Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Another Type of Image Toy – Deep Zoom

    The new Deep Zoom technology in Microsoft's Silverlight is pretty cool.  The smooth in-place zooming and panning that Deep Zoom allows is a true advancement and raises the bar on image viewing. High resolution images need to be prepared for use with Deep Zoom to control the zooming experience.

    Here is an example.

    Also, here are three links worth exploring about Deep Zoom:

    • This is a Deep Zoom site of Hard Rock Café Memorabilia (Hard Rock)
    • This is a Barack Obama supporter site using Deep Zoom (Obama)
    • And finally, here is a demo of a web site designed for Deep Zoom (Vertigo)

    If you want a little more background on this, here is a post about why this technology is new and different.

  • Help Your Body to Calm Down – And Your Mind Will Follow

     

    Trading is often stressful. Learning how to handle the emotional and physiological response patterns is an important step toward long-term success.

    During market turmoil, sometimes I notice the seeds of fear, uncertainty, and doubt in my body. Rather than succumbing to this, I have developed a number of coping practices and techniques.

    • The first is simply to follow our trading rules and trust in the process;
    • The second is to rely on automation as much as possible;  and
    • The third is to recognize that my body's cues are an important signal for me to take action.


    Man and Dog Running - istock_000003768984xsmall One of the best ways of coping with stress, for me, is to exercise regularly.

    Have you ever noticed how animals shake or tremble when they are traumatized? These physical activities may be nature's way of helping discharge stress hormones, purge excess energy and release muscle tension.

    For humans, exercise is a pretty close analog to this. I know that I feel better after an hour of brisk activity to get my heart rate up, to sweat, and then to calm down. Somehow this tells my body that the agitation was expected; and now the relaxation is a good and appropriate response, too.

    Another technique that works for me is to use music enhanced with tones to help me meditate or relax.  An example of this is the Centerpointe Holosync package.  Another set that I enjoy is Hemi-Sync music from the Monroe Institute.

    When I get really stressed, though, my wife tells me that it's time for me to use my "light and sound machine." I think my using it helps her as much as me.

    As the name implies, it combines visual and audio stimulation.   So, how does it work?  The short answer is that brain activity naturally falls in-sync with lights flashing at a certain frequencies. And you can encourage certain brain wave patterns by controlling the frequency, color and intensity of the pulses.  Supplementing this with a similar technique based on sound compounds the effect. 

    Procyon Kit Most of these devices include small LED lights mounted in a pair of eye glasses and headphones. The lights and sounds synchronized by a small control unit.  The mind machine that I use, called a Procyon, includes 50 unique, pre-programmed light and sound stimulation sequences within its internal memory, each designed with a specific goal in mind (for example, relaxation, concentration, accelerated learning, creativity, or rejuvenation). Procyon also has the ability to synchronize with audio material on a CD or MP3 – or with AudioStrobe programs.

    Screensaver Example Behind your closed eyelids you will see a kaleidoscope of color, layers of fractals and a variety of screensaver-like imagery. Once you get used to it, the experience is quite pleasant. 

    It's pretty foo-foo; so I'm not going to pretend that this is 100% scientific and logical. Nonetheless, I believe that it is a lot more than a placebo.  Why? Because I have empirical evidence that it works.

    Most importantly, I feel better after I do it. In addition, a biofeedback machine (which measures brain waves, pulse, galvanic skin response and other stress indicators) confirms that the light and sound machine works dramatically and quickly.

    It works on almost everyone I've watched try it (and I've done this with CEOs, programmers, traders, staff members, and a bunch of others). However, it does not work on people who fight it.  And I am amazed at how many people fight it, initially.  After a few minutes, most simply let go and let the technology un-ruffle their feathers.

     The possibilities are great, and the technology is effective. However, the only way to truly appreciate the light sound experience is to try a mind machine for yourself.

  • Help Your Body to Calm Down – And Your Mind Will Follow

     

    Trading is often stressful. Learning how to handle the emotional and physiological response patterns is an important step toward long-term success.

    During market turmoil, sometimes I notice the seeds of fear, uncertainty, and doubt in my body. Rather than succumbing to this, I have developed a number of coping practices and techniques.

