Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff
"If you think you can do a thing … or think you can't do a thing; you're right."
I love football season, and I'm a sucker for plot devices like this.
Here is a clip from the movie "Facing the Giants".
There are times in life when it is hard to imagine finding a path to victory.
So often the answer is as simple as committing to the outcome desired, showing-up, playing full-out, and giving your best until there is absolutely nothing left.
Tracking the Hindenburg Omen: How Much Danger Is There?
"Friday the 13th" got a little scarier than normal as warnings were heard from many corners of the financial blogosphere that the Hindenburg Omen triggered.
What is it? It is a fairly obscure technical analysis pattern, which supposedly gives an early warning of unstable market conditions (and even potentially stock market crashes).
While the calculation is based on five factors, the primary conditions indicate that there is a big disagreement about market conditions.
For example, two of the conditions are that a substantial number of stocks have to be at yearly highs, while a substantial number of stocks have to be at new annual lows. Ultimately, it is hard for those two conditions to be met in a short period of time, unless there's uncertainty in the market. Moreover, after a rally, uncertainty is often a precursor to a decline.
In addition, technically (in order for the pattern to be complete), a second sighting of the five elements must occur within 36 days. Logically, lingering uncertainty is a momentum killer.
While this pattern has correctly predicted every big stock market swoon of the past two decades, including the October 2008 decline (that set the global economic recession into motion), not every Hindenburg Omen has been followed by a crash. Resorting to a geometry analogy: All rectangles are squares, but not all squares are rectangles.
Personally, I don't make trade decisions based solely on indicators like this. Nonetheless, it has a pretty good track record, seems to be based on reasonable theories, and might be useful as just another data point urging caution.
Tough Week for World Markets.
Taking a macro view, many markets around the world went down last week. Notably, the NASDAQ was down 5%, the Nikkei was down 4%, and many other indices were down 3%.
Here in America, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee startled financial markets by raising its terror alert level over the economy and declaring it would keep buying bonds to maintain its loose-money stance and fight deflation. Despite the promise of help, the markets continued lower.
Let's Look at a Chart of the S&P.
What does a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index show? Price has retreated from the resistance area (marked by the pink highlight). In addition, price has gapped below the up-trend line (marked by the green line). Combine that with a negative divergence in MACD momentum, and the picture is technically weaker than before.
Bulls are looking for an oversold rally. Bears are looking at the unfilled gaps as breakaway gaps.
As always, it should be interesting.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Tracking the Hindenburg Omen: How Much Danger Is There?
"Friday the 13th" got a little scarier than normal as warnings were heard from many corners of the financial blogosphere that the Hindenburg Omen triggered.
What is it? It is a fairly obscure technical analysis pattern, which supposedly gives an early warning of unstable market conditions (and even potentially stock market crashes).
While the calculation is based on five factors, the primary conditions indicate that there is a big disagreement about market conditions.
For example, two of the conditions are that a substantial number of stocks have to be at yearly highs, while a substantial number of stocks have to be at new annual lows. Ultimately, it is hard for those two conditions to be met in a short period of time, unless there's uncertainty in the market. Moreover, after a rally, uncertainty is often a precursor to a decline.
In addition, technically (in order for the pattern to be complete), a second sighting of the five elements must occur within 36 days. Logically, lingering uncertainty is a momentum killer.
While this pattern has correctly predicted every big stock market swoon of the past two decades, including the October 2008 decline (that set the global economic recession into motion), not every Hindenburg Omen has been followed by a crash. Resorting to a geometry analogy: All rectangles are squares, but not all squares are rectangles.
Personally, I don't make trade decisions based solely on indicators like this. Nonetheless, it has a pretty good track record, seems to be based on reasonable theories, and might be useful as just another data point urging caution.
Tough Week for World Markets.
Taking a macro view, many markets around the world went down last week. Notably, the NASDAQ was down 5%, the Nikkei was down 4%, and many other indices were down 3%.
Here in America, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee startled financial markets by raising its terror alert level over the economy and declaring it would keep buying bonds to maintain its loose-money stance and fight deflation. Despite the promise of help, the markets continued lower.
