Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Ted Talk About the Building Blocks of Business Success: Autonomy, Mastery & Purpose

    This video provides a peek into the science of human motivation.

    There is a mismatch between what science knows and what business
    does.

    And what's alarming here is that our business operating system —
    think of the set of assumptions and protocols beneath our businesses,
    how we motivate people, how we apply our human resources — it's built
    entirely around these extrinsic motivators, around carrots and sticks.
    That's actually fine for many kinds of 20th century tasks. But for 21st
    century tasks, that mechanistic, reward-and-punishment approach doesn't
    work, often doesn't work, and often does harm
    .

    Here is the direct link to the video on Ted's site.

    Here is an excerpt from the talk.

    Too many organizations are making their decisions, their policies about talent and people, based on assumptions that are outdated, unexamined, and rooted more in folklore than in science. And if we really want to get out of this economic mess, and if we really want high performance on those definitional tasks of the 21st century, the solution is not to do more of the wrong things. To entice people with a sweeter carrot, or threaten them with a sharper stick. We need a whole new approach.

    And the good news about all of this is that the scientists who've been studying motivation have given us this new approach. It's an approach built much more around intrinsic motivation. Around the desire to do things because they matter, because we like it, because they're interesting, because they are part of something important. And to my mind, that new operating system for our businesses revolves around three elements: autonomy, mastery and purpose.

    • Autonomy, the urge to direct our own lives.
    • Mastery, the desire to get better and better at something that matters.
    • Purpose, the yearning to do what we do in the service of something larger than ourselves.

    These are the building blocks of an entirely new operating system for our businesses.

  • Ted Talk About the Building Blocks of Business Success: Autonomy, Mastery & Purpose

    This video provides a peek into the science of human motivation.

    There is a mismatch between what science knows and what business
    does.

    And what's alarming here is that our business operating system —
    think of the set of assumptions and protocols beneath our businesses,
    how we motivate people, how we apply our human resources — it's built
    entirely around these extrinsic motivators, around carrots and sticks.
    That's actually fine for many kinds of 20th century tasks. But for 21st
    century tasks, that mechanistic, reward-and-punishment approach doesn't
    work, often doesn't work, and often does harm
    .

    Here is the direct link to the video on Ted's site.

    Here is an excerpt from the talk.

    Too many organizations are making their decisions, their policies about talent and people, based on assumptions that are outdated, unexamined, and rooted more in folklore than in science. And if we really want to get out of this economic mess, and if we really want high performance on those definitional tasks of the 21st century, the solution is not to do more of the wrong things. To entice people with a sweeter carrot, or threaten them with a sharper stick. We need a whole new approach.

    And the good news about all of this is that the scientists who've been studying motivation have given us this new approach. It's an approach built much more around intrinsic motivation. Around the desire to do things because they matter, because we like it, because they're interesting, because they are part of something important. And to my mind, that new operating system for our businesses revolves around three elements: autonomy, mastery and purpose.

    • Autonomy, the urge to direct our own lives.
    • Mastery, the desire to get better and better at something that matters.
    • Purpose, the yearning to do what we do in the service of something larger than ourselves.

    These are the building blocks of an entirely new operating system for our businesses.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/31/10

    We Do Live In Interesting Times.

    The markets pulled-back a little last week.  To be fair, the correction was small in comparison to the size of the rally since last March.  In many cases where the recent trend has been bullish for so long, people use this type of weakness to add to positions.  So, an oversold-rally would make sense here.

    However, some traders have doubts about the health of the market. 

    There is a fear that things may not be what they seem.  For example, the GDP number came in higher than expected, but still resulted in selling.  OK, GDP didn't tell us useful things (this time) because the better than expected number was the result of accounting and statistics, rather than real economic growth.  Traders saw through that, and also see that there are still troubling data points coming in … like that Durable Goods Orders and Weekly Unemployment Claims were both weaker than
    expected; and Consumer Spending continues to decline.  Still, the Markets sold "good news" again last week.  And even
    though the moves weren't violent or extended, I take that as a bearish
    indicator.

    Is It Possible That the Market is Still in a Down-Trend?

    Right now, the issue is whether price can get back above the down-trend line (marked by the red arrow) that started in October of 2007. 

    100131 SP500 Down-Trend Line

    Is that down-trend line really valid?  It will be if price fails to rally here.

