Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Data Visualization of President Obama’s Inauguration Speech

    Here are two interactive ways to look at and understand what was said.

    090120 Obama Speech Word Cloud

    Go to Wordle's site to make one yourself.  You can choose colors and layouts to get the look you want.

    Also, here is a Word Tree from IBM's Many Eyes site.  I like this type of tool because you can interact with the data.  Type in any word you see in the Word Cloud above.  This will show you every instance of that word, in context.

    090120 Obama Speech Word Tree Also, here is an embedded link to a version you can interact with yourself.  I suggest you start with words frequently used in the speech like: Nation, People, Today, New and Must.  You can also try phrases like "We Will".

    The Word Tree tool is interesting and useful. Also, I can see how it will work in a business setting with business plans, proposals, marketing material, etc.  This is very cool; and it is easy to build a word tree on your own data at Many Eyes.  Have Fun. 

    Other Links:

    • Word Clouds of Inaugurations Compared (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Lincoln). (Read Write Web)
    • Hand-Drawn Mindmap of Obama's Speech. (Agerbeck)
    • Photosynth Image of Inauguration site. (Mashable)
    • Another Inauguration site panorama with incredible detail. (Gigapan)
    • Pictures of Obama's Inauguration from Space; puts things in a different perspective. (GeoEye)

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/16/09

    Are we in a Recession or Depression?  From my standpoint, I don't think it matters much.  Naming the disease doesn't fix it if you still don't know the cure.  Regardless of what you call it, we're still faced with the symptoms: the credit collapse, carnage in the financial sector, higher prices but less money to spend, and rising unemployment. 

    The kicker is this has been happening worldwide.  Yet, most commentary I read treats this like the cause and effect happen here.  If you look around, though, there haven't been many safe havens. And I suspect that we have less to do with the start or end of this mess than we give ourselves credit or blame for.

    It Is Not What Happens, But What You Do.  You see it repeated through history … Times like these are the catalyst to great wealth for some, and the poor-house for others.  If someone were looking back on this time from 10 or 15 years in the future, this is probably early in the new cycle.  This is a good time to figure-out what you believe will work going forward. 

    The party isn't over.  It is just a new dance, with a different rhythm and a faster pace.  So, maybe it is time to be nimble and to learn some new steps?

    A Look at the Markets:  A few weeks ago, 80% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving averages.  With the declines we've seen since then, that percentage has moved down to 40%.  Financials have led those declines

    This chart shows 2009 performance, by sector.  So far most sectors are doing well.  The exception has been Financials, which look a bit oversold.

    090116 Sector Performance Chart

    Nonetheless, with the S&P 500 approaching its November lows, it's comforting to see 40% of stocks still trading above their 50-day moving averages.  At the prior lows, the number got down nearly to zero.  The fact that the overall declines have been limited to a smaller area of the market is a positive for those hoping that the lows will hold.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • Is so much bad news good news for you? A Bullish forecast. (Dash of Insight)
    • Bank of America gets another $20 Billion from the Fed (Federal Reserve)
    • Yahoo has a new CEO, how did Wall Street react? (TechCrunch)
    • Sony looks set to lose $1.1 Billion in Fiscal 2008 for first loss in 14 years. (Gizmodo)
    • Circuit City Pulls the Plug.  They are liquidating and closing over 500 stores. (Huffington Post)
    • Disney seeing some positive signs? (Jim Hill)
    • Great Visualization showing GM's woes, the least of which is lack of cash. (WallStats)
    • Twitter's New Status as an Investment Tool. (MSN Money Central)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Size Does
      Matter: Finger length may reveal your financial acumen. (New
      Scientist       & Telegraph)
    • Your inner voice never lies. But does it know what it is talking about? (Psychology Today)
    • Schools get futuristic face scanners to identify students and strangers. (Telegraph)
    • In retrospect, this was a huge marketing boner. Funny. (YouTube)
    • MS’s new Songsmith product adds music to any vocal track. "Epic Fail". (Blog & Gizmodo)
    • The taxman cometh? IRS urged to tax virtual worlds, economies. (Ars Technica)
    • Surprise, surprise … research shows Facebook still mostly for the young. (MIT Tech Review)

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/16/09

    Are we in a Recession or Depression?  From my standpoint, I don't think it matters much.  Naming the disease doesn't fix it if you still don't know the cure.  Regardless of what you call it, we're still faced with the symptoms: the credit collapse, carnage in the financial sector, higher prices but less money to spend, and rising unemployment. 

