600p

    It took me way too long to put this list together.  Why?  Because I started browsing and enjoying myself.  Hope you do too.

    Here are some Best Photos-of-the-Year sites worth looking at as we close out 2008.

    Here are some that are just for fun.Weird 150p

    • A collection of "weird" people (Chive)
    • A collection of "funny kid" pics (Chive)
    • A collection of "perfectly timed" photos (Chive)

    Here are some others that are from "artier" sources.

    In 2008, many traders felt "over their heads" …

    Trader Over His Head

    It was scary for much of the year …

    Markets Fall

    Still, here is what I'll leave you with … Winter always comes before Spring.

    Tree of Dreams

    Best wishes for a Happy New Year.

  • The Year in Pictures

    Browse through some of the best pictures from 2008.  A picture is worth a thousand words; some that come to mind are beautiful, shocking, and surprising …

    Electric Storm 600p

    It took me way too long to put this list together.  Why?  Because I started browsing and enjoying myself.  Hope you do too.

    Here are some Best Photos-of-the-Year sites worth looking at as we close out 2008.

    Here are some that are just for fun.Weird 150p

    • A collection of "weird" people (Chive)
    • A collection of "funny kid" pics (Chive)
    • A collection of "perfectly timed" photos (Chive)

    Here are some others that are from "artier" sources.

    In 2008, many traders felt "over their heads" …

    Trader Over His Head

    It was scary for much of the year …

    Markets Fall

    Still, here is what I'll leave you with … Winter always comes before Spring.

    Tree of Dreams

    Best wishes for a Happy New Year.

  • Capitalogix Weekly Commentary – December 26th, 2008

    This week I will keep the commentary light, just like the trading volume has been.  Also, I put together a list of posts that I found interesting. 

    Quantitative Easing:  Now that the Fed has effectively cut the target lending rate to zero, it only has one more weapon in its arsenal – Quantitative Easing. Here is an easily understood video explaining this.


    Quantitative easing from Marketplace on Vimeo.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • For stores, a very un-merry Christmas. (CNN)
    • Amazon had a happy holiday season. (BizJournals.com) and TechCrunch)
    • Turn-about is fair play; Russian Professor Predicts End of USA (WSJ)
    • Oil jumps above $39 as Israel-Gaza conflict widens. (Marketplace)
    • Out With the Old, because Creative Destruction made it obsolete. (Lindzon)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Is this the next hot item?  Burger King Cologne Sold-Out. (Reuters)
    • Are computer operating systems becoming extinct? (InfoWorld)
    • Do you still read books?  Electronic Book Readers are getting more popular. (NYTimes)
    • This is Shaquille O'Neal; This is the Real Shaquille O'Neal on Twitter.  (NYTimes and Twitter)
    • Will Cow Flatulence Be Taxed to Combat Global Warming? (TheWeek)
    • Bronx Mowgli Wentz, a name for a rock star or senator? (Fox)

  • Capitalogix Weekly Commentary – December 26th, 2008

    This week I will keep the commentary light, just like the trading volume has been.  Also, I put together a list of posts that I found interesting. 

    Quantitative Easing:  Now that the Fed has effectively cut the target lending rate to zero, it only has one more weapon in its arsenal – Quantitative Easing. Here is an easily understood video explaining this.


    Quantitative easing from Marketplace on Vimeo.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • For stores, a very un-merry Christmas. (CNN)
    • Amazon had a happy holiday season. (BizJournals.com) and TechCrunch)
    • Turn-about is fair play; Russian Professor Predicts End of USA (WSJ)
    • Oil jumps above $39 as Israel-Gaza conflict widens. (Marketplace)
    • Out With the Old, because Creative Destruction made it obsolete. (Lindzon)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Is this the next hot item?  Burger King Cologne Sold-Out. (Reuters)
    • Are computer operating systems becoming extinct? (InfoWorld)
    • Do you still read books?  Electronic Book Readers are getting more popular. (NYTimes)
    • This is Shaquille O'Neal; This is the Real Shaquille O'Neal on Twitter.  (NYTimes and Twitter)
    • Will Cow Flatulence Be Taxed to Combat Global Warming? (TheWeek)
    • Bronx Mowgli Wentz, a name for a rock star or senator? (Fox)

  • Luck is Pretty Good Too

    Luck is underrated. Here is a fun video montage where the hand of fate wasn't so fickle.

