Market Commentary

  • What Peter Thiel’s “Antichrist” Lectures Reveal About Power, Spectacle, and the Architecture of Influence

    When Peter Thiel gives a talk, people listen — even when the topic sounds absurd. His recent four-part lecture series on “The Antichrist,” delivered quietly at San Francisco’s Commonwealth Club, wasn’t a theological confession. It was a strategy session hidden in plain sight.

    Thiel, the billionaire co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, has always been more interested in shaping systems than following them. Despite the theological-sounding implications of “The Antichrist lectures, they were less about religion than about recruitment — turning controversy into capital, ideas into networks, and attention into influence. It was a masterclass in the the secret architecture of modern power.

    This article is an opinion piece, but hopefully it provides some perspective and makes you think differently about his talks and the world we live in today.

    The Power of the Spectacle

    Thiel understands that spectacle builds infrastructure. What looks like provocation is often a mechanism for attracting talent, capital, and alignment.

    When he labels critics like Greta Thunberg or AI safety advocates as part of a modern “Antichrist,” he isn’t preaching apocalypse. He’s reframing the narrative — turning complex policy debates into moral showdowns between “progress” and “stagnation”, “good” and “evil”, and “us” and “them”.

    That framing does three things:

    1. Rallies allies who see themselves as defenders of innovation.
    2. Shuts down compromise by making opposition feel immoral.
    3. Creates pipelines of sympathetic people into his orbit — whether as investors, engineers, or policymakers.

    Thiel has used this playbook for decades. His contrarian campus newspaper at Stanford laid the groundwork for the early network that later became the PayPal Mafia. Each “provocation” seeds something lasting: an organization, a company, or a political foothold.

    From Theater to Infrastructure

    The cycle is predictable but powerful (and he isn’t the only one using this playbook)!

    1. Make a bold statement that challenges an elite consensus.
    2. Generate media attention — some mocking, some intrigued.
    3. Convert that attention into loyalty, funding, or influence.

    The “Antichrist” lectures follow that path. They signal to libertarian thinkers, anti-establishment technologists, and ambitious policy entrepreneurs that there’s an alternative network willing to reward dissent and action.

    Over time, those recruits show up inside Thiel-backed ventures, think tanks, and government roles. The result is a quiet ecosystem of influence — people who share Thiel’s outlook but operate independently enough to give him plausible deniability.

    Power by Proxy

    Thiel rarely holds a formal title in politics, but his fingerprints are everywhere. His protégés hold key positions in the current administration, including Vice President JD Vance and tech policy advisor David Sacks.

    The model is simple: invest early, cultivate loyalty, and let others hold the office. It’s a light form of proxy governance — influence routed through protégés, funds, and companies like Palantir.

    That distance matters. Thiel can shape outcomes without being directly accountable for them. If things go wrong, the damage is absorbed by the proxy; if they go right, the structure persists and Theil’s systems endure and expand.

    It’s the same logic that drives venture capital: spread bets, build leverage, exit before exposure.

    Portfolio Politics

    Thiel treats politics like a hedge fund manager treats a portfolio — invest when upside potential is high, step back when volatility rises, and re-enter when conditions are favorable.

    He was one of the few Silicon Valley figures to back Donald Trump early in 2016. When that bet paid off, he quietly helped fill key tech roles in the administration. As scandals mounted, he withdrew from public view — protecting his brand while his network continued to grow.

    That approach now defines a broader class of politically active billionaires. Rather than permanent loyalty, they practice situational alignment — entering and exiting political cycles the way investors trade around risk.

    The result is a marketplace of influence that operates on financial logic, rather than ideological consistency.

    Palantir: Power as Product

    Nowhere is Thiel’s strategy clearer than in Palantir, his data analytics company that supplies intelligence systems to governments around the world.

    Palantir’s tools merge disparate data sources into powerful surveillance and decision-making platforms. The irony is striking: Thiel often warns about government overreach, yet his company provides the very tools that enable it.

    Palantir’s expansion shows how spectacle transforms into structure. While Thiel distracts critics with rhetorical fireworks, his firm embeds itself deeper into the machinery of government — turning influence into infrastructure.

    By the time watchdogs notice, it’s not just a contract; it’s a dependency.

    The Visibility Game

    Thiel is a master of managing visibility — knowing when to provoke and when to disappear.

    High-visibility moments (like the “Antichrist” lectures or his RNC speech) draw attention, attract recruits, and keep his ideas circulating. But he balances that with strategic opacity: dark-money nonprofits, off-the-record talks, and layers of intermediaries that make it difficult to trace influence directly back to him.

    Visibility, for Thiel, is not about fame — it’s a control variable. When exposure threatens, he retreats into the shadows. When opportunity rises, he re-emerges to shape the conversation again.

    Why It Works

    The playbook works because it exploits how attention and trust now operate. In an era of fragmented media, a polarizing figure doesn’t need majority approval — only a committed minority who see opposition as proof of authenticity.

    Mockery from one camp signals credibility to another. Every backlash becomes free marketing.

