Science

  • Working From Home… Forever?

    Almost everyone – barring essential workers – has been working from home for over two months at this point. 

    So, on some level, we all have a pretty good understanding of the pros and cons of the work-from-home lifestyle. Despite some of the potential detriments, many companies are realizing that productivity hasn't dropped the way they expected. 

    In fact, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, just announced that henceforth his employees won't have the obligation of coming into the office. They can work from home forever if that's what they choose. 

    Dt950903shc0via Dilbert (September 1995)

    It's interesting to see how fast this pandemic changed "normal" in regard to business operations, shopping, etc. It is another reminder of how adaptable humans and society are – and how that has helped us survive and thrive throughout time. 

    My team has been working remotely since the beginning of March, and so far they've stepped up to the challenge. I've been impressed with the productivity, the hours they've worked, and the connection and collaboration achieved despite the loss of physical proximity.  I've heard similar stories from friends around the globe, in many industries.

    Nonetheless, I don't believe that the level of remote work and productivity we've experienced will continue.  Several things contributed to this level of productivity and output.  First, the world shut down and people had little else to do.  Second, during scary times, doing something productive and feeling like you are contributing are both comforting and therapeutic.   Third, I feel like people felt that it was an "all hands on deck" emergency, where many companies or industries were fighting for survival. 

    Time kills all things … and part of adapting is to make the "New", well, "Normal".

    That doesn't mean that remote work is bad.  Nor does it mean that we can't learn from the experience.  It is just that the shiny newness will fade and human nature will kick back in as we settle into the new normal.

    Texas is supposedly "Open for Business" – but our office will remain mostly unused.  A survey of our team found that 75% didn't believe it was smart or safe to return to the office yet. 

    Our next target date is June 15th.  In the meantime, the office is open for people who want or need it.  We just don't expect many to be there.

    We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable.  Still, I'm curious how time and human nature will affect the level of work done in the next month (compared to what was done or achieved in the prior month).  What we do now really does have the power to change the future.

    Personally, to keep productivity up while at home, I've dedicated a certain space – and time – to work. That routine, combined with not muddying the space with other activities, has been helpful. A side benefit is that I've also made time for mindfulness and exercise.  Combine that with healthier food (meaning way fewer restaurant meals or entertainment calories) and the health benefits are obvious.

    What habits do you want to bring back to your world when it re-opens?

    I'm also curious to hear about the methods and tools you're using to stay productive.   

    Onwards.

  • Selective Attention: What Are You Missing?

    Sticking with the philosophy theme, I encourage you to watch this video below on selective attention. 

    Daniel Simons' experiments on visual awareness have become famous.  The primary conclusion drawn from his research is that we can miss incredibly obvious things, right in front of us, if our attention is focused elsewhere.

    While watching the video, count how many passes the team in white makes. 

    This is worth doing so you experience it yourself.

    OK, click the video to do it now.

    via Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris (Click Here To Read The Full Paper)

    First, did you get the number of passes correct? Second, did you see the gorilla?

    If you have already seen this video or heard of the study, it's much easier, but most people absolutely miss the Gorilla, despite it not being hidden. 

    Think about how often your focus blinds you to the obvious.

    This next video demonstrates "change blindness".  In an experiment, 75% of the participants didn't notice that the experimenter was replaced by a different person.

     

    via Derren Brown

    Warning: Objects In Your Attention Span Are Fewer Than You Perceive.

    It's well known that we often miss objects in our field of view due to limited attention and change blindness, but, it's true with more than just sight. Moment by moment, the brain selectively processes information it deems most relevant. Experiments, like these, show the limits of our capacity to encode, retain, and compare visual information from one glance to the next. 

    More importantly, this suggests that our awareness of our visual surroundings is far more sparse than most people intuitively believe.  Consequently, our intuition can deceive us far more often than we perceive.

     

    Cg5594e05e6c731via Pickles

    As an entrepreneur, when I focus fully on something, it's as if everything else goes away. That level of focus can be a gift – but it can also be a curse. In Genius Network, we have a form we fill out at the beginning of each meeting. In it is a diagram where you rate your score on 8 factors: physical environment, career, money, health, friends & family, significant other, personal & intellectual growth, and fun & recreation

    It's rare that I'm fully succeeding in all 8 … we only have so much focus and bandwidth, it's inevitable I'll miss things. Clearly, in an information-rich environment, attention is a scarce and essential resource. So, pay attention (or automate the things you know need to be done right, every time).

    What are you currently prioritizing, and what's falling to the side due to that focus? What are you missing?

    Hope this was a helpful reminder. Let me know what you think about posts like this.  Thanks.

  • A Look At Razors (No, Not That Kind)

    In philosophy, a razor is a rule of thumb that allows one to eliminate unlikely solutions or actions in relation to a hypothesis. They're called razors because they shave off those unlikely explanations. 

