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  • Understanding the Shapes of Stories

    Seemingly complex things are often simpler when understood.

    This applies to many things.

    For example, great writing is diverse and nuanced … but its underlying structure often isn't.

    Kurt Vonnegut wrote several "Classics", including Cat's Cradle, Slaughterhouse-Five, and The Sirens of Titan.

    Despite his great writing and its complexities, he was able to simplify his stories into a few basic narrative shapes.

    Here is a graphic that explains the concept.

    201227 Kurt-Vonnegut-The-Shapes-of-Stories

    Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories. You can grasp the basic concepts within the first 7 minutes, but he is witty, and the whole video is worth watching. 

     

    You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" idea in Vonnegut's rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.

    Researchers recently extended Vonnegut's idea by using AI to extract the emotional trajectories of 1,327 stories and discover six core emotional arcs. In case you are curious, here they are.

    • Rags to riches (a rise)
    • Tragedy (a fall)
    • Man in a hole (fall, then a rise)
    • Icarus (rise, then a fall)
    • Cinderella (rise, then a fall, then a rise)
    • Oedipus (fall, then a rise, then a fall)

     For more on writing from Kurt Vonnegut:

    My friend, John Raymonds, also has a substack. He just released a great article on the power of storytelling. It dives deep into the nature of stories and narrative transportation. Check it out. 

    Have a nice week.

  • How Long You Have Left

    We only have a limited time on this earth … and a lot of it is spent on frivolous activities. 

    How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones … or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

    The answer is a lot.

    Although this chart hasn't been updated recently, it still provides a helpful glimpse of the bigger picture. 

     

    How-much-time-we-have-infographic (1)via Anna Vital

    Nine years in front of entertainment devices – another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.

    If you have goals you want to accomplish, places you want to go, and lifestyle aspirations to experience, this puts the idea of finding and living your passion into perspective. 

    Do you have the time to waste it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

     

    OC_Life-Expectancy-by-Age_1600px_Oct31

    via visualcapitalist
     

    According to this calculator, since I'm over 60, I only have about 20 years left.   I expect more!

    There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 … but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

    While these numbers appear high, there are two key considerations. First, COVID-19 heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates increased. 

    Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which may differ from your own (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

    Ultimately, I believe Purpose is one of the most significant catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire … not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

    If you're not growing, you're dying!

  • The Rise of AI Art and Its Implications

    The last time I talked about AI Art specifically was in 2022 when Dall-E was just gaining steam. Before that, it was 2019, when AI self-portraits were going viral. 

    On both occasions, it still felt like the relative infancy of the technology. I compared it to VR getting another 15 minutes of fame. 

    The images at the time weren’t fantastic, but it was a massive step in AI’s ability to understand and translate text into a coherent graphic response. The algorithms still didn’t really “understand” the meaning of images the way we do, and they were guessing based on what they had seen before – which was much less than today’s algorithms have seen. They were also much worse at interpreting images. As such, when you tried to use AI to recreate an image, there were a lot of hallucinations. The algorithms were essentially a brute-force application of math masquerading as intelligence. 

    An Elegant Use Of Brute Force_GapingVoid

     

    Fortunately, AI imagery has come a long way since then. However, with that improvement comes more ethical concerns. 

    The rise of AI-generated art has sparked a complex and ongoing ethical debate, with compelling arguments on both sides. At the heart of the discussion lies the question of authorship, originality, and the impact of automation on human creativity and labor.

    Proponents of AI art argue that it represents a powerful extension of human imagination. Just as past innovations—such as photography, digital editing, or sampling in music—were initially met with skepticism, Advocates argue AI-generated art is simply the next evolution in the artistic toolkit, and it democratizes access to artmaking. As a result, those with less skill – or time – can explore new styles, generate concepts, and be creative in a new form. To this end, they see AI not as a threat but as a collaborator—another brush or chisel in an artist’s hand.

    However, critics raise concerns about the ethical implications of AI art, particularly in how these models are trained. Many AI systems are built on vast datasets scraped from the internet, including artwork by human creators who were neither consulted nor compensated, leading to accusations of IP theft. Moreover, they argue it sets a dangerous precedent where creative works can be replicated and commodified without consent or attribution. Lastly, on the idea of democratization, they would argue that art is already accessible to all and that people should be willing to explore skills not only to be good at them but to enjoy them. 