    What's Causing the Market to Wobble?

    As you examine the markets, it is easy to become near-sighted.  By that I mean that it is easy to look at the ups and the downs, and to assign a cause based on what's happening in America (for example, the crisis of faith in Bernanke, Geithner, or even a jobless recovery).  However, it is harder to believe that any of those issues is the real cause after you look at the next chart (or collection of charts).

    How Can The Economies Of This
    Many Countries React the Same?

    A quick glance around the globe shows remarkably similar performance in many markets.

    It brings up two questions:

    1. Are each of these countries really doing the same things right and wrong?
    2. Are world-wide expectations and responses really this similar?
    100131 World Markets Strangely Synched

    To get a closer look for yourself, here is a link to the charts.  That brings up a third question: What's really causing the markets to behave so similarly?

    HBR Shows that Countries Did Deal With the Crisis Differently.

    The economic crisis will influence business long into recovery.  This Harvard Business Review visualization puts various bailout and stimulus programs in perspective. Calculating these interventions as percentages of GDP helps identify which economies will be stressed and which will have the resources to bounce back.

    HBR Map to Healthy and Ailing Markets

    Is This Time Different?

    Lots of people are reading Reinhart & Rogoff's book, This Time is Different. It examines the trend towards public debt that balloons in
    response to financial crises. Here is an excerpt from PIMCO's summary of the book:

    1. The true legacy of banking crises is greater public indebtedness, far beyond
      the direct headline costs of bailout packages. On average a country’s
      outstanding debt nearly doubles within three years following the crisis.

    2. The aftermath of banking crises is associated with an average increase of
      seven percentage points in the unemployment rate, which remains elevated for
      five years.

    3. Once a country’s public debt exceeds 90% of GDP, its economic growth rate
      slows by 1%.

    These examples tend to confirm that banking crises are
    followed by a de-leveraging of the private sector accompanied by a substitution
    and escalation of government debt, which in turn slows economic growth and
    (perhaps) lowers returns on investment and financial assets.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • The Ups & Downs of Obama's 1st Year. How Did He Do? (CNN)
    • Did the State of the Union Address Actually Change Anyone's Mind? (Slate)
    • IMF Sharply Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast in Developing Countries. (Reuters)
    • Is the Worst Yet to Come in VC? The Strong Will Survive. (WSJ)
    • AT&T Reports 2.7MM New Wireless Users & is iPad's Sole US Data Carrier. (Forbes)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • The Pope and Social Media: Give Us This Day Thy Daily Post. (NPR)
    • How Technology Enhances Collaboration. (Forbes)
    • How the U.S. Enabled the Chinese Hacking of Google. (CNN)
    • U.S. Says Free Access to Internet is a Foreign-Policy Priority. (ZDNet)
    • Will There be iLust for the Apple's New iPad? (Forbes)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/31/10

    We Do Live In Interesting Times.

    The markets pulled-back a little last week.  To be fair, the correction was small in comparison to the size of the rally since last March.  In many cases where the recent trend has been bullish for so long, people use this type of weakness to add to positions.  So, an oversold-rally would make sense here.

    However, some traders have doubts about the health of the market. 

    There is a fear that things may not be what they seem.  For example, the GDP number came in higher than expected, but still resulted in selling.  OK, GDP didn't tell us useful things (this time) because the better than expected number was the result of accounting and statistics, rather than real economic growth.  Traders saw through that, and also see that there are still troubling data points coming in … like that Durable Goods Orders and Weekly Unemployment Claims were both weaker than
    expected; and Consumer Spending continues to decline.  Still, the Markets sold "good news" again last week.  And even
    though the moves weren't violent or extended, I take that as a bearish
    indicator.

    Is It Possible That the Market is Still in a Down-Trend?

    Right now, the issue is whether price can get back above the down-trend line (marked by the red arrow) that started in October of 2007. 

    100131 SP500 Down-Trend Line

    Is that down-trend line really valid?  It will be if price fails to rally here.

    What's Causing the Market to Wobble?

    As you examine the markets, it is easy to become near-sighted.  By that I mean that it is easy to look at the ups and the downs, and to assign a cause based on what's happening in America (for example, the crisis of faith in Bernanke, Geithner, or even a jobless recovery).  However, it is harder to believe that any of those issues is the real cause after you look at the next chart (or collection of charts).

