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  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/06/10 – If Everyone Is a Contrarian, No One Is

    Lowering the value of the Dollar is not a goal … it is a strategic by-product.

    From Reuters:

    Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto said on Thursday that lowering the value of the U.S. dollar is not a goal of the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy. “We don’t target or try to manipulate the value of our currency; we focus on our two objectives of price stability and maximum employment,”

    TranslationWe don’t care about the Dollar right now.

    101204 Bernanke-Disavows-Money

    The Rising Cost Of Keeping The U.S. Recovery On Track.

    According to CityWire, in 2010, many emerging economies began to withdraw (tighten) some of the money they had used to stimulate growth.

    But in the U.S. yet more money will be spent in 2011 – with 'QE2' and on welfare – to try and revive the faltering recovery (loosening).

    101203 Country Debt Comparison

    I don't normally reproduce articles verbatim.  However, this piece from Barry RItholtz at the Big Picture deserves to be seen.

    A Dozen Random Things I Am Thinking About . . .

    Every now and again, I like to jot down some random thoughts — about the markets, economy, crowd psychology. It is how I process ideas, intuition, various data inputs.

    Make of this what you will, but these are the random thoughts that seem to be occupying my mind lately:

    1. Markets are frequently disconnected from their expected inputs: Economy, Profits, Tax Policy, Interest Rates. This is more than a mere lag, it is a complex interplay that often looks like randomness — but isn’t.

    2. To many market participants, this seemingly random walk is an exercise in frustrated expectations. Let’s call it “Fooled by Taleb” to separate the true low correlation, random outcomes from the hard-to-understand but non-random events.

    3. The economy’s impact on markets is neither linear nor consistent. (Despite this, some people insist on basing investments on current economic data).

    4. Wisdom consists (in part) of learning what to keep and what to discard. What you purposefully sequester and do not read is just as important as what you do consume. In practice, you I find it helpful to “Quarantine” the sources that are consistently wrong or money losers.

    5. Evolution has shaped Human Beings over many millenia. I suspect Human learning came from adapting to recent experiences. Perhaps this is why people are so backwards looking, suffering extensively from the recency effect: Learning from recent events is a good survival skill, but it turns out to be a terrible investing trait.

    6. I continue to wrestle with the concept of Valuation –it is more of a challenge than I previously believed. Fair value changes relative to numerous inputs, including taxes, interest rates and bond yields. I wonder if Valuation is far less of an objective measure than classically believed by the Graham & Dodd crowd.

    7. Long arcs of time are an abstract philosophical concept, one that seems to elude many investors. While most people understand the idea of time elapsing intellectually, they do not seem to truly grasp cycles, years, and decades intuitively; I wonder if this is due to people being uncomfortable with it emotionally due to other factors (impatience, desire, even mortality).

    8. Discerning crowd sentiment is more challenging than it appears at first blush. There are objective numerical readings, subjective surveys, and lastly, anecdotes. None are perfect tells, all require interpretation.

    9. How someone constructs their rhetoric tells volumes about the underlying strength of their arguments. Abusing data, appealing to emotions, ignoring facts, shifting the debate to secondary or tertiary issues are signs of a weak, poorly reasoned thesis. Investors that learn to recognize the difference between powerful arguments and clever, weak ones are at an advantage.

    10. Speaking of rhetoric: I sometimes wonder if the Expert Fallacy is a fallacy itself. The difficulty lay in some experts adding value, while the bulk do not. If you can identify the difference between the two — which apparently, most folks cannot — its money.

    11. I have been mulling over this Jeremy Grantham quote a great deal lately: “We will learn an enormous amount in the very short term, quite a bit in the medium term and absolutely nothing in the long term. That would be the historical precedent.” That is quite a damning statement about you Humans.

