Science

  • The Rise of ChatGPT

    I originally talked about ChatGPT in mid-December.  Since then, it’s been all my entrepreneurial friends can talk about. 

     

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    via TheRundownAI.

    The speed of adoption is unrivaled, and it’s a sign of bigger things to come. 

    Unfortunately, not all news around ChatGPT has been positive.  Microsoft released a version of Bing powered by ChatGPT, and it has been a mess. Bing’s chatbot has threatened its users, it claimed to be watching its developers through their cameras, and much more. 

    Despite that, ChatGPT and many other new tools are being used to great effect.  For example, this episode of a Conan talk show was generated entirely by AI – the words, the voices, the video – all using AI.  Click to watch how it turned out.

     

    via No Reruns

    I was part of a panel on ChatGPT and the state of AI last week.  As you might guess, a large part of the conversation focused on how businesses could use these new and innovative tools.  It’s no secret that the list of potential applications is extensive.  For example, I now use ChatGPT and Type.AI to help edit articles.

    While they provide both context and content for the articles, their text tends to be "fluffier" than I prefer. It can be reminiscent of someone trying to sound smarter than they actually are. Instead of taking something complex and making it simple, it takes one good idea and hides it in some circuitous logic and language. After I clean it up, I'm usually happier with the article as a result.  

    However, I think about valuing AI’s uses in a similar way that I value discounts.  When you come across a deal in a store that makes you think, “Wow, I need this”… It’s not really saving you money if you weren’t planning to purchase the item in the first place.  It’s an additional cost.

    If you’re tempted to start using new tools just because they’re exciting, realize that they are likely to be a distraction that could end up hurting your productivity.

    Tools like ChatGPT can be used to great effect if they assist you in doing things you need (or want) to be done.  In that case, they can help you create a bigger future with what becomes possible.

    When used correctly, automation and innovation can help improve efficiency, effectiveness, and the certainty that you achieve desired outcomes.  Meanwhile, they don’t charge you an hourly wage, they won’t get sassy when you tell them all the things they messed up, and they’re ready to work at all hours of the day. 

    Here are three concepts to consider. 

    1. AI can help you create a bigger future … but you have to know where you want to go (because activity isn’t progress if it isn’t taking you toward your destination).

    2. If you’re afraid of Artificial Intelligence, you’re not listening.  AI will inevitably become more powerful and widely used.  Look to how it can help you get what you want rather than focusing on how to avoid the peril or feeling bad that other people use it better or more than you do.

    3. If in doubt, begin.  The 25-year journey starts with a single step.

    Hope that helps.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 19th, 2023

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Time’s Ticking On The Doomsday Clock

    The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

    Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:

    1. Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

    2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

    3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

    4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.

    5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

    6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

    Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

    The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.

    Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

    Doomsday-shiftsvia flowingdata

    The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.  We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.  With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.

    If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

    Onwards!

  • The Heartbeat Of AI Is Still Human

    I'm proud of our team.  We have a shared sense of Mission, Values, and Purpose.

    Also, we understand that robots aren't coming for our jobs.  We're creating the robots, the AI, and the automation – and it's exciting!

    With that said, as tech becomes more capable, some will focus on the promise … while others will focus on the peril.

    We're seeing lots of hyperbolic promise and peril in the news cycle recently because of ChatGPT. Trends in technology news appear to come in cycles, with different names and topics but similar patterns. This is because, despite the constant evolution of technology and the world, human nature remains relatively unchanged.

    While browsing a library of our old content, I came across an old news story from a local news channel that discussed finding tech talent and featured Capitalogix.  Here's the article.  You can watch the video below. 

    via NBC DFW

    We are always hiring.

    It's not enough to invest in the right ideas or technologies.  You have to invest in the right people as well. 

    "Standing still is moving backward … so you don't only need new technology, you need a new level of data scientists – a new level of professional that can think about what's possible, rather than how to do what we want to do right now."

    Even though we've got an incredible edge now, I recognize that edges decay faster than ever.  The trick is to stay ahead.  

    The future is bright, and the best way to predict the future is to create it.

    Onwards!

