Religion

  • Do You Think the U.S. Has Aliens?

    I'll admit to being fascinated by the idea of aliens.  Growing up in the 60s and 70s, there was no shortage of science fiction fantasies imagining what a space-faring civilization would look like and, more importantly, what would we, the Earthlings, do when they made contact. 

    Last year, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on Unidentified Flying Objects.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena they couldn't explain with their current information.

    Now, we have multiple former military officials testifying in a House of Representatives meeting that the U.S. has recovered not only spacecraft but alien biological matter for decades.  While I do believe in the possibility of aliens, I remain skeptical.

    There are many stories (or theories) about how we had encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation had contacted us – and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

    In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

    For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

    Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than ours.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies – interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) … it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

    If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

     

    via TED

    In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

    1. Habitability and stability of their planet
    2. Building blocks of life 
    3. Technological advancement
    4. Socialness/Communication technologies

    But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

    Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life – and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks – or that there might have been others in the past, or others may develop in the distant future. 

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    What do you think?

    Here's another article I wrote on the subject, titled "Are We Alone In The Universe?"

    Finally, here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

    To Infinity and Beyond!

  • Life After Death … Will A.I. Help you Live Forever?

    My Aunt recently passed away. She was my Dad's sister … and she was a fantastic person. She was loving and kind. She was a natural-born caregiver, And she was as sharp as a tack. What wouldn't we give for another moment with her? My response to her death reminded me of my feelings when my Dad passed away. 

    This time, the conversation was a little different. People asked me if I thought that A.I. would enable us to live on after our bodies started to give out on us. I recorded some of my thoughts. 

     

    I don't think A.I. will give us life after death.

    I do believe technology will get good enough to create a replica of you – that talks like you, responds like you, and even comforts people who miss you. 

    I don't believe technology can capture whatever part of us doesn't live in our bodies. Whether you call it our soul (or something else), I don't think that will ever get uploaded to the matrix, so you live on. 

    And, I think that's okay. Part of the beauty of existence is the transience, the joy, the suffering, and the range of human experience. That is a big part of what we call life.

    When my Dad was dying, every moment took on new meaning. Not only did time seem to slow down, but there was a weight and intimacy that's often taken for granted. 

    What do you think?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 4th, 2023

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Predicting The Future With Arthur C Clarke

    Last week, I shared a couple of videos that attempted to predict the future. As a result, someone sent me a video of Arthur C Clarke's predictions that I thought was worth sharing.

    Arthur C Clarke was a fantastic science fiction writer and a famous futurist. You probably know him as the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey.

    Here are his predictions from 1964, nearly 60 years ago.

     

    via BBC Archive 

    Arthur C. Clarke had a profound impact on the way we imagine the future. Known for his remarkable predictions, Clarke's ideas may have seemed farfetched at times, yet his thoughts on the future and the art of making predictions were grounded in reason.

    If a prophet from the 1960s were to describe today's technological advancements in exaggerated terms, their predictions would sound equally ridiculous. The only certainty about the future is that it will be fantastical beyond belief, a sentiment Clarke understood well.

    You can be a great futurist even if many of your predictions are off in execution, but correct in direction. For example, Clarke predicted that the advancements in communication would potentially make cities nonexistent. While cities still exist – in much the same way as in the 1960s – people can now work, live, and make a massive difference in their companies from anywhere on the planet, even from a van traveling around the country. Global communication is so easy that it's taken for granted. 

    As a science fiction author, some of what he wrote about might seem ridiculous today. For example, super-monkey servants creating trade unions.  Much of what he wrote about was what could happen (and to provide a way for people to think about the consequences of their actions and inactions).  As we discussed last week, humans often recognize big changes on the horizon … but they rarely correctly anticipate the consequences. 

    In summary, even though some of Clarke's predictions were farfetched, they were rooted in a deep understanding of human potential and the transformative power of technology. His ability to envision a fantastical future was not only a testament to his imagination, but also served as an inspiration for generations of scientists, engineers, and dreamers. By embracing the unknown and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of the future, we can continue to push the boundaries of what is possible and strive for a world that is truly beyond belief.

    You won't always be 100% correct, but you'll be much closer than if you reject what's coming. 

