When I was a kid, Jet-Packs were a part of science fiction … and
cartoons.
If you always wanted one, it appears that your
wait is almost over.
On a side note, in the rush to the future, sometimes it makes
sense to appreciate the things we are already "got right" and want to
protect.
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When I was a kid, Jet-Packs were a part of science fiction … and
cartoons.
If you always wanted one, it appears that your
wait is almost over.
On a side note, in the rush to the future, sometimes it makes
sense to appreciate the things we are already "got right" and want to
protect.
The rally continues.
Individual Investors Enter the New Year with Confidence.
The weekly sentiment survey done by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) measures the percentage of individual investors (who take the survey) that are bullish, neutral and bearish.
The chart below shows that retail investors are getting quite confident and that the percent of bearish investors is unusually low. While that sounds positive, typically, this is a contrary indicator. Said a different way, turning points often happen at confidence extremes. Consequently, traders watch for bearish moves to happen at this level of bullish sentiment.
Consensus in the marketplace is rare. If everyone truly believed the same thing, no one would take the other side of your trade. However, when investors behave as a herd, it is usually because they are emotional about something. And, as we know, greed and fear are the most prevalent emotions in the market.
Contrarian analysis, of course, is based on the simple notion that the majority is rarely right about the stock market's direction, especially at market turning points.
Do Headlines Signal the End of Trends?
Likewise, conventional wisdom holds that magazine cover stories are contrary indicators – by the time a success or failure reaches the cover page of a major publication, the story is so well known as to be completely reflected in the market. While simplistic, the magazine cover indicator now has the support of recent academic research. This research found that cover story headlines on Business Week, Fortune and Forbes tended to indicate that the mood (bullish or bearish) of the story was about to change in the market. Moreover, when an economic issue makes the cover of a general market publication (like Time), it's guaranteed to be already very late in the game.
Consequently, I hear a lot of traders joke that Time Magazine's selection of Ben Bernanke as their "Person of the Year" will be the straw that breaks the bull-market's back.
An Old Pro Summarizes the Year for Traders.
Here is a brief interview with Art Cashin, the director of floor operations for UBS, and a frequent CNBC commentator. He is an old pro who does a nice job explaining what happened this past year and providing some perspective.
For more video from Art, click here.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
The rally continues.
Individual Investors Enter the New Year with Confidence.
The weekly sentiment survey done by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) measures the percentage of individual investors (who take the survey) that are bullish, neutral and bearish.
The chart below shows that retail investors are getting quite confident and that the percent of bearish investors is unusually low. While that sounds positive, typically, this is a contrary indicator. Said a different way, turning points often happen at confidence extremes. Consequently, traders watch for bearish moves to happen at this level of bullish sentiment.
Consensus in the marketplace is rare. If everyone truly believed the same thing, no one would take the other side of your trade. However, when investors behave as a herd, it is usually because they are emotional about something. And, as we know, greed and fear are the most prevalent emotions in the market.
Contrarian analysis, of course, is based on the simple notion that the majority is rarely right about the stock market's direction, especially at market turning points.
Do Headlines Signal the End of Trends?
Likewise, conventional wisdom holds that magazine cover stories are contrary indicators – by the time a success or failure reaches the cover page of a major publication, the story is so well known as to be completely reflected in the market. While simplistic, the magazine cover indicator now has the support of recent academic research. This research found that cover story headlines on Business Week, Fortune and Forbes tended to indicate that the mood (bullish or bearish) of the story was about to change in the market. Moreover, when an economic issue makes the cover of a general market publication (like Time), it's guaranteed to be already very late in the game.
Consequently, I hear a lot of traders joke that Time Magazine's selection of Ben Bernanke as their "Person of the Year" will be the straw that breaks the bull-market's back.
An Old Pro Summarizes the Year for Traders.
Here is a brief interview with Art Cashin, the director of floor operations for UBS, and a frequent CNBC commentator. He is an old pro who does a nice job explaining what happened this past year and providing some perspective.
For more video from Art, click here.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Hopefully, you are having a happy holiday season.
Technology is changing how I prepare this year. A major portion of my gift purchases happened online, rather than in-person. What about you?
I did go to the malls; and what I found was lots of parking spaces and deals that I could easily better with an internet connection.
It will be interesting to see how consumers spent, and which retailers were naughty and nice.