    12. If everyone is a contrarian, no one is a contrarian . . .

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Is The Fed Saying One Thing But Doing Something Very Different. (Ritholtz)
    • Economy Growing Faster Than Expected; But Where Are the Employees? (LATimes)
    • Here’s How The Euro Could Collapse – And Why It’s Unlikely To. (Citywire)
    • Bernanke Admits QE2 May Fail, Requests Fiscal Stimulus Now. (Forbes)
    • The Letter Warren Buffett Should Have Written To The Government. (Ritholtz)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/06/10 – If Everyone Is a Contrarian, No One Is

    Lowering the value of the Dollar is not a goal … it is a strategic by-product.

    From Reuters:

    Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto said on Thursday that lowering the value of the U.S. dollar is not a goal of the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy. “We don’t target or try to manipulate the value of our currency; we focus on our two objectives of price stability and maximum employment,”

    TranslationWe don’t care about the Dollar right now.

    101204 Bernanke-Disavows-Money

    The Rising Cost Of Keeping The U.S. Recovery On Track.

    According to CityWire, in 2010, many emerging economies began to withdraw (tighten) some of the money they had used to stimulate growth.

    But in the U.S. yet more money will be spent in 2011 – with 'QE2' and on welfare – to try and revive the faltering recovery (loosening).

    101203 Country Debt Comparison

    I don't normally reproduce articles verbatim.  However, this piece from Barry RItholtz at the Big Picture deserves to be seen.

    A Dozen Random Things I Am Thinking About . . .

    Every now and again, I like to jot down some random thoughts — about the markets, economy, crowd psychology. It is how I process ideas, intuition, various data inputs.

    Make of this what you will, but these are the random thoughts that seem to be occupying my mind lately:

    1. Markets are frequently disconnected from their expected inputs: Economy, Profits, Tax Policy, Interest Rates. This is more than a mere lag, it is a complex interplay that often looks like randomness — but isn’t.

    2. To many market participants, this seemingly random walk is an exercise in frustrated expectations. Let’s call it “Fooled by Taleb” to separate the true low correlation, random outcomes from the hard-to-understand but non-random events.

    3. The economy’s impact on markets is neither linear nor consistent. (Despite this, some people insist on basing investments on current economic data).

    4. Wisdom consists (in part) of learning what to keep and what to discard. What you purposefully sequester and do not read is just as important as what you do consume. In practice, you I find it helpful to “Quarantine” the sources that are consistently wrong or money losers.

    5. Evolution has shaped Human Beings over many millenia. I suspect Human learning came from adapting to recent experiences. Perhaps this is why people are so backwards looking, suffering extensively from the recency effect: Learning from recent events is a good survival skill, but it turns out to be a terrible investing trait.

    6. I continue to wrestle with the concept of Valuation –it is more of a challenge than I previously believed. Fair value changes relative to numerous inputs, including taxes, interest rates and bond yields. I wonder if Valuation is far less of an objective measure than classically believed by the Graham & Dodd crowd.

    7. Long arcs of time are an abstract philosophical concept, one that seems to elude many investors. While most people understand the idea of time elapsing intellectually, they do not seem to truly grasp cycles, years, and decades intuitively; I wonder if this is due to people being uncomfortable with it emotionally due to other factors (impatience, desire, even mortality).

    8. Discerning crowd sentiment is more challenging than it appears at first blush. There are objective numerical readings, subjective surveys, and lastly, anecdotes. None are perfect tells, all require interpretation.

    9. How someone constructs their rhetoric tells volumes about the underlying strength of their arguments. Abusing data, appealing to emotions, ignoring facts, shifting the debate to secondary or tertiary issues are signs of a weak, poorly reasoned thesis. Investors that learn to recognize the difference between powerful arguments and clever, weak ones are at an advantage.

    10. Speaking of rhetoric: I sometimes wonder if the Expert Fallacy is a fallacy itself. The difficulty lay in some experts adding value, while the bulk do not. If you can identify the difference between the two — which apparently, most folks cannot — its money.

    11. I have been mulling over this Jeremy Grantham quote a great deal lately: “We will learn an enormous amount in the very short term, quite a bit in the medium term and absolutely nothing in the long term. That would be the historical precedent.” That is quite a damning statement about you Humans.

