Many of my friends have children either in high school or college.
Watching various graduation ceremonies – it's clear that this was an abnormal year for graduates. That being said, I've been impressed with the sense of greater community that being isolated from your local community can give.
The coronavirus pandemic has put schools and students in an interesting predicament.
While the short-term ramifications have mainly targeted students, the long-term ramifications will also greatly impact schools.
Lockdown orders have put massive financial stress on schools. Scrambling to get students educated, building online materials, purchasing software, etc. all take massive amounts of money. On top of that, many universities have had to issue refunds for various services that students weren't able to receive.
We often think about how severely the pandemic and quarantine have affected hotels and air travel, but education was hit equally as hard.
I'm interested to see how schools will recover. Some universities are staying online for the fall semester, some are downsizing and cutting programs, some are reducing tuition … but many are afraid of their financial model breaking under the pressure (regardless of the size of their endowment).
With nearly infinite education available online for free (including from universities), this could be a chance for a new educational model… time will tell.
Despite rolling re-openings, the economic effects of this "great lockdown" are still mounting.
More than 36 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last two months – with 3 million coming last week. Over 14.7% of the population is unemployed.
That being said, just like with COVID-19 cases, we're past the peak.
Unfortunately, also like COVID-19 cases, the consequences are protracted, and we're unsure if any of our treatment plans are truly alleviating the problem.
The speed of this shutdown and its impact on employment has been almost unprecedented.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached 24.9%, and there is no modern equivalent. Today, that would leave 41 million Americans out of work. But the short-term effects of this lockdown are significantly worse than anything in recent memory.
Luckily, the current crisis is happening on a much faster scale than any of the previous examples. The aforementioned crises generally took several years to happen with unemployment peaking at the tail-end of the recessions. Perhaps we have already passed the peak in only two months? Same story, different topic … are the financial markets. The hit was deeper and quicker than in previous crises, as long as you think the damage has already been done.
Due to this situation stemming from a global pandemic, which resulted in a forced lockdown … there is an argument to be made for this not being a normal crash. As a result, there's room for optimism (or skepticism).
Frankly, this is an unprecedented situation. Governments have taken massive action. We all know they don't do these types of things during good times. The question is will it be enough, and if so, for how long?
Also, actions have consequences. If governments can really do this, and it works, then why wouldn't they continue?
I suspect because it doesn't really work … or at least, too much of a good thing is bad for you too.
As normal economic activity resumes, I look forward to seeing how much of the damage is temporary. There are clearly industries that were hit hard – air travel, hotels, etc. – but almost all industries expect to see a rebound.
Meanwhile, even though Georgia reopened, their initial jobless claims are still rising. Unemployment tracks the business cycle, so as businesses and spending ramp back up, the response should accelerate. But, it's unclear when that will happen and how protracted the pain will be.
As a reminder, though the lockdown is ending, the economic effects will ripple for a long-time. The length of the ripples depends on our response.
Sticking with the philosophy theme, I encourage you to watch this video below on selective attention.
Daniel Simons' experiments on visual awareness have become famous. The primary conclusion drawn from his research is that we can miss incredibly obvious things, right in front of us, if our attention is focused elsewhere.
While watching the video, count how many passes the team in white makes.
This is worth doing so you experience it yourself.
First, did you get the number of passes correct? Second, did you see the gorilla?
If you have already seen this video or heard of the study, it's much easier, but most people absolutely miss the Gorilla, despite it not being hidden.
Think about how often your focus blinds you to the obvious.
This next video demonstrates "change blindness". In an experiment, 75% of the participants didn't notice that the experimenter was replaced by a different person.
Warning: Objects In Your Attention Span Are Fewer Than You Perceive.
It's well known that we often miss objects in our field of view due to limited attention and change blindness, but, it's true with more than just sight. Moment by moment, the brain selectively processes information it deems most relevant. Experiments, like these, show the limits of our capacity to encode, retain, and compare visual information from one glance to the next.
More importantly, this suggests that our awareness of our visual surroundings is far more sparse than most people intuitively believe. Consequently, our intuition can deceive us far more often than we perceive.
As an entrepreneur, when I focus fully on something, it's as if everything else goes away. That level of focus can be a gift – but it can also be a curse. In Genius Network, we have a form we fill out at the beginning of each meeting. In it is a diagram where you rate your score on 8 factors: physical environment, career, money, health, friends & family, significant other, personal & intellectual growth, and fun & recreation
It's rare that I'm fully succeeding in all 8 … we only have so much focus and bandwidth, it's inevitable I'll miss things. Clearly, in an information-rich environment, attention is a scarce and essential resource. So, pay attention (or automate the things you know need to be done right, every time).
What are you currently prioritizing, and what's falling to the side due to that focus? What are you missing?
Hope this was a helpful reminder. Let me know what you think about posts like this. Thanks.
It's apparent that the first 4 months of the year have been anything but normal … Challenging to say the least.
The increased volatility and noise tested active managers' mettle intensely and often. While even a blind squirrel finds a nut in a forest (for example, during a bull market …) this type of environment provides an increased opportunity for both under and outperformance as luck and skill collide.
History will show that the majority of funds struggled in the first quarter of 2020 – driven by the volatility and uncertainty in the midst of a global pandemic.
