Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Multi-Tasking with ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Interface ‘or’ Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation

    This article was created using a unique process compared to our usual approach. To test ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice capabilities, I decided to talk with it while walking around my neighborhood. I wanted to explore if it could help me be productive while getting fresh air and exercise.

     

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    What follows is the transcript, with only some light editing and formatting to better provide insight into the process and its outputs.

    The embedded mini-article that ChatGPT produced isn’t the main takeaway here. What interests me is the quality of the article, considering how little effort went into creating it. It was so painless and quick that I found myself contemplating how easily I could use this process for other types of productive output. In fact, that concept is a key focus of the mini-article below.

    That said, this is just a snapshot of AI’s current capabilities. If I were to repeat this experiment in six months or a year, I’m confident the results would be even more impressive. I'm also confident that if I'd asked it to flesh out the article, I would have been more impressed as well.

    I’d probably consider this article “good enough” if I weren’t someone who takes pride in my writing and thinking. Nonetheless, I believe it’s a solid starting point. For the record, my son (who helps write these weekly commentaries) disagrees. He liked our article and its premise – but "hated" what ChatGPT produced.

    Sure, some additional work and deeper reflection could make it meaningfully better … but it’s impressive how quickly and easily we came up with something valuable (that could become even more valuable with a little extra effort).

    In conclusion, these content creation capabilities represent a key shift: the content bar will rise, and the minimum standard for what’s acceptable will get higher. But as the bar for “acceptable” rises, I think fewer people will strive for greatness. That’s where you can extend your edge … if you’re willing to do the extra work.

     

    Here is the Chat.

    “Hello.”

    00:00

    Hey there! How’s it going?

    “Going pretty well. Today, I want to work on a blog post.”

    00:06

    That sounds great! What topic are you thinking about for your blog post?

    “How voice agents like you can help to create articles in a new way.”

    00:07

    That’s a fascinating topic! Exploring how voice agents can revolutionize content creation could really capture readers’ imaginations. You could delve into how it streamlines the writing process, adds a conversational tone, and even opens up new possibilities for interactive or personalized content. What angle are you thinking of taking?

    “Everything you just said, but I also want to add a piece on instant feedback.”

    00:01

    Fantastic! So, you could structure the blog post around how voice agents enhance the writing process by making brainstorming more dynamic, offering immediate feedback, and allowing for a more fluid, conversational tone. Is there anything else you want to explore in the post?

    “An example where I’m walking around the neighborhood, but instead of simply walking, I talk to the AI agent and have it even ask me questions.”

    00:16

    So, while strolling through the neighborhood, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent instead of just walking. It can prompt you with questions …

    “And help me consider and refine the post; yes.”

    00:020

    So, while strolling through the neighborhood, instead of just walking, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent. It can prompt you with questions, helping you refine your ideas and shape your article, all while you’re getting some fresh air and exercise. It’s a great way to maximize productivity in otherwise idle moments. Want to include anything else?

    “Yes, a couple of other examples and challenges for the reader to think about other uses of this technology that open up AI and exponential progress in ways that they haven’t thought of before.”

    00:21

    Great idea! You could include examples like using voice agents for language learning, where they act as conversation partners, or for project management, where they help organize tasks and deadlines through natural conversation. For challenges, invite readers to think about how voice agents might transform areas like mental health support, creative collaborations, or even scientific research. This approach could really spark some innovative thinking!

    “Great. Please come up with a detailed outline for what you’re thinking.”

    00:08

    1. Introduction
      • Brief overview of how voice agents are changing content creation.
      • Mention of the growing role of AI in everyday life.
    2. Voice Agents: A New Way to Write
      • How voice agents can turn walking time into productive writing sessions.
      • The ease of having a conversation with an AI to generate content.
    3. Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation
      • Brainstorming: How voice agents can help generate ideas.
      • Instant Feedback: Getting immediate responses to refine ideas.
      • Conversational Tone: How speaking thoughts out loud can create a more natural writing flow.
    4. Examples of Voice Agent Applications
      • Language Learning: Acting as a conversation partner.
      • Project Management: Organizing tasks through dialogue.
      • Mindfulness and Mental Health Support: Providing an outlet for expression and guidance.
      • Creative Collaborations: Assisting in the co-creation of stories or projects.
    5. Challenges for the Reader
      • Encourage readers to think of other areas where voice agents could be transformative.
      • Provoke thought on the broader implications of AI in accelerating exponential progress.
    6. Conclusion
      • Summarize the key points discussed.

