Market Commentary

  • Explaining Modern Finance and Economics Using Booze & Broke Alcoholics

    Here is little story that makes it easy to understand what's been going wrong in Europe (and perhaps modern finance in general). 

    From reszatonline

    Helga is the proprietor of a bar.

    She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar.

    Drunk-main

    To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. 

    Helga keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers’ loans).

    Word gets around about Helga’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Helga’s bar. Soon, she has the largest sales volume for any bar in town.

    By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Helga gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Helga’s gross sales volume increases massively.

    Ahh, an opportunity.

    A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Helga’s borrowing limit.

    He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts (of the unemployed alcoholics) as collateral!!!

    At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS.These “securities” then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

    Naive investors don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as “AA” “Secured Bonds” really are debts of unemployed alcoholics.

    Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb! And the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation’s leading brokerage houses.

    Perhaps this isn't a great idea?

    One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Helga’s bar.

    He so informs Helga.

    Helga then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons.

    However, her clients, being unemployed alcoholics, cannot pay back their drinking debts.

    Since Helga cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy.

    The bar closes, and Helga’s 11 employees lose their jobs.

    Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank’s liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

    The fall-out?

    The suppliers of Helga’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

    Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

    Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the government.

    The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Helga’s bar.

    Feel like having a drink?

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  • Explaining Modern Finance and Economics Using Booze & Broke Alcoholics

    Here is little story that makes it easy to understand what's been going wrong in Europe (and perhaps modern finance in general). 

    From reszatonline

    Helga is the proprietor of a bar.

    She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar.

    Drunk-main

    To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. 

    Helga keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers’ loans).

    Word gets around about Helga’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Helga’s bar. Soon, she has the largest sales volume for any bar in town.

    By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Helga gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Helga’s gross sales volume increases massively.

    Ahh, an opportunity.

    A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Helga’s borrowing limit.

    He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts (of the unemployed alcoholics) as collateral!!!

    At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS.These “securities” then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

    Naive investors don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as “AA” “Secured Bonds” really are debts of unemployed alcoholics.

    Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb! And the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation’s leading brokerage houses.

    Perhaps this isn't a great idea?

    One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Helga’s bar.

    He so informs Helga.

    Helga then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons.

    However, her clients, being unemployed alcoholics, cannot pay back their drinking debts.

    Since Helga cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy.

    The bar closes, and Helga’s 11 employees lose their jobs.

    Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank’s liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

    The fall-out?

    The suppliers of Helga’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

    Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

    Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the government.

    The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Helga’s bar.

    Feel like having a drink?

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  • Some Interesting Links for Your Weekend Reading

    Big News: The Twinkie is Dead.

     

    120116 The End of the Twinkie Era

     

     

    The Mayans may have been right; the world might be ending.

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • How Much Faith Do You Put in “As Goes January, So Goes the Year”?

    Does a market rally in January imply anything for the rest of the trading year?  "As goes January, so goes the year." This particular phenomenon is what is referred to as the January Barometer.

    090102 January Barometer

    Is it true?  I don't know … but it is fun to examine.

    Many reputable services report the January Barometer's recent-history success rate at around 75%; so it is at least worth noting.

    I was going through some past research and found this chart from Chart of the Day from 2009.  It illustrates that the S&P 500 has performed much better (on average) during the months following a January gain.  The chart is a few years old, but recent years have followed this trend as well.

    John Murphy has a slightly different perspective; he says that what the market does during the first week of the new year often gives a clue about direction for the remainder of the year.

    Murphy cites the Stock Trader's Almanac, "S&P gains during January's first five trading days preceded full-year gains 86% of the time". The predictive ability of the month of January is nearly as impressive. "The January Barometer predicts the year's course with a .741 batting average. 12 of the last 14 post-election years followed January's direction" (Almanac).

    While the January barometer has a good record of prediction, Carl Swenlin still puts it in the "for what it's worth" column because, while it is interesting to note, it might simply be coincidental.  Likewise, Business Insider questioned the significance of this indicator in a note called "Don't Be Fooled By All Of The So-Called Market Wisdom".

    Nevertheless, we had a good start to that first week of January here in 2012 – and it has continued.  Let's hope it keeps up.

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  • How Much Faith Do You Put in “As Goes January, So Goes the Year”?