Investors pulled out ~$33 billion when asset values initially plunged. Yet, the rush to cash was only the beginning, in the first quarter, asset value plunged $366 billion. Redemptions hit large hedge funds the hardest. Meanwhile, funds with less than $1 billion under management only lost $1.6 billion to net redemptions.
That being said, as is often the case in both volatile and bear markets – people are checking out the state-of-the-art active management strategies. Interest in hedge funds is at a three-year high, as many people fear that what used to work simply isn't good enough anymore.
I suspect that technology-enhanced strategies will gain ground during the next few years as A.I. and exponential technologies get better and gain traction in asset management, risk control, and data management. Algorithms will improve, hardware will get faster, digital signal processing will become more accurate, and it will be easier to identify and produce data sources that increase the efficiency, effectiveness, or certainty of outcomes. The likely result will be a reduction in the cost to produce a unit of alpha, which bodes well for forward-looking investors.
As we slowly move toward normalcy, what can we expect to see?
Institutional Investors are optimistic as well. Here are selected responses from a survey of 125 institutions.
94% of respondents said that their institutions had done a good job managing response to COVID-19, with 44% believing they'd done very well. This contrasts with their belief on how the government handled the crisis, but shows an opportunity for a strong rebound for businesses.
In past weeks, I've focused on this crisis as an opportunity for reflection and growth. Personally, I continue to brainstorm ways to combine the old way and the new way to create something better. Institutional Investors express similar sentiment here.
As of 4/21/2020, 66% of respondents believe the focus should be on the health of the public, that will likely soon shift to stabilizing the economy, and subsequently shift to growing the economy.
I believe we'll see similar responses from active managers and from entrepreneurs. This is an opportunity to improve operations, adopt better practices, and set higher standards.
It doesn't make sense to shoot for going back to where we were. This much pain and effort likely creates the fertile ground for something better.
He went on a Twitter tirade focused on the unfairness of COVID-19 lockdowns, on selling all of his personal possessions, and singing the Star-Spangled Banner.
The tweet that took the cake was "Tesla stock price is too high imo" (in my opinion).
Back to business … remember that Musk has run afoul of the SEC for tweeting about Tesla shares in 2018, when he tweeted about potentially taking Tesla private. That is was recently settled. As part of that, Musk agreed to a pre-approval process for tweets that included public statements that could move Tesla's stock price.
As they reopen, it's important to think about a new normal. I'm excited about what we'll accomplish on the backside of this pandemic.
It challenged what we do and how we do it. In many ways, the thing that doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
With that said, I saw this video, and it struck a chord. It shows a famous orchestra playing the theme to 2001: A Space Odyssey updated for 2020's social distancing. You’ve got classical music played by classical musicians – together, but only via technology. This new form borrows from the past but creates something new. As a result, we experience a new dawn.
I encourage you to think about what the Quarantine made better for you, your family, your business, the country, or the world?
Sure, there are things that suck … but there are things that surprised!
Think about the things that you did more of during this period. Are there new things that will make sense to continue as we move back to normal? Are there things that you did less of – and it somehow made things better (or made room for better things)?
How can you combine the best of the old with the best of the new to create something even better?
Things are going back to normal … but you get to decide your new normal … and it can be better than your past.
It can be difficult to have a nuanced discussion around AI online. There's a lot of PopSci around it, people conflate a very diverse range of algorithms and intentions into the general "AI", and realistically when you get too in-depth into what algorithms are best for what problems, most people lose interest.
That's why I'm personally a proponent of any discussions around AI. Awareness is important, and if more people can understand the basics, then some subset of them will become better educated… rinse and repeat.
Robert Downey Jr. and YouTube partnered for an 8-part docuseries on the Age of AI. I've only watched one episode, but that episode did a decent job of addressing the highest-level issues with AI.
I won't go through the whole video with you – because you're quarantined and I think it's worth watching, but there are a couple of points I wanted to re-emphasize.
Your Data Is Becoming More Important, Not Less Important
"Everyone's concerned about identity theft. Meanwhile, they're giving all their data for free on the internet. I'm what I like. I'm what I don't like. I'm where I go, I'm who I know. I'm what I search. I'm my thumbprint. I am my data" – will.i.am
My son, Zach, has ultimately given up on privacy – his argument is that everyone's information is out there anyway. Even my eldest son, Ben, who is a cybersecurity expert, has semi-resigned himself to his data being out there. He takes many precautionary measures but recognizes that he's not truly anonymous.
In the video, Will.I.Am is getting an authentic reproduction of his face, mannerisms, and voice – they even got the pimple he had during the day of filming. In doing so, he specifically asks for the voice to be a bit robotic. He does this "for his mom" but in reality, it's to make clear – this is a robot, not me. It's avoiding the Uncanny Valley.
We're at an intersection where it's going to become harder to decide what's real and what's fake. With deepfake video and audio, protecting your personal brand and identity becomes difficult, and simultaneously more important.
The Path Forward
The road to AI supremacy is long and fraught with booby traps, potential missteps, and ethical issues. Questions like "how far is too far?" will have to be answered, and countries will likely strive to unite around shared rules of ethical AI.
If there's anything that makes me confident about our ability to successfully travel that road, it's looking at humanity's ability to adapt. The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning, but our definition of the machine simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day to day life.
AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical.
via 
via 
(April 17th, 2020) via 
via 
via 
via 