    How Can The Economies Of This
    Many Countries React the Same?

    A quick glance around the globe shows remarkably similar performance in many markets.

    It brings up two questions:

    1. Are each of these countries really doing the same things right and wrong?
    2. Are world-wide expectations and responses really this similar?
    100131 World Markets Strangely Synched

    To get a closer look for yourself, here is a link to the charts.  That brings up a third question: What's really causing the markets to behave so similarly?

    HBR Shows that Countries Did Deal With the Crisis Differently.

    The economic crisis will influence business long into recovery.  This Harvard Business Review visualization puts various bailout and stimulus programs in perspective. Calculating these interventions as percentages of GDP helps identify which economies will be stressed and which will have the resources to bounce back.

    HBR Map to Healthy and Ailing Markets

    Is This Time Different?

    Lots of people are reading Reinhart & Rogoff's book, This Time is Different. It examines the trend towards public debt that balloons in
    response to financial crises. Here is an excerpt from PIMCO's summary of the book:

    1. The true legacy of banking crises is greater public indebtedness, far beyond
      the direct headline costs of bailout packages. On average a country’s
      outstanding debt nearly doubles within three years following the crisis.

    2. The aftermath of banking crises is associated with an average increase of
      seven percentage points in the unemployment rate, which remains elevated for
      five years.

    3. Once a country’s public debt exceeds 90% of GDP, its economic growth rate
      slows by 1%.

    These examples tend to confirm that banking crises are
    followed by a de-leveraging of the private sector accompanied by a substitution
    and escalation of government debt, which in turn slows economic growth and
    (perhaps) lowers returns on investment and financial assets.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • The Ups & Downs of Obama's 1st Year. How Did He Do? (CNN)
    • Did the State of the Union Address Actually Change Anyone's Mind? (Slate)
    • IMF Sharply Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast in Developing Countries. (Reuters)
    • Is the Worst Yet to Come in VC? The Strong Will Survive. (WSJ)
    • AT&T Reports 2.7MM New Wireless Users & is iPad's Sole US Data Carrier. (Forbes)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • The Pope and Social Media: Give Us This Day Thy Daily Post. (NPR)
    • How Technology Enhances Collaboration. (Forbes)
    • How the U.S. Enabled the Chinese Hacking of Google. (CNN)
    • U.S. Says Free Access to Internet is a Foreign-Policy Priority. (ZDNet)
    • Will There be iLust for the Apple's New iPad? (Forbes)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • Virtual PCs

    Some technology is innovative and impressive, but doesn't serve a business need.  For example, you keep hearing about Cloud Computing. Yet, how likely is it that you're going to
    allow your business to put a bunch of your proprietary data out on the net
    anytime soon?

    I'm not saying bad things about clouds, I'm just saying that there are a number of other recent advances that are interesting and perhaps more relevant.  Some of these advances promise to save time and money while
    making the computer environment safer and more robust.  An example is the class of solutions that take advantage of shared resources (like database clustering and virtualizing
    servers and desktops).

    100124 VMware Logo For us, one of the biggest changes in information technology, recently, has been the increasing use of virtualization.

    What is Virtualization?

    Several years ago, I needed to purchase a big and powerful computer to run certain in-depth tests. Yet, only a small percent of the tests we run require a machine that big. Some of our other testing took a long time, but didn't require many of the computer's resources. In both cases, we were dramatically under-using the machine a majority of the time.

    With virtualization, you can take a big powerful machine and divide it into smaller less powerful machines when you need to. 

    That means you can use all of the machine's capacity for one purpose some of the time. While other times, you can load a configuration optimized for a different type of test, which lets you create more virtual machines.

    So, if you are running a test that might take one computer 24 hours to run (but didn't use much of the computer's processing power), you could use virtualization to split the computer into four virtual computers.  The result is that it might only take you six or seven hours to complete the same task.

    That is a simple example, but hopefully it gives you an idea of what is possible.

    There are two main players in this space, Microsoft and VMware.

    Virtual PCs Move to the Desktop.100124 Virtual PC Images

    That same technology has moved to the desktop.

    For example, Windows 7 comes with Microsoft's Virtual PC. This makes it easy for you to create a clone of the computer (running inside your computer) but that doesn't affect the primary operating system.