    12. If everyone is a contrarian, no one is a contrarian . . .

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Is The Fed Saying One Thing But Doing Something Very Different. (Ritholtz)
    • Economy Growing Faster Than Expected; But Where Are the Employees? (LATimes)
    • Here’s How The Euro Could Collapse – And Why It’s Unlikely To. (Citywire)
    • Bernanke Admits QE2 May Fail, Requests Fiscal Stimulus Now. (Forbes)
    • The Letter Warren Buffett Should Have Written To The Government. (Ritholtz)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • The Facts About Calories

    Think of this as a public service reminder during the holiday season.

     

    The Cost of Calories
    Via: WeightLoss.org 

    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • The Facts About Calories

    Think of this as a public service reminder during the holiday season.

     

    The Cost of Calories
    Via: WeightLoss.org 

    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Capitalogix Commentary 10/04/10 – When Up Isn’t Really Up

    What does it mean when the President's chief enforcer bails?

    101003 Rahm Bails - Cartoon By Ramirez

    Rahm Emanuel, President Obama's chief of staff, quit to run for Chicago mayor.  Peter Rouse, a senior aide, takes Emanuel's position. Rouse, was Obama's chief of staff when he was a U.S. senator from Illinois.  Saturday Night Live wasted no time putting its spin on the situation.


     

    Likewise, Obama's finance guru and Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers, recently resigned.  Do you think either of these moves will materially affect the market?

    Market Commentary

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is experiencing a "golden cross".  That means the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average at the same time that both moving averages are rising.  This will be the first "golden cross" that the Dow has seen since December 1st, 2005.

     

    101002 Dow Decision Level
    So, how bullish is that pattern? While the "golden cross" is thought of as a positive technical indicator, the historical numbers tell a different story.

    Also dampening bullish spirits, the market indices put in a classic bearish outside reversal day last week.  That means price starts high, but closes near the low of the day.  This pattern is often seen near market tops.  It occurred right at the resistance level from the May highs, with the market relatively overbought.  While MACD shows waning momentum, don't let a pop higher here surprise you.

    Have You Looked at the U.S. Dollar Recently?

    The third quarter was a boon for stocks, but it was a bust for the US dollar.  Since peaking on June 7th, the US Dollar Index has pretty much gone straight down for a decline of 11.62%.  Here is a chart.

     

    101002 US Dollar Over Last Six Months

    Meanwhile, the price of Gold is soaring.  And gold is arguably the least biased form of money.  Consequently, many consider it to be the ultimate store of wealth (and hence, a good measure of relative value).

    So, When Is Up Not Really Up?

    Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume?  Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do. This next chart caught my eye because it shows our big rally (since early 2009) is less than a 10% rally (when it is measured in Gold instead of Dollars).

     

    101002 Dow Priced in Gold
    The Dow/Gold Ratio chart shows the ratio of the price of the Dow to the price of gold. Another way to look at it is the number of ounces of gold it takes to buy one share of the Dow. For example, with the Dow at 10,000 and gold at $1,000, it would require 10 ounces of gold to buy one share of the Dow; so the ratio would be 10. The chart shows that at the recent market lows it took 7.5 ounces, and now it takes 8.21 ounces of gold to buy the Dow.

    This chart highlights one reason that a weak dollar matters.  While the Dow is much higher in dollar terms, it is still declining when priced in Gold.  This indicates that the strength we have seen is more a function of a weaker dollar rather than a real increase from real demand.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Did One Bad Trade Cause the Flash Crash? (Economist & SEC)
    • Lots of Tech Mergers Is A Positive Sign – Who Is Next? (Forbes)
    • Facebook's IPO Likely In Late 2012. (Reuters)
    • Is China's Growth Sustainable, Or Are Strains Showing? (TheWeek)
    • 10 Habits of Mind for Investors. (Big Picture)

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Did the West Attack Iran's Nukes… With a Computer Worm? (TheWeek)
    • VMware's Chief on the 4 Types of Leaders Companies Need. (NYTimes)
    • WSJ's 2010 Technology Innovation Awards. (WSJ)
    • Does Grunting During Tennis Create An Edge? (Kedrosky)
    • Digital Fitness Trainers That Know How to Motivate. (NYTimes)
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Capitalogix Commentary 10/04/10 – When Up Isn’t Really Up

    What does it mean when the President's chief enforcer bails?

