Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Conditioning Yourself to Take the Best Next Step

    090711 HMG at the YMCA 250

    Is How You Do Something … How You Do Everything?

    I'm beginning to think so.  To make the point, let me start with a brief story. 

    I was at the gym and getting pretty close to the end of my workout.

    Frankly, I was at a point where being done was more attractive than the option of doing additional exercise.

    Over time I've developed many habits and beliefs that focus on finding best next step or a way to do just a little bit more. So this time, I used reverse-counting to help me finish that workout strong.

    I started with 10 push-ups. I know I can do 10 push-ups, even at the end of a hard workout. Without putting my knees down, I can rest in plank position for a moment or two … then I do nine more push-ups. That has to be easier than 10, right? Then eight more … seven … six. You get the point.

    Each set is a little bit harder than the one before; but mentally I'm prepared for it, and can convince myself that I'm so much closer to the goal.

    So I get to three, and sweat is dripping off my nose, my arms are shaking, and my hips want to sway. Somehow knowing that there's only two more sets, then only one more, allows me to finish.

    That story could have been about creating profitable trading systems, developing a new database, or recovering from a set-back.  It's about finding a way, regardless of external circumstances.

    Finding a Way to Do Just a Little Bit More.

    There are many times that it seems easier to do nothing, or to give up. That's just not my nature. It's not in my "nurture" either.

    My father used to say that the secret to success was getting up. What he meant was that if someone knocked you down 10 times, then the secret to success was getting up 11 times. And if someone knocked you down another time, then the secret was to get up 12 times. There's a lot of truth in that.

    I laugh when I think of all the little things I do that condition me to take the best next step. Here are a few examples of small things that help define that mindset.

    • I never stop reading until I finish a chapter.
    • Also, when I play a strategy game on my iPhone, I never stop until I win.
    • And, when I play a strategy game that I'm good at, I never stop until I achieve a certain score. 

    It doesn't matter if I'm frustrated or tired.  I find a way.  Each, in its own small way, helps condition me to know that I can do anything I commit to.  Taking that a little further, regardless of what happens, my outcome depends most on what I choose to do.

    Sometimes that seems silly, or even a little bit OCD to me. Yet, it serves me.  There's a lot of freedom that comes with knowing that the game's not over until I say it is … or until I win. Likewise, it's comforting to know that there's always a best next step, or at least a different perspective that will create new opportunities and possibilities.

    Nike-just-do-it I to do that in business as well. We focus on the progress we're making, and what that makes possible, rather than how far we are from the ultimate goal. Why? Because as we continue to make progress, the things we shoot for are bigger and farther away. Focusing there would always show a shortfall. Obstacles and set-backs become the raw material for new growth, ideas and strategies.  The trick is getting back up, isn't it?

    Sometimes the best advice is simple. Nike got it right in their ad … Just Do It.

  • Conditioning Yourself to Take the Best Next Step

    090711 HMG at the YMCA 250

    Is How You Do Something … How You Do Everything?

    I'm beginning to think so.  To make the point, let me start with a brief story. 

    I was at the gym and getting pretty close to the end of my workout.

    Frankly, I was at a point where being done was more attractive than the option of doing additional exercise.

    Over time I've developed many habits and beliefs that focus on finding best next step or a way to do just a little bit more. So this time, I used reverse-counting to help me finish that workout strong.

    I started with 10 push-ups. I know I can do 10 push-ups, even at the end of a hard workout. Without putting my knees down, I can rest in plank position for a moment or two … then I do nine more push-ups. That has to be easier than 10, right? Then eight more … seven … six. You get the point.

    Each set is a little bit harder than the one before; but mentally I'm prepared for it, and can convince myself that I'm so much closer to the goal.

    So I get to three, and sweat is dripping off my nose, my arms are shaking, and my hips want to sway. Somehow knowing that there's only two more sets, then only one more, allows me to finish.

    That story could have been about creating profitable trading systems, developing a new database, or recovering from a set-back.  It's about finding a way, regardless of external circumstances.

    Finding a Way to Do Just a Little Bit More.

    There are many times that it seems easier to do nothing, or to give up. That's just not my nature. It's not in my "nurture" either.

    My father used to say that the secret to success was getting up. What he meant was that if someone knocked you down 10 times, then the secret to success was getting up 11 times. And if someone knocked you down another time, then the secret was to get up 12 times. There's a lot of truth in that.

    I laugh when I think of all the little things I do that condition me to take the best next step. Here are a few examples of small things that help define that mindset.

    • I never stop reading until I finish a chapter.
    • Also, when I play a strategy game on my iPhone, I never stop until I win.
    • And, when I play a strategy game that I'm good at, I never stop until I achieve a certain score. 