    Thiel’s critics see demagoguery; his supporters see courage. Both drive the same outcome: a stronger network growing around him.

    Hate it or love it, you’re playing into his hand.

    The Broader Silicon Valley Pattern

    Thiel isn’t alone in this model. Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, and President Trump each use variations of the same pattern: build wealth, use contrarian rhetoric to shape public narratives, align with political movements that favor deregulation, and embed their companies into national infrastructure.

    This isn’t traditional lobbying. It’s structural capture — designing systems so your interests and the public’s become indistinguishable. When a government depends on your software, influence no longer requires persuasion; it’s built in.

    Implications for Business and Governance

    For business leaders, there are three big takeaways from Thiel’s evolving strategy.

    1. Spectacle Can Be Strategy

    In the information age, attention is leverage. But attention only matters if it feeds a system — a company, a fund, a policy agenda. Thiel’s provocations aren’t distractions; they’re signals to attract like-minded talent and capital.

    If your organization isn’t thinking about how to turn visibility into structure, you’re leaving value — and resilience — on the table.

    2. Influence Flows Through Networks, Not Titles

    Formal authority is less important than the networks that surround it. Whether in politics or business, power increasingly operates through proxies — advisors, think tanks, and companies that outlast any single election or CEO.

    Understanding those relationships is now part of strategic due diligence. Who funds whom? Who sits on which board? Whose ideas are quietly shaping policy? Mapping those links can reveal more than any headline.

    3. Transparency Is the Next Competitive Advantage

    In a landscape built on strategic opacity, honesty becomes a differentiator. Companies that disclose their political relationships and governance structures early will earn trust faster than those forced into transparency later.

    Building internal awareness — of funding sources, advisory roles, and ideological alignments — isn’t just ethics. It’s risk management.

    What Comes Next

    We’re watching a new architecture of power take shape. It’s decentralized, data-driven, and designed for anti-fragility. The traditional boundaries between business, politics, and media are dissolving.

    Ten years from now, billionaire-funded policy ecosystems will be standard infrastructure. “Proxy governance” will be the norm. And moralized, apocalyptic rhetoric will be a mainstream political tool. Not that it‘s not already present.

    That doesn’t mean the system is unstoppable. But it does mean leaders must adapt. Power today isn’t just about what you directly control; it’s about the systems you can influence, and the attention you can direct.

    The Bottom Line

    Peter Thiel’s “Antichrist” lectures weren’t really about religion. They were a masterclass in how modern influence works — how ideas, money, and media can align to shape the institutions that shape us.

    It’s easy to dismiss such performances as fringe. It’s harder to recognize them as part of the operating system of 21st-century power.

    For anyone running a business or managing capital, the lesson is simple:

    • Pay attention to the networks behind the noise.
    • Follow how spectacle feeds structure.
    • And when possible, build moats where they are least expected.

    History is written by the winners … and the real contest isn’t over who gets the microphone, it’s about who designs the stage.

    Onwards!

    P.S. Here’s a “response” from the actual antichrist. It’s pretty funny.

  • Does A Larger Workforce Mean More Millionaires?

    Does the size of a country’s workforce determine its wealthiest citizens?

    Beyond Headcount—The Real Drivers of Wealth

    In a world shaped by rapid technological change and evolving labor dynamics, this post explores which nations lead in workforce size, where millionaires reside, and why capital concentration often defies population trends.

    Recent research by Visual Capitalist sheds light on both the world’s largest workforces and the distribution of wealth among its richest citizens.

    via visualcapitalist

    Unsurprisingly, Asia dominates the global workforce, with China and India accounting for over 1.3 billion workers.

    Although the U.S. trails far behind China and India in absolute workforce size, it maintains a strong position as the world’s third-largest labor force with 174 million workers.

    Africa’s workforce is rapidly expanding – with potential to double by 2050.

    Following the Wealth Flows

    As we know, workforce isn’t the only factor that influences where wealth flows. For example:

    • Global trade & resource distribution,
    • Financial & governmental policies,
    • Urbanization & tech Infrastructure,
    • And, access to opportunities

    Where Wealth Accumulates

    In 2025, we’ve surpassed 60 million millionaires worldwide.

    Together, this group holds over $226 trillion in wealth.

    via visualcapitalist

    America, China, and France top the list – holding over half the global total. If you were to imagine the list as 10 people, four would live in America, one would live in China, and the rest would be scattered across the globe.

    France, Germany, and the UK, are relatively small populations boasting outsized ratios of millionaires.

    Notably, almost 1/10 American adults are millionaires (Luxembourg and Switzerland top this ratio with 1/7). That surprises me.

    Also, while major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco remain millionaire hubs, Scottsdale, Arizona, actually boasts the fastest millionaire growth over the last decade.

    Ultimately, I think it’s clear that a large labor force doesn’t necessarily translate into a large population of millionaires. Countries like India and Indonesia rank among the biggest contributors to the global workforce, yet their per capita wealth remains modest. Meanwhile, nations such as the United States, Japan, and Germany — home to far smaller workforces — consistently dominate global millionaire rankings.