    101003 Rahm Bails - Cartoon By Ramirez

    Rahm Emanuel, President Obama's chief of staff, quit to run for Chicago mayor.  Peter Rouse, a senior aide, takes Emanuel's position. Rouse, was Obama's chief of staff when he was a U.S. senator from Illinois.  Saturday Night Live wasted no time putting its spin on the situation.


     

    Likewise, Obama's finance guru and Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers, recently resigned.  Do you think either of these moves will materially affect the market?

    Market Commentary

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is experiencing a "golden cross".  That means the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average at the same time that both moving averages are rising.  This will be the first "golden cross" that the Dow has seen since December 1st, 2005.

     

    101002 Dow Decision Level
    So, how bullish is that pattern? While the "golden cross" is thought of as a positive technical indicator, the historical numbers tell a different story.

    Also dampening bullish spirits, the market indices put in a classic bearish outside reversal day last week.  That means price starts high, but closes near the low of the day.  This pattern is often seen near market tops.  It occurred right at the resistance level from the May highs, with the market relatively overbought.  While MACD shows waning momentum, don't let a pop higher here surprise you.

    Have You Looked at the U.S. Dollar Recently?

    The third quarter was a boon for stocks, but it was a bust for the US dollar.  Since peaking on June 7th, the US Dollar Index has pretty much gone straight down for a decline of 11.62%.  Here is a chart.

     

    101002 US Dollar Over Last Six Months

    Meanwhile, the price of Gold is soaring.  And gold is arguably the least biased form of money.  Consequently, many consider it to be the ultimate store of wealth (and hence, a good measure of relative value).

    So, When Is Up Not Really Up?

    Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume?  Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do. This next chart caught my eye because it shows our big rally (since early 2009) is less than a 10% rally (when it is measured in Gold instead of Dollars).

     

    101002 Dow Priced in Gold
    The Dow/Gold Ratio chart shows the ratio of the price of the Dow to the price of gold. Another way to look at it is the number of ounces of gold it takes to buy one share of the Dow. For example, with the Dow at 10,000 and gold at $1,000, it would require 10 ounces of gold to buy one share of the Dow; so the ratio would be 10. The chart shows that at the recent market lows it took 7.5 ounces, and now it takes 8.21 ounces of gold to buy the Dow.

    This chart highlights one reason that a weak dollar matters.  While the Dow is much higher in dollar terms, it is still declining when priced in Gold.  This indicates that the strength we have seen is more a function of a weaker dollar rather than a real increase from real demand.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Did One Bad Trade Cause the Flash Crash? (Economist & SEC)
    • Lots of Tech Mergers Is A Positive Sign – Who Is Next? (Forbes)
    • Facebook's IPO Likely In Late 2012. (Reuters)
    • Is China's Growth Sustainable, Or Are Strains Showing? (TheWeek)
    • 10 Habits of Mind for Investors. (Big Picture)

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Did the West Attack Iran's Nukes… With a Computer Worm? (TheWeek)
    • VMware's Chief on the 4 Types of Leaders Companies Need. (NYTimes)
    • WSJ's 2010 Technology Innovation Awards. (WSJ)
    • Does Grunting During Tennis Create An Edge? (Kedrosky)
    • Digital Fitness Trainers That Know How to Motivate. (NYTimes)
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Why Some People Say PowerPoint Is the Biggest Enemy in the War Against Terror?

    Can a graphic that looks like a bowl of spaghetti help people understand a complex problem? 

