Science

  • What It Was Like Buying a Computer in 1994

    We take for granted a lot of the technology we have today. Computers and phones have evolved so fast that it's hard to remember that they haven't been around for many years. When my youngest son was born in 1993,  cassette tapes and the Sony Walkman were still popular, I had a wired phone in my car, and we had a Macintosh-II in the study. 

    IMG_4907

    Everything in this photo now exists in the cheapest of smartphones. 

    For a blast from the past and a look back at what used to be top-of-the-line … here's a video of people buying a computer in 1994. 

     

    via David Hoffman

    Video transfer and playback. 160-megabyte hard drive. 32 megahertz. All for the low price of $2,000. 

    Pretty cool to see how far we've come!  Still, someday soon, they will look back at the tech we have now as "primitive" and "quaint".

    I can't wait!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 4th, 2020

    Did you watch the first presidential debate this week? I have friends on both sides of the fence, but we all agreed the debate was a mess. 

    243958

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     

    Trading Links:

     

  • Can A Minute Be Faster? A Look At The Internet Minute

    As I get older, time seems to move faster … but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

    Technology is a powerful force function.

    Every couple of years I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

    In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

    Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

    Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

    • The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion
    • Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion
    • Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting.
    • The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase!

    Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

    • 4 million search queries on Google
    • Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
    • Email users send 204 million messages

    Over the course of its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

    So, what does the internet look like in 2020?

    Internet-minute-2020DOMO via VisualCapitalist

    Partially as a result of the quarantine, you're seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

    This year, DOMO also created a chart that shows the services that have appeared in the graphic since 2012. It's an interesting way to look at the relevancy and staying power of different companies and technologies. 

    Data-never-sleeps-wheel-over-time-5

    We're currently in a time period of massive competition and turnover. Innovation means incumbents are being challenged every day, and the status quo doesn't stay that way for long. Even within the S&P 500, you're seeing companies stay a member for shorter periods of time.  

    You have to stay on your toes to maintain an edge. I think you can expect increased competition, increased volume, and as a result, increased noise vying for your attention or fueling your distraction. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – September 27th, 2020

    243750

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     
     
     

    Trading Links:

     
     

  • AI & Intellectual Property With Rich Goldstein

    It has been a crazy ride.

    I studied psychology and philosophy at Duke in the early '80s.  Then I got both an MBA and a law degree at Northwestern University in Chicago. 

    My first job out of school was doing corporate and securities work at a law firm in Dallas.  By the early '90s, I knew that I was an entrepreneur. 

    Regardless, the path seemed random as I was going down it … but looking back, it all seems to make some form of sense. 

    I recently did a podcast with a patent lawyer friend, Rich Goldstein. We talk about that, what it's like working with my son, the difference between practicing law and creating AI, innovation, and the role of Intellectual Property and its protection. 

    I think it's a good listen. Check it out. 

     

  • The Growth of Home Fitness (and Fitness Tracking)

    Home fitness isn't a new trend, but we've come a long way from the Aerobics videos of my youth …

    The technology of home workouts has also improved a lot, even before COVID-19 put it into overdrive. 

    From YouTube channels with any type of workout you could look for, to simple machines for any type of workout you're looking for. 

    I've shared articles before about some of my favorite tools

    • Carol – An AI Fitness bike specializing in High-Intensity Interval Training
    • Power Plate – Whole Body Vibration to help with stretching and bodyweight exercises
    • x3 Bar – Resistance Bands to replace weightlifting equipment
    • Tonal – A smart home gym

    So, how has the quarantine affected the industry?

    Home-fitness-apps-OC_v2-2via VisualCapitalist

    Worldwide, health & fitness app downloads have grown by 46%. With a mass majority of that being in India. On top of downloads, daily active users have also increased by 24% worldwide. 

    Is Home Fitness Here to Stay?

    Health & fitness apps have been a big part of my arsenal, far before social distancing was a thing, and they'll continue to be an important part of my future fitness plans. 