Let's Look at a Chart of the S&P.
What does a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index show? Price has retreated from the resistance area (marked by the pink highlight). In addition, price has gapped below the up-trend line (marked by the green line). Combine that with a negative divergence in MACD momentum, and the picture is technically weaker than before.
Bulls are looking for an oversold rally. Bears are looking at the unfilled gaps as breakaway gaps.
As always, it should be interesting.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Bill Gates recently predicted that the Internet would be a better source of education than any single university.
The video in this post is an example of how good Internet content is getting. Watch the "Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us" from Dan Pink. It is very well done.
Don't let the cartoons fool you; you can learn a lot in a little over 10 minutes. I really like the visualization technique (of drawing what is spoken); it is surprisingly effective.
This video comes from RSA. You can find other videos like this one at their website.
Is Money the Best Way to Motivate Performance?
In today's business environment, is it optimal to entice people with a sweeter carrot, or threaten them with a sharper stick?
In his book, Drive, Pink calls for a different approach … one that is built much more around intrinsic motivation. Around the desire to do things because they matter, because we like it, because they're interesting, because they are part of something important. The new operating system for our businesses should revolve around three elements: autonomy, mastery and purpose.
In other words, the main point is that when someone is already intrinsically motivated, applying extrinsic motivation (in the form of reward for good behavior or punishment for bad behavior) is self-defeating because it detracts from the intrinsic motivation, which is a much more powerful force.
If you like this, then click here to see his TedTalk video too.
This video made me laugh out loud.
It shows a "motivational" speaker attempting to break a piece of wood over his head.
There might be a deeper point worth capturing; but it is worth watching purely for the entertainment value.
via Tony Robbins.
This video made me laugh out loud.
It shows a "motivational" speaker attempting to break a piece of wood over his head.
There might be a deeper point worth capturing; but it is worth watching purely for the entertainment value.
via Tony Robbins.
The government's latest snapshot of the job market was bleak, with 14.6 million Americans still searching for work. The disappointment is not limited to July; the report also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months. It is becoming clear that the existing policy mix is not appropriate for the task at hand.
Even though we've heard bad news, the market has continued to hold up well. And that is a decidedly bullish sign. There are also a number of positive signs of market strength (like strong breadth, increased corporate spending, and lots of capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed).
Market Commentary: Let's Look Under the Covers.
The charts show a few challenges ahead, however. First, the S&P 500 Index is sitting at a resistance zone in a rising wedge pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, that pattern is often bearish (or the place traders look for a reversal).
Bulls are looking for a sustained move above the 1140 level to make them comfortable.
Second, the Dollar looks like it might be at a support level. Will it reverse here? These two markets often move counter to each other. So, having the Dollar at "support" while the S&P 500 Index is at "resistance" might increase the odds of a market turn here.
Just something to keep your eye on.
Finally, this is from late May; but it is making the rounds again … and I thought it was worth sharing.
Steve Wynn Is Not a Shy Man With Few Opinions.
In this video, Steve Wynn (a casino resort/real-estate developer who has been credited with spearheading the dramatic resurgence and expansion of the Las Vegas Strip) calls out the White House and talks about the Fall of America. Interesting perspective from a billionaire.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
The government's latest snapshot of the job market was bleak, with 14.6 million Americans still searching for work. The disappointment is not limited to July; the report also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months. It is becoming clear that the existing policy mix is not appropriate for the task at hand.
Even though we've heard bad news, the market has continued to hold up well. And that is a decidedly bullish sign. There are also a number of positive signs of market strength (like strong breadth, increased corporate spending, and lots of capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed).
Market Commentary: Let's Look Under the Covers.
The charts show a few challenges ahead, however. First, the S&P 500 Index is sitting at a resistance zone in a rising wedge pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, that pattern is often bearish (or the place traders look for a reversal).
Bulls are looking for a sustained move above the 1140 level to make them comfortable.
Second, the Dollar looks like it might be at a support level. Will it reverse here? These two markets often move counter to each other. So, having the Dollar at "support" while the S&P 500 Index is at "resistance" might increase the odds of a market turn here.