    Most people have heard of Occam's Razor … even if you don't recognize the name, I bet you recognize the idea of abductive reasoning. 

    When presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the answer that makes the fewest assumptions.

    Essentially, the fewer assumptions a solution requires, the more likely it is to be true. As with any rule of thumb, it's a good starting point but is not definitive. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule.  It is still a good starting point for intellectual conjecture. 

    Comic OCcams Razor

    I recently found out there are more philosophical razors, and they're all interesting.  Here are some of the more interesting ones:

    I've had to remind myself about Hanlon's Razor a lot recently.  Also the other kind …

     

    3E55C09D-FADE-4B6B-9BDB-3A62A3FF9B8D_1_201_a

    As I told my mother on a Coronavirus Quarantine Mother's Day, "Yes, I know I need a haircut and a shave."  

    I'm planning on getting them on May 19th, because our part of Texas is opening up to a new normalcy that week.

    I hope you are doing well and staying positive.

    Looking forward to seeing people in real life again soon!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 3rd, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Elon Musk’s Twitter Tirade

    Elon Musk wiped $14 billion dollars (9.5%) off Tesla's value with one tweet. 

    He went on a Twitter tirade focused on the unfairness of COVID-19 lockdowns, on selling all of his personal possessions, and singing the Star-Spangled Banner. 

    The tweet that took the cake was "Tesla stock price is too high imo" (in my opinion).

    Screen Shot 2020-05-03 at 10.30.15 AMvia Elon Musk

    Musk also announced that he and his girlfriend, Grimes (who is a musician), are scheduled to have their baby on Monday.

    Back to business … remember that Musk has run afoul of the SEC for tweeting about Tesla shares in 2018, when he tweeted about potentially taking Tesla private. That is was recently settled. As part of that, Musk agreed to a pre-approval process for tweets that included public statements that could move Tesla's stock price. 

    Perhaps he forgot? 

    Sometimes, less is more!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – April 26th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • The Show Must Go On (But In VR)

    Several states are conditionally reopening. 

    As they reopen, it's important to think about a new normal. I'm excited about what we'll accomplish on the backside of this pandemic. 

    It challenged what we do and how we do it.  In many ways, the thing that doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

    With that said, I saw this video, and it struck a chord. It shows a famous orchestra playing the theme to 2001: A Space Odyssey updated for 2020's social distancing. You’ve got classical music played by classical musicians – together, but only via technology.  This new form borrows from the past but creates something new.  As a result, we experience a new dawn.

    via Opera North

    I encourage you to think about what the Quarantine made better for you, your family, your business, the country, or the world?

     Sure, there are things that suck … but there are things that surprised! 

    Think about the things that you did more of during this period.  Are there new things that will make sense to continue as we move back to normal?  Are there things that you did less of – and it somehow made things better (or made room for better things)?

    How can you combine the best of the old with the best of the new to create something even better?

    Things are going back to normal … but you get to decide your new normal … and it can be better than your past.

    Stay safe and enjoy the ride,

  • Killing Time: COVID-19 and Media Consumption

    For most, being quarantined means significantly more screen-time.

    Whether you're using it productively or unproductively, you're likely consuming much more media than before. 

    That can be a double-edged sword. It has the potential to increase your understanding of events – but also increases the likelihood of echo chambers and the intake of misinformation (aka fake news). 

    So, in this quarantine, what exactly are people looking at, and how are they staying informed?

    VisualCapitalist put together various infographics on how different generations are consuming content.

    Supp-1-Activities-Covid-Media-1via visualcapitalist

    Unsurprisingly, younger generations are playing games, and millennials are focusing on food (cooking recipes and staying healthy while quarantined).  Meanwhile, the older generations are still sticking primarily to broadcast TV. 

    Screen Shot 2020-04-19 at 11.54.40 AM(To View Other Generations Click Here) via visualcapitalist

    Regardless of where you're consuming, it's important to manage what you're consuming, and how much you're consuming. You need to make sure you're using reliable resources and managing your time and energy. Too much can leave you worse off. 

    Sometimes, less is more.

     

  • The Age of AI: How Far Is Too Far?

    Let's take a break from talking about the Coronavirus to talk about something else that will affect the global population. 

    Of course, it's the pace of innovation and the effects of AI. I've been on the record for years saying things like

    It can be difficult to have a nuanced discussion around AI online. There's a lot of PopSci around it, people conflate a very diverse range of algorithms and intentions into the general "AI", and realistically when you get too in-depth into what algorithms are best for what problems, most people lose interest. 

    That's why I'm personally a proponent of any discussions around AI. Awareness is important, and if more people can understand the basics, then some subset of them will become better educated… rinse and repeat. 