    • The first is simply to follow our trading rules and trust in the process;
    • The second is to rely on automation as much as possible;  and
    • The third is to recognize that my body's cues are an important signal for me to take action.


    Man and Dog Running - istock_000003768984xsmall One of the best ways of coping with stress, for me, is to exercise regularly.

    Have you ever noticed how animals shake or tremble when they are traumatized? These physical activities may be nature's way of helping discharge stress hormones, purge excess energy and release muscle tension.

    For humans, exercise is a pretty close analog to this. I know that I feel better after an hour of brisk activity to get my heart rate up, to sweat, and then to calm down. Somehow this tells my body that the agitation was expected; and now the relaxation is a good and appropriate response, too.

    Another technique that works for me is to use music enhanced with tones to help me meditate or relax.  An example of this is the Centerpointe Holosync package.  Another set that I enjoy is Hemi-Sync music from the Monroe Institute.

    When I get really stressed, though, my wife tells me that it's time for me to use my "light and sound machine." I think my using it helps her as much as me.

    As the name implies, it combines visual and audio stimulation.   So, how does it work?  The short answer is that brain activity naturally falls in-sync with lights flashing at a certain frequencies. And you can encourage certain brain wave patterns by controlling the frequency, color and intensity of the pulses.  Supplementing this with a similar technique based on sound compounds the effect. 

    Procyon Kit Most of these devices include small LED lights mounted in a pair of eye glasses and headphones. The lights and sounds synchronized by a small control unit.  The mind machine that I use, called a Procyon, includes 50 unique, pre-programmed light and sound stimulation sequences within its internal memory, each designed with a specific goal in mind (for example, relaxation, concentration, accelerated learning, creativity, or rejuvenation). Procyon also has the ability to synchronize with audio material on a CD or MP3 – or with AudioStrobe programs.

    Screensaver Example Behind your closed eyelids you will see a kaleidoscope of color, layers of fractals and a variety of screensaver-like imagery. Once you get used to it, the experience is quite pleasant. 

    It's pretty foo-foo; so I'm not going to pretend that this is 100% scientific and logical. Nonetheless, I believe that it is a lot more than a placebo.  Why? Because I have empirical evidence that it works.

    Most importantly, I feel better after I do it. In addition, a biofeedback machine (which measures brain waves, pulse, galvanic skin response and other stress indicators) confirms that the light and sound machine works dramatically and quickly.

    It works on almost everyone I've watched try it (and I've done this with CEOs, programmers, traders, staff members, and a bunch of others). However, it does not work on people who fight it.  And I am amazed at how many people fight it, initially.  After a few minutes, most simply let go and let the technology un-ruffle their feathers.

     The possibilities are great, and the technology is effective. However, the only way to truly appreciate the light sound experience is to try a mind machine for yourself.

  • Weekly Commentary through September 5th, 2008

    The bailout of Freddie & Fannie should breathe some life into markets that needed a lift. 

    That means stock
    markets around the world are breathing a little easier after a tough
    last week. For example, Russia and Taiwan each lost over 10%.

    Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.  This chart shows how the NASDAQ fared last week.

    080904 NQ Drop

    The chart doesn't need fancy indicators or words to tell the market's story: it went down.

    Last week I said a move down, here, wouldn't surprise me.  We got more than I expected, because it was unrelenting.  After a big gap-up to start the trading week, it was straight down from there.

    Now for the S&P 500 Index. 

    080905 SPX Trend 500p

    This chart shows the monthly displaced moving average
    channel for the S&P 500 index. It typically acts as support or resistance to the markets longer trend.  Notice how the attempted rally in August moved the
    index closer to the channel; but the market wiped-out that
    effort in just a few days of trading. 

    What about the Dow Jones industrial average?  Which economic anxieties were the catalysts as the Dow plummeted 344.65 points on Thursday ?  Was it that initial unemployment claims were near a 5-year high, the weak retail sales report, or fear of a global slow-down?