    You can use a different operating system in the Virtual PC. So, even
    though you might use Windows 7, you could setup the Virtual PC to run
    with Windows XP or even Linux (for compatibility or testing reasons).

    Another use of a Virtual PC is as a "sandbox" that lets you install and try software that you wouldn't otherwise try on your main computer.

    For example, Microsoft just came-out with a beta version of its Office 2010 product.  I asked some of our IT staff if I should install it on my PC to try.  When they stopped laughing at me, the answer was "absolutely not", because it might hang, damage something or create the need to re-install the computer.  A Virtual PC, however, is a great place to try something like that without risking your primary work environment.

    Give it a try.

    Resources:

  • Virtual PCs

    Some technology is innovative and impressive, but doesn't serve a business need.  For example, you keep hearing about Cloud Computing. Yet, how likely is it that you're going to
    allow your business to put a bunch of your proprietary data out on the net
    anytime soon?

    I'm not saying bad things about clouds, I'm just saying that there are a number of other recent advances that are interesting and perhaps more relevant.  Some of these advances promise to save time and money while
    making the computer environment safer and more robust.  An example is the class of solutions that take advantage of shared resources (like database clustering and virtualizing
    servers and desktops).

    100124 VMware Logo For us, one of the biggest changes in information technology, recently, has been the increasing use of virtualization.

    What is Virtualization?

    Several years ago, I needed to purchase a big and powerful computer to run certain in-depth tests. Yet, only a small percent of the tests we run require a machine that big. Some of our other testing took a long time, but didn't require many of the computer's resources. In both cases, we were dramatically under-using the machine a majority of the time.

    With virtualization, you can take a big powerful machine and divide it into smaller less powerful machines when you need to. 

    That means you can use all of the machine's capacity for one purpose some of the time. While other times, you can load a configuration optimized for a different type of test, which lets you create more virtual machines.

    So, if you are running a test that might take one computer 24 hours to run (but didn't use much of the computer's processing power), you could use virtualization to split the computer into four virtual computers.  The result is that it might only take you six or seven hours to complete the same task.

    That is a simple example, but hopefully it gives you an idea of what is possible.

    There are two main players in this space, Microsoft and VMware.

    Virtual PCs Move to the Desktop.100124 Virtual PC Images

    That same technology has moved to the desktop.

    For example, Windows 7 comes with Microsoft's Virtual PC. This makes it easy for you to create a clone of the computer (running inside your computer) but that doesn't affect the primary operating system.

    You can use a different operating system in the Virtual PC. So, even
    though you might use Windows 7, you could setup the Virtual PC to run
    with Windows XP or even Linux (for compatibility or testing reasons).

    Another use of a Virtual PC is as a "sandbox" that lets you install and try software that you wouldn't otherwise try on your main computer.

    For example, Microsoft just came-out with a beta version of its Office 2010 product.  I asked some of our IT staff if I should install it on my PC to try.  When they stopped laughing at me, the answer was "absolutely not", because it might hang, damage something or create the need to re-install the computer.  A Virtual PC, however, is a great place to try something like that without risking your primary work environment.

    Give it a try.

    Resources:

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/24/10

    Last week several news items caught my eye as potential "sign-of-the-times" indicators.   With markets still near recovery highs, the amount of fear and loathing is surprising.  Here are some examples.

    1. Bernanke's 2nd term confirmation ran into opposition. The magazine cover curse strikes again.
    2. Kennedy's Senate seat went to a Republican.This was not the change Dems hoped for.
    3. Harley-Davidson posted its first loss in 16 years.  Also,
    4. Google was down even though its profit quintupled. Selling good news is bearish in my book.

    100124 Political Cartoon - It's the Economy Stupid

    Let's Look at the Market.

    For
    a number of weeks, the rally was holding-up even though there were a
    number of signs indicating underlying weakness.  That means buyers
    bought the dip.

    Well, last week price finally broke beneath the trend-line from the
    March lows.  It is a bearish sign, unless price can get back above the
    trend-line quickly.

     100124 SP500 Support Level

    Currently,
    price is still above the support level marked by the orange
    dashed-line.  A move beneath this level would be another bearish sign.

    The next question is whether the move will find the selling power that has been so noticeably absent during the rally?