     

    “Okay, please write that blog post for an executive or entrepreneur audience, making it simple, engaging, and relevant to their interests.”

    00:15

    …Got it. Here’s the blog post:

     

    Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation

    In today’s fast-paced world, efficiency and innovation are essential, especially for executives and entrepreneurs. One of the most exciting developments in this arena is the rise of voice agents — AI-powered assistants that are transforming how we create content. Imagine turning a simple walk around the neighborhood into a dynamic brainstorming session or a full-fledged article creation process. Let’s explore how voice agents can open up new horizons for you.

     

    A7f1fa55-67b2-48ae-af46-297621450debThis image was created using X’s Grok AI to pair with this article.

    Voice Agents: A New Way to Write

    Picture this: you’re out for your morning walk, and instead of just enjoying the scenery, you’re also creating content. With a voice agent, you can do just that. Engage in a conversation with your AI assistant, and the spoken ideas seamlessly transform into written words.

    Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation

    • Brainstorming

    Voice agents excel at helping you brainstorm. Throw ideas at them, and they’ll help you explore different angles, often sparking new thoughts in the process.

    • Instant Feedback

    Gone are the days of waiting for feedback. With a voice agent, you get instant responses. As you articulate your thoughts, the AI provides real-time feedback, helping you refine your ideas on the fly. It’s like having an editor by your side, 24/7.

    • Conversational Tone

    Speaking your thoughts can lead to a more natural, conversational tone in your writing. This style is increasingly popular, as it engages readers and makes complex topics more accessible.

    Examples of Voice Agent Applications

    • Language Learning

    Voice agents can act as conversation partners, helping you practice new languages in a low-pressure environment. They can introduce vocabulary, correct pronunciation, and even engage in dialogue, making language learning more interactive and fun.

    • Project Management

    Organizing tasks and deadlines through natural conversation is another strength of voice agents. Discuss your project needs, and let the AI help you prioritize tasks, set reminders, and keep you on track.

    • Mindfulness and Mental Health Support

    Voice agents can offer a safe space for expression and reflection. They can guide you through mindfulness exercises, provide mood trackers, or simply lend an empathetic ear, offering support whenever you need it.

    • Creative Collaborations

    Imagine co-writing a story or developing a project with your AI assistant. Voice agents can contribute ideas, help you overcome creative blocks, and add a new dimension to collaborative efforts.

    Some Challenges to Consider

    As you consider these applications, think about other areas where voice agents could revolutionize your work or personal life. Could they streamline your decision-making processes? Might they open up new avenues for customer engagement? The potential is vast, limited only by our imagination.

    Conclusion

    Voice agents are changing how we create content, offering benefits beyond simple convenience. From brainstorming to project management, and from language learning to mental health support, the possibilities are endless. As we continue to integrate AI into our daily lives, voice agents will evolve into increasingly powerful tools for innovation and growth. So, the next time you head out for a walk, consider inviting your AI assistant along — you might just discover your next big idea.

     

    “Okay, thanks.”

    00:01

    You’re welcome! If you need any more help, just let me know.

     

    I’d love your feedback on this … and I’m curious to learn how you’re using AI or want to use AI.

    As I’ve said before – we live in interesting times.

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 19th, 2024

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • The Power Of Your Dollar

    America is pretty big. Because it's one country, we take for granted how different the culture and feel of a state like North Carolina is compared to a state like New York or California. And, while our language is pretty uniform, our differences are just as big as between countries in Europe, which are even closer than those examples. 

    Even more so, the value of a dollar is different in different states. We get this to a certain degree … it's more expensive to live in California or New York than it is to live in Arkansas or Mississippi. There are lots of reasons why. But how different is it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a good map on the subject. 

     

    100-Purchasing-Power_Site

    via VisualCapitalist.

    The purchasing power of a dollar varies significantly across the United States. For instance, a dollar in Arkansas buys approximately 26% more goods and services than in California.

    Given these regional differences, while Florida may be a popular retirement destination, those concerned about the frequency of hurricanes might find North Dakota, Arkansas, or Oklahoma more appealing.

    Thinking more globally, for those seeking a combination of affordability and natural beauty, many countries offer a higher purchasing power and stunning scenery. While you might miss the unique aspects of American culture, such as our politics and Walmart, these international destinations could provide a rewarding retirement experience.