    It doesn't matter if I'm frustrated or tired.  I find a way.  Each, in its own small way, helps condition me to know that I can do anything I commit to.  Taking that a little further, regardless of what happens, my outcome depends most on what I choose to do.

    Sometimes that seems silly, or even a little bit OCD to me. Yet, it serves me.  There's a lot of freedom that comes with knowing that the game's not over until I say it is … or until I win. Likewise, it's comforting to know that there's always a best next step, or at least a different perspective that will create new opportunities and possibilities.

    Nike-just-do-it I to do that in business as well. We focus on the progress we're making, and what that makes possible, rather than how far we are from the ultimate goal. Why? Because as we continue to make progress, the things we shoot for are bigger and farther away. Focusing there would always show a shortfall. Obstacles and set-backs become the raw material for new growth, ideas and strategies.  The trick is getting back up, isn't it?

    Sometimes the best advice is simple. Nike got it right in their ad … Just Do It.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/19/09

    Goldman_Sachs_logoGoldman Sachs announced massive profits of almost $3.5 Billion this Quarter.  On one hand that is great.  On the other, does it make you wonder where and how they made that money? 

    On a related note, Bespoke notes that, in the first half of the year, Goldman set-aside over $11 Billion to compensate its employees.  Nice work if you can get it.

    The Stimulus Plan.

    The economy, and the mood about the economy, seem to be doing a little better. I give credit for the effort.  Though, I am watching spending and employment numbers to tell me more of the story.

    090719 Stimulus Cartoon - Stimulator 3000

    Some Market Charts.

    For the past few weeks, many people have been watching the potential head and shoulders pattern. Its failure to trigger caused many people to cover their short positions. This was probably the primary catalyst for the “Oops” trade that took the market back near its recent highs.

    090719 SP500 OOPs Trade

    Those recent highs are interesting to me for several reasons. First, they’ve held since early June. Second, and potentially more importantly, they may be part of a much bigger pattern forming on the major U.S. equity indices. 

    Here is a picture of the S&P 500 Index. Notice the potential inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern (marked in orange).  If it triggers (shown by the green neckline of resistance), and if it hits the measured target (shown by the purple arrows), then it is certainly worth watching.  Of course, that is a lot of “ifs”.

    090719 SP500 BottomingTrade

    Some Things to Watch.

    So, the upside is clear, take out the June highs and see if we get some buying volume. However, I can’t get excited, yet.  There are a number of things holding back my enthusiasm. Right off the top-of-my-head: jobs, spending, lack of volume, and the failure to trade above recent highs.

    However, another thing I’m watching is that recent moves up in the market were met with an increase in the VIX (instead of the expected inverse relationship).  Here is a picture from Marty Chenard’s chart service called StockTiming.com.

    090719 SP500 VIX Behavior

    Recently, it bothered me that the VIX failed to show a spike of fear when the market was going down. And now, the VIX is bothering me because it’s going up when the market goes up. So, either this is not a good time to follow the VIX for trading guidance, or the VIX is indicating that something unusual is happening in the markets.  Either way, it makes me cautious.  What about you?

    While I expected a short-term rally, I still believe that the markets are due for an intermediate-term move downwards. However, neither logic, intuition, nor economics are primary indicators. Price is the primary indicator; and it has been moving upwards.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Wall Street 2015: Has It Changed Forever? (Forbes)
    • Goldman Had Huge Profits – Why are Executives Selling? (Dealbook)
    • Intel Gives Upbeat Outlook as Sales Revive. (WSJ)
    • Dell Shares Dive as PC Market Still Looks Rough. (Technology Review)
    • McGraw-Hill’s Seeking a Buyer for BusinessWeek. (WSJ)
    • Ways Apple Is Extending Its Lead Via 3rd-Party iPhone Apps. (WSJ)
    • Help Is On the Way for Credit-Starved Small Businesses. (Forbes)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/19/09

    Goldman_Sachs_logoGoldman Sachs announced massive profits of almost $3.5 Billion this Quarter.  On one hand that is great.  On the other, does it make you wonder where and how they made that money? 

    On a related note, Bespoke notes that, in the first half of the year, Goldman set-aside over $11 Billion to compensate its employees.  Nice work if you can get it.

    The Stimulus Plan.

    The economy, and the mood about the economy, seem to be doing a little better. I give credit for the effort.  Though, I am watching spending and employment numbers to tell me more of the story.

    090719 Stimulus Cartoon - Stimulator 3000

    Some Market Charts.