Here are a few of the other things I noticed recently.
The Christmas Lights Economic Indicator?
In past years, my neighborhood was a flashing Wonderland of Christmas lights. This year, the displays are much more down-to-earth. Are people feeling less jolly? My guess is that fewer people chose to pay someone to hang the lights for them.
The Blockbuster Indicator?
When I went to see Avatar, on its opening day at the theater, a quarter of the seats were empty. Box Office Mojo reports that the opening numbers were respectable, though not phenomenal. The reviews have been great … so perhaps fewer people chose to pay the $3 per ticket premium to see this movie in 3D because they are more in touch with their budgets and spending limits.
Hopefully, you are having a happy holiday season.
Technology is changing how I prepare this year. A major portion of my gift purchases happened online, rather than in-person. What about you?
I did go to the malls; and what I found was lots of parking spaces and deals that I could easily better with an internet connection.
It will be interesting to see how consumers spent, and which retailers were naughty and nice.
Here are a few of the other things I noticed recently.
The Christmas Lights Economic Indicator?
In past years, my neighborhood was a flashing Wonderland of Christmas lights. This year, the displays are much more down-to-earth. Are people feeling less jolly? My guess is that fewer people chose to pay someone to hang the lights for them.
The Blockbuster Indicator?
When I went to see Avatar, on its opening day at the theater, a quarter of the seats were empty. Box Office Mojo reports that the opening numbers were respectable, though not phenomenal. The reviews have been great … so perhaps fewer people chose to pay the $3 per ticket premium to see this movie in 3D because they are more in touch with their budgets and spending limits.
I highly recommend seeing James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, in 3-D. It was terrific … much better than I hoped or expected.
It was so good that none of us would leave to refill the popcorn … And my wife didn't use the bathroom once (which means you should expect Avatar to win a bunch of Oscars).
The story and underlying message were good. Yet, that isn't why people will flock to see it. This is one of those
"you have to watch this on a big screen" movies. It is a spectacle.
Enjoy it for what it
is … And later, think about how many cool technologies you saw the
characters use that you can't wait for someone to develop in this
world. Visionary and very cool.
Here is a short example of what to expect.
Not All 3-D is Created Equal.
The CGI effects were way better than I expected. Frankly it was hard to tell what was "real" and what wasn't. The unsung hero, though, was the 3-D technology. It was far and away the best I've seen, because it seemed real and natural, rather than a gimmick. It was so good, you forget it is in 3D.
In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys handed out the older blue and red filmed 3-D glasses at their game against the San Diego Chargers last week. The idea was to use the giant screen to show 3-D replay highlights.
Here is a picture of people trying to use them at the game. At first, it was novel. However, as you might have guessed, watching the live game with the glasses was almost impossible. After a few minutes, the crowd started booing until the stadium switched back to regular graphics.
After watching Avatar, though, I expect to see a lot more 3-D content. Major manufacturers are betting on it too. The technology is getting better … And so is the experience.
Other Resources:
I highly recommend seeing James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, in 3-D. It was terrific … much better than I hoped or expected.
It was so good that none of us would leave to refill the popcorn … And my wife didn't use the bathroom once (which means you should expect Avatar to win a bunch of Oscars).
The story and underlying message were good. Yet, that isn't why people will flock to see it. This is one of those
"you have to watch this on a big screen" movies. It is a spectacle.
Enjoy it for what it
is … And later, think about how many cool technologies you saw the
characters use that you can't wait for someone to develop in this
world. Visionary and very cool.
Here is a short example of what to expect.
Not All 3-D is Created Equal.
The CGI effects were way better than I expected. Frankly it was hard to tell what was "real" and what wasn't. The unsung hero, though, was the 3-D technology. It was far and away the best I've seen, because it seemed real and natural, rather than a gimmick. It was so good, you forget it is in 3D.
In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys handed out the older blue and red filmed 3-D glasses at their game against the San Diego Chargers last week. The idea was to use the giant screen to show 3-D replay highlights.
Here is a picture of people trying to use them at the game. At first, it was novel. However, as you might have guessed, watching the live game with the glasses was almost impossible. After a few minutes, the crowd started booing until the stadium switched back to regular graphics.
After watching Avatar, though, I expect to see a lot more 3-D content. Major manufacturers are betting on it too. The technology is getting better … And so is the experience.