    Just a thought … for those of you considering a move if the "wrong" candidate wins! 

  • Atoning & Rebuilding

    Yesterday was Yom Kippur, which translates to “Day of Atonement” and is one of the High Holy Days in the Jewish religion.

    As part of the holiday, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness. Read the list … even though much has changed in the World… apparently, human nature hasn’t changed much.  

    Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

    I’ve had a reasonably challenging year. Instead of feeling like a victim or using the struggles as excuses, Yom Kippur is a day to look back honestly, reflect, and choose to be better.

    To help mark the day’s importance, participants read a prayer called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt that captures the spirit. 

    Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

    On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor), or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean. Your choices about these things have real power to create the experience and environment you will live in next year.

    This time of year, we can also learn from many other cultures. For example, the Japanese art of Kintsugi. In Kintsugi, the Japanese mend broken pottery by gilding the fractures with gold, silver, or platinum. This treats the breaks and damage as an element that adds value and enhances the beauty of an object (preserving a part of its history) – rather than something that diminishes the object. 

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    This concept is an excellent reminder as we unpack the “trauma” of shootings, culture wars, actual wars, and more. Our steps backward are just as much a part of our journey as our steps forward. As you heal, it is also important to remember to heal the World around you. In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

    One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others. As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s also important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

    As I look at my year, atone, and look forward, I'm reminded of two definitions I heard recently. 

    One is that “intelligence” can be defined as the ability to get or move towards what you want … and the second is that “learning” is the ability to get a better result in the same situation.

    I choose to look at going forward as a chance to clear the slate and Be and Do better … personally, professionally, in the business, and in relationships. I know that there’s lots of room for improvement, opportunities for growth, and the ability to simply put the past behind me and focus on a better future.

    Initially, I looked at Capitalogix as a technology company that built trading and fund management capabilities. Over time, I realized that the team, our tools, and the things we do backstage are more valuable than the front-stage results that we produce. We can leverage these to amplify intelligence in virtually any industry.

    The future is going to be about making better decisions, taking better actions, and continually improving performance. That won’t really change. Almost everything else will. So, the business is really about the things that don’t change.

    I think this is probably true in life as well. Many parts of you change … but the part of you that doesn’t is really the core of who you are.

    There are Less Than 100 Days Left in 2024.

    There are only 80 days left until 2025. Many will spend those days stressing about the upcoming election, grumbling about inflation, and pretending it’s the universe’s fault they didn’t accomplish what they set their mind to … yet, it’s also enough time to sprint, to make a change, and to end the year on a high note. 

    There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

    What could you do to make the life of someone around you better? Likewise, how can you let others know you’re thankful for them?

    To reference a book by Ben Hardy and Dan Sullivan, transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don’t have to drag the past forward).

    So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   Will you?

    I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  

    Best wishes for a great day and an even better year!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 13th, 2024

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Old School Wisdom Isn’t Always So Wise …

    When I first got interested in trading, I relied on traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. For example, I studied the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

    While there is some real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one might hit the bullseye.

    Traders love patterns … from head-and-shoulders, to Fibonacci sequences, and even Elliot Wave Theory.

    Here’s an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer. In 1875, he released a book titled “Benner’s Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices,” where he shared the often-referenced chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim it’s been accurately predicting market fluctuations for over 100 years. Let’s check it out.

     

     

    Here’s what it gets right … markets go up and down … and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high … It’s hard to call that a competitive advantage.

    Mostly, you’re looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.

    However, it was close to the dotcom bust and the 2008 crash … so even if you sold a little early, you’d have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

    We use a form of cycle analysis in our models … but it’s more rigorous, nuanced, and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on – and what to ignore.

    Just as humans are good at seeing patterns, even where there are none … they tend to see cycles that aren’t anything but coincidences.

    In trading, “alpha” measures the excess return created by manager skill rather than luck or movement of the underlying market. As you might guess, both “art” and “science” are involved in that calculation. Profitable traders want to believe it’s a sign of their skill, while losing traders prefer to blame luck.

    Nicholas Nassim Taleb pointed out in “Fooled by Randomness” that many successful traders, even those with decades-long careers, were likely more lucky than skillful. They just happened to be at the right firm, on the right trading desk, at the right time.