    For the past few weeks, many people have been watching the potential head and shoulders pattern. Its failure to trigger caused many people to cover their short positions. This was probably the primary catalyst for the “Oops” trade that took the market back near its recent highs.

    090719 SP500 OOPs Trade

    Those recent highs are interesting to me for several reasons. First, they’ve held since early June. Second, and potentially more importantly, they may be part of a much bigger pattern forming on the major U.S. equity indices. 

    Here is a picture of the S&P 500 Index. Notice the potential inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern (marked in orange).  If it triggers (shown by the green neckline of resistance), and if it hits the measured target (shown by the purple arrows), then it is certainly worth watching.  Of course, that is a lot of “ifs”.

    090719 SP500 BottomingTrade

    Some Things to Watch.

    So, the upside is clear, take out the June highs and see if we get some buying volume. However, I can’t get excited, yet.  There are a number of things holding back my enthusiasm. Right off the top-of-my-head: jobs, spending, lack of volume, and the failure to trade above recent highs.

    However, another thing I’m watching is that recent moves up in the market were met with an increase in the VIX (instead of the expected inverse relationship).  Here is a picture from Marty Chenard’s chart service called StockTiming.com.

    090719 SP500 VIX Behavior

    Recently, it bothered me that the VIX failed to show a spike of fear when the market was going down. And now, the VIX is bothering me because it’s going up when the market goes up. So, either this is not a good time to follow the VIX for trading guidance, or the VIX is indicating that something unusual is happening in the markets.  Either way, it makes me cautious.  What about you?

    While I expected a short-term rally, I still believe that the markets are due for an intermediate-term move downwards. However, neither logic, intuition, nor economics are primary indicators. Price is the primary indicator; and it has been moving upwards.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Wall Street 2015: Has It Changed Forever? (Forbes)
    • Goldman Had Huge Profits – Why are Executives Selling? (Dealbook)
    • Intel Gives Upbeat Outlook as Sales Revive. (WSJ)
    • Dell Shares Dive as PC Market Still Looks Rough. (Technology Review)
    • McGraw-Hill’s Seeking a Buyer for BusinessWeek. (WSJ)
    • Ways Apple Is Extending Its Lead Via 3rd-Party iPhone Apps. (WSJ)
    • Help Is On the Way for Credit-Starved Small Businesses. (Forbes)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Impressions About the New iPhone

    Hello, my name is Howard; and I'm a gadget addict. This week I went out and upgraded to the new Apple iPhone 3GS, even though my 3G worked fine. I had to, though; didn't I?

    090712 iPhone impressions It's the fastest, most powerful iPhone yet. It has video, and my old phone didn't have video. It has a compass; and you know I need a compass. Okay, I don't need a compass; but apparently the new turn-by-turn mapping capability needs a compass to understand which direction you're turning (and that's pretty cool). It has voice control to dial the phone, play music, and otherwise avoid typing. And it has double the storage capacity, which I'm sure still won't be enough.

    Actually, I'm very happy with the new phone and the upgrade process. I connected it to my computer, and all the applications and settings from my prior version migrated all by themselves. Even the high score lists for games I play transferred. More importantly, the phone does everything I expected, and seems faster.

    And, of course, I no longer have iPhone envy. The fact that I waited a week after it came out to order mine took amazing willpower. I thought about it so many times that it was no longer worth it to wait. So Happy Birthday to me, a few weeks early.

    Joking aside, the iPhone has become an important business tool for me. I am more surprised about how much less I use my laptop, than I am about how much I use the iPhone.

    Even when I'm in a meeting, I have access to the internet. I can search Google.  Or even better, I can use Twitter or Facebook to crowd-source an answer. It's almost like being able to "Call a Friend" or "Ask the Audience" on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire".

    One of the features I like best, is being able to use my voice instead of typing. So, I can quickly look-up a contact by saying their name. It's surprising how many places voice control like this comes in handy. For example, Google has an iPhone application that allows you to search by speaking. So I could speak an address, and the Google map comes up. Or, I could say "stock price for Apple", and the current quote and chart comes up. Similarly, I use an application called Jott to verbally capture tasks, ideas, and to-do items. The service transcribes what I say and puts it into my task list. It's important because I'm now capturing things that used to slip through the cracks.

    I'll review some of the more helpful iPhone applications in a later post. In the meantime, if you don't have the new iPhone, I recommend you go check them out. It's a very fine piece of technology.

  • Impressions About the New iPhone

    Hello, my name is Howard; and I'm a gadget addict. This week I went out and upgraded to the new Apple iPhone 3GS, even though my 3G worked fine. I had to, though; didn't I?