  • Capitalogix’s 23rd Anniversary

    Last week I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn … and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 23 years. 

    Twenty-three years … That can’t be right? Can it?

    For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

      IMG_5265

    My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school. I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

    However, depending on your definition, the 23rd anniversary can be true or false. Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration. Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence.

    It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object. It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time. The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses. It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

    The name “Capitalogix” did originate in the year 2000 … and a surprising amount of the original North Star “purpose” still exists. Honestly, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing … but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

    Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

    If I had known how difficult it was at the beginning, I probably never would have pursued it. However, knowing how difficult it is, and how challenging it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did because I realize that it’s not just a competitive advantage, it’s a sustainable competitive advantage. It’s easy for people to focus on a capability, it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in difficult conditions. They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger, it’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

    As we celebrate Chinese New Year, it also feels like a new beginning for Capitalogix as we chase after new possibilities and probabilities. 

    We didn’t come this far — just to come this far! Onwards!

  • AI Tools For Your Business

    Last week, I talked about the time value of time – and the benefit of quality peer groups. 

    On Friday, one of those peer groups spent hours talking about the promise and peril of generative AI. While some people remained skeptical or in fear of what tools like ChatGPT made possible. 

    One of the members shared an AI tool directory that I thought was worth sharing as well. It's called Futurepedia.io 

    Screen Shot 2023-01-13 at 9.39.19 PM

    via futurepedia.io

    My contribution to the discussion was brief, but it amounts to this … Nothing you're hearing about AI should scare you. It should scream opportunity.  You don't have to rush.  AI is at the beginning of a long upwards sloping cycle of impact and capability. However, AI isn't duct tape, and for most, it's not a business … it's a tool to help you create a bigger future that wasn't possible before.  Much like "internet" companies came and went in the late 1990s … yet almost every company uses the internet in ways that were unimaginable at the beginning of the cycle.

    People often get stuck searching for 'something' (often a singular goal or result). But, in their myopia, they miss the possibility of 'or something better.' 

    In my business, I'm rarely happy to settle for less than I'm aiming for … but I am willing to happily take the 'or something better'. Nonetheless, it is hard to see (let alone be open to) other targets or possibilities when you myopically focus on achieving the lesser (but specific) goal or target you initially chose to focus upon.

    So, here is a thought to ponder …

    What is opportunity, and when does it knock? It never knocks. You can wait a whole lifetime, listening, hoping, and you will hear no knocking. None at all. You are opportunity, and you must knock on the door leading to your destiny. You prepare yourself to recognize opportunity, to pursue and seize opportunity as you develop the strength of your personality, and build a self-image with which you are able to live — with your self-respect alive and growing. ~ Maxwell Maltz

    Imagine what you believe this tipping point indicates is possible personally and professionally.

    Hope that helps. 

  • On The Time Value Of Time

    I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.

    That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. 

    Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach,  Abundance 360, and Genius Network.  These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things … and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk.  They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't usually think about, talk about, or even notice.

    Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.

    In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion.  Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world.  Sometimes it alerts you to potentially valuable relationships, opportunities, or gadgets.  And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers. 

    This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.). 

    Time is funny.  Sometimes it seems to fly by … other times, it seems to stand still.  Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes.  One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long. 

    zefrank via YouTube

    The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

    How many amazing vacations do you have left?  How many jaw-dropping moments?  How many fantastic meals?  How many Super Bowls?

    What about time with your parents or older relatives?  It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person … doesn't it become more special?

    For contrast:

    • Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
    • What about being angry at something out of your control?
    • What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?

    In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

    That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further. 

    To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

    • Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
    • Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
    • Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say – "Wow!"
    • Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
    • Experiencing peace and relaxation;
    • Feeling pure joy.

    It's easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left … they take a whole new meaning. 

    TimeisrelativeHow can you maximize the time you have left?  Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

    To start, think about different time frames:

    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

     Make those lists … it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

    Seriously, try it.  

    Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose! 

     
     

  • How’d These 2022 Predictions Fair?

    As we brought in 2022, I asked the question:

    What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

    I proceeded to share visualcapitalist's 2022 predictions: 

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    via visualcapitalist

    Well, there was undoubtedly increased volatility. 