    Why Efficiency Beats Size

    Countries like the United States demonstrate how access to markets and capital, combined with robust innovation ecosystems, drive wealth far beyond population scale.

    The difference lies less in the number of workers and more in the structure of opportunity: productivity, access to capital, innovation, and financial markets create wealth far faster than population alone. In short, a big workforce builds economies — but efficient systems and upward mobility build millionaires.

    Economic opportunity grows when connections (between people, ideas, and markets) multiply — think of a telephone network: one phone is useless, but as more connect, the system’s value rises exponentially.

    Disruptive innovation often happens in small, focused markets before scaling. Early adoption, not just raw numbers, signals where outsized returns will come.

    As AI continues to shift productivity from in-person humans to digital agents, the very nature of value, employment, and opportunity will likely undergo a profound transformation. It will also change what we believe is possible.

    For example, I expect to see a one-person Unicorn as artificial agent technologies become more capable, scalable, and adaptive.

    Conclusion: Building Pathways to Prosperity

    In summary, a large labor force may grow economies, but upward mobility and innovation are the true engines of millionaire creation. For leaders aiming to foster national prosperity, the goal should be cultivating efficient, inclusive systems — not merely expanding the workforce.

    We live in interesting times!

  • The Rise of Stablecoins

    A few months ago, I wrote about how cryptocurrency was entering the mainstream.

    To recap that piece: I’ve historically been skeptical and resistant about crypto on several fronts. Still, I’ve recognized that blockchain and decentralized finance are here to stay.

    One of my biggest arguments against crypto is that governments have fiercely protected their right to print money and tax it. Now, even governments are warming up to crypto. Additionally, regulators are getting on board. Big banks and established industries are creating infrastructure. As the momentum builds, the push toward crypto seems unavoidable.

    New giants were — and are —forming. Coinbase recently joined the S&P 500. Circle just had a wildly successful IPO. The performance of stocks like these also hints at a growing market appetite for crypto-focused businesses.

    Some of this momentum has been fueled by policy shifts during the Trump presidency and his administration’s openness to the space. Yet even with that tailwind, I believe there are still significant barriers to the adoption of most cryptocurrencies—barriers that stablecoins, in particular, are designed to address.

    The Stablecoin Surge

    Since that article, tremendous growth continues. And if you haven’t paid attention to stablecoins yet, it’s time to start paying attention.

    What is a Stablecoin?

    Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to a traditional currency like the US dollar (e.g., 1 stablecoin = $1 USD). Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, which can swing wildly in price, stablecoins aim for predictability.

    Think of stablecoins as the digital equivalent of cash — useful for transactions, storing value, and moving money across borders without the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies.

    via visualcapitalist

    The stablecoin market has seen a 10X increase in just five years. In fact, their transfer volume is now more than both Visa and Mastercard.

    They’ve quickly grown from a niche asset to one of the fastest-growing market segments.

    Citi projects that the market will grow 6.7X to 14.2X in the next 5 years. Their justification is based on three main pillars.

    • the reallocation of US cash and deposits into digital tokens,
    • the substitution of international short-term liquidity tools with stablecoins,
    • and the growing role of stablecoins as the backbone of cryptocurrency adoption (in a growing ecosystem)

    It’s also worth noting that stablecoins have become a kind of “parking spot” for capital moving in and out of crypto trades. As smart contracts have enabled holders to earn yield by lending, providing liquidity, or farming rewards, stablecoins’ appeal has only grown.

    A Glimpse of Crypto’s Future

    It’s easy to imagine a future of money built on digital tokens. Stablecoins appear to be the first step toward that future.

    Just like everything else … it’s happening faster than you think.

    A few weeks ago, we took a look at the state of the US dollar.

    This week, visualcapitalist released a graphic looking the value of stablecoins in relation to US cash in circulation.

    via visualcapitalist

    Comparing the market value of stablecoins to the amount of U.S. currency in circulation (bills and coins) shows that stablecoins now make up about 11% of that total. That’s a remarkable jump in just five years.

    The industry keeps innovating, and stablecoins are increasingly becoming part of traditional finance. I expect this trend to grow faster soon.

    What’s your opinion on how quickly stablecoins might transform the monetary landscape?

  • The History of Government Shutdowns

    Introduction: The October 2025 Shutdown

    When Congress failed to agree on a last-minute deal on October 1, 2025, the United States faced its eleventh federal government shutdown — forcing hundreds of thousands of workers into furlough, halting essential services, and sending shockwaves through the nation.

    Though often discussed in the abstract, government shutdowns have tangible consequences — missed paychecks, shuttered programs, and an atmosphere of uncertainty for millions of Americans.

    What led to this impasse, and how does it compare to shutdowns of the past?

    This standoff is marked by familiar accusations of brinkmanship from both parties — Republicans advocating a ‘clean’ funding extension, while Democrats insist on safeguarding healthcare subsidies and advancing key priorities before any agreement is reached.

