Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Tap the Knowledge of People in Your Network

    Have you ever had a question that you just didn't know who to ask? There's a new website designed to help you. 

    Aardvark is a new kind of tool that lets you tap into the knowledge and experience of friends and friends-of-friends.  Think of it as a crowd-sourced (or human powered) knowledge engine. However, instead of just storing the answers, it tries to figure-out who to ask your question to in your network of contacts.

    100109 Aardvark Answers

    Send Aardvark a question (from the web, email, Twitter, IM, or iPhone) and you’ll get a quick, helpful response.

    I was a little skeptical; however, when I tried it, I got good answers very quickly. Finally, a business use for social networks (other than marketing).

    I recommend that you give it a try.

    Other Resources.

  • Tap the Knowledge of People in Your Network

    Have you ever had a question that you just didn't know who to ask? There's a new website designed to help you. 

    Aardvark is a new kind of tool that lets you tap into the knowledge and experience of friends and friends-of-friends.  Think of it as a crowd-sourced (or human powered) knowledge engine. However, instead of just storing the answers, it tries to figure-out who to ask your question to in your network of contacts.

    100109 Aardvark Answers

    Send Aardvark a question (from the web, email, Twitter, IM, or iPhone) and you’ll get a quick, helpful response.

    I was a little skeptical; however, when I tried it, I got good answers very quickly. Finally, a business use for social networks (other than marketing).

    I recommend that you give it a try.

    Other Resources.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/03/10

    The rally continues.

    Individual Investors Enter the New Year with Confidence.

    The weekly sentiment survey done by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) measures the percentage of individual investors (who take the survey) that are bullish, neutral and bearish.

    The chart below shows that retail investors are getting quite confident and that the percent of bearish investors is unusually low.  While that sounds positive, typically, this is a contrary indicator.  Said a different way, turning points often happen at confidence extremes.  Consequently, traders watch for bearish moves to happen at this level of bullish sentiment.

     091231 Bears Running for the Exits

    Consensus in the marketplace is rare.  If everyone truly believed the same thing, no one would take the other side of your trade.  However, when investors behave as a herd, it is usually because they are emotional about something. And, as we know, greed and fear are the most prevalent emotions in the market.

    • Major market tops are typically accompanied by extreme levels of bullish euphoria.  The crowd grows frenzied with greed — its enthusiastic lust makes stocks attractive at any price.
    • Major market bottoms are characterized by widespread pessimism and despair.  Here, a fear-induced panic makes most issues less attractive — regardless of price or value.

    Contrarian analysis, of course, is based on the simple notion that the majority is rarely right about the stock market's direction, especially at market turning points.

    Do Headlines Signal the End of Trends?

    Likewise, conventional wisdom holds that magazine cover stories are contrary indicators – by the time a success or failure reaches the cover page of a major publication, the story is so well known as to be completely reflected in the market.  While simplistic, the magazine cover indicator now has the support of recent academic research. This research found that cover story headlines on Business Week, Fortune and Forbes tended to indicate that the mood (bullish or bearish) of the story was about to change in the market.  Moreover, when an economic issue makes the cover of a general market publication (like Time), it's guaranteed to be already very late in the game.

    Consequently, I hear a lot of traders joke that Time Magazine's selection of Ben Bernanke as their "Person of the Year" will be the straw that breaks the bull-market's back.

    100103 Time Person of the Year


    An Old Pro Summarizes the Year for Traders.

    Here is a brief interview with Art Cashin, the director of floor operations for UBS, and a frequent CNBC commentator.  He is an old pro who does a nice job explaining what happened this past year and providing some perspective.

    For more video from Art, click here.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/03/10

    The rally continues.

    Individual Investors Enter the New Year with Confidence.

    The weekly sentiment survey done by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) measures the percentage of individual investors (who take the survey) that are bullish, neutral and bearish.

    The chart below shows that retail investors are getting quite confident and that the percent of bearish investors is unusually low.  While that sounds positive, typically, this is a contrary indicator.  Said a different way, turning points often happen at confidence extremes.  Consequently, traders watch for bearish moves to happen at this level of bullish sentiment.

     091231 Bears Running for the Exits

    Consensus in the marketplace is rare.  If everyone truly believed the same thing, no one would take the other side of your trade.  However, when investors behave as a herd, it is usually because they are emotional about something. And, as we know, greed and fear are the most prevalent emotions in the market.

    • Major market tops are typically accompanied by extreme levels of bullish euphoria.  The crowd grows frenzied with greed — its enthusiastic lust makes stocks attractive at any price.
    • Major market bottoms are characterized by widespread pessimism and despair.  Here, a fear-induced panic makes most issues less attractive — regardless of price or value.

    Contrarian analysis, of course, is based on the simple notion that the majority is rarely right about the stock market's direction, especially at market turning points.

    Do Headlines Signal the End of Trends?