    Many people prefer the gym/class environment for workouts, so home workouts will never represent a major proportion of the market, but it's non-trivial and continues to grow. 

    More likely to continue to grow in use are the tracking and mindfulness apps. 

    I like several guided meditation apps.

    In addition, I like these too.

    • Focus@Will (background music for different moods)
    • Brain.FM (AI created music to enhance focus, relaxation, meditation, naps & sleep)
    • Meditation Music (5-minute songs, inhale at the bell, exhale at the next bell … repeat)
    • Zen Wellness (courses about meditation, Qi Gong, etc.)
    • Muse (brain sensing headband and app to help you know whether you are relaxing)

    I also recommend:

    • Hapbee – A device that lets you choose how to feel
    • Apollo Neuro – Wearable wellness and stress relief
    • 40 Years of Zen – This is a 5-day program that leverages neurofeedback technology and guidance to help you unlock and expand your potential.

    For fitness tracking, I use: 

    • Oura Ring (personal health tracker that specializes in detailed sleep tracking & Heart Rate Variability measurement)
    • Whoop (similar fitness tracker but targeted towards athletes & recovery)
    • Apple Watch

     

    Let me know if there is something that I should add to the list.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – September 12th, 2020

    243251

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • I Can’t Believe It’s Not Steak! (Yes, I Can)

    Last week we talked about emerging technologies … not mentioned were emerging technologies in the meat space. 

    Most of us have seen the meat alternatives grow in popularity with vegan sausages, hamburgers & more. In fact, the meat substitute industry is valued at around $5 Billion, and is expected to grow to 8.1 billion by 2026.

    I've tried an impossible burger, and while it's certainly not as good as a hamburger yet – it's better than I expected. 

    The most recent innovation is 3d-printed meat. Yes, you can print steak. Now, 3D bioprinting is still very early in its lifecycle and is primarily being used for medical purposes. Theoretically, down the line, it could be used to create meat that didn't come from a true living animal. 

    Today, however, an Israeli start-up is printing plant-based steaks that supposedly match the taste and texture of steak better than alternatives. 

    5f50f7be7ed0ee001e25d397via Reuters

    Supposedly, 3D printing allows you to better capture the muscle, blood, and fat that characterizes real meat. 

    These steaks are expected to be available at high-end European restaurants before the end of the year … Would you try one?

    Perhaps the most important question, if you could eat a steak that didn't come from a cow, but you couldn't taste the difference, would you be willing to switch?

    At some point, I think it is likely for practical sustainability issues.

    We live in interesting times!

  • Gartner’s 2020 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies

    Each year, I share an article about Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. It's one of the few reports that I make sure to track every year. It does a good job of explaining what technologies are reaching maturity, but which technologies are being supported by the cultural zeitgeist. 

    Technology has become cultural. It influences almost every aspect of every-day life, and it's also a massive differentiator in today's competitive landscape. 

    Sorting through which technologies are making real waves (and will impact the world) and which technologies are a flash in the pan, can be a monumental task. Gartner's report is a great benchmark to compare reality against. 

    2019's trends lead nicely into 2020's trends. While there have been a lot of innovations, the industry movers have stayed the same – advanced AI and analytics, post-classical computing and communication, and the increasing ubiquity of technology (sensors, augmentation, IoT, etc.). 

    What's a "Hype Cycle"?

    As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

    At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

    Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

    Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

    1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
    2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
    3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
    4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
    5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

    Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

    That being said – it's worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can't predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity. 

    What's exciting this year?

    Before I focus on this year, it's important to remember that last year Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle. This points toward more innovation and more technologies being introduced than in the genesis of this report. Many of the technologies from last year (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are represented within newer modalities. 

    It's also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies. 

    For comparison, here's my article from last year, and here's my article from 2015. Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year's Hype Cycle.