    The kicker is this has been happening worldwide.  Yet, most commentary I read treats this like the cause and effect happen here.  If you look around, though, there haven't been many safe havens. And I suspect that we have less to do with the start or end of this mess than we give ourselves credit or blame for.

    It Is Not What Happens, But What You Do.  You see it repeated through history … Times like these are the catalyst to great wealth for some, and the poor-house for others.  If someone were looking back on this time from 10 or 15 years in the future, this is probably early in the new cycle.  This is a good time to figure-out what you believe will work going forward. 

    The party isn't over.  It is just a new dance, with a different rhythm and a faster pace.  So, maybe it is time to be nimble and to learn some new steps?

    A Look at the Markets:  A few weeks ago, 80% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving averages.  With the declines we've seen since then, that percentage has moved down to 40%.  Financials have led those declines

    This chart shows 2009 performance, by sector.  So far most sectors are doing well.  The exception has been Financials, which look a bit oversold.

    090116 Sector Performance Chart

    Nonetheless, with the S&P 500 approaching its November lows, it's comforting to see 40% of stocks still trading above their 50-day moving averages.  At the prior lows, the number got down nearly to zero.  The fact that the overall declines have been limited to a smaller area of the market is a positive for those hoping that the lows will hold.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • Is so much bad news good news for you? A Bullish forecast. (Dash of Insight)
    • Bank of America gets another $20 Billion from the Fed (Federal Reserve)
    • Yahoo has a new CEO, how did Wall Street react? (TechCrunch)
    • Sony looks set to lose $1.1 Billion in Fiscal 2008 for first loss in 14 years. (Gizmodo)
    • Circuit City Pulls the Plug.  They are liquidating and closing over 500 stores. (Huffington Post)
    • Disney seeing some positive signs? (Jim Hill)
    • Great Visualization showing GM's woes, the least of which is lack of cash. (WallStats)
    • Twitter's New Status as an Investment Tool. (MSN Money Central)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Size Does
      Matter: Finger length may reveal your financial acumen. (New
      Scientist       & Telegraph)
    • Your inner voice never lies. But does it know what it is talking about? (Psychology Today)
    • Schools get futuristic face scanners to identify students and strangers. (Telegraph)
    • In retrospect, this was a huge marketing boner. Funny. (YouTube)
    • MS’s new Songsmith product adds music to any vocal track. "Epic Fail". (Blog & Gizmodo)
    • The taxman cometh? IRS urged to tax virtual worlds, economies. (Ars Technica)
    • Surprise, surprise … research shows Facebook still mostly for the young. (MIT Tech Review)

  • Hope, As Something to Hope For

    Regime Change Political Cartoon
    It doesn't matter if you've read "The Audacity of Hope."  Tuesday, change will come.

    I'm pretty sure that President Obama will not have these lines in his Inauguration Speech.

    "Most of all, I want to thank the Republicans for making this historic occasion possible. Of course, I must also thank you, President Bush, for years of angering the American people. Without your efforts, none of this would have been possible. You have shown the world that  "change" is not only something we can believe in again, but something we demand."

    What Obama won't say on Tuesday … is being said with cartoons or gadgets like this Obama Inauguration Speech Generator.
    Click the image below to make your own.

    090117 Obama Inauguration Speech Generator 600p

    I found it at Mashable, and enjoyed remembering playing MadLibs as a little kid.

    Also, Esquire had an interesting piece that generated two links on this topic.

  • Hope, As Something to Hope For

    Regime Change Political Cartoon
    It doesn't matter if you've read "The Audacity of Hope."  Tuesday, change will come.

    I'm pretty sure that President Obama will not have these lines in his Inauguration Speech.

    "Most of all, I want to thank the Republicans for making this historic occasion possible. Of course, I must also thank you, President Bush, for years of angering the American people. Without your efforts, none of this would have been possible. You have shown the world that  "change" is not only something we can believe in again, but something we demand."

    What Obama won't say on Tuesday … is being said with cartoons or gadgets like this Obama Inauguration Speech Generator.
    Click the image below to make your own.