  • What’s In The Box? The Consequences of Labeling

    “Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
    They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
    when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
    The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
    ― Karen Marie Moning

    The current socio-political climate has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

    Whats-in-the-box

    via Se7en

    With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

    Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms … because there's no money in the middle.

     

    200705 Einstein's Simplicity Quote

    via Quote Investigator

    The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.

    Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms of most of these sites create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease news comprehension.  Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating … because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone they don't share the same values as. 

     

    Neitzche

    via BrainyQuotes.

    In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

    That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't preclude deeper thought on important issues. 

    In an ideal world, we would all have the bandwidth to view each case of an issue as a whole issue within itself.  Most things are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

    I recognize that's not realistic.

    Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn … even about things you already know.  Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

    200705 50 Cognitive Biases Small
    via VisualCapitalist

    Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

    I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

    Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view … not your own. 

    Applying This Lesson  

    “I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
    ―     Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

    I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

    In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong – naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

    Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

    We are our choices … and you can make choices today that change who you are (and what you or your business is capable of) tomorrow. 

    Hope that helps – Onwards!

  • Time’s Ticking On The Doomsday Clock

    The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

    Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:

    1. Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

    2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

    3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

    4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.

    5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

    6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

    Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

    The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.

    Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

    Doomsday-shiftsvia flowingdata

    The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.  We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.  With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.

    If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

    Onwards!

  • Happy Chinese New Year!

    Chinese New Year happened this weekend.

    So, Gong Xi Fa Cai … which translates to "Best wishes for a prosperous New Year!"

    Often, Jennifer and I go to Indonesia to celebrate with Jen's family, but this time we stayed home and celebrated here. 

    29164via Statista

    On New Year's it is a lot easier to celebrate when you have a party to go to … The trick is finding the celebration in the first place.

    It's interesting to think about how many New Year celebrations there are.  In addition to Chinese New Year, Muslims have Hari Raya Idul Fitri; Jews have Rosh Hashanah; of course, there is January 1st (and many others).

    Which is correct?  I think the answer is all of them.  Regardless of your chosen New Year, it provides an opportunity to celebrate, share, reflect, plan, and commit to the right actions.  If you've already fallen off the wagon of your new year's resolutions, this can be your reason to get back on them. 

    As I think about it, the same principle applies to trading.  It's all a matter of perspective.

    At some level, there really isn't a correct answer as to which trading style is best.  The best technique is the one that works.  Trading styles go in and out of phase, and if you get too attached to a particular technique, you can too easily get detached from profit.  As any experienced trader can tell you, edges decay, people catch on, and trends change.

    As businesses increasingly adopt Artificial Intelligence, the way forward is becoming evident.  This involves utilizing AI to selectively activate and deactivate specific capabilities based on their effectiveness.

    In trading or business, while no single method is guaranteed to succeed, there is always a method that can be effective.  You just have to be flexible enough to know what you want and still be willing to accept something better.

  • What Year Is It?

    It is officially 2023 …  new year – and a new set of opportunities. 

    But that's only based on the Gregorian calendar. Those of you that have followed me for a while know I often go to Asia for Chinese New Year (Gong Xi Fa Cai!) … but that's also only one of many New Years. 

    While the following chart is a day late (and thus, a year out-of-date from a Gregorian perspective), it is a handy little guide for knowing what year it is. Check it out. 

    IMG_9728 Like most things, time is relative. It can seem to go fast, it can seem to go slow … sometimes it seems like it stands still. It's a matter of perspective. As we just saw, so is the calculation of what year it is. But, so too is the perspective of what you pay attention to, what you make it mean, and what you choose to do. There's no absolute "right" – only a seemingly endless stream of choices and opportunities.

    I hope you had a productive and happy 2022 – and an even better 2023. 

    Onwards!

  • The Twelve Days of Christmas …

    Most people know the song about the 12 Days of Christmas, but here's an interesting visualization of what presents were gifted by "their true love." 

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    via Neil R Kaye

     

    I don't know about you … but that's a ton of birds. Probably too many. Forty gold rings doesn't sound too bad (and less likely to become worthless than the NFTs they thought about substituting here). 

    All together pretty noisy. 

    Hopefully, you bought presents that your partner would actually enjoy. 

  • Merry Chrismakkuh

    Today is Christmas … and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

    For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

    That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

    To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

    Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out – here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

    The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

    Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

    MicrosoftTeams-image (3)

    I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.