    By now, you may have seen the “Afghanistan Stability” chart.  It is raising questions about the amount of time and effort spent on slides like these … and their point of diminishing returns.

    Isn't Lack of Thinking a Bigger Problem?

    So, is using PowerPoint (or some other tool) really dangerous?  Some claim it is because it can create the illusion of understanding and
    the illusion of control. Here are some interesting commentaries about that from the NYTimes and the comments from FlowingData.

    Do You Focus on the Process or the Result?

    Working on a PowerPoint presentation, mind map, data visualization, or even a business plan … all have something in common. In many respects, the process is more important than the product.

    When a chart (like the one below) is shown out-of-context, I wonder about its construction process. For example:

    • Was it the work of one person, a group, or collection of sub-groups each working on a different part and then coming together to see how what they did fits with the rest?
    • Was it based solely on one perspective, or did they come up with a reciprocal map that represents the other point of view … in order to come up with our plans?
    • Was this map designed to stand alone, or was it background data for a different discussion (I noticed that the slide was numbered 22, and we don't know what came before (or after) it, or how many slides there were in that deck)?

    OK, let's have some fun with the map.

    The Afghanistan Stability Chart.

    According to NBC News' Chief Foreign Correspondent, the goal in Afghanistan is to "convince militants to stop
    fighting and to persuade Afghans sitting on the fence—those unsure
    whether to back the Taliban or President Hamid Karzai’s government—to
    throw their support behind the U.S.-backed government and its security
    forces."

    Fair enough … But if you want to know how we plan to
    accomplish that feat, take a look at the large version of the military's
    amazingly complicated schematic (from the Office of the Joint Chiefs of
    Staff
    ) which outlines the entire strategy. The chart, at least, is a
    bit of a quagmire.

    100522 Afghanistan PowerPoint

    “When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the war,” a General joked.

    Likewise, John Stewart has a few funny things to say on the subject.

    The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
    Afghanistan Stability Chart
    www.thedailyshow.com
    Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]
  • Why Some People Say PowerPoint Is the Biggest Enemy in the War Against Terror?

    Can a graphic that looks like a bowl of spaghetti help people understand a complex problem? 

    By now, you may have seen the “Afghanistan Stability” chart.  It is raising questions about the amount of time and effort spent on slides like these … and their point of diminishing returns.

    Isn't Lack of Thinking a Bigger Problem?

    So, is using PowerPoint (or some other tool) really dangerous?  Some claim it is because it can create the illusion of understanding and
    the illusion of control. Here are some interesting commentaries about that from the NYTimes and the comments from FlowingData.

    Do You Focus on the Process or the Result?

    Working on a PowerPoint presentation, mind map, data visualization, or even a business plan … all have something in common. In many respects, the process is more important than the product.

    When a chart (like the one below) is shown out-of-context, I wonder about its construction process. For example:

    • Was it the work of one person, a group, or collection of sub-groups each working on a different part and then coming together to see how what they did fits with the rest?
    • Was it based solely on one perspective, or did they come up with a reciprocal map that represents the other point of view … in order to come up with our plans?
    • Was this map designed to stand alone, or was it background data for a different discussion (I noticed that the slide was numbered 22, and we don't know what came before (or after) it, or how many slides there were in that deck)?

    OK, let's have some fun with the map.

    The Afghanistan Stability Chart.

    According to NBC News' Chief Foreign Correspondent, the goal in Afghanistan is to "convince militants to stop
    fighting and to persuade Afghans sitting on the fence—those unsure
    whether to back the Taliban or President Hamid Karzai’s government—to
    throw their support behind the U.S.-backed government and its security
    forces."

    Fair enough … But if you want to know how we plan to
    accomplish that feat, take a look at the large version of the military's
    amazingly complicated schematic (from the Office of the Joint Chiefs of
    Staff
    ) which outlines the entire strategy. The chart, at least, is a
    bit of a quagmire.

    100522 Afghanistan PowerPoint

    “When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the war,” a General joked.

