Uncategorized

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

 Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
• I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
• My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
• My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

Welcome to the World of Socialnomics.  This video has a bunch of interesting statistics … and is fun to watch. 

Other Resources:

• Here is a link to a short-version of this video.
• This reminds me of the "Shift Happens!" video.
• Worth Looking At … Here are the Stats.

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

 Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
• I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
• My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
• My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

Welcome to the World of Socialnomics.  This video has a bunch of interesting statistics … and is fun to watch. 

Other Resources:

• Here is a link to a short-version of this video.
• This reminds me of the "Shift Happens!" video.
• Worth Looking At … Here are the Stats.

Do You Have a Habit of Creating Habits?

I do; I'm a creature of habit more often than I like to admit.

For example, I tend to order the same thing at restaurant each time I go there. So, when I want good pizza, I go to Parma's; and when I want a great burger, I go to Mooyah.

By the way, that is a picture of my son eating a 4-Stack, one-pound burger (and me remembering when I could do that too).

Habits happen at work too.  As a trader, I draw charts a certain way, prefer certain patterns, and respond predictably to certain emotional triggers.

What habits do you have?   Perhaps more important to ask is: What percent of your habits have become so habitual that you no longer notice that they are habits?

Relying On a Routine is a Blessing and a Curse.

I'm typically a happy person. I feel like I roll with the punches well. Part of that is "true"; and a bigger part is due to creating a routine that supports my natural rhythms.

An Exception Highlights the Rule: This week my brother had a baby, and I made a quick trip to LA with the family to celebrate. Even though it was a happy occasion, it is pretty clear that when I travel, and my routine is interrupted, I am much easier to upset.

On the other hand, I'm also much more likely to experience something new when I'm taken out of my routine.

Too Much of a Good Thing. How Can Relying On Your Best Qualities Hurt you?

How many opportunities to create something better do you miss because you like doing what you are doing?  A related question is how many opportunities do you miss because you don't recognize the rut you are in?

There are several types of progress; for example, Process Improvement and Discontiguous Innovation. In Process Improvement, creating habits and routines is the stated purpose … choosing the right ones is the art.  With Discontiguous Innovation, it is about leaving the old behind and simply finding a way to get a better result. In my experience the hardest part often simply is remembering that there might be a better way.

Routine is fine as long as it is a conscious choice.
Otherwise, it can limit your options unnecessarily.

Do You Have a Habit of Creating Habits?

I do; I'm a creature of habit more often than I like to admit.

For example, I tend to order the same thing at restaurant each time I go there. So, when I want good pizza, I go to Parma's; and when I want a great burger, I go to Mooyah.

By the way, that is a picture of my son eating a 4-Stack, one-pound burger (and me remembering when I could do that too).

Habits happen at work too.  As a trader, I draw charts a certain way, prefer certain patterns, and respond predictably to certain emotional triggers.

What habits do you have?   Perhaps more important to ask is: What percent of your habits have become so habitual that you no longer notice that they are habits?

Relying On a Routine is a Blessing and a Curse.

I'm typically a happy person. I feel like I roll with the punches well. Part of that is "true"; and a bigger part is due to creating a routine that supports my natural rhythms.

An Exception Highlights the Rule: This week my brother had a baby, and I made a quick trip to LA with the family to celebrate. Even though it was a happy occasion, it is pretty clear that when I travel, and my routine is interrupted, I am much easier to upset.

On the other hand, I'm also much more likely to experience something new when I'm taken out of my routine.

Too Much of a Good Thing. How Can Relying On Your Best Qualities Hurt you?

How many opportunities to create something better do you miss because you like doing what you are doing?  A related question is how many opportunities do you miss because you don't recognize the rut you are in?

There are several types of progress; for example, Process Improvement and Discontiguous Innovation. In Process Improvement, creating habits and routines is the stated purpose … choosing the right ones is the art.  With Discontiguous Innovation, it is about leaving the old behind and simply finding a way to get a better result. In my experience the hardest part often simply is remembering that there might be a better way.