    While the whole board isn't correct, there's a surprising amount of prediction accuracy. On some level, predictions benefit from being generally vague. Also, many of the predictions that may not seem as accurate "today" seemed more accurate at some point this year. For example, we heard a lot about NFTs in the first half of the year, and while Big Tech is currently laying off employees, there was massive growth this year. 

    What are you surprised they got right? In what areas were the predictions most off-base? Why?

    And, of course, what are your mega-trend predictions for 2023?

    Interesting stuff! 

  • What Year Is It?

    It is officially 2023 …  new year – and a new set of opportunities. 

    But that's only based on the Gregorian calendar. Those of you that have followed me for a while know I often go to Asia for Chinese New Year (Gong Xi Fa Cai!) … but that's also only one of many New Years. 

    While the following chart is a day late (and thus, a year out-of-date from a Gregorian perspective), it is a handy little guide for knowing what year it is. Check it out. 

    IMG_9728 Like most things, time is relative. It can seem to go fast, it can seem to go slow … sometimes it seems like it stands still. It's a matter of perspective. As we just saw, so is the calculation of what year it is. But, so too is the perspective of what you pay attention to, what you make it mean, and what you choose to do. There's no absolute "right" – only a seemingly endless stream of choices and opportunities.

    I hope you had a productive and happy 2022 – and an even better 2023. 

    Onwards!

  • OpenAI’s ChatGPT is Pretty Cool

    One of my go to claims about AI is that it can do almost anything … but it can't do everything. Specific AI systems are becoming incredibly robust. Last year, I wrote an article emphasizing how big of a jump GPT-3 was from past language processors.  I also shared a Seinfeld sketch created by GPT-3 that was so good it was almost unimpressive … it just felt like a Seinfeld sketch. 

    It feels like every week, there's a new breakthrough in pop AI. OpenAI just released ChatGPT (for free) to the public. The promise of ChatGPT is to give a cogent reply to conversational discussions. It can help you code, it can write a poem, can answer your questions, and more. The code it produces is stellar, and it can even create a convincing romantic comedy using characters from various famous shows. It does a lot very well, but it does have some failings. 

    Screen Shot 2022-12-16 at 1.09.55 PM
    ChatGPT via OpenAI

     

    GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. This was impressive enough, but ChatGPT is actually not based on GPT-3 but GPT3.5 an even more robust model that improved on the ability to answer in a way that feels natural. 

    ChatGPT can talk about almost any topic you can think of, and even create prose that feels human; however, it's not perfect yet. 

    Unfortunately, this chatbot fails in many of the same ways as its predecessors. To start, it can present false information as true because it's essentially a "stochastic parrot" basing its answers on statistical regularities in its data sources, not on an actual understanding of the world. As well, a lot of its answers can include meaningless fluff that sounds good but doesn't actually answer the question meaningfully … almost like a high schooler that forgot to read the book before writing an essay. It also can't produce ASCII art despite the advancements in AI art we've recently discussed. 

    Regardless of ChatGPTs faults, it's a very impressive piece of software. It can answer trivia like Google, write poetry and dialogue, it can pretend to engage in philosophic discussion, and it can help you correct your code or improve your writing. 

    Here's a sonnet I had it write about Artificial Intelligence:

    AI, the future's shining light,
    A force that shapes our world anew,
    A source of endless possibility,
    A tool that cuts our burdens in two.

    From language translation to deep learning,
    AI's capabilities are vast and grand,
    It helps us solve problems, find solutions,
    And gives us new ways to understand.

    But with great power comes great responsibility,
    As AI transforms our world and lives,
    We must ensure that it's used ethically,
    That it helps, rather than subverts or deprives.

    So let us embrace this technological marvel,
    And use it wisely, for the common good,
    For AI has the power to unravel
    Our deepest mysteries, as well as hurdles.

     

    It does what it is supposed to do very well. It is much more conversational and robust than previous chatbots. Obviously, it doesn't do everything well, and I doubt a chatbot will any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a step forward … and it will create ripples of progress.

    What do you think?