Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • How do U.S. States Compare to Entire Countries?

    With Trump's election win, the economy will likely be center stage. 

    Crypto boomed post-election, and the S&P and the Nasdaq reached new highs as the Fed cut rates. 

    Amidst all the political turmoil, it's easy to overlook how well-positioned we are as a country – compared to the rest of the world. 

    VisualCapitalist created a chart comparing countries' GDPs to those of U.S. states. 

     

    US_StatesGDP_vsCountries_webvia visualcapitalist 

    At the top of the list, California would be the world's fifth-largest country (replacing India) with its $3.9 Trillion GDP. 

    In second place on the list, my home state, Texas, had a $2.6 Trillion GDP. For a little more context:

    • If Texas were a country, its GDP would fall just behind France ($3.1 Trillion) and above Brazil and Italy ($2.3 Trillion).
    • The Texas GDP is also higher than Canada's $2.24 Trillion GDP.

    For a bit of contrast (and extra perspective), Vermont has the lowest GDP in America, comparable to Nepal, which is the world's 101st-largest economy. Yet, Nepal has 29 times more people than Vermont. 

    Not too shabby for a place where dairy, forestry, and maple syrup drive the economy.

  • Why I’m Still Excited About The Future of GPTs as a 20+ Year AI CEO

    Last week, I explained how to create content by simply talking to your computer using ChatGPT's new voice interface. In that post, I multi-tasked in a whole new way by writing the article by merely talking with ChatGPT while walking around my neighborhood to get some fresh air and "exercise."

    In that article, I shared my conversation along with the end result – a quick and dirty article about the applications of AI voice agents. I didn't edit the article the way I usually would, but that was intentional to demonstrate what it could create on its own. My evaluation was that it produced content that met the minimum standard and provided a great starting point for me to enhance.

    Next week, I'll redo that process, emphasizing the prompts used to interact with the AI. I also used some additional prompts to refine the writing.

    As I find new tools, prompts, and applications, I can't help but share them with the people around me. Technology has always excited me and given me energy.

    Meanwhile, as I share these tools and prompts with my son, Zach, it's clear he's not as excited as I am about them. For context, Zach and I work on these articles together. So, when I find a new writing tool that I think will make our lives easier, I'm quick to share it.

    This past week, I shared some prompts with him that I thought were profound (because they were simple – but produced useful productive output). Through simple prompts and appropriate context settings, we can now get ChatGPT (or other tools like Gemini, Claude, or Perplexity) to perform functions a small business may not have internally. For example, a company could use AI as a comptroller or product manager. It can also help create reports and summarize meetings better than my assistant or I would.

     

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    Zach acknowledged the utility of capabilities like these … but described them as 'pedestrian.' He was unimpressed because, in his eyes, these were capabilities that were already possible early into the public release of ChatGPT.

    He does appreciate more specific use cases for generative AI – but focuses more heavily on apps with a singular utility. For example, he likes a writing app called Lex, which works more like a standard Word Processor (but with several nicely done AI assists) … or the Hemmingway Editor app, which helps make your writing concise and correct (by suggesting fixes for lengthy, complex sentences, and common errors).

    Instead of focusing on the new generality & ubiquity – and automating tasks outside his wheelhouse – he gets excited about supplementing his ability or improving his efficiency.

    His lack of excitement helped me understand more why I'm excited.

    Since the '90s, I've been fascinated by AI. For much of that time, two types of people shared my excitement. The first was Hollywood executives, who created cliché dystopian depictions to perpetuate a false human vs AI dichotomy (think The Terminator, I, Robot, or 2001: A Space Odyssey). The other were other people like me. Entrepreneurs or academics looking to leverage exponential technologies.

    The average person had very little practical exposure to AI outside of the hidden-in-plain-sight applications that were often glorified decision logic. Eventually, you got tools like Siri or Alexa that put it into everyone's home.

    My son takes for granted that even when ChatGPT grew popular, using it well took expertise. You had to be clever, deliberate, and patient to get results that weren't verbose garbage.

    AI is genuinely becoming not just available but accessible.

    Three great examples are Letterly, Talktastic, and Rosebud Journal.