Just something to keep your eye on.
Finally, this is from late May; but it is making the rounds again … and I thought it was worth sharing.
Steve Wynn Is Not a Shy Man With Few Opinions.
In this video, Steve Wynn (a casino resort/real-estate developer who has been credited with spearheading the dramatic resurgence and expansion of the Las Vegas Strip) calls out the White House and talks about the Fall of America. Interesting perspective from a billionaire.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Another barrier between person and machine is fading … and your voice is the key.
Here is a demo I made showing how Dragon NaturallySpeaking 11 turns your talk into typing (or helps you send an e-mail without touching the keyboard). It really is as accurate and easy to use as it looks in this video.
How do you think that affects your writing?
Humans can only focus on a few things at a time, and if you're focused on where your fingers are going or whether you've made a mistake, you are using cognitive resources that could have gone into thinking better or communicating more clearly.
It shouldn't come as a big surprise to you that talking is so much more natural than typing. Think how much more practice you get doing it. So, it follows that it's easier to create natural sounding content by transcribing what you say, rather than typing what you think.
The Whole Process Is Faster … Not Just the Typing.
How Fast Do You Type? You can check your speed here or here.
I was surprised to learn that my average typing speed is between 40 and 50 words per minute. Dragon NaturallySpeaking clocks in about three times faster than that.
Speech Recognition Is Getting Better All the Time.
Nuance has become a leader in this field. In addition to DNS, they've got great applications that work on smart phones, and they also bought the popular service called Jott. I mention it because their massive user-base across these products and services allow Nuance to collect millions of voice samples and customer feedback from around the world. The samples show not only different ways that people pronounce words, but which words are more likely to be spoken, and in what context. Add that to the improvements in microphones, sound cards, processing power, etc. — and the result is a faster and more accurate recognition engine.
Earlier versions of the technology were very dependent on how well you trained it. Now, it works decently out-of-the-box, with virtually no setup or specialized training. As good as it is, I appreciate that Nuance makes it easy for the program to learn my writing style and particular vocabulary. To do this, for example, you can let it look at your sent mail folder or a folder of word processing documents.
Try It Yourself.Bottom-Line: It's time to give this technology a fresh look. It's ready for prime time, and I think Nuance has a hit.
Give it a try.
Another barrier between person and machine is fading … and your voice is the key.
Here is a demo I made showing how Dragon NaturallySpeaking 11 turns your talk into typing (or helps you send an e-mail without touching the keyboard). It really is as accurate and easy to use as it looks in this video.
How do you think that affects your writing?
Humans can only focus on a few things at a time, and if you're focused on where your fingers are going or whether you've made a mistake, you are using cognitive resources that could have gone into thinking better or communicating more clearly.
It shouldn't come as a big surprise to you that talking is so much more natural than typing. Think how much more practice you get doing it. So, it follows that it's easier to create natural sounding content by transcribing what you say, rather than typing what you think.
The Whole Process Is Faster … Not Just the Typing.
How Fast Do You Type? You can check your speed here or here.
I was surprised to learn that my average typing speed is between 40 and 50 words per minute. Dragon NaturallySpeaking clocks in about three times faster than that.
Speech Recognition Is Getting Better All the Time.
Nuance has become a leader in this field. In addition to DNS, they've got great applications that work on smart phones, and they also bought the popular service called Jott. I mention it because their massive user-base across these products and services allow Nuance to collect millions of voice samples and customer feedback from around the world. The samples show not only different ways that people pronounce words, but which words are more likely to be spoken, and in what context. Add that to the improvements in microphones, sound cards, processing power, etc. — and the result is a faster and more accurate recognition engine.
Earlier versions of the technology were very dependent on how well you trained it. Now, it works decently out-of-the-box, with virtually no setup or specialized training. As good as it is, I appreciate that Nuance makes it easy for the program to learn my writing style and particular vocabulary. To do this, for example, you can let it look at your sent mail folder or a folder of word processing documents.
Try It Yourself.Bottom-Line: It's time to give this technology a fresh look. It's ready for prime time, and I think Nuance has a hit.
Give it a try.