    Likewise, conventional wisdom holds that magazine cover stories are contrary indicators – by the time a success or failure reaches the cover page of a major publication, the story is so well known as to be completely reflected in the market.  While simplistic, the magazine cover indicator now has the support of recent academic research. This research found that cover story headlines on Business Week, Fortune and Forbes tended to indicate that the mood (bullish or bearish) of the story was about to change in the market.  Moreover, when an economic issue makes the cover of a general market publication (like Time), it's guaranteed to be already very late in the game.

    Consequently, I hear a lot of traders joke that Time Magazine's selection of Ben Bernanke as their "Person of the Year" will be the straw that breaks the bull-market's back.

    100103 Time Person of the Year


    An Old Pro Summarizes the Year for Traders.

    Here is a brief interview with Art Cashin, the director of floor operations for UBS, and a frequent CNBC commentator.  He is an old pro who does a nice job explaining what happened this past year and providing some perspective.

    For more video from Art, click here.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Past Performance Doesn’t Limit the Future

    How will history view the past decade?

    091231 Summing-Up the Decade

    In my holiday greeting, this year, I chose the phrase: "I hope that you are grateful for the things that are great in your life, that you choose what you can use from the things weren't great … and that you invest those lessons in your future."

    We can learn from history, so we don't have to repeat it (unless we choose to).

    For Your New Year, Here is an Old Irish Blessing.

    Here's to the bright New Year,

    And a fond farewell to the old;

    Here's to the things that are yet to come,

    And to the memories that we hold.

    May God be with you and bless you.

    May the best of this year be the worst of the next.

    May you be poor in misfortune, rich in blessings.

    May you know nothing but happiness.

    From this day forward …

    Happy New Year!

  • Past Performance Doesn’t Limit the Future

    How will history view the past decade?

    091231 Summing-Up the Decade

    In my holiday greeting, this year, I chose the phrase: "I hope that you are grateful for the things that are great in your life, that you choose what you can use from the things weren't great … and that you invest those lessons in your future."

    We can learn from history, so we don't have to repeat it (unless we choose to).

    For Your New Year, Here is an Old Irish Blessing.

    Here's to the bright New Year,

    And a fond farewell to the old;

    Here's to the things that are yet to come,

    And to the memories that we hold.

    May God be with you and bless you.

    May the best of this year be the worst of the next.

    May you be poor in misfortune, rich in blessings.

    May you know nothing but happiness.

    From this day forward …

    Happy New Year!

  • A Data Visualization of the Past Decade

    Here is a clever way to capture a lot of information.  It also seems like a
    good technique to try with personal or business information … or
    (with a little modification) even to use as a planning tool.

    You can click the image to get the full-size version.

    091231 Decade in Pictures

    From the NYTimes.

  • A Data Visualization of the Past Decade

    Here is a clever way to capture a lot of information.  It also seems like a
    good technique to try with personal or business information … or
    (with a little modification) even to use as a planning tool.

    You can click the image to get the full-size version.

    091231 Decade in Pictures

    From the NYTimes.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/09

    Since I'm spending the holidays in Asia, I thought I'd share a few lighter things this week.

    First up is the Elf-Yourself site from JibJab.  And my wife says I can't dance.

    Send your own ElfYourself eCards

    Click here to make one yourself.

    Second, here is something I look forward to each year.  Uncle Jay sings the year in review.

    Market Commentary.

    At the end of each year, the big financial media outlets typically conduct roundtables to get outlooks from key players in the financial markets.  Over the past few years, the individuals that run the best financial blogs and websites have become key players in their own rights, and their opinions are highly regarded by millions of loyal readers.  This year, Bespoke asked twelve popular financial blogs/websites to respond to the same 25 questions regarding their 2010 outlooks as well as their take on 2009. 

     091226 Bespoke Roundtable

    The responses were thought-provoking, and hopefully they will help you form your opinions on what is to come for financial markets in the year ahead. 

    Best Wishes for a happy holiday season and for a prosperous New Year.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/09

    Since I'm spending the holidays in Asia, I thought I'd share a few lighter things this week.

    First up is the Elf-Yourself site from JibJab.  And my wife says I can't dance.

    Send your own ElfYourself eCards

    Click here to make one yourself.

    Second, here is something I look forward to each year.  Uncle Jay sings the year in review.

    Market Commentary.

    At the end of each year, the big financial media outlets typically conduct roundtables to get outlooks from key players in the financial markets.  Over the past few years, the individuals that run the best financial blogs and websites have become key players in their own rights, and their opinions are highly regarded by millions of loyal readers.  This year, Bespoke asked twelve popular financial blogs/websites to respond to the same 25 questions regarding their 2010 outlooks as well as their take on 2009. 

     091226 Bespoke Roundtable

    The responses were thought-provoking, and hopefully they will help you form your opinions on what is to come for financial markets in the year ahead. 

    Best Wishes for a happy holiday season and for a prosperous New Year.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week