    Letterly is an application that allows me to dictate whatever I'm thinking. It runs a process behind the scenes to organize and clean up disorganized text. Then it gives me dozens of rewrite options that allow me to choose the tone (Business, Casual, Friendly, Clear and Concise, etc.), the purpose (Email, Social Post, Journal Entry, etc.), and the type of output (Structured, 2X Shorter, Meeting Takeaways, Detailed Summary, Outline, etc.). It sounds much more complicated than it really is. The primary reason that I like it is that it's so simple that I take it for granted. 

    Another tool like that is Talktastic. For short burst dictation, TalkTastic is better than speech recognition tools (like ChatGPT, OpenAI Whisper, Google Speech-to-Text, or Apple Dictation). It is a game changer because it interprets what you're saying based on what it sees on your computer screen, regardless of the app or website. That means when you trigger it to run, TalkTastic analyzes a snapshot of your chosen app and automatically understands your conversation's tone, style, and substance while accurately spelling people's names and easily confused words. So you can turn your rough ideas into thoughtful and articulate language everywhere. I use it dozens of times every day to create short messages, emails, and even some of the sentences in an article like this. Currently, Taltastic only works on macOS devices (and is totally free while in beta).

    Rosebud is a journalling app reimagined to incorporate AI in many subtle and clever ways. I've been tempted to journal many times throughout my career, but always found reasons to abandon the practice. That's not true anymore. Rosebud's AI journal has fundamentally changed how I look at and use tools like this. Chatting with AI tools is one thing (I wrote about that in a post called Conversing With AI), but Rosebud is a level beyond even that. It has all the benefits of a traditional journal, but it adds intelligent responses, subtle prompts, and reminders to think about certain things. It's interactive and collaborative. It challenges you to re-examine certain beliefs, set goals, or measure success in different ways. Try it!

    Each of these tools is a great example of something you quickly take for granted because it's easy to get used to nice things.

    Expect a lot more things like that.

    Isn't that exciting?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – November 3rd, 2024

    Christopher-weyant_couple-in-bed-discuss-end-of-campaign-ads

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • The NFL’s Halftime Hack

    When you think of food meant to help athletes, you might think back to when parents would give orange slices or Gatorade to kids during soccer games. Now, fast forward your thinking to the best options available to fuel today's performance athletes. What do you imagine they would use before or during a game? 

    I quickly went to protein bars or energy gels (like GU) … But, I was wrong.

    According to research from The Athletic, The NFL's favorite halftime energy booster is now the uncrustable.

    What is that? An "uncrustable" is a crustless sandwich consisting of a filling between two layers of crimp-sealed bread. They are convenient, portable, and they tend to come in homey flavors like PB&J. While you can theoretically make one at home, Uncrustables, in this context, are made by Smuckers. 

    GaxdbP-WoAA2_mCThe Athletic via X 

    Based on this math, it's reasonable to assume that NFL teams go through ~4000 Uncrustables a week (on top of however many PB&Js or other sandwiches they consume). Regardless, it is a lot. 

    Why the sudden surge in popularity? It's a combination of factors:

    • Nostalgia and Comfort: The uncrustable taps into a sense of childhood nostalgia, offering a comforting and familiar taste.
    • Nutritional Balance: It provides a balanced blend of carbohydrates for quick energy, fats for sustained power, and protein for recovery.
    • Convenience: Pre-packaged and mess-free, uncrustables are perfect for a half-time snack when you have very little time to eat. 

    If you think about it, it makes sense. PB&Js are universal. Regardless of geographic region, socioeconomic status, etc. – it's a staple. 

    They're easy to digest, convenient, and comforting. Hitting all the marks a professional athlete might be looking for. 

    Even in a high-tech world, people still crave simplicity and effectiveness.

    I've never had one … but now I kind of want to try. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure they used to call this a Pop-Tart. But I guess that just makes me seem old.

  • The Human Experience Is An Endurance Sport …

    Life can be hard. For most of our existence, even 'living' was difficult. But humans survived and multiplied not because of their speed or their ferocity … nor their comparatively flabby bodies or bipedal motion.

    It was endurance.

    In history, it wasn't the strongest that survived but the most adaptable and the most enduring. 

    Some take that to impossible heights. 

    That's where Ultrarunner Nedd Brockman comes in. 

    You might have heard of Ultramarathons. Ned took it a bit further. He managed to run 1000 miles in 12 days … and he did it around a single track. Since he's Australian, we'll call it 1600 kilometers. 