    090117 Obama Inauguration Speech Generator 600p

    I found it at Mashable, and enjoyed remembering playing MadLibs as a little kid.

    Also, Esquire had an interesting piece that generated two links on this topic.

  • Three Simple Questions To Help Make This Your Best Year Ever

    Financial Audit Image 250p
    We are preparing for our yearly audit. On one hand, this is a task that is hard to like. It reeks of administrivia; and it seems like the best that happens is that nothing happens.

    On the other hand, this is a great opportunity for us to review aspects of our business that rarely get primary focus. It reminds me of putting together a business plan. The actual plan isn't nearly as important as the thought and effort that went into creating it.

    So, as we start the new year, I challenge you to look at some aspects of your business or life that you know need a little bit more of your focus. To borrow from the Strategic Coach (which is one of my favorite sources), you can start by asking yourself three questions.

    1. What do I want to do more of?
    2. What do I want to do less of?
    3. What do I want to start doing?

    Be honest with yourself, and recognize that there's a difference between data-driven tactics, things that emotionally charge you, and the things you just know are true.

    You have a clean slate and open field, realize you can fill it with anything. Choose wisely.

  • Three Simple Questions To Help Make This Your Best Year Ever

    Financial Audit Image 250p
    We are preparing for our yearly audit. On one hand, this is a task that is hard to like. It reeks of administrivia; and it seems like the best that happens is that nothing happens.

    On the other hand, this is a great opportunity for us to review aspects of our business that rarely get primary focus. It reminds me of putting together a business plan. The actual plan isn't nearly as important as the thought and effort that went into creating it.

    So, as we start the new year, I challenge you to look at some aspects of your business or life that you know need a little bit more of your focus. To borrow from the Strategic Coach (which is one of my favorite sources), you can start by asking yourself three questions.

    1. What do I want to do more of?
    2. What do I want to do less of?
    3. What do I want to start doing?

    Be honest with yourself, and recognize that there's a difference between data-driven tactics, things that emotionally charge you, and the things you just know are true.

    You have a clean slate and open field, realize you can fill it with anything. Choose wisely.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/09/09

    Economist Chart of Stock Market Returns shows 2008 as second worst year since 1825.

    This was the first full week of trading in 2009.  While the markets pulled-back a bit, most defended their technically-important 50-day moving averages.

    Two Steps Forward, One Step Back:  This week started with 80% of the S&P 500 stocks sitting above their 50-day moving averages.  That is stat-geek-speak for "there has been a significant rally off the November bottom." Moreover, people are feeling good about the market's progress. Investors Intelligence
    readings show people are more
    bullish now than they were during the rally off the July low.

    Regardless of my analysis or opinions, we rely on mechanical trading models to determine our market posture. Still, I follow the markets closely, and the market's consistently negative bias surprised me this past week.  That might be good though.  We worked-off a lot of the overbought condition and put things in place for a more natural Obama Inauguration Rally.

    How Bad Was 2008?  The chart on the right is from The Economist, and shows the distribution of US Stock Market Returns Since 1825.  One of the things it shows is that 2008 was the second-worst year of performance.

    So as awful as 2008's performance was, historically, remember that it ended with a 20% rally off the bottom to end the year. 

    The real question is whether you think the rally will last?  Is it a Bear-Market
    Rally sucker play, or a real opportunity to put some capital back to
    work?

    I predict big changes are coming (not hard to do with the economy where it is and a new President about to take office).  So, here are some data to help point the way.

    Here are a Few of the Posts I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Cover your eyes, then check-out these 2008 Year-End Returns for World Markets.(Bespoke)
    • US Unemployment Back to 1945 Levels; 2.6MM Jobs Lost in 2008. (Citywire)
    • Oxymoron? A relatively sane Elliott Wave market
      prediction for 2009. (Yelnick)
    • Bear Rally or Bull Market?  Are too many people too bullish too quickly? (Hulbert)
    • The Fed is Flooding the Markets with Cash. (Clusterstock)
    • WSJ's "The End of Wall Street" video series (Click to Watch)
    • The End of the Financial World As We Know It? (NYTimes Part 1 & Part 2)
    • Ironic that Satyam (which means Truth) didn't outsource Fraud, they did it themselves. (FT)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Putting tongues firmly in cheeks, Porn Industry seeks $5BB Federal Bailout. (CNN)
    • Obama Fighting for his Blackberry.  This may be a fight he loses. (TechDirt)
    • Why do Investment Swindles continue to work? (WSJ)
    • Can Risk Be Adequately Quantified? (Naked Capitalism)
    • This year China's
      Internet users will surpass the entire population of the U.S. (Kedrosky)
    • The Bull and Bear Cases for Hedge Funds. (Bull: Seeking Alpha and Bear: Yahoo Finance)
    • Balanced Commentary on the Middle East's Hundred Year War (Economist)
    • Funny list of "Stuff White People Like" – and I do like most of it. (Blog)