    The fallout and costs reach far beyond furloughed government workers. It also affects broader economic stability. and millions of Americans who rely on federal services.

    A Brief History of Federal Shutdowns

    This is the 11th shutdown in our history. However, before the 1980s, funding gaps typically did not affect government operations, as agencies assumed funding would eventually be approved.

    The most recent prior shutdown, in 2019, centered on funding for President Trump’s border wall with Mexico and dragged on for 34 days — setting the record for the longest shutdown in American history.

    While the duration of this shutdown remains uncertain, historical shutdowns offer important perspective.

    via voronoi

    Obviously, the duration of this one is unclear. It is likely it will end via a “continuing resolution” which has ended every shutdown since the 90s.

    As a whole, funding gaps have grown longer in recent shutdowns, so many are assuming this one will continue that trend.

    Although we hope that cooler heads will prevail, today’s sharply divided political climate makes a swift end to the shutdown unlikely.

    Is It Different This Time?

    According to The Hill, GOP senators thought they were close on Thursday to a bipartisan agreement that would have led to the end of the shutdown. On Friday, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer urged his colleagues to resist the House-passed funding measure until Republicans made significant concessions on extending the health premium tax credits.

    It’s entirely possible that Trump will use this shutdown as further justification to cut agencies and fire federal employees. It’s also a potential tool to put pressure on Democrats to vote for the funding bill to pass.

    Regardless, as of today, Democrats are holding firm in their opposition, with Schumer arguing that 70% of Americans support the ACA premium tax credit.

    What’s at Stake?

    It’s an interesting time to be an American. Last week, we talked about the potential need to reimagine the American Dream: Although buying a home and raising a family has become more challenging, we simultaneously live in an era of unprecedented prosperity and opportunity.

    Despite these advantages, rates of unhappiness, loneliness, and distrust in institutions have been rising. This tension between abundance and discontent now defines the American experience. It’s a sobering reminder that material progress does not guarantee unity, shared purpose, or collective well-being.

    As Americans await a resolution, this stalemate serves as a reflection of deeper divisions within our society. Beyond deadlines and dollars, the shutdown raises a pressing question:

    What will it take for our leaders (and our nation) to move beyond gridlock and toward lasting unity?

    Onwards!

  • The State of the American Dream: Average Income vs. Average Cost of Living Across The US

    Is the American Dream still within reach for the average American today? For many Millennialsand Gen Z, it feels farther out of reach than ever. 

    In the 20th century, the American Dream centered on owning a home, securing a good job, and maintaining financial stability. But does that dream still match today’s financial realities? Recent maps comparing state incomes and living costs reveal just how far many Americans are from achieving financial comfort.

    via visualcapitalist

    The average full-time salary for all adults as of Q2 2025 is approximately $62K. Predictably, that figure rises in higher-cost metropolitan areas and dips in rural regions, with Washington, D.C., standing out as a notable high point.

    However, income alone reveals little about the actual quality of life or whether someone can live ‘comfortably’. That’s why Visual Capitalist looked at how well individual needs are met across America using the classic 50/30/20 rule — allocating 50% of income to essentials,30% to discretionary spending, and 20% to saving or investing.

    via visualcapitalist

    In many states, single earners face a sizable gap between median pay and what’s needed for comfort. For families, the math becomes even more challenging.

    via visualcapitalist

    For more context, see:

    Clearly, being “middle class” doesn’t mean being “comfortable” in today’s economy. Households in the five most expensive states need nearly twice the average incomejust to meet basic comfort levels. Unsurprisingly, housing costs are a major part of this gap.

    It raises important questions: How have these disparities changed since the 1980s or ’90s? Have wage increases failed to keep up with the rising costs of essentials, even as technology and living standards have advanced?

    These charts also point to practical strategies. Decades ago, moving to a big city often meant earning higher wages and finding better opportunities. Today, for many workers, the opposite might be true: pursuing remote-friendly roles and relocating to more affordable areas can lead to a better standard of living. Likewise, developing skills in tech-related or future-proof fields can also give workers more leverage.

    Ultimately, the data emphasizes the growing significance of location, flexibility, and early career choices — while highlighting a larger challenge: ensuring that economic growth and productivity gains turn into real purchasing power.

    While innovation and economic growth have transformed our lives, they haven’t yet led to true financial security for the average American. To make the American Dream more accessible again, we need to address the widening gap between paychecks and the cost of living — even as our economy continues to expand. Recognizing this gap is the first step toward closing it.

    The challenge: how do we turn today’s progress into tomorrow’s prosperity?

    Onwards.

  • A Look at the American Dollar Compared to Global Currencies

    In 2025, the U.S. Dollar has experienced its biggest decline in over twenty years. A drop of more than 10% in a primary global currency is always significant — and this decrease is sending shockwaves through markets, policy discussions, and consumers’ budgets. But what’s truly driving this change, and what does it mean for you?

    While substantial, the Dollar’s decline is just one of several significant moves among major currencies. For a broader perspective, here is a chart highlighting key global currency trends this year.

    via voronoi

    The Brazilian Real is up 15.4% YTD, while the Swiss Franc, the Euro, and the Mexican Peso have each gained more than 10% this year.