    090712 iPhone impressions It's the fastest, most powerful iPhone yet. It has video, and my old phone didn't have video. It has a compass; and you know I need a compass. Okay, I don't need a compass; but apparently the new turn-by-turn mapping capability needs a compass to understand which direction you're turning (and that's pretty cool). It has voice control to dial the phone, play music, and otherwise avoid typing. And it has double the storage capacity, which I'm sure still won't be enough.

    Actually, I'm very happy with the new phone and the upgrade process. I connected it to my computer, and all the applications and settings from my prior version migrated all by themselves. Even the high score lists for games I play transferred. More importantly, the phone does everything I expected, and seems faster.

    And, of course, I no longer have iPhone envy. The fact that I waited a week after it came out to order mine took amazing willpower. I thought about it so many times that it was no longer worth it to wait. So Happy Birthday to me, a few weeks early.

    Joking aside, the iPhone has become an important business tool for me. I am more surprised about how much less I use my laptop, than I am about how much I use the iPhone.

    Even when I'm in a meeting, I have access to the internet. I can search Google.  Or even better, I can use Twitter or Facebook to crowd-source an answer. It's almost like being able to "Call a Friend" or "Ask the Audience" on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire".

    One of the features I like best, is being able to use my voice instead of typing. So, I can quickly look-up a contact by saying their name. It's surprising how many places voice control like this comes in handy. For example, Google has an iPhone application that allows you to search by speaking. So I could speak an address, and the Google map comes up. Or, I could say "stock price for Apple", and the current quote and chart comes up. Similarly, I use an application called Jott to verbally capture tasks, ideas, and to-do items. The service transcribes what I say and puts it into my task list. It's important because I'm now capturing things that used to slip through the cracks.

    I'll review some of the more helpful iPhone applications in a later post. In the meantime, if you don't have the new iPhone, I recommend you go check them out. It's a very fine piece of technology.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/12/09

    Obama told the G8 that the "World has Staved Off Economic Disaster." So, it's all good now.  You are safe to jump back in the pool.  If there was still risk, he couldn't have said that in front of world leaders, right?

    Is This the New Normal … Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?

    Here is a chart that shows how volatility has reduced recently.  Putting on my curmudgeon hat for a moment, I remember the old trader's adage that lack of volatility begets volatility.

    090711 Volatility is Down

    That chart whispers "beware the calm before the storm" to me.  Others may see a return to normal.  What do you think?

    A Look At the Markets.

    The markets have given back close to 25% of their recent gains in the last four weeks. In many respects that was a healthy move. The news has been bad enough that I expected a bigger and steeper downswing.

    Also, there's been a lot of talk about the potential of a head and shoulders top. But when you look at a composite of the five U.S. Equity Indices (shown in the bottom-half of the chart, below), we haven't broken the neckline, yet.

    In addition, the 200-day moving average (red line) continues to provide support. If we don't have a sustained break beneath this level, the 200-day moving average will act as support.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

    090711 SP500 and Composite

    With that said, sentiment is getting more bearish, and the move down
    has not created a spike in the VIX. So, again, there are clues that lead me to suspect that we might be witnessing the calm
    before the storm.  Earnings Season is starting; and a move down would trigger the head-and-shoulders topping pattern and the 200-day moving average would become overhead resistance.  And fear would increase … you get the picture.

    Sometimes, the right picture can be worth a thousand words.

    Dow's Dead-Cat Bounce from GuidePostings

    So short-term, a bounce wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction still seems likely.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Businessman Pays $2.1 million for Lunch with Buffet; Banks More (DigitalJournal)
    • 11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours. (USNews)
    • Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends. (Bloomberg)
    • The Dollar's role in the global economy is Safe From the Yuan, for Now (WSJ)
    • Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Arrested Stealing Secret Trading Codes. (StreetInsider)
    • Citadel Sues Firm Linked to Alleged Goldman Software Theft. (FinAlternatives)
    • Mark Cuban on Business Models: Succeed with Free, Die by Free. (BlogMaverick)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/12/09

    Obama told the G8 that the "World has Staved Off Economic Disaster." So, it's all good now.  You are safe to jump back in the pool.  If there was still risk, he couldn't have said that in front of world leaders, right?

    Is This the New Normal … Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?

    Here is a chart that shows how volatility has reduced recently.  Putting on my curmudgeon hat for a moment, I remember the old trader's adage that lack of volatility begets volatility.

    090711 Volatility is Down

    That chart whispers "beware the calm before the storm" to me.  Others may see a return to normal.  What do you think?

    A Look At the Markets.