Routine is fine as long as it is a conscious choice.
Otherwise, it can limit your options unnecessarily.

Here is a quick video about Inspiration and Entrepreneurship.

It begins with the question, “Do you remember when you were a kid…And you thought you could do anything?” and then proceeds to tell the viewer that the hope possessed as children is renewable as an adult, and as an entrepreneur. It is well-done, fun, and only takes about two minutes. So, seize the day … and watch the video.

Direct link to video on YouTube.

Read more about the video in this WSJ article.

Here is a quick video about Inspiration and Entrepreneurship.

It begins with the question, “Do you remember when you were a kid…And you thought you could do anything?” and then proceeds to tell the viewer that the hope possessed as children is renewable as an adult, and as an entrepreneur. It is well-done, fun, and only takes about two minutes. So, seize the day … and watch the video.

Direct link to video on YouTube.

Read more about the video in this WSJ article.

Did the Government blink?  By that I'm asking whether you think they passed a Stimulus Plan because it was well-considered and the right thing to do … or because we were about to make new market lows and key decision-makers believed that preserving confidence, at any cost, was the move to make?

Last week I said I was more interested in how the Market reacted to the Stimulus Plan, than in the plan itself. Well, the Market sent a pretty strong message this week.  It sold-off and is sitting just above the support areas set by the October and November lows.

The Stimulus Plan is hard for me to understand on several levels.  My sense is that it is work-in-progress and should be looked at only as a first-step to figure-out what it is going to take to get things moving in a positive direction. 

Here is a different (and more fun) explanation that is worth watching.

Here is a direct link to the video on Uncle Jay's site.

Smart Money – Dumb Money Confidence Index.

This chart compares the bets made by small traders (a.k.a. the "Dumb Money"), to those of large commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "Smart Money").

In practice, Confidence Index readings rarely get below 30% or above 70% (they usually stay between 40% and 60%). When they move outside of those bands, it's time to pay attention.

Even more noteworthy is when there is a wide confidence spread with bearish bets by the Dumb Money and bullish bets by the Smart Money. This type of sentiment
spread only happens a few times a year. The chart below shows that we often get substantial bullish reversals when that happens. 

I marked those occurrences with Yellow Arrows and marked the corresponding rallies in the S&P 500 using Orange Boxes.  As you can see, this has been a valuable indicator to follow.  So, what is it telling us now?

Conventional trading wisdom says that Crowds are usually wrong at turning-points.  That doesn't mean they are wrong all the time (especially when the Smart Money agrees).  So, perhaps this chart whispers "wait for the edge to get stronger".  I don't like how weak the Smart Money confidence is given all the intervention help the Markets received and how long Market lows have held.

Here Are A Few Of The Business Posts I Found Interesting This Week:

• Stimulus Battle Has Just Begun … Both Fiscally And Politically. (WP)
• The Stimulus Plans: Comparison of what the House and Senate Proposed. (WSJ)
• More Tech Start-Ups Call It Quits. (WSJ & Silicon Alley Insider)
• Twitter to begin charging brands for commercial use. (Brand Republic)
• Mark Cuban will fund Entrepreneurs using Open Source Funding. (Macroaxis)
• Dubai becoming a Ghost-Town.  Economy chases away foreign workers. (Daily Beast)
• Microsoft Opening Retail Stores.  When did copying Apple ever work for them? (FT)

And, A Little Bit Extra:

• CIA Director: Top Ten Terror Threats. (National Terror Alert)
• Are you getting bored of Facebook.  Apparently some are … (Brand Republic)
• Facebook had over 68 million unique visitors and 1 billion visits last month. (CNet)
• How AmEx Uses Data-Mining to Monitor Your Credit Card Spending. (NYTimes)
• Seth Godin's top posts from the past year. Lots of good ideas. (Seth Godin's Blog)
• Professional Sports Teams are Forced To Get Creative About Selling Tickets. (NYTimes)

Did the Government blink?  By that I'm asking whether you think they passed a Stimulus Plan because it was well-considered and the right thing to do … or because we were about to make new market lows and key decision-makers believed that preserving confidence, at any cost, was the move to make?