    Nevertheless, the U.S. Dollar continues to assert its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency, a status it has maintained since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. This means it is the main currency held by central banks to support international transactions and reduce exchange rate risk. Additionally, it remains the global benchmark against which other currencies are measured.

    So, why is the U.S. Dollar down, and why does it matter?

    View Full Image via visualcapitalist

    A strong currency benefits consumers by making imports more affordable and helping to keep inflation under control. A weaker currency, on the other hand, can be a tailwind for exporters by lowering the global price of their goods, but it also drives up import costs and can stoke inflationary pressures.

    The Dollar’s movement reflects not only U.S. conditions but also global ones. As the world’s reserve currency, it responds more directly to worldwide economic forces than most others. This year, soft U.S. GDP projections, high inflation, and the Fed’s shift toward lower interest rates have all contributed to downward pressure on the dollar. But that’s not the whole story. 

    Of course, no single factor explains the market. The Dollar’s decline isn’t a death knell, just as a surge wouldn’t be proof of perfect health. It’s one signal among many in a complex economic picture.

    When discussing negative indicators, it’s just as important to highlight the positive ones — including America’s historical resiliency. While headlines often focus on the dollar’s decline, history shows it has weathered many challenges and thus remains the world’s dominant reserve currency.

    For investors and consumers, the lesson is: stay informed, understand the broader economic context, and avoid overreacting to short-term swings. Currency markets move in cycles, and the dollar’s influence won’t disappear overnight.

    ‘Intentional patience’ often outperforms impulsive action, in trading and in business. By tracking market trends, understanding the underlying factors, and recognizing how currency shifts impact trade, prices, and investments, you can respond strategically rather than reactively to the news cycle.

  • The Current State of AI Chatbots

    Chatbots have come a long way from the quirky digital curiosities of the early 2000s (like AOL Instant Messenger’s SmarterChild) to the sophisticated AI chatbots and agents we see today. They’ve become essential tools in both business and daily life.

    These tools are having an increasingly global impact, answering customer service questions on retail sites, guiding patients through scheduling in healthcare, providing instant support in banking and insurance, and even acting as digital concierges for travel and hospitality. Inside companies, they streamline HR requests, provide IT troubleshooting, and deliver training. Beyond business, they power personal assistants on our phones, manage smart home devices, and help people learn new skills and appear more caring to those they care about. This widespread adoption reflects how quickly these tools have become part of our daily lives. 

    Chatbots have transformed how we interact with digital services, but their uptake varies significantly around the globe. What do current usage trends say about the future of this rapidly evolving technology? A recent chart from Visual Capitalist sheds light on “The 10 Most-Used AI Chatbots in 2025,” showcasing the swift adoption and dominance of major platforms.

    via visualcapitalist

    ChatGPT now averages over 5 billion monthly visits and accounts for nearly half of global chatbot traffic. 

    DeepSeek, Gemini, Peplexity, and Claudefollow relatively closely behind. 

    While Poe has experienced a significant decline in usage, Xai’s Grok, Meta, and Mistral are gaining steam. 

    It’s also interesting to look at which countries are adopting the technologies, and which ones remain the most resistant. This chart shows “How Often People Use ChatGPT.”

    via visualcapitalist

    Today, in the US, fewer than 20% of citizens report using chatbots daily. Meanwhile, India, Pakistan, and Kenya all poll at over 25%. 

    At the lower end of the spectrum, countries like Chile, Argentina, Germany, Italy, and Australia all report daily chatbot use by fewer than 10% of the population. Japan has the lowest rate, with just 6% of people saying they use chatbots daily, and a notable 42% saying they hardly ever interact with the technology. These differences are probably due to factors such as cultural attitudes toward technology and how people report their own habits.

    In contrast, “weekly usage” rates are notably more consistent across different countries, suggesting broader but less frequent interaction. 

    Just as search engines, social networks, and smartphones each converged on a few dominant players, the chatbot landscape is likely to consolidate, offering a clearer and more streamlined experience for users. 

    As chatbots advance, their impact will depend not just on technological advancements, but also on how well they build trust, integrate seamlessly, and adjust to different cultural norms. The question still stands: which platform will become the go-to digital companion?

    Let’s turn this into a conversation. I’m curious about your favorite AI platforms and reasons why.

  • Emerging Markets: A 2019 Prediction, Revisited

    For decades, the United States has stood at the forefront of the global economic landscape. Beneath the surface, a power shift is reshaping the future faster than most imagined.

    Volatility and unpredictability, typically seen as risks, are actually catalysts for growth in emerging economies. This tension—between chaos and opportunity — underscores why linear forecasts often fail.