     

    White Black Before After Professional Upcycling YouTube Thumbnail

     

    The most recent trend has been a great example of this argument. The launch of OpenAI’s new image generator, powered by GPT-4, has empowered users to transform their photos into various famous media themes – like Renaissance paintings or  Studio Ghibli anime images – which ironically goes against the ethos of Studio Ghibli and Hayao Miyazaki. The studio is known for its commitment to the craft, with carefully animated and hand-drawn scenes. Their films are known for glorifying nature and living in harmony with it. Miyazaki also believes that AI art is disrespectful to the “life” found in human-created art. 

     

    “I feel like we are nearing the end times. We humans are losing faith in ourselves.” – Hayao Miyazaki 

     

    I’m a massive fan of AI – and even AI art … but as the technology continues to evolve, society must grapple with how to integrate these tools in ways that honor both progress and the rights of the artists (and people) whose work—and livelihoods—may be at stake.

    What do you think?

  • AI: We’re Not Just Prompts!

    AI’s trajectory isn’t just upward—it’s curving ever steeper. From DeepMind’s groundbreaking models to Flow’s democratization of filmmaking, people are becoming used to how quickly AI technology improves.
     
    Breakneck doesn’t even seem adequate to explain the scale of the movements. Because it isn’t just about the rate of change – even the rate of change of the rate of change is accelerating … and the result is exponential progress.
     
    Here is a simple example. Remember when you mocked AI-generated videos on social media for obvious flaws (e.g., six fingers, unnatural blinking or movement, etc.). Over the past few months, AI media quality has improved so much that spotting fakes is now difficult, even for tech-savvy people.
     
    Well, we just took another giant leap.
     
    This week, Google’s DeepMind unit released three new core AI models: Imagen for image generation,  Lyria for music generation, and Veo 3 for video generation.

    It only takes a quick look at Veo 3 to realize it represents a significant breakthrough in delivering astonishingly realistic videos.

    I’m only including two examples here … but I went down the rabbit hole and came away very impressed.

    Take a look – Everything in the clip below may be fake, but the AI is real.

     

    via Jerrod Lew

    The era of effortless, hyper-real content has arrived.
     
    One of the big takeaways from tools like this is that you no longer need content creation talent other than your ideas.
     
    An example of this comes from Google’s new AI filmmaking tool, Flow. 

    What Is Flow?

    What if creating professional-grade videos required no cameras, no crew, and no weeks of editing?
     
    Flow can imagine and create videos just from your ideas. Kind of like telling a friend a story and having them draw or act it out instantly.

    How Does It Work?

    Think of Flow as a giant box of movie Legos. You can bring your own pieces (like pictures or clips) or ask Flow to make new pieces for you. Then, you snap them together to build scenes and clips that look like real movies.

    Why Is This Cool?

    It is becoming easier for almost anyone to create the type of content that only a specialist could produce before. The tool makes it easy in these three ways.

    1. Consistent: The videos stick together well, so your story doesn’t jump around confusingly.
    2. Seamless: It’s easy to add or change things without breaking the flow.
    3. Cinematic: The videos look high-quality — like something you’d see on TV or in theaters.

    If you want to play with it, it’s available to Google Ultra subscribers through the Gemini app and Google Labs. 

    Ok, but what can it do?

    Redefining “Real”

    Don’t skip this next part. It’s what gave me the idea for the post.
    To set the stage, imagine you’re watching a video of a person talking. Typically, you think, “This is real — someone actually stood in front of a camera and spoke.” But now computers can make a video that looks and sounds so real, you can’t tell it’s fake.
     
    Anyway, this week, I saw a cool video on social media. At first, I thought it was cool simply because of the idea it expressed. But the video gets even more interesting when you realize how it was created.
     
    “Prompt Theory” is a mind-bending exploration of artificial intelligence brought to life. The premise examines what happens when AI-generated characters refuse to believe they’re not real. From stunning visuals to synced audio, this video showcases AI’s new immersive storytelling power while examining some pretty trippy concepts.
     