     

    via 7NEWS Australia 

    Nedd is an electrician turned ultrarunner in Australia who raises funds for good causes. In this case, he raised funds to support homeless Australians. 

    While he was originally trying to beat a world record in his attempt to run 1000 miles, even when he missed that mark, he kept running. Through swollen feet, hip issues, injured toes, and more … he kept running. 

    As a result, he raised over $600,000. He ran for 12 days, 13 hours, 16 minutes, and 45 seconds. He averaged 79 miles of running a day. 

    Over the course of Nedd's Uncomfortable Challenge series, he's raised over $1.9M for charity.

    Though this may teeter on the "stupid" side of endurance, this is clearly a testament to the indomitable human spirit and challenging our limits. 

    “I just never could have imagined it to be this bad. And I’m forever grateful for it all. Wouldn’t change a … thing. Post traumatic growth coming right up.”

    How are you challenging yourself today?!

     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 27th, 2024

    Pat-byrnes_candidate-invitation

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Getting Educated Before You Vote!

    Early voting has started, and if all goes to plan, we’ll know who will be the President on Tuesday, November 5th. Realistically, it’s more likely that you’ll know who you think the President is … but the country may still be officially undecided.

    It has gotten more challenging to exercise truly educated decision-making through the fog of fake news and the growing echo chambers of noise surrounding the candidates (and their policies).

    The reality is that most of our news sources are tinted by the lens of their ideology – which is okay. That means they’re appealing to their targeted audience. 

    That being said, it may also be worth looking at the same news story from a comparative news source from the other spectrum – or even better, a primary source when it comes to science/economics. I found two tools that help me do this kind of comparison easily – Ground News and Particle.

    Ground News is a news aggregation platform that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from algorithms. Key features and benefits include:

    • Source comparison: Allows users to see how different news outlets cover the same story, grouped by political leaning (left, center, right)
    • Bias distribution: Shows the breakdown of political orientation for news sources covering each story
    • AI-generated summaries: Provides summaries of coverage from different political perspectives
    • Blindspot feature: Helps users identify stories not widely covered by their preferred sources
    • Ownership information: Shows the ownership/financial interests behind news outlets.

    Particle is a news reader app that delivers AI-powered news summaries to help you understand more, faster. It was created by an ex-Twitter alumni. The Particle app lets you browse a personalized list of stories to get you up-to-speed at a glance … or go infinitely deeper to understand various perspectives, broader context, and how a story has unfolded over time. They’re still in private beta. You can sign up for the waitlist here.

    Here’s a chart that shows where news sources rank. You can click the image for an interactive version with more details. And, if you’re curious about their methods, click here. 

    Screenshot 2024-10-25 at 8.29.57 PM

    via Ad Fontes Media

    On top of reading various news sources, there are a couple of other tools I like: 

    • FiveThirtyEight – Uses graphics to tell visual stories on valid statistics. Named after the number of electoral votes. Also has a visual presidential forecast. 
    • RealClearPolitics – Aggregates news from various sources, as well as writing their own opinion pieces. Also has a good visual on the current state of the presidential, senate, and house races. 
    • Brittanica ProCon – Tracks the stated positions of politicians on various issues. It can be sorted by candidate and by issue. It also has a quiz you can take to assess which candidate you actually resonate with. 
    • Politifact & FactCheck – Both sites fact-check presidential statements, party statements, and more. We know politicians often lie by omission or focus only on the specific stats that are relevant to their point. Fact-checking helps you gain a more holistic picture. 

    You are probably sick and tired of all the noise surrounding the election. However, our democratic system thrives on the intricate system of checks and balances powered by information sharing and continuous debate. This process compels the government to remain responsive and accountable to the people. 

    Remember, choosing not to vote is still a choice … and getting out to vote is the only way to make sure that your voice is heard – whether or not you believe in the health of America's democracy. 

     

  • Multi-Tasking with ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Interface ‘or’ Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation

    This article was created using a unique process compared to our usual approach. To test ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice capabilities, I decided to talk with it while walking around my neighborhood. I wanted to explore if it could help me be productive while getting fresh air and exercise.

     

    Gettyimages-918789438-1585262043

    What follows is the transcript, with only some light editing and formatting to better provide insight into the process and its outputs.