    Revisiting 2019’s Bold Prediction

    Back in 2019, the prospect of India surpassing the U.S. economy seemed far-fetched. Yet, only 6 years later, India’s meteoric rise is undeniable, with India ranking as the world’s fifth-largest economy.

    via visualcapitalist

    Economic scoreboards look nothing like they did in 2019 … some countries have soared, others stalled, and a few have leapfrogged expectations entirely. In 2019, the world watched as trade wars rattled markets and headlines predicted that the US-China rivalry would drive the global order. But beneath the noise, we were already seeing a new world order emerge. In 2019, Standard Chartered projected that by 2030, 7 of the world’s 10 largest economies would be “emerging markets.”

    Fast forward six years. The story is now unfolding in real time.

    Where the Predictions Landed — and Missed

    India stands out—it’s become the world’s fifth-largest economy and shows impressive GDP growth, fueled by a massive digital expansion.

    Meanwhile, Indonesia has continued its steady climb (and is much larger and more formidable than many Americans realize), Brazil has stabilized after a turbulent decade, and Turkey and Egypt have faced more mixed results due to inflation and currency crises—but they remain on growth trajectories that keep them relevant.

    Still, China and the U.S. are the two dominant powerhouses. However, the narrative has shifted: China’s growth is slowing, and India is increasingly seen as the next global growth engine. Meanwhile, Africa’s rapid population growth and urbanization signal its emergence as home to several future megacities. The point … the global balance of power is indeed shifting, just not as evenly as those early forecasts suggested.

    While 2019’s more sensational forecasts (such as Egypt’s predicted 583% growth) were overly optimistic, the core thesis — demographics and maturing economies reshaping global markets — has largely proved accurate.

    Emerging markets are growing rapidly. However, despite progress, many emerging markets face growing pains, especially as global debt levels rise and climate shocks intensify. Regardless, it’s clear that “emerging markets” have already arrived. 

    What’s Next for Emerging Markets?

    Looking forward, it’s worth watching countries that didn’t make those early lists but are now outperforming expectations.

    Vietnam has become a manufacturing powerhouse and a prime beneficiary of supply-chain shifts. Companies wanted a backup to China, so they picked Vietnam. Now, it’s making phones, clothes, and more—helping the country’s economy grow quickly.

    Gulf economies, such as those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are leveraging their energy wealth to diversify their strategies. The goal is to move beyond just oil. They’re building new cities, inviting tourists, and investing in clean energy, so their future isn’t just about pumping oil—but about new ideas and significant changes.

    Even smaller economies in Africa, such as Nigeria and Kenya, are experiencing digital and demographic tailwinds that could significantly reshape their trajectories. Young people are leapfrogging old industries and jumping straight into tech. With creative ideas and energy, they’re making apps and online businesses, turning into new world tech hotspots.

    Add in unpredictable forces … geopolitical realignments, AI-driven productivity, climate resilience, and energy transitions … and the map of global economic power could look even more surprising by 2030 than any chart we saw back in 2019.

    The next decade isn’t just about who ascends fastest — it’s about who can adapt and endure. In the age of disruption, resilience may be the new measure of power.

  • Is Luck Something You Create?

    This article explores the fine line between luck and skill in business, trading, and life. You’ll learn why success often comes from preparation and adaptability—not just fortunate timing—and discover actionable strategies for identifying and nurturing genuine skill in any competitive arena.

    Picture a trader making millions in a raging bull market. Are they a genius, or just riding a wave of market luck? Now, picture yourself in their shoes. How do you know if tomorrow’s market crash will expose a lack of skill or confirm your edge?

    Distinguishing luck from skill isn’t just a Wall Street problem—it’s the secret sauce behind enduring careers, resilient businesses, and long-term success stories everywhere.

    Introduction: The Illusion of Streaks

    Imagine achieving an unbroken streak of successes—so improbable that it seems almost magical. Was it raw talent, or was the universe simply smiling on you?

    It’s human nature to believe it was your skill.

    Now, imagine someone else achieved that streak. It is comforting to attribute some of that to luck.

    What about a series of coin flips that land on heads twenty-five times in a row? Was that lucky, or have you discovered a new law of probability?

    Easy, that was just luck.

    This highlights a common trap known as confirmation bias: when things go well, we tend to attribute our success to our skill; when they don’t, we blame it on bad luck. Recognizing this bias is essential if we want to improve; otherwise, we risk falling into blind spots that prevent us from learning.

    In 2016, I wrote an article about differentiating between luck and skill in trading. Those concepts seem even more relevant today as I spend more time talking with entrepreneurs and AI enthusiasts.

    The Psychology of Success: Luck, Skill, and the Illusion of Mastery

    Luck comes in many flavors. Most people prefer good luck to bad luck.

    Focusing on the good, there are many lucky individuals in the business world. Perhaps they made a good decision at the right time – and are now on top of the world. Luck isn’t a bad thing — but building your entire strategy around it is a risky bet for lasting success. Why? Because you might get lucky once, but it’s unlikely you’ll get lucky every time.

    As the saying goes, luck favors the prepared mind—especially those capable of discerning where skill ends and luck begins.