    Here is a direct link to the YouTube video.

    What you focus on determines your life.  It has been said many times, in many ways.

    It is easy to focus on what is wrong, what is missing, or what you want to change.  On the other hand, it probably serves us better to feel confident, grateful and loved.  So as we begin 2009, think of how many things went right, how much opportunity is in front of you … and how even "terrible things" serve to put you back on the right track or start on a better path.

    Best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

  • Luck is Pretty Good Too

    Luck is underrated. Here is a fun video montage where the hand of fate wasn't so fickle.

    Here is a direct link to the YouTube video.

    What you focus on determines your life.  It has been said many times, in many ways.

    It is easy to focus on what is wrong, what is missing, or what you want to change.  On the other hand, it probably serves us better to feel confident, grateful and loved.  So as we begin 2009, think of how many things went right, how much opportunity is in front of you … and how even "terrible things" serve to put you back on the right track or start on a better path.

    Best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

  • Photology – A New Way To Find What You’re Looking For

    Overwhelmed by too many photos?  Too busy to sort and tag them?  Try this.

    Photology helps you navigate the flood of digital photos on your computer by finding photos using simple and intuitive filters like faces, sky, color, location, and time of day … automatically.

    081226 Photology Picture Finder

    Can't find the photo of you in that pink silk jacket from the 4th of July party on the beach a few years ago? No problem, even with seemingly endless folders of random photos.  You know the expression, "finding a needle in a haystack," right? Thanks to Photology, haystacks of photos will get a lot smaller, making it much easier to find the "needle" you're looking for – even if that needle is an a pink jacket.

    How do you do it?  Well, like this.

    First stop questioning why you own a pink silk jacket.  Then start remembering what you can.  It was a few years ago (probably 2006).  The photo was of faces.  It was outside.  You were wearing pink.  And It was sunset. 

    Photology Search Made Easay

    You can also combine, mix, and match any or all of these tidbits from your memory to find your photo.  It is fast, fun, and very easy to use.

    Try it yourself with this online demo.  After the demo launches, try the filter options on the left.

    I paid this software – and it was worth it.  Now it is free; an even better value proposition.  I'm still going to use Photoshop Elements for the heavier lifting … Still, Photology has its place in the toolbox.

    So click here to download the software.

  • Photology – A New Way To Find What You’re Looking For

    Overwhelmed by too many photos?  Too busy to sort and tag them?  Try this.

    Photology helps you navigate the flood of digital photos on your computer by finding photos using simple and intuitive filters like faces, sky, color, location, and time of day … automatically.

    081226 Photology Picture Finder

    Can't find the photo of you in that pink silk jacket from the 4th of July party on the beach a few years ago? No problem, even with seemingly endless folders of random photos.  You know the expression, "finding a needle in a haystack," right? Thanks to Photology, haystacks of photos will get a lot smaller, making it much easier to find the "needle" you're looking for – even if that needle is an a pink jacket.

    How do you do it?  Well, like this.

    First stop questioning why you own a pink silk jacket.  Then start remembering what you can.  It was a few years ago (probably 2006).  The photo was of faces.  It was outside.  You were wearing pink.  And It was sunset. 

    Photology Search Made Easay

    You can also combine, mix, and match any or all of these tidbits from your memory to find your photo.  It is fast, fun, and very easy to use.

    Try it yourself with this online demo.  After the demo launches, try the filter options on the left.

    I paid this software – and it was worth it.  Now it is free; an even better value proposition.  I'm still going to use Photoshop Elements for the heavier lifting … Still, Photology has its place in the toolbox.

    So click here to download the software.

  • Happy Holiday Season Wishes

    I put together a short photo album and holiday card.  I hope you'll click this to watch.

    Click to play 2008 Getson Photo Album
    Create your own photobook - Powered by Smilebox
    Make a Smilebox photobook

    Best wishes for a happy holiday season and a terrific 2009.