    Hashem Al-Ghaili via X

    I predict you will see a massive influx of AI-generated content flooding social media using tools like this. 

    Meanwhile, digital “people” with likenesses and internal objectives are increasingly going to become persistent and gain the ability to influence our world. This is inevitable. Yet, it’s still a little disorienting to think about.
     
    As digital agents gain persistence and purpose, we face profound questions about reality, ethics, and human creativity.
     
    And that is only the beginning!
     
    Perhaps we are living in a simulation?

  • Global Happiness Levels in 2025

    Are you Happy?

    What does that mean? How do you define it? And how do you measure it?

    Happiness is a surprisingly complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones. And upon a bit of reflection, happiness is bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

    Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) … humans strive for happiness.

    Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

    Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses). Below is an infographic highlighting the World Happiness Report data for 2025.

    Screenshot 2025-05-11 at 9.59.45 PM

    World Happiness Report via Gallup

    Click here to see a dashboard with the raw worldwide data.

    I last shared this concept in 2022. At the time, we were still seeing the ramifications of COVID-19 on happiness levels. As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

    Ultimately, happiness scores are relatively resilient and stable, and humanity persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and more.

    While scores in North America have dropped slightly, there are positive trends. 

    The 2025 Report

    In the 2025 report, one of the key focuses was an increase in pessimism about the benevolence of others. There seems to be a rise in distrust that doesn't match the actual statistics on acts of goodwill. For example, when researchers dropped wallets in the street, the proportion of returned wallets was far higher than people expected. 

    Unfortunately, our well-being depends on our perception of others' benevolence, as well as their actual benevolence. 

    Since we underestimate the kindness of others, our well-being can be improved by seeing acts of true benevolence. In fact, the people who benefit most from perceived benevolence are those who are the least happy. 

    "Benevolence" increased during COVID-19 in every region of the world. People needed more help, and others responded. Even better, that bump in benevolence has been sustained, with benevolent acts still being about 10% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. 

    Another thing that makes a big difference in happiness levels worldwide is a sense of community. People who eat with others are happier, and this effect holds across many other variables. People who live with others are also happier (even when it's family). 

    The opposite of happiness is despair, and deaths of despair (suicide and substance abuse) are falling in the majority of countries. Deaths of despair are significantly lower in countries where more people are donating, volunteering, or helping strangers. 

    Yet, Americans are increasingly eating alone and living alone, and are one of the few countries experiencing an increase in deaths of despair (especially among the younger population). In 2023, 19% of young adults across the world reported having no one they could count on for social support. This is a 39% increase compared to 2006. 

    Takeaways

    In the U.S., and a few other regions, the decline in happiness and social trust points to the rise in political polarisation and distrust of "the system". As life satisfaction lowers, there is a rise in anti-system votes.

    Among unhappy people attracted by the extremes of the political spectrum, low-trust people are more often found on the far right, whereas high-trust people are more inclined to vote for the far left.

    Despite that, when we feel like we're part of a community, spend time with others, and perform prosocial behavior, we significantly increase perceived personal benefit and reported happiness levels.

    Do you think we can return to previous levels of trust in the States? I remember when it felt like both parties understood that the other side was looking to improve the country, just with different methods. 

    On a broader note, while we have negative trends in the U.S., the decrease is lower than you might expect. The relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

    Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

    Remember, throughout history, things have gotten better. There are dips here and there, but like the S&P 500 … we always rally eventually. 

    Onwards!

  • Why Don’t We See Aliens?

    So, if the math says it's likely that there are aliens … why don't we see them?

    In 2020, I mentioned Israeli officials who claimed they had been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation – and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together.

    There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. Here are some links to things you might find interesting if you want to learn more about this.

    So, while some may still believe aliens don't exist – I think it's a more helpful thought experiment to wonder why we haven't seen them. 

    For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

    To simplify the issue, billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies) are similar to our Sun. Consequently, there must be some probability that some of them will have Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies, interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

    Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) … it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

    If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb, a particle physicist, tackles that in his book and this TED Talk.   

    via TED

    In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

    1. Habitability and stability of their planet
    2. Building blocks of life 
    3. Technological advancement
    4. Socialness/Communication technologies

    But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, the moon's effect on climate, etc. 

    Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life, and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. Even if there were others, it's entirely possible that they're extinct by now. 

    E23

    What do you think?

    Here are some other links I liked on this topic. There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

    To Infinity and Beyond!

  • To Rebirth & Spring Cleaning

    Next Sunday is Easter, but yesterday was the first night of Passover – an 8-day long Jewish holiday that recounts the story of Exodus. 

    The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, depicting a Passover Seder and Jesus's last meal before his crucifixion. 

     

    110417-DaVinci_LastSupper

     

    Part of the Passover Seder tradition involves discussing how to share the story in ways that connect with different types of people, recognizing that everyone understands and relates to things differently.

    To do this, we examine the Passover story through the lens of four archetypal children — the Wise Child, the Wicked Child, the Simple Child, and the Child Who Does Not Know How to Ask.

    The four children reflect different learning styles — intellectual (Wise), skeptical (Wicked), curious (Simple), and passive (Silent) — and highlight how we must adapt communication to the diverse personalities and developmental stages of our audience.

    This seems even more relevant today, as we struggle to come to a consensus on what to believe and how to communicate with people who think differently. 

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    On a lighter note, one of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says, "Let my people go!"  For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoah about his people's freedom.  But after a week of eating clogging food like matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh … for many Jews, "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.

    After Passover, and as we enter a new season, it's a great time for a mental and physical 'Spring Cleaning,' and delve into your experiences to cultivate more of what you desire and less of what you don't.

    Here is to Spring, Re-Birth, and Spring Cleaning.

    Hope you had a great weekend.

  • Imaginary Centenarians: An Ig Nobel Pursuit

    The 34th Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place last Thursday at MIT. Every year since 1991, around the time the recipients of the genuine Novel Prizes are announced,  the Ig Nobel Prize awards the ten achievements that "first make people laugh, and then make them think. They're meant to celebrate the imaginative and encourage more interest in the sciences. 

    The first award for Biology was awarded to Robert Klark Graham, for pioneering development of the Repository for Germinal Choice, a sperm bank that accepted donations only from Nobellians and Olympians. While I jokingly tell my kids they have "superior genetic potential," this type of research and belief can have serious consequences. 

    In 1996, Physicist Robert Matthews earned a prize for his paper "Tumbling Toast, Murphy's Law and the Fundamental Constants," which sought to explain why toast tends to fall buttered-side down.

      
    Buttering-your-bread-before-toasting-it-cooks-butter-into-the-bread-1676209460

     

    In 2002, another physicist, Arnd Leike, earned the honor after using the law of exponential decay to explain the behavior of beer foam. 

    And in 2017, Marc-Antoine Fardin earned the honor for using fluid dynamics to finally answer the eternal question: "Can a cat be both a solid and a liquid?" In case you are squeamish, no blender was involved in that experiment.

    While these are funny examples, they're rooted in real science. As is the focus of this article, this year's Ig Nobel Prize for Demography. 

    In my circles, it is becoming more common to discuss how to live past 100 — and not just how to live beyond that number … but to do so with a high quality of life.

    A popular concept around that subject is Blue Zones – areas where people seem to live longer and healthier. There's even a Netflix documentary on the subject. Notable places include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Ikaria, Greece. 

    Saul Justin Newman challenged that belief with his research, which found that extreme age records tend to come from areas with no birth certificates, rampant clerical errors, pension fraud … and even short life spans. 

    While longevity in the zones has primarily been attributed to diet, community, and genetics, Newman found that many of these claims were based on errors – or outright fraud. Instead, these regions are actually characterized by the opposite of what you would expect … low incomes, low literacy, high crime, and short lifespans. 

    To a certain extent, it makes sense. In areas where you're struggling to make ends meet … why wouldn't you commit pension fraud? In fact, in 2010, the Japanese government realized that over 80% of the people aged over 100 were actually dead. Part of what made this possible was that America bombed the halls of records in that area during the war. 