    The Coin Flipping Contest: A Case Study in Probability

    20250831 Coin FlipFirst, let’s examine luck a little bit. To do that, think about a nationwide coin-flipping contest. Initially, each citizen is paired up with another for a contest. The winner goes on to the next round. Think how many rounds you would need to win to be City Champion, State Champion, Regional Champion, etc. Ultimately, someone would have won many coin-flip contests to make it to the final rounds of the tournament. Assuming they didn’t cheat, they were lucky. Does the winner have an edge? If so, what could it be?

    Suppose you followed the contest from beginning to end. As you approached the Championship Round, can you imagine the Finalists doing articles or interviews about how their mindfulness practice gives them an edge … or, how the law of attraction was the secret…. or, how the power of prayer makes all the difference.

    Occam’s Razor often applies: the best explanation is usually the simplest—someone had to win, and this time, it was luck, not mastery.

    In any competition, someone will always win, but that doesn’t mean the winner is always the most skilled.

    Luck isn’t just in trading or tech. Think of sports — sometimes, a championship hinges on a referee’s call or an unexpected bounce, not just one team’s superior skill. In music, countless talented musicians remain undiscovered, while some viral videos catapult their creators into overnight stardom. That’s the unpredictable role of luck at work in every field.

    Warren Buffett once remarked: ‘It’s only when the tide goes out that you discover who’s been swimming naked.’ Success in a favorable market can look like skill — but only real skill endures when times get tough.

    Likewise, just because a product or business generates revenue doesn’t necessarily prove it has a competitive edge. Every day, countless new AI-based apps are released. Many make money, some even become popular, but how many of them will still be here 5 years from now? Often, the businesses that are doing the best aren’t actually the ones providing the best service; they’re the ones with the best marketing & the most luck. 

    Lessons from Dot-Coms and Startups

    Remember the dot-com era in the late ’90s? For every Amazon or Google that survived, hundreds like Pets.com and Webvan didn’t. Success often wasn’t about being the best; it was about timing, adaptability—and, sometimes, pure luck.

    Focusing solely on current profitability can mean you might have a genuine edge—or you might have simply experienced a streak of good luck. If it isn’t just a matter of winning, how do we determine if we’re skillful? In trading, we refer to this as “Alpha” — the measure of a strategy’s returns attributable to genuine skill, rather than market trends or lucky breaks. Thus, the search for alpha is the search for clues that help identify systems with an edge (or at least an edge in certain market conditions).

    Unfortunately, I cannot provide you with a single rule to follow in distinguishing between skill and luck. Still, it’s much easier to find the answer if you actively seek to differentiate between the two. Recognizing whether preparation or fortune played the bigger part requires conscious, continuous examination.

    The reality is that most situations aren’t as purely luck-based as a coin-flipping contest. Many people appear lucky because they put themselves in the right situations and did the gritty work behind the scenes to prepare themselves for opportunities. 

    Do You Really Have an Edge? Validation Matters

    That’s where skill (and the ability to filter out bad opportunities) comes in. 

    Internally, we’ve built validation protocols to help filter out systems that got lucky or those that cannot replicate their results on unseen data.

    It is exciting as we solve more of the bits and pieces of this puzzle.

    What we have learned is that one of the secrets to long-term success is (unsurprisingly) adaptability.

    What that looks like for us is a library of systems ready to respond to any market condition — and a focus on improving our ability to select the systems that are “in-phase dynamically”. The secret isn’t predicting the future, but responding faster — and more reliably — to changing environments.

    From a business perspective, this means being willing to adapt to and adopt new technologies without losing sight of a bigger ‘why,’ as we discussed in this article.

    A Practical Example

    When we first wrote about this, one of Capitalogix’s advisors wrote back to confirm their understanding of the coin-flipping analogy.

    The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 25 times in a row is roughly 1-in-33 million. So if we have 33 million flippers and 100 get 25 heads in a row, statistically that is very improbable.  We can deduce that group of 100 is a combination of some lucky flippers, but also that some have a "flipping edge."  We may not be able to say which is which, but as a group our 100 will still consistently provide an edge in future flip-offs.

    Well, that is correct. If we were developing coin-flipping agents, that would be as far as we could go. However, we are in luck because our trading “problem” has an extra dimension, which makes it possible to filter out some of the “lucky” trading systems.

    Determining Which are the Best Systems.

    There are several ways to determine whether a trading system has a persistent edge. For example, we can examine the market returns during the trading period and compare them with the trading results. This is significant because many systems have either a long or short bias. That means even if a system does not have an edge, it would be more likely to turn a profit when its bias aligns with the market. You can try to correct that bias using math and statistical magic to determine whether the system has a predictive edge. It Is a Lot Simpler Than It Sounds.

    Imagine a system that picks trades based on a roulette spin. Instead of numbers or colors, the wheel is filled with “Go Long” and “Go Short” selections. As long as the choices are balanced, the system is random. But what if the roulette wheel had more opportunities for “long” selections than “short” selections?

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    This random system would appear to be “in-phase” whenever the market is in an uptrend. But does it have an edge?

    One Way To Calculate Whether You Have An Edge.