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/09/09

    Economist Chart of Stock Market Returns shows 2008 as second worst year since 1825.

    This was the first full week of trading in 2009.  While the markets pulled-back a bit, most defended their technically-important 50-day moving averages.

    Two Steps Forward, One Step Back:  This week started with 80% of the S&P 500 stocks sitting above their 50-day moving averages.  That is stat-geek-speak for "there has been a significant rally off the November bottom." Moreover, people are feeling good about the market's progress. Investors Intelligence
    readings show people are more
    bullish now than they were during the rally off the July low.

    Regardless of my analysis or opinions, we rely on mechanical trading models to determine our market posture. Still, I follow the markets closely, and the market's consistently negative bias surprised me this past week.  That might be good though.  We worked-off a lot of the overbought condition and put things in place for a more natural Obama Inauguration Rally.

    How Bad Was 2008?  The chart on the right is from The Economist, and shows the distribution of US Stock Market Returns Since 1825.  One of the things it shows is that 2008 was the second-worst year of performance.

    So as awful as 2008's performance was, historically, remember that it ended with a 20% rally off the bottom to end the year. 

    The real question is whether you think the rally will last?  Is it a Bear-Market
    Rally sucker play, or a real opportunity to put some capital back to
    work?

    I predict big changes are coming (not hard to do with the economy where it is and a new President about to take office).  So, here are some data to help point the way.

    Here are a Few of the Posts I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Cover your eyes, then check-out these 2008 Year-End Returns for World Markets.(Bespoke)
    • US Unemployment Back to 1945 Levels; 2.6MM Jobs Lost in 2008. (Citywire)
    • Oxymoron? A relatively sane Elliott Wave market
      prediction for 2009. (Yelnick)
    • Bear Rally or Bull Market?  Are too many people too bullish too quickly? (Hulbert)
    • The Fed is Flooding the Markets with Cash. (Clusterstock)
    • WSJ's "The End of Wall Street" video series (Click to Watch)
    • The End of the Financial World As We Know It? (NYTimes Part 1 & Part 2)
    • Ironic that Satyam (which means Truth) didn't outsource Fraud, they did it themselves. (FT)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Putting tongues firmly in cheeks, Porn Industry seeks $5BB Federal Bailout. (CNN)
    • Obama Fighting for his Blackberry.  This may be a fight he loses. (TechDirt)
    • Why do Investment Swindles continue to work? (WSJ)
    • Can Risk Be Adequately Quantified? (Naked Capitalism)
    • This year China's
      Internet users will surpass the entire population of the U.S. (Kedrosky)
    • The Bull and Bear Cases for Hedge Funds. (Bull: Seeking Alpha and Bear: Yahoo Finance)
    • Balanced Commentary on the Middle East's Hundred Year War (Economist)
    • Funny list of "Stuff White People Like" – and I do like most of it. (Blog)

  • WSJ’s “End of Wall Street” Videos

    Explains how easy money led to the collapse of Wall Street's biggest firms.

    Chapter One: What Happened? In the first of this three-part series, Journal reporters explain how the housing bubble inflated and burst, and why easy money led to the collapse of Wall Street’s biggest financial institutions.

    Direct link for Chapter One.

    Chapter Two: Why Did it Happen? What was going through the minds of CEOs, corporate boards, fund managers and mortgage lenders as they created hard-to-understand derivatives Warren Buffett once called ‘weapons of financial mass destruction’.

    Direct link for Chapter Two.

    Chapter Three: What Happens Next? This final chapter of the crisis on Wall Street tells the story of the $700-billion bailout, as seen through a reporter’s eyes, and looks at what’s ahead for the global economy.

    Direct link for Chapter Three.