Earlier in the week, a number of U.S. stock indexes briefly slipped below their 50-day averages. Despite the Shut-Down, they have bullishly regained those support lines.
A key example took place in the Dow Industrials. The chart shows the Dow bouncing off initial chart support at its late August intra-day low (14760) and its 200-day average (red line). For technical traders, that is a very important test.
The sharp rally has kept the Dow above those two important support levels.
With the government shut down and the debt ceiling looming, one could argue that the U.S. economy may be on the edge of a crisis.
But the stock market is not reflecting this.
During periods of crisis and high stock market volatility, correlations among stocks increase. In other words, stocks move up and down together.
JP Morgan just published a quarterly market chartbook , which includes a useful chart tracking stock market volatility and correlations among stocks since the Great Depression.
Why? Perhaps Because Markets Tend to Go Up After Government Shutdowns.
We are in the 18th government shutdown in US history.
For some perspective, this chart plots the average S&P 500 performance for the 20 trading days (approximately one calendar month) before and 60 trading days (approximately 3 calendar months) after a government shutdown began.
The chart illustrates a bullish pattern. While the stock market has tended to struggle prior to and during the initial three days following a government shutdown … Following this, the stock market has (on average) trended higher over the ensuing three months.
One explanation for this particular average pattern is that the market abhors uncertainty. So as the shutdown approaches, investors fear for the worst. However, after the shutdown begins and investors notice that the economy continues to function (coupled with the fact that the shutdown may be short-lived) ultimately encourages a stock market rally as investors worst fears are not realized.
It should be noted that this chart is an 'average performance chart' and that following the last 17 shutdowns, the stock market traded up 60 trading days after a shutdown on 10 out of 17 occasions (i.e. 58.8%) with the average shutdown lasting 6.4 calendar days.
With all the talk of federal budgets and debt ceilings, now is a good time to turn our focus to the consumer.
Poverty rates and median income remained unchanged in 2012, despite the recovery. So, how does the average US household spend their paycheck? This chart breaks it down.
Twitter will generate more than 500 million dollars in revenue this year. This represents a doubling of the firm’s estimated 245 million dollars of revenue in 2012. Other analysts estimate even higher sales figures.
Notoriously secret, Twitter has not published any figures. However, this is likely to change in the near future. Why? Twitter announced its IPO by Tweet on Thursday. Twitter filed 'Confidential' IPO S-1 Docs.
This year, 131 companies have filed for IPOs — up 44% from last year.