Trading

The Future of Biohacking

Today’s my birthday. I woke up on the right side of the dirt, in America, grateful for the opportunities ahead.

So far, so good.

For me, birthdays also invite a moment to pause and reflect on where I am, where I want to go, and what it’ll take to get there.

On the health front, I’m reminded of a simple truth: A healthy person has a thousand dreams, while an unhealthy one has only one.

Thankfully, I still have many dreams.

We’re lucky to be born late enough in human history that medicine isn’t just about fixing what’s broken—it’s about regeneration and life extension. The real promise isn’t just living longer, but living well longer.

That’s a future worth investing in.

So today, I’m dusting off some notes from a meeting I had years ago—lessons that feel more relevant than ever.

A Chat With The Father of Biohacking

In 2018, I was in Alaska at Steamboat Bay for a CEO retreat. I was spending time with a friend, Dave Asprey, a successful serial entrepreneur, author of several great books, and a thought leader in biohacking. In many ways, he’s the father of modern biohacking.

We recorded a video where Dave did a great job of relating his world to the world of Capitalogix and trading. I share it in part so you can experience his wide range of interests and expertise. It holds up well. I encourage you to watch it.

Via YouTube.

In the video, Dave explains that life evolves through a series of algorithms operating at microscopic levels. Your body and brain are made of tiny parts working like clever little computers. These parts constantly talk to each other, sense what’s happening around them, and change their behavior to keep you alive and thriving.

Nature has been running this amazing program for billions of years, constantly improving through trial and error (that’s evolution).

Dave points out that there are striking similarities between genetics/epigenetics and modern digital algorithms. Markets and businesses make numerous small decisions and adjustments to achieve significant outcomes.

In a sense, Markets and industries function like biological environments where algorithms continuously evolve and adapt.

So really, life and business aren’t magic—they’re just lots of tiny choices happening at once. If you learn how to listen to these choices and guide them wisely, you become better at playing the game. And that’s how evolution, biology, and even markets all tie together.

The lesson? Build systems and habits that are flexible and adaptable, like living things.

It helped me reframe my perspective on my business. But it also got me thinking more about my health and how I wanted the next 20 years of my life to look. As a result, I started taking care of my health and paying more attention to preventive care.

Health is the foundation that gives all ambitions a place to stand.

Focusing on the positive is important, but extending your healthy lifespan starts by being honest with yourself and identifying what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn’t matter if you’re on top of 9 out of 10 things; it’s the 10th that kills you.

The goal isn’t just to stay alive longer; it’s to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I utilize a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to monitor my heart rate, along with various apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. It is essential to recognize that the mind, body, and spirit work together to shape how you live your life.

Where Biohacking Fits In

It’s not surprising that biohacking has become as popular as it has. In a society that encourages (and perhaps even necessitates) an impossible balance between work, responsibilities, and self-care, it makes sense to want to increase efficiency and effectiveness.

Biohacking helps you do more with less. Biohacking is popular because it promises to help you achieve peak performance via the path of least resistance.

Having trouble with sleep, but don’t want to stop using your phone before bed? Wear blue-light blocking glasses.

Not getting enough results at the gym? Work out “smarter,” not harder, by using cryotechnology and intelligent lifting machines.

While biohacking started as tricks like that – nootropics to help your mind, light and sound machines to decrease stress – it’s becoming increasingly tech-centric and augmentation-based.

In Sweden, thousands of Swedes are having microchips inserted under their skin to speed up their daily routines. They use chips to open locked doors, store contact information, and access the train.

The Future of Biohacking

Long-term, it’s likely you’ll see it moving toward exoskeletons, AR/XR experiences, and, unsurprisingly, sex toys. It’s also being used to create artificial organs and counteract memory loss. Companies leading this movement are Neuralink, Biohax International, and Digiwell. While it’s currently being adopted primarily by fast movers and technocrats, it’s pragmatic to think that more widely adopted versions of this will emerge as technology becomes standardized and protections are put in place.

For all the excitement, it’s necessary to remain skeptical and patient. DIY biohacking raises several ethical concerns, particularly regarding data protection and cybersecurity. As a reminder, when it comes to cybersecurity, you, the user, are the biggest weakness.