    There is probably a little more work to be done on the downside, setting-up a decent bounce.  Again, historical patterns show a year-end rally typically starts in late September or early October. And the 4-year Presidential cycle pattern also favors a year-end rally.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • U.S. Near Deal To Save Freddie and Fannie (WSJ, Washington Post)
    • Another Bank Fails: 11th this year, as Regulators shut Silver State (WSJ, FDIC)
    • Swing-Trading the Sell-Off (TradingMarkets via Forbes)
    • Who's afraid of Sovereign Wealth Funds? (Minyanville)
    • James Surowiecki on "That Uncertain Feeling" affecting the herd of investors (New Yorker)
    • Unemployment hits 6.1% and a closer look doesn't make it prettier (Dash of Insight, Portfolio)
    • Bank of Canada Offers a Downbeat Outlook while holding rates steady (NYTimes)
    • Did governments work together to save the Dollar? (Clusterstock)
    • BMW sales up 2% last month, year-over-year (Bloomberg)
    • Doug Kass says this is what market bottoms look like (Street.com)
    • Trader Mike says we're not oversold yet (Trader Mike)
    • McCain speech seen by record number of viewers (Bloomberg)
    • Apple's iPhone making gains in business users (WSJ)
    • Yahoo Below $19: Microsoft's $31 Offer is Looking Pretty Good Right Now (Silicon Alley Investor)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Technology That Out-thinks Us: A Partner or a Master? (NYTimes)
    • Numerati: How math models improve productivity and management (BusinessWeek)
    • Lines and Bubbles and Bars, Oh My! New Ways to Sift and Visualize Data  (NYTimes)
    • Microsoft has been granted a patent on 'Page Up' and 'Page Down' keystrokes (ZDNet)
    • Invisibility Cloak becoming a reality; the challenge is seeing out of it (New Scientist, More)
    • Facebook's hottest games (Forbes)
    • Hulu Getting NBC Shows Before TV Does (Silicon Alley Investor)
    • ESPN and Electronic Arts Innovating Play-By-Play Commentary (NYTimes)
    • Google developed its own web browser called Chrome (CNet, WSJ)
    • Andy Kessler's take on what Google is really doing with Chrome (Andy Kessler)
    • Is the first Jerry Seinfeld ad for Microsoft funny?  You decide (NextWeb)
    • Download Limits: Is "all-you-can-eat" Internet a thing of the past? (ABC)
  • Weekly Commentary through September 5th, 2008

    The bailout of Freddie & Fannie should breathe some life into markets that needed a lift. 

    That means stock
    markets around the world are breathing a little easier after a tough
    last week. For example, Russia and Taiwan each lost over 10%.

    Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.  This chart shows how the NASDAQ fared last week.

    080904 NQ Drop

    The chart doesn't need fancy indicators or words to tell the market's story: it went down.

    Last week I said a move down, here, wouldn't surprise me.  We got more than I expected, because it was unrelenting.  After a big gap-up to start the trading week, it was straight down from there.

    Now for the S&P 500 Index. 

    080905 SPX Trend 500p

    This chart shows the monthly displaced moving average
    channel for the S&P 500 index. It typically acts as support or resistance to the markets longer trend.  Notice how the attempted rally in August moved the
    index closer to the channel; but the market wiped-out that
    effort in just a few days of trading. 

    What about the Dow Jones industrial average?  Which economic anxieties were the catalysts as the Dow plummeted 344.65 points on Thursday ?  Was it that initial unemployment claims were near a 5-year high, the weak retail sales report, or fear of a global slow-down?