    Here's an interview with Saul Justin Newman on the subject. He's tracked over 80% of the people aged over 110 worldwide. Almost none of them have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate. 

    What does this mean for human longevity?

    While the stories of these 110-year-olds may mostly be fake – as mentioned in my recent article – longevity is on the rise, and there are many modalities to increase your lifespan. 

     

    Longevity-expanding-quest-lifespan-futurist-speaker

     

    The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

    There are people living to 100, and there are plenty of people living healthily into their 70s, 80s, and 90s. 

    We're taking steps in the right direction. Technology and medicine are both evolving quickly. 

    But, like with longevity data, improvements in any space need to be met with a grain of salt. 

    If it sounds too good to be true … it generally is. Not always. But, generally. 

  • 2024 Update: What Happens In An Internet Minute

    The Internet is both timeless and timely in an interesting way.  While what's popular changes seemingly instantly, and what we're capable of doing on it continues to grow exponentially.  Ultimately, the Internet is the digital town square of a global village, where all types and professions gather. 

    In 2011, I first wrote about what happens in 60 seconds on the Internet. 

    I've since updated the article a few times.

    Each time I write the article, I'm in awe at the amount of data we create and how much it has grown.  For example, looking back to 2011, I was amazed that users created 600+ new videos and 60 new blog posts each minute.  Those numbers seem quaint today. 

     

    Screenshot 2024-06-30 at 3.29.32 PMvia DOMO

    Shortly after I started sharing the articles, Data Never Sleeps started standardizing the data, which is helpful. 

    Today, the Internet reaches 5.4 billion people.  Most of them also use social media. 

    Screenshot 2024-06-30 at 3.44.18v2 PM

    To add some more perspective, 

    • In 2008, 1.4 billion people were online; in 2015, we were at 3 billion.  Now, that number has almost doubled again. 
    • In 2008, Facebook only had 80 million users, and Twitter (now X) had 2 million users.
    • In 2008, there were 250 million smartphones, and now there are almost 7 billion of them!

    It is mind-blowing to consider what happens each minute on the Internet today.  For example, the 104,000 hours spent on Zoom represents a significant societal shift … and the over 500 hours of video uploaded to YouTube highlights the incredible amount of content that's being created to share. 

    In 2023, the world created approximately 120 zettabytes of data … which breaks down to approximately 337,000 petabytes of data a day.  Broken down even further, it calculates to more than 15 Terabytes of new data created per person. 

    The calculations about what happens in an Internet minute will change rapidly again because of AI.  Consider the amount of computing power and data it takes to power all of these new GPTs. Now, imagine the amount of new data that AI is creating.  Then, try to imagine the challenge we'll have figuring out what's real, what's made up, and what is simply wrong or intentionally misleading.

    In addition, as more devices and digital WHOs start creating and sharing data, it's hard to fathom the ramifications and sheer increase in data. 

    I'm curious about what the next five years have in store for us as we approach the 40th anniversary of the World Wide Web. 

  • The Evolution of Michael Jackson

    This lighthearted post has something to do with artificial …  but nothing to do with artificial intelligence.

    While doing my weekly reading and web browsing (which is how I pick those links you probably think an algorithm selects), I happened upon a post about Michael Jackson on Twitter (now called X), and I enjoyed it (or at least was drawn to click and watch it). 

    I grew up a huge Michael Jackson fan. As a kid, I watched the Jackson 5 Saturday morning cartoon show. His albums were the soundtrack to my college years. Later, my first wife and I saw him in concert several times. We shared that love with our youngest son, Zach. 

    It's funny to look back on, but Zach used to dance to Michael Jackson's songs on stage at his Elementary School talent shows or at random restaurants. There was no choreography … but lots of movement. I still smile when I think about it. 

    You might smile (or shake your head) while watching this short video chronicling the evolution of  Michael Jackson's face changes from birth to death. 

     

    via MikeBeast

    It's a staggering difference. I won't pretend to know what led him to make the changes, but they're substantial. 

    That being said, his music is both timely and timeless – which is very rare. He managed to make music in each era that fit in with the times but still felt very Michael Jackson. 

     

    via MikeBeast

     

    Gone too soon!