    Does a market rally in January imply anything for the rest of the trading year?  "As goes January, so goes the year." This particular phenomenon is what is referred to as the January Barometer.

    090102 January Barometer

    Is it true?  I don't know … but it is fun to examine.

    Many reputable services report the January Barometer's recent-history success rate at around 75%; so it is at least worth noting.

    I was going through some past research and found this chart from Chart of the Day from 2009.  It illustrates that the S&P 500 has performed much better (on average) during the months following a January gain.  The chart is a few years old, but recent years have followed this trend as well.

    John Murphy has a slightly different perspective; he says that what the market does during the first week of the new year often gives a clue about direction for the remainder of the year.

    Murphy cites the Stock Trader's Almanac, "S&P gains during January's first five trading days preceded full-year gains 86% of the time". The predictive ability of the month of January is nearly as impressive. "The January Barometer predicts the year's course with a .741 batting average. 12 of the last 14 post-election years followed January's direction" (Almanac).

    While the January barometer has a good record of prediction, Carl Swenlin still puts it in the "for what it's worth" column because, while it is interesting to note, it might simply be coincidental.  Likewise, Business Insider questioned the significance of this indicator in a note called "Don't Be Fooled By All Of The So-Called Market Wisdom".

    Nevertheless, we had a good start to that first week of January here in 2012 – and it has continued.  Let's hope it keeps up.

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  • What Kind of Year Are You Expecting? Beware the Siren Song of Simple Stories.

    Imagine that a couple has arrived here from another planet, and it is your responsibility to explain the rules of life to these hypothetical aliens.

    Like you, they are facing a new year.

    Would you tell them to let the news broadcasters, newspaper columnists and the economists determine what kind of a year they would have? Is that what you would tell them?

    Or would you explain that they have freedom of thought; that they can think and make whatever plans they choose. Their coming year can be very productive, if that is what they would like it to be and if they are prepared to do what is required to reach their chosen objective.

    Admittedly, this is rather ridiculous, as we both know you are not going to be instructing any aliens. But, it is a thought that will get you focused on the positive polarity.

    We are facing a new year and we do have freedom of thought. You and I can plan to enjoy tremendous results this year. However, with all the negative energy swirling around the business community, it becomes more important than ever to make those plans. Without such plans you will, most certainly, be swept into the "I can't because …" syndrome, and you don't want that to happen.

    Beware of Stories!

    On a related note, here's an interesting TedTalk.

    Economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives — and our messy, irrational world — in terms of simple narrative.

     

     

     

    The Moral: Pay Attention to What Is Really Happening and Respond intelligently.

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  • What Kind of Year Are You Expecting? Beware the Siren Song of Simple Stories.

    Imagine that a couple has arrived here from another planet, and it is your responsibility to explain the rules of life to these hypothetical aliens.

    Like you, they are facing a new year.

    Would you tell them to let the news broadcasters, newspaper columnists and the economists determine what kind of a year they would have? Is that what you would tell them?

    Or would you explain that they have freedom of thought; that they can think and make whatever plans they choose. Their coming year can be very productive, if that is what they would like it to be and if they are prepared to do what is required to reach their chosen objective.

    Admittedly, this is rather ridiculous, as we both know you are not going to be instructing any aliens. But, it is a thought that will get you focused on the positive polarity.

    We are facing a new year and we do have freedom of thought. You and I can plan to enjoy tremendous results this year. However, with all the negative energy swirling around the business community, it becomes more important than ever to make those plans. Without such plans you will, most certainly, be swept into the "I can't because …" syndrome, and you don't want that to happen.

    Beware of Stories!

    On a related note, here's an interesting TedTalk.

    Economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives — and our messy, irrational world — in terms of simple narrative.

     

     

     

    The Moral: Pay Attention to What Is Really Happening and Respond intelligently.

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • Some Interesting Links for Your Weekend Reading

    As I'm sure you've heard, the Mayan Calendar ends this coming December.  While some believe this foretells something – others argue that it doesn't mean anything.

     

    2012 The Mayan Calendar Trading Strategy

    Bad news if you were going to base your trading plan on a December Apocalypse.

    With that out of the way, now you'll have more time to plan for the upcoming Chinese New Year … Prepare to Enter the "Year of the Dragon".

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

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