    The embedded mini-article that ChatGPT produced isn’t the main takeaway here. What interests me is the quality of the article, considering how little effort went into creating it. It was so painless and quick that I found myself contemplating how easily I could use this process for other types of productive output. In fact, that concept is a key focus of the mini-article below.

    That said, this is just a snapshot of AI’s current capabilities. If I were to repeat this experiment in six months or a year, I’m confident the results would be even more impressive. I'm also confident that if I'd asked it to flesh out the article, I would have been more impressed as well.

    I’d probably consider this article “good enough” if I weren’t someone who takes pride in my writing and thinking. Nonetheless, I believe it’s a solid starting point. For the record, my son (who helps write these weekly commentaries) disagrees. He liked our article and its premise – but "hated" what ChatGPT produced.

    Sure, some additional work and deeper reflection could make it meaningfully better … but it’s impressive how quickly and easily we came up with something valuable (that could become even more valuable with a little extra effort).

    In conclusion, these content creation capabilities represent a key shift: the content bar will rise, and the minimum standard for what’s acceptable will get higher. But as the bar for “acceptable” rises, I think fewer people will strive for greatness. That’s where you can extend your edge … if you’re willing to do the extra work.

     

    Here is the Chat.

    “Hello.”

    00:00

    Hey there! How’s it going?

    “Going pretty well. Today, I want to work on a blog post.”

    00:06

    That sounds great! What topic are you thinking about for your blog post?

    “How voice agents like you can help to create articles in a new way.”

    00:07

    That’s a fascinating topic! Exploring how voice agents can revolutionize content creation could really capture readers’ imaginations. You could delve into how it streamlines the writing process, adds a conversational tone, and even opens up new possibilities for interactive or personalized content. What angle are you thinking of taking?

    “Everything you just said, but I also want to add a piece on instant feedback.”

    00:01

    Fantastic! So, you could structure the blog post around how voice agents enhance the writing process by making brainstorming more dynamic, offering immediate feedback, and allowing for a more fluid, conversational tone. Is there anything else you want to explore in the post?

    “An example where I’m walking around the neighborhood, but instead of simply walking, I talk to the AI agent and have it even ask me questions.”

    00:16

    So, while strolling through the neighborhood, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent instead of just walking. It can prompt you with questions …

    “And help me consider and refine the post; yes.”

    00:020

    So, while strolling through the neighborhood, instead of just walking, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent. It can prompt you with questions, helping you refine your ideas and shape your article, all while you’re getting some fresh air and exercise. It’s a great way to maximize productivity in otherwise idle moments. Want to include anything else?

    “Yes, a couple of other examples and challenges for the reader to think about other uses of this technology that open up AI and exponential progress in ways that they haven’t thought of before.”

    00:21

    Great idea! You could include examples like using voice agents for language learning, where they act as conversation partners, or for project management, where they help organize tasks and deadlines through natural conversation. For challenges, invite readers to think about how voice agents might transform areas like mental health support, creative collaborations, or even scientific research. This approach could really spark some innovative thinking!

    “Great. Please come up with a detailed outline for what you’re thinking.”

    00:08

    1. Introduction
      • Brief overview of how voice agents are changing content creation.
      • Mention of the growing role of AI in everyday life.
    2. Voice Agents: A New Way to Write
      • How voice agents can turn walking time into productive writing sessions.
      • The ease of having a conversation with an AI to generate content.
    3. Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation
      • Brainstorming: How voice agents can help generate ideas.
      • Instant Feedback: Getting immediate responses to refine ideas.
      • Conversational Tone: How speaking thoughts out loud can create a more natural writing flow.
    4. Examples of Voice Agent Applications
      • Language Learning: Acting as a conversation partner.
      • Project Management: Organizing tasks through dialogue.
      • Mindfulness and Mental Health Support: Providing an outlet for expression and guidance.
      • Creative Collaborations: Assisting in the co-creation of stories or projects.
    5. Challenges for the Reader
      • Encourage readers to think of other areas where voice agents could be transformative.
      • Provoke thought on the broader implications of AI in accelerating exponential progress.
    6. Conclusion
      • Summarize the key points discussed.

     

    “Okay, please write that blog post for an executive or entrepreneur audience, making it simple, engaging, and relevant to their interests.”