    The markets have given back close to 25% of their recent gains in the last four weeks. In many respects that was a healthy move. The news has been bad enough that I expected a bigger and steeper downswing.

    Also, there's been a lot of talk about the potential of a head and shoulders top. But when you look at a composite of the five U.S. Equity Indices (shown in the bottom-half of the chart, below), we haven't broken the neckline, yet.

    In addition, the 200-day moving average (red line) continues to provide support. If we don't have a sustained break beneath this level, the 200-day moving average will act as support.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

    090711 SP500 and Composite

    With that said, sentiment is getting more bearish, and the move down
    has not created a spike in the VIX. So, again, there are clues that lead me to suspect that we might be witnessing the calm
    before the storm.  Earnings Season is starting; and a move down would trigger the head-and-shoulders topping pattern and the 200-day moving average would become overhead resistance.  And fear would increase … you get the picture.

    Sometimes, the right picture can be worth a thousand words.

    Dow's Dead-Cat Bounce from GuidePostings

    So short-term, a bounce wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction still seems likely.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Businessman Pays $2.1 million for Lunch with Buffet; Banks More (DigitalJournal)
    • 11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours. (USNews)
    • Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends. (Bloomberg)
    • The Dollar's role in the global economy is Safe From the Yuan, for Now (WSJ)
    • Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Arrested Stealing Secret Trading Codes. (StreetInsider)
    • Citadel Sues Firm Linked to Alleged Goldman Software Theft. (FinAlternatives)
    • Mark Cuban on Business Models: Succeed with Free, Die by Free. (BlogMaverick)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Here’s a Movie Worth Seeing

    What do you do when your wife and kids are out of town, and you find yourself alone?

    Besides catching-up on projects that I somehow avoided until now, I like to watch movies.

    TiVo now links to Netflix,
    and provides an instant viewing option. Upon opening that folder on the DVR, I saw a
    bunch of things I normally wouldn't choose to watch on my own. One of them
    was a movie called Saint Ralph.  And I chose to watch it anyway.

    My Dad had an "interesting" belief. He didn't watch scary or negative movies, because he felt that life was enough of a challenge on its own … and it was better to find things that raised our spirits. Well, I inherited that from him.

    Don't get me wrong, I still I love drama and thrillers. But in the absence of compelling circumstances, I tend to prefer positive stories.

    090711 Saint Ralph Movie Poster So a plot about a down-on-his luck Catholic High School student whose father is dead and whose mother is in a coma, doesn't sound like my type of movie. 

    But Saint Ralph was my type of movie.  It made me think and I enjoyed it.  The movie was lighter, funnier, and better than I expected.

    On one level, it's a coming-of-age story about perseverance and faith through uncertain times. On another level, it's a well-written comedy about a quirky 14-year-old boy who gets it in his head that the only way to
    save his mother is through a miracle (and the miracle he thinks will
    save her … is for him to win the Boston Marathon).

    It is a movie that asks, if you're going to dream for something, why not dream for miracles?

    Hope you enjoy it.

    Here's a link to the trailer for Saint Ralph. 

    Here's a link to find it at Netflix.

  • Here’s a Movie Worth Seeing

    What do you do when your wife and kids are out of town, and you find yourself alone?

    Besides catching-up on projects that I somehow avoided until now, I like to watch movies.

    TiVo now links to Netflix,
    and provides an instant viewing option. Upon opening that folder on the DVR, I saw a
    bunch of things I normally wouldn't choose to watch on my own. One of them
    was a movie called Saint Ralph.  And I chose to watch it anyway.

    My Dad had an "interesting" belief. He didn't watch scary or negative movies, because he felt that life was enough of a challenge on its own … and it was better to find things that raised our spirits. Well, I inherited that from him.

    Don't get me wrong, I still I love drama and thrillers. But in the absence of compelling circumstances, I tend to prefer positive stories.

    090711 Saint Ralph Movie Poster So a plot about a down-on-his luck Catholic High School student whose father is dead and whose mother is in a coma, doesn't sound like my type of movie. 

    But Saint Ralph was my type of movie.  It made me think and I enjoyed it.  The movie was lighter, funnier, and better than I expected.

    On one level, it's a coming-of-age story about perseverance and faith through uncertain times. On another level, it's a well-written comedy about a quirky 14-year-old boy who gets it in his head that the only way to
    save his mother is through a miracle (and the miracle he thinks will
    save her … is for him to win the Boston Marathon).

    It is a movie that asks, if you're going to dream for something, why not dream for miracles?

    Hope you enjoy it.

    Here's a link to the trailer for Saint Ralph. 

    Here's a link to find it at Netflix.