There’s no stopping this train, but there’s still time to ensure it stays on track.

If you’re looking to get started, here’s an hour-long conversation with Dave Asprey about his favorite optimizations.

Here’s to having a thousand dreams, leveraging the best of today’s medical advances, and investing not just in years added, but quality within those years.

Onwards!

July 27, 2025
Digesting a Bigger Future

We live in a world where technology changes quickly and often, while human nature remains relatively unchanged.

For most of us, human nature is the key variable.

I suspect Henry Ford focused on that when he said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right."

Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is often difficult for humans. Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to comprehend exponential growth, let alone its implications. For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster, and RadioShack.

The world changes quickly.

Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it or not).

As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said another way, you have to choose between chaos and nothing.

It's hard to keep up – and even harder to stay ahead.

Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

My company may not be doing "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We utilize exponential technologies, such as high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning, to amplify intelligence and make data-driven, evidence-based decisions in real-time, all the time.

But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

Due to my age, experience, and tendency to be a pioneer, I've been battling technology for decades.

Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend, and I still love it. But my relationship with it is different now.

I recognize that there are things that change and things that stay the same. And for me, the things that "stay the same" tend to be more important.

Paradoxically, the part of me that stays the same can still change and grow – that is how you become more (and a more evolved version) of that thing.

The Bigger Picture

My father said that not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built. That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting 'how'.

Why is that often the case? Because technology that solves a problem is more profitable and popular than technology searching for a problem to solve.

Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some remarkably accurate predictions about the future of technology.

via Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.

Where do you see this going?

Onwards.

July 20, 2025
How Has The Job Market Changed Since 1988?

1998 was a long time ago. My oldest son was just a twinkle in my eye. Michael Jackson was touring the world for his ‘Bad’ album, and ‘Rain Man’ topped the movie charts. It’s also the year that Microsoft Office was released.

A lot has changed since then. For obvious reasons, the U.S. labor market has changed radically since then … but how different is it really?

via visualcapitalist

The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we can assume it’s relatively accurate.

In 1988, consumer-facing roles, such as salespeople and cashiers, were the most common jobs in 46 states. Comparing that to 2024 highlights how much less reliance we have on brick-and-mortar stores.

While not entirely different, now fast food workers are the most common job in 15 states. This is unsurprising in light of the shift toward lower-wage & flexible-hour service jobs. Meanwhile, retail salespersons are still the top job in 11 states.

Operations managers, home health aides, and freight movers have made significant gains in the U.S. labor market.

I was surprised to see how many home health aides there were, but considering the aging U.S. population, it makes sense.

The U.S. is still clearly a consumer economy; however, the focus has switched towards logistics and supply chain, as people shop increasingly online.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of work. People talk about change, but so far, things have felt relatively stable. That’s about to shift. AI is advancing faster than most realize—we’re still early on the curve, but the steep climb is beginning.

We’re entering a phase where AI is no longer just a tool—it’s becoming a collaborator in both our personal and professional lives. This shift will reshape how we work, create, and make decisions. For business leaders, that means looking past the hype and focusing on real value, workforce readiness, and building trust. For employees, it means adapting to a new kind of teamwork—one that includes AI as a core partner in creativity and productivity.

How will those changes show up in a chart like this?

We live in interesting times!

July 20, 2025
When Worlds Collide: Timeless Wisdom & Evolutionary Technology in Trading with Matthew Piepenburg

Back in 2020, I had a Zoom meeting with Matthew Piepenburg of Signals Matter. Of course, being the height of the Pandemic, it was over Zoom. Even though it was a private discussion, there was so much value in our discussion that we decided to share parts of it here.

While Matt's understanding of markets is based on Macro/Value investing, we use advanced AI and quantitative methods for our approach.

As you might expect, there are a lot of differences in how we view the world, decision-making, and the current market environment. Nonetheless, we share a lot of common beliefs as well.

Our talk explores several interesting areas and concepts. I encourage you to watch it below.

Via YouTube.

To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.

While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom".

Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow?