    There is probably a little more work to be done on the downside, setting-up a decent bounce.  Again, historical patterns show a year-end rally typically starts in late September or early October. And the 4-year Presidential cycle pattern also favors a year-end rally.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • U.S. Near Deal To Save Freddie and Fannie (WSJ, Washington Post)
    • Another Bank Fails: 11th this year, as Regulators shut Silver State (WSJ, FDIC)
    • Swing-Trading the Sell-Off (TradingMarkets via Forbes)
    • Who's afraid of Sovereign Wealth Funds? (Minyanville)
    • James Surowiecki on "That Uncertain Feeling" affecting the herd of investors (New Yorker)
    • Unemployment hits 6.1% and a closer look doesn't make it prettier (Dash of Insight, Portfolio)
    • Bank of Canada Offers a Downbeat Outlook while holding rates steady (NYTimes)
    • Did governments work together to save the Dollar? (Clusterstock)
    • BMW sales up 2% last month, year-over-year (Bloomberg)
    • Doug Kass says this is what market bottoms look like (Street.com)
    • Trader Mike says we're not oversold yet (Trader Mike)
    • McCain speech seen by record number of viewers (Bloomberg)
    • Apple's iPhone making gains in business users (WSJ)
    • Yahoo Below $19: Microsoft's $31 Offer is Looking Pretty Good Right Now (Silicon Alley Investor)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Technology That Out-thinks Us: A Partner or a Master? (NYTimes)
    • Numerati: How math models improve productivity and management (BusinessWeek)
    • Lines and Bubbles and Bars, Oh My! New Ways to Sift and Visualize Data  (NYTimes)
    • Microsoft has been granted a patent on 'Page Up' and 'Page Down' keystrokes (ZDNet)
    • Invisibility Cloak becoming a reality; the challenge is seeing out of it (New Scientist, More)
    • Facebook's hottest games (Forbes)
    • Hulu Getting NBC Shows Before TV Does (Silicon Alley Investor)
    • ESPN and Electronic Arts Innovating Play-By-Play Commentary (NYTimes)
    • Google developed its own web browser called Chrome (CNet, WSJ)
    • Andy Kessler's take on what Google is really doing with Chrome (Andy Kessler)
    • Is the first Jerry Seinfeld ad for Microsoft funny?  You decide (NextWeb)
    • Download Limits: Is "all-you-can-eat" Internet a thing of the past? (ABC)
  • Weekly Commentary Charts through August 29, 2008

    Another week of big swings in thinly-traded markets.  There is a trading range in the S&P 500 where the bears defend the top (1295) and the bulls defend the bottom (1260). So far, no one is winning. Let's see which way things break; though a short-term move down here wouldn't surprise me.

    Historical patterns show a year-end rally typically starts in late September or early October. The 4-year Presidential cycle pattern also favors a year-end rally.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • Lehman in urgent talks to secure a capital injection before earnings call (UK Telegraph)
    • Worker Confidence sinks to levels of last recession (WSJ)
    • Nightmare on Wall Street: Why the Credit Crisis has lasted so long? (Economist)
    • Candidates on the Credit Crisis (Dash of Insight)
    • Does history favor Democrats' economic plan? (NYTimes)
    • Victor Niederhoffer on why the Markets continue to surprise him (Daily Speculations)
    • A positive sign for markets: 64% of stocks above their 50-day averages (Bespoke)
    • Is the "Bearish Crescendo" a contrarian sign of a market Bottom? (Shaeffers)
    • Ten factors that contribute to Market Mood Swings (Seeking Alpha)
    • To make a stock "pop" – Innovate (NYTimes)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Great Photos from Beijing Olympics (Boston Globe, LA Times, Time, FT,The Star, S.I.)
    • The Business of College Football is probably Bigger than you think (Forbes)
    • Does it Matter that Internet Traffic is beginning to bypass the US? (NYTimes)
    • Interesting comparison of housing market price declines in various cities (Bespoke)
    • Obama's acceptance speech for Democratic Presidential Nomination (Politico, Many Eyes)
    • Air-Ball: Game Ball Delivered by Parachute; Skydivers land in Wrong Stadium (Inquirer)
    • Microsoft releases beta of a major new version of Internet Explorer (WSJ, Microsoft)
  • Weekly Commentary Charts through August 29, 2008

    Another week of big swings in thinly-traded markets.  There is a trading range in the S&P 500 where the bears defend the top (1295) and the bulls defend the bottom (1260). So far, no one is winning. Let's see which way things break; though a short-term move down here wouldn't surprise me.