    Perhaps A Little Bit of Fear Will Be a Good Thing for Trading Volume.

    The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often thought of as the market's fear gauge, capped its biggest three-day run-up since February 2007.  Recently (until last week) it was more of a complacency gauge.  Here is a chart showing the steady decline, and then the surge.

    100124 Biggest VIX Surge Since 2007

    So, short-term, we'll see if that shakes-out some Bulls who are questioning their conviction.

    Rembember, however, that market rallies often happen after a fear spike subsides.  So if we don't get selling volume, the next question is whether Bulls will buy the dip?

    At this point I am watching the VIX, because while the spike of fear was big … it came when the VIX was at an extended low.  Fear and Greed (or Bears and Bulls) collide, here, as a result of the conflict between the short and longer term views of the market.  Which side wins will likely have big consequences, because a move higher in the VIX will likely coincide with a bigger move down in the markets.

    The U.S. Dollar might also provide some clues to market direction.  The Dollar and equity markets often move opposite each other.  Currency speculators increased bets against the Dollar in the latest week, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of net short positions in the dollar rose to $3.12 billion in the week ending Jan. 19, from a net short position of $2.7 billion the previous week, according to Reuters calculations

    The Markets Are Oversold in the Short-Term.

    This chart shows the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are trading above their 10-day moving average (in other words, what percent are in an up-trend on a short-term basis?).  Right now, less than 10% are.

    100124 Oversold Reading

    As you can see, we don't get extreme readings like this often … and when we do, the market tends to bounce.  To see an interactive version of this chart with an overlay of the S&P 500 Index (so you can see how often the overbought and oversold readings work) click here.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/24/10

    Last week several news items caught my eye as potential "sign-of-the-times" indicators.   With markets still near recovery highs, the amount of fear and loathing is surprising.  Here are some examples.

    1. Bernanke's 2nd term confirmation ran into opposition. The magazine cover curse strikes again.
    2. Kennedy's Senate seat went to a Republican.This was not the change Dems hoped for.
    3. Harley-Davidson posted its first loss in 16 years.  Also,
    4. Google was down even though its profit quintupled. Selling good news is bearish in my book.

    100124 Political Cartoon - It's the Economy Stupid

    Let's Look at the Market.

    For
    a number of weeks, the rally was holding-up even though there were a
    number of signs indicating underlying weakness.  That means buyers
    bought the dip.

    Well, last week price finally broke beneath the trend-line from the
    March lows.  It is a bearish sign, unless price can get back above the
    trend-line quickly.

     100124 SP500 Support Level

    Currently,
    price is still above the support level marked by the orange
    dashed-line.  A move beneath this level would be another bearish sign.

    The next question is whether the move will find the selling power that has been so noticeably absent during the rally?

    Perhaps A Little Bit of Fear Will Be a Good Thing for Trading Volume.

    The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often thought of as the market's fear gauge, capped its biggest three-day run-up since February 2007.  Recently (until last week) it was more of a complacency gauge.  Here is a chart showing the steady decline, and then the surge.

    100124 Biggest VIX Surge Since 2007

    So, short-term, we'll see if that shakes-out some Bulls who are questioning their conviction.

    Rembember, however, that market rallies often happen after a fear spike subsides.  So if we don't get selling volume, the next question is whether Bulls will buy the dip?

    At this point I am watching the VIX, because while the spike of fear was big … it came when the VIX was at an extended low.  Fear and Greed (or Bears and Bulls) collide, here, as a result of the conflict between the short and longer term views of the market.  Which side wins will likely have big consequences, because a move higher in the VIX will likely coincide with a bigger move down in the markets.

    The U.S. Dollar might also provide some clues to market direction.  The Dollar and equity markets often move opposite each other.  Currency speculators increased bets against the Dollar in the latest week, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of net short positions in the dollar rose to $3.12 billion in the week ending Jan. 19, from a net short position of $2.7 billion the previous week, according to Reuters calculations

    The Markets Are Oversold in the Short-Term.

    This chart shows the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are trading above their 10-day moving average (in other words, what percent are in an up-trend on a short-term basis?).  Right now, less than 10% are.