    That said, I believe technology, algorithms, and AI are evolving into Amplified Intelligence – the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance. We’re about to experience a huge asymmetric advantage … those who understand technology and science (math, statistics, game theory, etc.) will have a real edge over those relying on more primitive techniques or gut instinct.

    In a sense, this is another type of cycle.

    The best traders I know believe that “smart money” takes “dumb money”. While it may sound harsh, this cycle has played out repeatedly over time. Cutting-edge science can seem like magic to those who don’t understand it. However, these capabilities give a significant advantage to those who possess and use them.

    I believe the gap between smart and dumb money is widening. That represents a massive opportunity for those who recognize what’s coming.

    This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommended something that made money, doesn’t make it a good recommendation. Those models may do some things well … but they also might just have made a lucky prediction at an opportune time. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn’t an area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals (at least if you don’t understand how to ask AI to do something that you understand and believe gives you a real edge).

    If you don’t know what your edge is, then you don’t really have one. This becomes even more important in the age of AI. It doesn’t matter if AI does what it’s supposed to unless you believe it is doing what you want. 

    Be careful out there.

  • The Law Of Diminishing Returns

    At some point, more of the same stops paying off … it is called the law of diminishing returns.

     

    Law of Diminishing Returnsvia Sketchplanations

    Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

    This concept applies almost everywhere.

    • It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
    • Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
    • And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

    A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme … Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

    And of course … Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 6th, 2024

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Looking Back on Ryan Deiss’s Thoughts on AI & Humanity

    In 2017, I asked Ryan Deiss – a famous digital marketer – about his perspective on AI. 

     

    via YouTube

    How do you think his thoughts held up?

    To be fair, we shot this video BCGPT (before ChatGPT). Since then, AI has become much more accessible and useful.

    It was the start of the golden age of AI, machine learning, and process automation … but in the last seven years, AI's effects and impact have become radically more widespread.

    While marketing relies on data, analytics, and automation, Ryan believes it also needs a personal touch. He suggested that the best AI should make conversations feel more human (particularly in marketing and selling) and allow humans to be more human. In other words, as technology frees people up, they can focus on more valuable things.

    Today, more marketers – including Ryan – use generative AI tools to streamline their process and improve their output.

    His points about using tools like ChatGPT remain valid.

    The saying is trite, but AI won't replace your job … a human with AI will.

    This has happened many times in society. Fewer people work in farming or manufacturing, yet more people are doing more jobs. However, many of these new jobs didn't exist – or couldn't have been imagined – before people were freed up to contemplate what they could or should do. This shift in perspective is what truly matters and adds the most value to society, the economy, and people's lives.

    Just as mechanization freed up workforces for better jobs, AI can do the same.

    What do you think?

  • Are You As Smart As You Think You Are?

    VisualCapitalist just shared an infographic showing the Average IQ by state. It caught my eye and my interest.  Here it is.

     

    AverageIQbyState_web

    via VisualCapitalist.

    When I first examined the chart, I focused on the state-by-state differences. Honestly, I was taken aback that some states scored higher than others. And by that, I mean it wasn't necessarily the states I would've predicted. But then I took a closer look at the scale and realized these differences are probably insignificant. The results essentially show that, on average, states' intelligence levels are… well, average.

    I know a lot of smart people.

    I also know many people who think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones … or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

    It's common. It's so common that there's a name for it—the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

    Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their skills. 

    Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

    Dunning-w-caption

    via NC Soy

    The funny thing about the above image… it's not actually a part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But it's now so commonplace that people report that chart as fact—a fitting example of the effect. 

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    David Fitzsimmons via Cagle Cartoons

    Recognizing the "victims" of this effect in our daily lives can often be funny or frustrating. But we're all prone to this; it's a sign of ignorance, not stupidity. 

    This is a problem with all groups and all people. You're not immune to it, even if you already know about the cognitive bias resulting from the Dunning-Kruger Effect. 

    It should be a reminder to reflect inward – not cast aspersions outward. 

    Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

    Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much… - David Dunning

    To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger presents a simplification of its findings. The U-shape in the graph isn't seen in the paper, the connection that lack of ability precludes meta-cognitive ability on a task is intuitive, but not the only potential takeaway from the paper. 

    Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

    We judge ourselves situationally and assume "the best". Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

    We can do better … it starts with awareness.

    Progress starts by telling the truth.