Last week I said I was more interested in how the Market reacted to the Stimulus Plan, than in the plan itself. Well, the Market sent a pretty strong message this week.  It sold-off and is sitting just above the support areas set by the October and November lows.

The Stimulus Plan is hard for me to understand on several levels.  My sense is that it is work-in-progress and should be looked at only as a first-step to figure-out what it is going to take to get things moving in a positive direction. 

Here is a different (and more fun) explanation that is worth watching.

Here is a direct link to the video on Uncle Jay's site.

Smart Money – Dumb Money Confidence Index.

This chart compares the bets made by small traders (a.k.a. the "Dumb Money"), to those of large commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "Smart Money").

In practice, Confidence Index readings rarely get below 30% or above 70% (they usually stay between 40% and 60%). When they move outside of those bands, it's time to pay attention.

Even more noteworthy is when there is a wide confidence spread with bearish bets by the Dumb Money and bullish bets by the Smart Money. This type of sentiment
spread only happens a few times a year. The chart below shows that we often get substantial bullish reversals when that happens. 

I marked those occurrences with Yellow Arrows and marked the corresponding rallies in the S&P 500 using Orange Boxes.  As you can see, this has been a valuable indicator to follow.  So, what is it telling us now?

Conventional trading wisdom says that Crowds are usually wrong at turning-points.  That doesn't mean they are wrong all the time (especially when the Smart Money agrees).  So, perhaps this chart whispers "wait for the edge to get stronger".  I don't like how weak the Smart Money confidence is given all the intervention help the Markets received and how long Market lows have held.

Here Are A Few Of The Business Posts I Found Interesting This Week:

• Stimulus Battle Has Just Begun … Both Fiscally And Politically. (WP)
• The Stimulus Plans: Comparison of what the House and Senate Proposed. (WSJ)
• More Tech Start-Ups Call It Quits. (WSJ & Silicon Alley Insider)
• Twitter to begin charging brands for commercial use. (Brand Republic)
• Mark Cuban will fund Entrepreneurs using Open Source Funding. (Macroaxis)
• Dubai becoming a Ghost-Town.  Economy chases away foreign workers. (Daily Beast)
• Microsoft Opening Retail Stores.  When did copying Apple ever work for them? (FT)

And, A Little Bit Extra:

• CIA Director: Top Ten Terror Threats. (National Terror Alert)
• Are you getting bored of Facebook.  Apparently some are … (Brand Republic)
• Facebook had over 68 million unique visitors and 1 billion visits last month. (CNet)
• How AmEx Uses Data-Mining to Monitor Your Credit Card Spending. (NYTimes)
• Seth Godin's top posts from the past year. Lots of good ideas. (Seth Godin's Blog)
• Professional Sports Teams are Forced To Get Creative About Selling Tickets. (NYTimes)

DISCLAIMER AND CONFLICTS

THE PUBLICATION OF THIS BLOG IS FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND AMUSEMENT ONLY. THE AUTHOR IS NOT SOLICITING ANY ACTION BASED UPON IT, NOR IS HE SUGGESTING THAT IT REPRESENTS, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY.

THE CONTENT OF THIS LETTER IS DERIVED FROM INFORMATION AND SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT THE AUTHOR MAKES NO REPRESENTATION THAT IT IS COMPLETE OR ERROR-FREE, AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN FACT, MUCH OF WHAT IS ON THIS SITE IS THERE BECAUSE IT I THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING OR HUMOROUS RATHER THAN BECAUSE IT IS MY OPINION.  EVEN WHEN AN OPINION IS STATED, HOWEVER, IT IS TO BE TAKEN AS THE AUTHORS OPINION AS SHAPED BY HIS EXPERIENCE, RATHER THAN A STATEMENT OF FACTS. THE AUTHOR MAY HAVE INVESTMENT POSITIONS, LONG OR SHORT, IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED, WHICH MAY BE CHANGED AT ANY TIME FOR ANY REASON.