Other Resources:
Two business thought leaders that I highly recommend are Verne Harnish and Jim Collins.
They both wrote books I love. Verne' "Rockefeller Habits" is terrific. And Jim's "Good to Great" and "Built to Last" are both classics.
Recently, I heard Jim Collins talk about his new book, "How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In". It's a quick read makes a lot of sense.
Before I talk about the book, here are three things he said that caught my attention. Even out of context they are worth repeating:
The Point of the Book: Keep-Up the Disciplines that Make You Great.
One of the key points was to be terrified of your success. Not because success is bad, in-and-of-itself. Rather, because success often takes you away from the disciplines of building greatness.
The difference between good and great is often a culture of discipline and a focus on having the right people filling the key seats in the company.
It is One Thing to Have the Right People On the Bus … How Well Are Your "Key Seats" Filled?
How many "Key Seats" are there in your company? Perhaps more importantly, ask yourself what percent of these Key Seats do you have empirical proof, and confidence, that the right people are already in-place, doing the right job? Then, ask yourself whether the percentage is increasing, decreasing, or holding steady?
If this is important to your company … what are you going to do about it? And how often are you going to focus on this?
Most Companies Measure and Manage the Wrong Things.
Another point he stressed was that what gets measured, gets managed. However, one of the disciplines of greatness is to get beyond measuring what's easy, to define what needs measurement and management. Recognizing the key performance indicators in the key measures of success go a long way towards moving in the right direction, together, as a company.
Agree to A Committed Action.
He reminds that great companies are not without disagreement. Instead, they use it as a catalyst to see issues from different perspectives, to get tough conversations out into the open, and then commit to a course of action. Not everyone has to agree with the course of action; yet, everyone should have clarity about what they are agreeing to and what course of action will be.
"How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In"?
One of the main points of his new book is the downturns are predictable and to some extent, inevitable; however, it doesn't have to be fatal. In fact, it can be the catalyst to the next round of growth on the path to greatness.
He asks the question: "Why do truly great companies limit growth and set absolute minimum standards, which must be exceeded?" Here is a high-level view of the answer.
Bottom Line: Stay disciplined … and keep the Main Thing, the main thing.
Two business thought leaders that I highly recommend are Verne Harnish and Jim Collins.
They both wrote books I love. Verne' "Rockefeller Habits" is terrific. And Jim's "Good to Great" and "Built to Last" are both classics.
Recently, I heard Jim Collins talk about his new book, "How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In". It's a quick read makes a lot of sense.
Before I talk about the book, here are three things he said that caught my attention. Even out of context they are worth repeating:
The Point of the Book: Keep-Up the Disciplines that Make You Great.
One of the key points was to be terrified of your success. Not because success is bad, in-and-of-itself. Rather, because success often takes you away from the disciplines of building greatness.
The difference between good and great is often a culture of discipline and a focus on having the right people filling the key seats in the company.
It is One Thing to Have the Right People On the Bus … How Well Are Your "Key Seats" Filled?
How many "Key Seats" are there in your company? Perhaps more importantly, ask yourself what percent of these Key Seats do you have empirical proof, and confidence, that the right people are already in-place, doing the right job? Then, ask yourself whether the percentage is increasing, decreasing, or holding steady?
If this is important to your company … what are you going to do about it? And how often are you going to focus on this?
Most Companies Measure and Manage the Wrong Things.
Another point he stressed was that what gets measured, gets managed. However, one of the disciplines of greatness is to get beyond measuring what's easy, to define what needs measurement and management. Recognizing the key performance indicators in the key measures of success go a long way towards moving in the right direction, together, as a company.
Agree to A Committed Action.
He reminds that great companies are not without disagreement. Instead, they use it as a catalyst to see issues from different perspectives, to get tough conversations out into the open, and then commit to a course of action. Not everyone has to agree with the course of action; yet, everyone should have clarity about what they are agreeing to and what course of action will be.
"How the Mighty Fall – And Why Some Companies Never Give In"?
One of the main points of his new book is the downturns are predictable and to some extent, inevitable; however, it doesn't have to be fatal. In fact, it can be the catalyst to the next round of growth on the path to greatness.
He asks the question: "Why do truly great companies limit growth and set absolute minimum standards, which must be exceeded?" Here is a high-level view of the answer.
Bottom Line: Stay disciplined … and keep the Main Thing, the main thing.