    Historical patterns show a year-end rally typically starts in late September or early October. The 4-year Presidential cycle pattern also favors a year-end rally.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • Lehman in urgent talks to secure a capital injection before earnings call (UK Telegraph)
    • Worker Confidence sinks to levels of last recession (WSJ)
    • Nightmare on Wall Street: Why the Credit Crisis has lasted so long? (Economist)
    • Candidates on the Credit Crisis (Dash of Insight)
    • Does history favor Democrats' economic plan? (NYTimes)
    • Victor Niederhoffer on why the Markets continue to surprise him (Daily Speculations)
    • A positive sign for markets: 64% of stocks above their 50-day averages (Bespoke)
    • Is the "Bearish Crescendo" a contrarian sign of a market Bottom? (Shaeffers)
    • Ten factors that contribute to Market Mood Swings (Seeking Alpha)
    • To make a stock "pop" – Innovate (NYTimes)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Great Photos from Beijing Olympics (Boston Globe, LA Times, Time, FT,The Star, S.I.)
    • The Business of College Football is probably Bigger than you think (Forbes)
    • Does it Matter that Internet Traffic is beginning to bypass the US? (NYTimes)
    • Interesting comparison of housing market price declines in various cities (Bespoke)
    • Obama's acceptance speech for Democratic Presidential Nomination (Politico, Many Eyes)
    • Air-Ball: Game Ball Delivered by Parachute; Skydivers land in Wrong Stadium (Inquirer)
    • Microsoft releases beta of a major new version of Internet Explorer (WSJ, Microsoft)
  • Doing What Works – Insight Happens in an Instant

    080829 kung fu panda poster 200p
    Colin Powell said that "There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure." 

    On the other hand, I've found that insight often happens in an instant. 

    In Kung Fu Panda,
    an overweight,  seemingly uncoordinated panda transforms into the
    unlikely hero of the story who battles evil and saves his village.  The
    turning point?  His teacher recognized that during a quest for a snack,
    nothing could keep our hero from his food.  By integrating that in the
    training routine, a star was born.

    OK, that was a Disney movie.  Maybe you want a real-life example?

    My
    youngest son, Zach, is learning to drive.  Currently, I am working on
    improving his mental map of where he is, where he is going, and how to
    get there.

    My early assessment was that he did not have much of
    a sense of direction.  This was making our time in the car together
    either existentially funny – or stressful – depending on my mood.

    "What
    comes next?" was often followed by a blank look or a head shake. The
    answer to "Which way do we turn?" was a seemingly random "north,"
    "south," "east," "west," "right," or "left" — or sometimes several of
    them.

    Apparently, I was asking the wrong questions.  He has an
    encyclopedic knowledge of where restaurants are, and an uncanny ability
    to get there.  We just have to plot his course with the right
    milestones (fast-food, pizza and ice cream).

    He explained to me, "hey, I just do what works."  And that makes a lot of sense; I'm just glad he found something that works.

  • Doing What Works – Insight Happens in an Instant

    080829 kung fu panda poster 200p
    Colin Powell said that "There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure." 

    On the other hand, I've found that insight often happens in an instant. 

    In Kung Fu Panda,
    an overweight,  seemingly uncoordinated panda transforms into the
    unlikely hero of the story who battles evil and saves his village.  The
    turning point?  His teacher recognized that during a quest for a snack,
    nothing could keep our hero from his food.  By integrating that in the
    training routine, a star was born.

    OK, that was a Disney movie.  Maybe you want a real-life example?

    My
    youngest son, Zach, is learning to drive.  Currently, I am working on
    improving his mental map of where he is, where he is going, and how to
    get there.

    My early assessment was that he did not have much of
    a sense of direction.  This was making our time in the car together
    either existentially funny – or stressful – depending on my mood.

    "What
    comes next?" was often followed by a blank look or a head shake. The
    answer to "Which way do we turn?" was a seemingly random "north,"
    "south," "east," "west," "right," or "left" — or sometimes several of
    them.

    Apparently, I was asking the wrong questions.  He has an
    encyclopedic knowledge of where restaurants are, and an uncanny ability
    to get there.  We just have to plot his course with the right
    milestones (fast-food, pizza and ice cream).

    He explained to me, "hey, I just do what works."  And that makes a lot of sense; I'm just glad he found something that works.

  • Before He Trades Video

    This tongue-in-cheek music video, called "Before He Trades," re-makes a popular Carrie Underwood song as a trading reminder.


    Here is the direct link.  From John Carter.