    Zz1lNWZiNWRjMmRlNWIxMWVhYjFjMjBlNjhjZDJlOWEzMw==

    via Gartner

    This year's ~30 key technologies were selected from over 2000 technologies and bucketed into 5 major trends:

    • Composite Architectures represent the organizational shift to agile and responsive architectures due to decentralization and increased volatility. Emphasis is on modularity, continuous improvement, and adaptive innovation to respond to changing market conditions (like in trading, or in businesses rapidly shifting to remote). Sample technologies include embedded AI and private 5G
    • Algorithmic Trust is a direct result of increasing data exposure, fake news, and biased algorithms. As a result, technologies have been built to "ensure" identities, privacy, and security. A great example is more technologies being created on the blockchain. Other examples include explainable AI and authenticated provenance
    • Beyond Silicon is in its infancy, but represents the limitations of Moore's law and the physical of silicon. This has led to new advanced materials with enhanced capabilities being used, and other simple materials being used. Examples of this technology can be seen in  DNA computing and storage, quantum computing, and biodegradable sensors. 
    • Formative AI is the shift towards more responsive AI; models that adapt over time and models that can create novel solutions to solve specific problems. Sample technologies include generative AI, self-supervising learning, and composite AI. 
    • Digital me represents the integration of technology with people, both in reality and virtual reality. Past hype cycles have introduced implants and wearables, but the potential applications of the technology are growing, especially in response to social distancing.  Examples are health passports, Two-way BMI, and social distancing technologies. 

    I'm always most interested in the intersection of AI and advanced analytics. This year, it looks like many of the fledgling AI technologies have become integrated and more advanced. Much like the formative years for children, formative AI represents a new era in AI maturity. Models are becoming more generalized, and able to attack more problems. They're becoming integrated with human behavior (and even with humans as seen in digital me). 

    As we reach new echelons of AI, it's actually more likely that you'll see over-hype and short-term failures. As you reach for new heights, you often miss a rung on the ladder… but it doesn't mean you stop climbing. More importantly, it doesn't mean failure or even a lack of progress.  Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, stronger, more resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you wanted (or something better).  It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.

    To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch … Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. 

    Many of these technologies have been hyped for years – but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate a year and underestimate 10. 

    Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

  • Turning Thoughts Into Things

    Well done is better than well said – Benjamin Franklin

    Turning thoughts into things is an important skill set to understand.

    Visionaries tend to spend a lot of their time exploring the future. In and of itself, this is neither good nor bad.

    If you generate a lot of ideas (but don't properly cultivate and structure them) those ideas can easily become a distraction to you and your team. 

    When properly managed and pursued methodically and purposefully – those same ideas become the catalyst for massive progress. 

    There are three main ways, I believe you can make thoughts into things:

    • Focus Your Energy – People often focus more on what they don't want, rather than on what they do want. By directing your energy and focus toward opportunities and possibilities, it becomes a lot more likely that you will recognize and take advantage of opportunities and possibilities when they appear or occur. 
    • Imagine Your Future – One of my favorite quotes is " the best way to predict the future is to create it." Abraham Lincoln originally said it, but I've thought or said it enough it feels like mine to me.  By deeply imagining the future you want to call into existence, and thinking about it with that end in mind, it becomes easier to imagine the intermediary goals or milestones needed to reach your desired goals.  The basic outline brings order to the chaos … and the strategies and tactics needed come from the finer distinctions you make thinking about each part (or what is needed to reach the next milestone).
    • Make It Tangible – Name it!  Naming something is powerful. Whether it's a product in your business, a concept, or a goal. Making it tangible solidifies it in your mind, and in the mind of others.  Think about what happens if you reach it (and what would happen if you fail).  Come up with the criteria that provides evidence of success.  What would it look like?  How would it perform?  What does it make possible? What would it prevent? How would it impact key measures of efficiency, effectiveness, or certainty?  What can you do about it now?

    Ultimately, each of these ideas is entirely dependent on the actions you're willing to take. And how decisive you can be. 

    M6zyTYfcKJFsqfF6greXuJz06z1BfnK6ezqB0USWAwU

    What aren't you doing because you're overthinking it? Are there opportunities you are missing simply because you aren't looking for them?

    Onwards!