    Likewise, John Stewart has a few funny things to say on the subject.

    The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
    Afghanistan Stability Chart
    www.thedailyshow.com
    Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party
    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]
  • Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 03/29/10

    Markets climb a wall of worry … but I don't recall a bull run, like we've seen recently, with so much fear and loathing as a back-drop.

    100329 Political Cartoon Medical Advice for Obama About the Deficit

    The U.S. equity markets have held-up remarkably well, and much better than I expected.

    Yet, the Euro continues to struggle.  It is worth noting that  some traders believe that the Euro can be used to predict the S&P
    500
    .  So, here is a daily chart showing that price is at the mid-line of the downwards sloping trend channel.

    100325 Euro Weakness

    Here is a different way of looking at the Euro's woes.

    image from www.visualeconomics.com

    Here is someone else betting against the Euro.

    Jim Rogers Guarantees Another Recession.

    George Soros' ex-partner at the Quantum Fund isn't afraid to share his thoughts.  In a recent CNBC interview, Jim says he doesn't pay attention to the Fed, and that he expects Western Currencies to be weak. However, many will focus on these comments: “Yes, we’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you … By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession, … and the next time it’s going to be worse, because we’ve shot all of our bullets”. Here is the video.

    For a different look at how the economy's recovery is doing, here is a look at consumer spending.

    Is
    Consumer Spending a Reliable Leading Indicator of GDP?

    The Consumer Metrics Institute produces a U.S.
    consumption index based on actual transaction data for a range of major
    discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and
    vacations. As such, this index was designed to react quickly to
    significant consumer spending changes
    in a number of
    different segments of economy.

    As shown below, their 'Growth Index' has led changes in U.S. GDP reasonably
    well
    . Currently, it disagrees strongly with the upbeat story
    portrayed by
    other leading indicator
    indices.

    100322 Does Consumer Spending Predict GDP

    I hope you have a good week.

    Business Posts Moving the
    Markets
    that I Found Interesting This Week
    :

    Lighter Ideas and
    Fun Links

    that I Found Interesting This Week

    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]
  • Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 03/29/10

    Markets climb a wall of worry … but I don't recall a bull run, like we've seen recently, with so much fear and loathing as a back-drop.

    100329 Political Cartoon Medical Advice for Obama About the Deficit

    The U.S. equity markets have held-up remarkably well, and much better than I expected.

    Yet, the Euro continues to struggle.  It is worth noting that  some traders believe that the Euro can be used to predict the S&P
    500
    .  So, here is a daily chart showing that price is at the mid-line of the downwards sloping trend channel.

    100325 Euro Weakness

    Here is a different way of looking at the Euro's woes.

    image from www.visualeconomics.com

    Here is someone else betting against the Euro.

    Jim Rogers Guarantees Another Recession.

    George Soros' ex-partner at the Quantum Fund isn't afraid to share his thoughts.  In a recent CNBC interview, Jim says he doesn't pay attention to the Fed, and that he expects Western Currencies to be weak. However, many will focus on these comments: “Yes, we’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you … By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession, … and the next time it’s going to be worse, because we’ve shot all of our bullets”. Here is the video.

    For a different look at how the economy's recovery is doing, here is a look at consumer spending.

    Is
    Consumer Spending a Reliable Leading Indicator of GDP?

    The Consumer Metrics Institute produces a U.S.
    consumption index based on actual transaction data for a range of major
    discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and
    vacations. As such, this index was designed to react quickly to
    significant consumer spending changes
    in a number of
    different segments of economy.

    As shown below, their 'Growth Index' has led changes in U.S. GDP reasonably
    well
    . Currently, it disagrees strongly with the upbeat story
    portrayed by
    other leading indicator
    indices.

    100322 Does Consumer Spending Predict GDP

    I hope you have a good week.

    Business Posts Moving the
    Markets
    that I Found Interesting This Week
    :

    Lighter Ideas and
    Fun Links

    that I Found Interesting This Week

    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]