That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation … they remain relevant.

Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one.

Hope you enjoyed the video.

Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about.

Onwards!

July 13, 2025
The Benner Cycle: How Not To Predict Markets

When I first became interested in trading, I would often consult many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac.

While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye.

Still, it seems better than using astrology to trade.

Want something easy to predict? Traders love patterns … from the simple head-and-shoulders to Fibonacci sequences and the Elliot Wave Theory.

Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875. That year, he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years. Let's check it out.

Here's what it does get right … markets go up, and then they go down … and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high … It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.

Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.

However, it was close to the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash, so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models. However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on—and what to ignore.

Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none … they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences.

This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, it doesn't make it a good recommendation. Those models do some things well. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn't the area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals … yet.

We're seeing bots improve at running businesses and writing code, but off-the-shelf tools like ChatGPT are still known for generating hallucinations and overconfidence.

Be careful out there.

July 6, 2025
Market Growth in the First Half of 2025.

According to S&P Global, the U.S. market cap rose by 4.7% in the past 6th months. This represents a modest gain compared to the average market capitalization growth of 12.2% during the same period.

Leaders in growth were South Korea, Spain, Germany, Italy, and Brazil.

via VisualCapitalist

We have previously discussed this, but in addition to investments in technology and artificial intelligence, global capital is also being directed toward emerging markets, where many businesses are being established.

At first glance, some may see U.S. underperformance, but it can also be read as a sign of relative maturity and stability. Another potential perspective is that U.S. companies have already experienced explosive growth in recent years, particularly in sectors such as tech and AI, suggesting the market may currently be in a phase of consolidation.

While it's always great to see explosive growth, people undervalue resilience and steady growth, especially in light of the volatile first quarter of the year.

Time will tell!

July 6, 2025
Diminishing Returns in AI: The Most Common AI Mistake
At some point, more of the same stops paying off … it is called the law of diminishing returns.

via Sketchplanations
Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc.

This concept applies almost everywhere.

It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory.

Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).

And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme … Too much of a good thing is a bad thing!

And of course … Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

A recent study on the effects of ChatGPT use on brain activity also supports this theme.

via "Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing Task"
The study divided 54 subjects into three groups, and asked them to write several SAT essays using ChatGPT, Google, or nothing at all. They used an EEG to record the writers' brain activity. ChatGPT users showed the lowest brain engagement. Over time, ChatGPT users got lazier.

As a result, the ChatGPT essays also ended up lacking original thought and sounding similar.

The paper suggests that the use of LLMs could harm learning and retention. The group that wrote without any help showed the highest neural connectivity, and higher brain activation in creativity ideation, memory load, and semantic processing. This group was more engaged and curious, and expressed higher satisfaction with their work.

The paper hasn't been peer-reviewed yet and has a small sample size.

Ultimately, I think it's telling us something we probably could have already guessed. If you're not actually the one reading or writing something … you're not going to absorb the information as well. Your brain isn't going to activate as well. And if you're not finding other places to train your brain, you'll get worse at critical thinking.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about my research process and how AI has both bolstered and hindered certain aspects of it. I'm casting a wider net, but going less deep.

So now, I’m exploring how to maintain a balance. I still want to leverage AI’s value, while reintroducing a layer of slowness and reflection into the process. Maybe that means manually summarizing some articles. Maybe it means pausing to journal about what I’ve read, or discussing it with someone. The goal is not to abandon the efficiency — but to ensure that efficiency doesn’t come at the cost of depth. - via "Is AI Making Your And Your Team Smarter?"

This isn't a call to avoid AI or to slow down its development. It's a call to deliberation and intentionality. Students are flaunting that they're using ChatGPT to shirk the system. Companies are releasing AI-written copy not only on their websites but also in press releases. Humans are falling in love with chatbots and leaving their spouses.

Meanwhile, AI is also the underpinning of countless enhancements and increased productivity.

The same thing happened with the Internet.

At a certain point, overreliance becomes a crutch, not a tool.

I bet AI makes unintelligent and lazy people lazier and less intelligent.

I'm positive it can make YOU smarter and more effective if you use it in moderation and to support your unique abilities.