    Robert Downey Jr. and YouTube partnered for an 8-part docuseries on the Age of AI. I've only watched one episode, but that episode did a decent job of addressing the highest-level issues with AI. 

     

    via YouTube Originals

    I won't go through the whole video with you – because  you're quarantined and I think it's worth watching, but there are a couple of points I wanted to re-emphasize. 

    Your Data Is Becoming More Important, Not Less Important

    "Everyone's concerned about identity theft. Meanwhile, they're giving all their data for free on the internet. I'm what I like. I'm what I don't like. I'm where I go, I'm who I know. I'm what I search. I'm my thumbprint. I am my data" – will.i.am

    My son, Zach, has ultimately given up on privacy – his argument is that everyone's information is out there anyway. Even my eldest son, Ben, who is a cybersecurity expert, has semi-resigned himself to his data being out there. He takes many precautionary measures but recognizes that he's not truly anonymous. 

    In the video, Will.I.Am is getting an authentic reproduction of his face, mannerisms, and voice – they even got the pimple he had during the day of filming. In doing so, he specifically asks for the voice to be a bit robotic. He does this "for his mom" but in reality, it's to make clear – this is a robot, not me. It's avoiding the Uncanny Valley. 

    We're at an intersection where it's going to become harder to decide what's real and what's fake. With deepfake video and audio, protecting your personal brand and identity becomes difficult, and simultaneously more important. 

    The Path Forward

    The road to AI supremacy is long and fraught with booby traps, potential missteps, and ethical issues. Questions like "how far is too far?" will have to be answered, and countries will likely strive to unite around shared rules of ethical AI. 

    If there's anything that makes me confident about our ability to successfully travel that road, it's looking at humanity's ability to adapt. The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning, but our definition of the machine simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day to day life. 

    AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical. 

    Onwards!

  • What Can My Dogs Teach Us About Trading?

    I wrote this back in 2008. With minor updates, it seems relevant again.

    IMG_0614Some dogs run fast; other dogs do tricks … my 100-pound lab, Duke's best talent was his ability to remain immobile in almost any situation (some call it "laziness" … I prefer "calm" or being "even-tempered").

    At the other end of the spectrum are our two small dogs, Boo and Jasper. Boo, our 20-pound mix between a Beagle and a Boston terrier. Let's just say that he has a higher metabolism than Duke. 

    When Boo hears a noise, he lets out an involuntary, barely audible, sound.  His body becomes rigid and his head cocks.  He becomes alert and carefully tunes his ears to their most sensitive setting, seeking any information that will help identify the "danger." He's now primed for the next intrusion.

    Usually, there are no other disturbances to follow, and the noise is cataloged and soon forgotten. His alertness level slowly subsides over the next 10-15 minutes or so.  He'll go back to napping, a little more fitfully this time … and just a little bit on edge.

    Things get a little more interesting when another noise surfaces shortly after the first one.  What could once be dismissed now must be treated as a threat – and just to be safe, a threat of the highest order.  Now the appropriate response is a series of barks, nervous glances, pacing, rushing off in the direction of the noise to investigate, and a barrage of barks meant to sound more menacing than the source of the noise.  Who or what is it? How much harm can they cause? How grave is the threat?

    Jasper, our high-anxiety mutt, is never off alert. He doesn't know what's a threat, and what's not, so he's always creating threats out of nothing and riling up our other dogs. 

    IMG_9824Duke is a different story.  Nothing upsets Duke more than Boo or Jasper getting on high alert.  The same noise that prompted Jasper and Boo to become alert does nothing to Duke.  However, the first time that they make noise,  Duke becomes alert. The second time they make noise, Duke starts vocalizing; and the third time, all 4 of our dogs start yapping. Once they start yapping, then the neighbor's dogs start yapping, and suddenly our neighborhood is a cacophony of dog barks.

    The same thing happens in the market with people.

    In the market, it is the second noise – and subsequent noises – that creates the equivalent of the Homeland Security "Red Alert." Once an elevated level of alertness has been established, it takes a long period of relative calm for it to subside.  And when on "Red Alert" … any additional noises (for example, the responses of the other market participants) – big or small – will highlight, magnify, and further validate the issue.

    But, like in the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," even legitimate threats are ignored after too many false alarms (or prolonged periods of constant alert).  So, bad news about the economy isn't as likely to get people excited after the past few weeks.

    As people (or bots) become "used" to today's new normal, It'll be interesting to see what sprouts up. The longer away from the initial episode, the more real the effect can be attributed. 

    The unfortunate reality is that the Boo and Jasper style "overreaction" to a crisis can exacerbate the long-term effects of the crisis. To balance that, on the macro level, a stronger pandemic response has been shown to increase economic recovery.

    This has been the theme from the beginning. Don't personally panic, but respond aggressively on the city, state, and national level. 

    Food for thought.