CAPITALOGIX, HOWARD GETSON, NOR ANY RELATED ENTITY OR PERSON CANNOT AND DOES NOT MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION AS TO THE ACCURACY OF THIS INFORMATION ON THIS SITE OR LINKS TO OTHER SITES OR SOURCES. PLEASE VERIFY ALL INFORMATION YOURSELF.

THIS MATERIAL IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED IN ANY WAY AS AN INDUCEMENT TO INVEST. AN INVESTMENT IN SECURITIES OR FUTURES IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK .

NEITHER HOWARD GETSON NOR CAPITALOGIX IS A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR A BROKER/DEALER.

RISKS OF SECURITY FUTURES TRANSACTIONS: TRADING SECURITY FUTURES CONTRACTS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU MAY LOSE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MONEY IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE AMOUNT YOU MAY LOSE IS POTENTIALLY UNLIMITED AND CAN EXCEED THE AMOUNT YOU ORIGINALLY DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER. THIS IS BECAUSE FUTURES TRADING IS HIGHLY LEVERAGED, WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY USED TO ESTABLISH A POSITION IN ASSETS HAVING A MUCH GREATER VALUE. IF YOU ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THIS LEVEL OF RISK, YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE SECURITY FUTURES CONTRACTS.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN SECURITIES, MANAGED FUTURES, OR FUNDS.

DISCLAIMER AND CONFLICTS

THE PUBLICATION OF THIS BLOG IS FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND AMUSEMENT ONLY. THE AUTHOR IS NOT SOLICITING ANY ACTION BASED UPON IT, NOR IS HE SUGGESTING THAT IT REPRESENTS, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY.

THE CONTENT OF THIS LETTER IS DERIVED FROM INFORMATION AND SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT THE AUTHOR MAKES NO REPRESENTATION THAT IT IS COMPLETE OR ERROR-FREE, AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN FACT, MUCH OF WHAT IS ON THIS SITE IS THERE BECAUSE IT I THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING OR HUMOROUS RATHER THAN BECAUSE IT IS MY OPINION.  EVEN WHEN AN OPINION IS STATED, HOWEVER, IT IS TO BE TAKEN AS THE AUTHORS OPINION AS SHAPED BY HIS EXPERIENCE, RATHER THAN A STATEMENT OF FACTS. THE AUTHOR MAY HAVE INVESTMENT POSITIONS, LONG OR SHORT, IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED, WHICH MAY BE CHANGED AT ANY TIME FOR ANY REASON.

CAPITALOGIX, HOWARD GETSON, NOR ANY RELATED ENTITY OR PERSON CANNOT AND DOES NOT MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION AS TO THE ACCURACY OF THIS INFORMATION ON THIS SITE OR LINKS TO OTHER SITES OR SOURCES. PLEASE VERIFY ALL INFORMATION YOURSELF.

THIS MATERIAL IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED IN ANY WAY AS AN INDUCEMENT TO INVEST. AN INVESTMENT IN SECURITIES OR FUTURES IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK .

NEITHER HOWARD GETSON NOR CAPITALOGIX IS A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR A BROKER/DEALER.

RISKS OF SECURITY FUTURES TRANSACTIONS: TRADING SECURITY FUTURES CONTRACTS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU MAY LOSE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MONEY IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE AMOUNT YOU MAY LOSE IS POTENTIALLY UNLIMITED AND CAN EXCEED THE AMOUNT YOU ORIGINALLY DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER. THIS IS BECAUSE FUTURES TRADING IS HIGHLY LEVERAGED, WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY USED TO ESTABLISH A POSITION IN ASSETS HAVING A MUCH GREATER VALUE. IF YOU ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THIS LEVEL OF RISK, YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE SECURITY FUTURES CONTRACTS.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN SECURITIES, MANAGED FUTURES, OR FUNDS.