    100124 Oversold Reading

    As you can see, we don't get extreme readings like this often … and when we do, the market tends to bounce.  To see an interactive version of this chart with an overlay of the S&P 500 Index (so you can see how often the overbought and oversold readings work) click here.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/17/10

    On the surface, the markets still look pretty good.  However, last week something happened that I consider a bearish warning sign.  The Market sold-off on good news.  Although Intel announced strong results, it looks like the market priced-in the good news already.

    In addition, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has lagged the S&P 500 recently.  Clearly, it is still in an up-trend.  However, price has pulled back to test the trend-line.  If the trend is to continue, this is where buyers should step-in.

    100118 Nasdaq Starting to Lag

    There is key support at the 2,200 level.  No alarms, yet … Just a reminder to stay vigilant.

    Is the Rally Losing Momentum?

    The rally has lasted longer than I expected.  And each time we've been at a tipping point, recently, market corrections haven't succeeded in triggering sellers.

    However, the rally has lost some of its momentum. There are many signs (like poor volume or increasing negative divergences) that point to underlying weakness.

    Is there an Unseen Hand?

    Some believe the rally is orchestrated by the government, and supported by various plunge-protection initiatives.  I find that hard to fathom.  It's a free market, and there are simply more buyers than sellers.  It doesn't matter if there are only a few buyers … price will continue to go up as long as buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure.

    Nonetheless, recent trading has stayed in a relatively narrow range.  From my standpoint, this is probably a result of a fundamental disagreement between the Bulls and the Bears. Let's look at some of the major areas of contention.

    Here are some of the reasons Bulls think the Market is still cheap enough for valuations to be attractive. 

    • The green-shoots of growth may be a sign that the economy is getting stronger.
    • Corporations are starting to invest, and M&A activity is picking-up.
    • Perhaps most important, though, is that government stimulus continues, while the Fed remains accommodative. 

    In contrast, Bears are warning that we may be at an important longer-term top.  Here are things they are watching.

    • Whether there is growth, other than from government stimulus?
    • Whether spending starts to loosen-up and grow?
    • Whether the credit crisis gets worse?
    • Whether real-estate has another leg down?
    • Whether employment numbers start to improve?

    Time will tell, and so will the charts.

    The New Bailout.

    Finally, I thought this was funny.

    Look Who Wants a Bailout

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 01/17/10

    On the surface, the markets still look pretty good.  However, last week something happened that I consider a bearish warning sign.  The Market sold-off on good news.  Although Intel announced strong results, it looks like the market priced-in the good news already.

    In addition, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has lagged the S&P 500 recently.  Clearly, it is still in an up-trend.  However, price has pulled back to test the trend-line.  If the trend is to continue, this is where buyers should step-in.

    100118 Nasdaq Starting to Lag

    There is key support at the 2,200 level.  No alarms, yet … Just a reminder to stay vigilant.

    Is the Rally Losing Momentum?

    The rally has lasted longer than I expected.  And each time we've been at a tipping point, recently, market corrections haven't succeeded in triggering sellers.

    However, the rally has lost some of its momentum. There are many signs (like poor volume or increasing negative divergences) that point to underlying weakness.

    Is there an Unseen Hand?

    Some believe the rally is orchestrated by the government, and supported by various plunge-protection initiatives.  I find that hard to fathom.  It's a free market, and there are simply more buyers than sellers.  It doesn't matter if there are only a few buyers … price will continue to go up as long as buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure.

    Nonetheless, recent trading has stayed in a relatively narrow range.  From my standpoint, this is probably a result of a fundamental disagreement between the Bulls and the Bears. Let's look at some of the major areas of contention.

    Here are some of the reasons Bulls think the Market is still cheap enough for valuations to be attractive. 

    • The green-shoots of growth may be a sign that the economy is getting stronger.
    • Corporations are starting to invest, and M&A activity is picking-up.
    • Perhaps most important, though, is that government stimulus continues, while the Fed remains accommodative. 

    In contrast, Bears are warning that we may be at an important longer-term top.  Here are things they are watching.

    • Whether there is growth, other than from government stimulus?
    • Whether spending starts to loosen-up and grow?
    • Whether the credit crisis gets worse?
    • Whether real-estate has another leg down?
    • Whether employment numbers start to improve?

    Time will tell, and so will the charts.

    The New Bailout.

    Finally, I thought this was funny.

    Look Who Wants a Bailout

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week