Onwards!
June 22, 2025
My Artificial Intelligence Journey

Time seems to go faster as I get older. Likewise, technology seems to be advancing faster than ever, too.

Take AI as an example… even though I've been involved in this field for many years, I'm surprised by how rapidly it's improving now.

I suspect that part of the surprise comes from comparing the current pace of change to my memories of how long it took to improve in the past. Even though I had a sense of the quickening, the thing about exponential technologies is that there's a tipping point … and clearly we're past that point on the curve.

I'm often met with surprise when I talk about my AI journey … because it began in 1991, when it was still hard to spell AI.

Looking back, it makes a lot more sense to me than it did as I was moving through it. Here is a video about that journey and what it means for you and your future.

Click here to view the transcript of the video.

Looking back on my life and career, one could argue that I got my start in AI with my most recent company, Capitalogix, which was founded over 20 years ago. Or, perhaps, we could go back further and say it started with my previous company, IntellAgent Control (which was an early AI company, focused on the creation and use of intelligent agents). By today's standards, the technology we used back then was too simple to be considered AI, but at the time, we were on the cutting edge.

Maybe we should go further back and say it started when I became the first lawyer in my firm to use a computer … or was it when I first fell in love with technology?

The truth is … I've spent my whole life on this path. My fascination with making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and getting better results probably started when I was two years old (because of the incident discussed in the video).

Ultimately, the starting point is irrelevant. Looking back, it seems inevitable. The decisions I made, the people I met, and my experiences … they all led me here.

However, at any point in the journey, if you asked, "Is this where you thought you'd end up?" I doubt that I'd have said yes.

I've always been fascinated by what makes people successful and how to become more efficient and effective. In a sense, that's what AI does. It's a capability amplifier.

When I transitioned from being a corporate securities lawyer to an entrepreneur, Artificial Intelligence happened to be the best vehicle I found to do that. It made sense then, and it makes sense now.

Like most things in life, it's easy to see the golden thread looking backwards, but it's a lot harder to see projecting forwards.

I wouldn't have it any other way. It certainly keeps things interesting.

Onwards!

June 22, 2025
Major Asset Class Performance Since 2020

Last week, we highlighted the growth of cryptocurrencies. This week, we're taking a look at the performance of various asset classes during the previous 5 years – including Bitcoin.

To start, let's get a sense of where things stand year-to-date.

This has been a "strange" year. As someone who follows Markets, I'm still surprised by how many times I'm tempted to say that.

In addition, I'm also surprised by how well global assets have fared year-to-date.

Here's a high-level overview.

via CapitalSpectator.

After a seemingly significant string of losses, U.S. stocks experienced a surprising rebound in May, marking their first monthly gain since January. This upturn propelled U.S. equities to the top of the performance leaderboard among major asset classes during the month. The rally was driven by broad strength across global markets, though some segments, particularly bonds in developed markets, faced declines.

Equities and bonds typically have an inverse relationship. Recently, both markets have been reacting sharply — stocks up, bonds down. This dynamic reflects uncertainty. The market is balancing hope and fear simultaneously — hope in economic recovery and corporate earnings, and fear of tighter monetary policy.

Game theory suggests that the conflicting incentives between growth-focused and risk-averse investors create a dynamic equilibrium sustaining this paradox. However, this brings up an uncomfortable question for investors:

What if the erosion of bonds’ safe haven triggers a systemic liquidity crisis when protection is most needed?

That is where a longer-term lens is particularly helpful, both for providing context and offering insights into portfolio mix and diversification strategies.

The infographic illustrates how major asset classes performed each year over five years, highlighting the impact of external shocks and policy changes. It emphasizes the importance of diversification by showing how different assets respond uniquely to economic shifts, enabling investors to identify risks and opportunities in recent market cycles.

via Visual Capitalist.

Bitcoin has performed better than I expected during the past five years, attracting both institutional and retail investors. Meanwhile, gold has seen renewed interest as falling interest rates and easing political uncertainty have led some investors to seek safer assets, reflecting a shift toward lower risk tolerance in segments of the market.

