I had someone ask me recently if I was scared of AI surpassing humans. My answer was that (essentially) it already has. Meaning, it already seems inevitable. The question is whether you will benefit from it or fight it? Regardless, it’s going to happen.
Comparatively, humans are slow, weak, and prone to bias. So, yes, AI is better than us at many things.
Until now, humans have been at the top of the food chain because of our intelligence … but I’d also argue it’s because of our intelligence in knowing that we’re not always the most intelligent or capable. We use the tools at our disposal. And there are a lot of great tools being created all around us.
So, how do you ride the wave of the future instead of being capsized by it?
As the world becomes more technical, and we have more tools, it can become overwhelming. Processing the opportunities in front of us today is tough, let alone the possibilities (or inevitabilities) of tomorrow.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing.
Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it, or not).
As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said a different way, you have to choose between chaos or nothing.
It is hard to keep up – and harder to stay ahead.
Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.
But, luckily for you and I … you don’t actually have to do the tech itself. My company may not really do "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We use exponential technologies like high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning.
But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too. Fortunately, it helped me take a step back and see the bigger picture.
The Bigger Picture
While many things are changing around us, the secret is that some things never change.
My father said, not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.
You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built. Because while technology changes, human nature doesn’t. That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting "how'. Why? Because technology doesn't often look for a problem; rather, it is the response to one.
A medium is just a tool. And the tool is just a way to accomplish something more efficiently.
Kodak’s goal should have been to preserve memories – not to sell film. Blockbusters' goal should have been to get movies in homes – not to get people in their stores.
What’s the real goal of your life or your business, and what tools are going to help you do that most efficiently over the next 3-5 years? What do you need to create, and what do you need to destroy? History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
Much like Google's change to Alphabet, Facebook will become a subsidiary of the parent company, Meta. The change comes with a change in focus to the metaverse. Zuckerberg described it as "a set of virtual spaces where you can create and explore with other people who aren't in the same physical space as you." It seems like a focus on VR/AR, but also it seems like a distraction from all the recent bad publicity.
What do you think of the change?
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
It is hard to “predict” the future. Technically, that’s not true … It is easy to predict the future. What’s difficult is to predict the future accurately and consistently.
As we become better and more nuanced at predictive modeling, we look for ways to use technology to “know” things faster. Building dynamic and adaptive models based on discovery and learning lets you compound edges and improve your signal-to-noise ratio.
Another way to improve your predictions is to choose the “right things” to predict. For example, in general, I believe human nature is one of the easier things to predict because even as the world changes, humans remain remarkably consistent. Consequently, instead of predicting technology advances directly, it makes sense to predict the capabilities humans will desire and the likely constraints to getting them.
Here is a video that noted science fiction writer, Arthur C. Clarke, made in 1974. In it, he made some guesses about the future of technology. Pretty impressive!
The entrepreneurial journey is about making the impossible “possible”, the possible “likely”, the likely “inevitable”, and then making the inevitable happen!
Many life-changing (or world-changing) technologies already exist. Which do you believe will have the biggest impacts? Here is a quick and dirty list: Artificial Intelligence, the Blockchain, Quantum Computing, Augmented Reality, Neuro-interfaces, the ability to read and write our genes, and printing organic material (like food or replacement organs).
There is a promise and a peril to each. Nonetheless, we are living in a golden age for exponential technologies that will change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.