    00:15

    …Got it. Here’s the blog post:

     

    Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation

    In today’s fast-paced world, efficiency and innovation are essential, especially for executives and entrepreneurs. One of the most exciting developments in this arena is the rise of voice agents — AI-powered assistants that are transforming how we create content. Imagine turning a simple walk around the neighborhood into a dynamic brainstorming session or a full-fledged article creation process. Let’s explore how voice agents can open up new horizons for you.

     

    A7f1fa55-67b2-48ae-af46-297621450debThis image was created using X’s Grok AI to pair with this article.

    Voice Agents: A New Way to Write

    Picture this: you’re out for your morning walk, and instead of just enjoying the scenery, you’re also creating content. With a voice agent, you can do just that. Engage in a conversation with your AI assistant, and the spoken ideas seamlessly transform into written words.

    Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation

    • Brainstorming

    Voice agents excel at helping you brainstorm. Throw ideas at them, and they’ll help you explore different angles, often sparking new thoughts in the process.

    • Instant Feedback

    Gone are the days of waiting for feedback. With a voice agent, you get instant responses. As you articulate your thoughts, the AI provides real-time feedback, helping you refine your ideas on the fly. It’s like having an editor by your side, 24/7.

    • Conversational Tone

    Speaking your thoughts can lead to a more natural, conversational tone in your writing. This style is increasingly popular, as it engages readers and makes complex topics more accessible.

    Examples of Voice Agent Applications

    • Language Learning

    Voice agents can act as conversation partners, helping you practice new languages in a low-pressure environment. They can introduce vocabulary, correct pronunciation, and even engage in dialogue, making language learning more interactive and fun.

    • Project Management

    Organizing tasks and deadlines through natural conversation is another strength of voice agents. Discuss your project needs, and let the AI help you prioritize tasks, set reminders, and keep you on track.

    • Mindfulness and Mental Health Support

    Voice agents can offer a safe space for expression and reflection. They can guide you through mindfulness exercises, provide mood trackers, or simply lend an empathetic ear, offering support whenever you need it.

    • Creative Collaborations

    Imagine co-writing a story or developing a project with your AI assistant. Voice agents can contribute ideas, help you overcome creative blocks, and add a new dimension to collaborative efforts.

    Some Challenges to Consider

    As you consider these applications, think about other areas where voice agents could revolutionize your work or personal life. Could they streamline your decision-making processes? Might they open up new avenues for customer engagement? The potential is vast, limited only by our imagination.

    Conclusion

    Voice agents are changing how we create content, offering benefits beyond simple convenience. From brainstorming to project management, and from language learning to mental health support, the possibilities are endless. As we continue to integrate AI into our daily lives, voice agents will evolve into increasingly powerful tools for innovation and growth. So, the next time you head out for a walk, consider inviting your AI assistant along — you might just discover your next big idea.

     

    “Okay, thanks.”

    00:01

    You’re welcome! If you need any more help, just let me know.

     

    I’d love your feedback on this … and I’m curious to learn how you’re using AI or want to use AI.

    As I’ve said before – we live in interesting times.

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 19th, 2024

    Rj-matson_parties-eye-voter-turnout-crystal-ball

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • The Power Of Your Dollar

    America is pretty big. Because it's one country, we take for granted how different the culture and feel of a state like North Carolina is compared to a state like New York or California. And, while our language is pretty uniform, our differences are just as big as between countries in Europe, which are even closer than those examples. 

    Even more so, the value of a dollar is different in different states. We get this to a certain degree … it's more expensive to live in California or New York than it is to live in Arkansas or Mississippi. There are lots of reasons why. But how different is it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a good map on the subject. 

     

    100-Purchasing-Power_Site

    via VisualCapitalist.

    The purchasing power of a dollar varies significantly across the United States. For instance, a dollar in Arkansas buys approximately 26% more goods and services than in California.

    Given these regional differences, while Florida may be a popular retirement destination, those concerned about the frequency of hurricanes might find North Dakota, Arkansas, or Oklahoma more appealing.

    Thinking more globally, for those seeking a combination of affordability and natural beauty, many countries offer a higher purchasing power and stunning scenery. While you might miss the unique aspects of American culture, such as our politics and Walmart, these international destinations could provide a rewarding retirement experience.

    Just a thought … for those of you considering a move if the "wrong" candidate wins!