It's interesting to see the dichotomy between these two asset classes and their growth, despite their almost inverse profiles.

Meanwhile, 2025 has been a rocky year for many asset classes. If you like potentially meaningful (but likely meaningless) factoids, 2025 has seen the S&P 500's fifth-worst start to a year in history.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out.

June 15, 2025
Is Crypto Going Mainstream in 2025?

Humans are good at recognizing significant changes on the horizon, but not nearly as good at understanding the second and third-order consequences of those changes.

A great example is the Internet. As it spread, most adults understood that it would bring “big changes”. However, even as a tech entrepreneur at the time, I didn’t fully grasp what the rise of the Internet would cause or make possible.

I feel the same way today about the rise of AI. It literally will change everything.

Close behind that is what’s happening in Crypto.

Where Attention Goes, Money Flows

I don’t claim to be a crypto expert or fan. Historically, I’ve been skeptical and resistant on many levels. Nevertheless, I've always argued the blockchain was here to stay. Now, even Crypto seems to be becoming an inevitability.

Governments are becoming supporters. Regulators are falling in line. Big banks and industry are building infrastructure. New giants are forming. Coinbase recently joined the S&P 500. Circle just had a wildly successful IPO. And the performance of stocks like these hints at the growing market appetite for crypto businesses.

Currently, Crypto’s market cap is over $3 trillion. At the beginning of Trump’s presidency, the cryptocurrency markets experienced a significant surge. Since Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024, Bitcoin has surged 60 percent, reaching record highs. However, Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency experiencing a surge; even meme coins are seeing a massive increase in value.

Nevada recently hosted a Bitcoin conference, featuring speakers such as Vice President JD Vance, Trump’s two eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, as well as White House crypto advisor David Sacks.

Despite the growth (and Trump’s support), there are still mainstream obstacles … obstacles that may be addressed by increased investment in stablecoins. For context, countries such as the UAE and Vietnam boast higher rates of cryptocurrency ownership than the United States.

Stablecoins Are Rising

A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to a reference asset like a fiat currency (e.g., U.S. dollar) or a commodity (e.g., gold). This contrasts with other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, which can experience significant price fluctuations. They serve many purposes, but ultimately believe they’re an interesting way to store value on-chain and take steps into the crypto world.

The stablecoin market in 2025 is dominated by a handful of major platforms and issuers, recognized for their scale, transparency, and integration into both traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems. The two largest and most respected stablecoin platforms are Tether and Circle.

    Tether (USDT)

•Market Position: Tether remains the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, with over $140 billion in circulation and controlling more than 60% of the stablecoin market.

•Key Features: USDT is widely used across centralized exchanges, DeFi protocols, and global payment networks. It is primarily backed by U.S. Treasury bills and managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, providing a reserve base comparable to that of major national treasuries.

    Circle (USDC)

•Market Position: USDC is the second-largest stablecoin, with a market cap exceeding $60 billion.

•Key Features: Known for its transparency, Circle publishes weekly attestations of reserves, which are held in cash and short-term U.S. government treasuries.

Stablecoin funding is projected to 10X.

CBInsights via Voronoi

When cryptocurrency started to gain popularity, I expressed concerns about how banks and governments would resist widespread adoption until they could introduce regulation and gain control over it. I remember confidently saying that, throughout history, governments have always protected the right to print and tax coin. That is still true … it just means something different to me, now, than it did when I said it.

I’m starting to pay more attention to Crypto, blockchain, and other emerging DeFi technologies.

I’m seeing an increasing flow of talent, opportunities, and resources to this space.

For example, major payment players like Mastercard and Visa are allowing stablecoin transactions and even creating their own coins.

I do believe growth in stablecoins will also result in growth in other forms of cryptocurrency as well.

For context, here are the best-performing cryptocurrencies of 2024.

via VisualCapitalist

I still won’t pretend to be knowledgeable about the various coins, but I recognize that they are becoming more common and useful as speculation markets.

All in all, I believe we are witnessing the birth of another blue ocean, and we can expect increased attention and investment to continue.

Onwards!

June 8, 2025