    Let’s say that you test a particular trading system on hourly bars of the S&P 500 Index from January 2000 until today.

    1. The first thing you need is the total net profit of the system for all its trades.
    2. The second thing you need to calculate is the percentage of time spent long and short during the test period.
    3. Third, you need to generate a reasonably large population of entirely random entries and exits with the same percentage of long/short times as your back-tested results (this step can be repeated multiple times to create a range of results).
    4. Fourth, use statistical inference to calculate the average profit of these random entry tests for that same test period.
    5. Finally, subtract that amount from the total back-tested net profit from the first step.

    According to the law of large numbers, in the case of the “roulette” system illustrated above, correcting for bias this way, the P&L of random systems would end up close to zero … while systems with real predictive power would be left with significant residual profits after the bias correction. While the math isn’t complicated, the process is still challenging because it requires substantial resources to crunch that many numbers for hundreds of thousands of Bots. Luckily, RAM, CPU cycles, and disk space continue to become cheaper and more powerful.

    If your success can’t be replicated with new data, it may have been luck all along.

    Conclusion: Tipping the Odds In Your Favor

    Anyone can tally a win-loss column; far fewer can tell whether it was smarts, skill, or serendipity that made the difference. This is where rigorous analysis becomes invaluable.

    Obviously, luck and skill affect every aspect of experience (from adopting technology, starting a business, transitioning from a product-based to a platform-based business model, or countless other scenarios).

    In most situations, the secret is to determine what data is relevant to your industry, as well as what data you’re creating. Figure out how to analyze it. Figure out how to do that consistently, autonomously, and efficiently. Then … test.

    It’s not sexy, and it’s not complicated.

    We live in a ready, fire, aim era. The speed of innovation is staggering, and the capital and energy required to create an app or start a business are at an all-time low. A bias for action is powerful.

    Luck and a bias for action will take you further than most – but it still won’t take you far enough.

    If you want to explore this topic further, consider reading “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb or “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. Both offer deeper insights into the psychology of luck and skill in markets and life.

    Staying Honest

    To conclude, I’ll leave you with a question…

    If you’re reading this, you’ve almost certainly been lucky and skillful. Take a minute to list at least one thing you attribute to luck — and one to skill — in your career and life. With that in mind, what could you do differently in the future to tip the odds in your favor?

    Try this, too: Next time you celebrate a big win, ask: Did I make my own luck, or did I simply wait for it to strike? In the end, the real edge belongs to those who learn to prepare, adapt — and still stay humble enough to know when fortune lent a hand.

  • A Look At The $127 Trillion Global Stock Market

    The world’s stock markets are more intertwined and unpredictable than ever. As we step into 2025, the landscape is dominated by record highs, emerging uncertainties, and shifting regional dynamics. What forces are redrawing the map—and how should forward-looking investors respond?

    Here is a look at global stock markets. Worldwide, they represented $127 trillion in value in 2024, with U.S. markets accounting for nearly half of that amount. 

     

    20250831 Global-Stock-Market_VC_Terzo_Main

    via visualcapitalist

    Global Market Snapshot

    For comparison, the global market has grown over 14% since 2023, when its value was approximately $111 trillion.

    U.S. Dominance vs. Global Opportunity. While U.S. markets account for nearly half of the global value, it’s striking how far behind China and the EU lag. It is worth examining why … and what may lie ahead.

    Regional Comparisons

    Let’s consider how other major regions are faring.

    China’s stock market growth remains sluggish, held back by cautious consumers and the unpredictability of shifting government policies. The EU’s performance declined slightly in 2024, and faces headwinds from high interest rates and shifting energy dynamics. Meanwhile, emerging markets show wide variation—technology-driven countries outperform, while others lag due to policy or global uncertainty. 

    Here is a slightly deeper look at each.

    China: Stimulus and Uncertainty. China’s government is attempting to stimulate its economy by reducing interest rates, repurchasing stocks, and increasing spending. That sounds positive, but people are still spending less, houses aren’t selling well, and the government often changes rules unexpectedly. Most regular Chinese don’t own stocks. For global investors, China is an intriguing yet risky market — one where outside forces frequently cause sudden shifts.

    Europe: Value Amid Headwinds. Europe’s economy is diverse—its markets are a mix of banks, factories, and some technology. Wages are rising, and governments are spending. Sounds positive, but factors such as higher interest rates and global events continue to hinder progress. As a result, European stocks are generally cheaper than U.S. stocks, almost like a “value menu.” For investors, Europe remains a "safe harbor" steady option that can help balance out a portfolio, but don’t expect fireworks unless a few key factors break in their favor.

    Emerging Markets: Technology’s Outliers. Meanwhile, emerging markets are more complex and susceptible to the influence of changing factors. Some countries, such as Taiwan and South Korea, are thriving thanks to strong technology growth. Others, such as Russia and Brazil, face challenges due to limited investment and instability. These markets are volatile, offering both high risk and potentially high reward..

    Takeaways for Investors

    The global market’s leadership is not set in stone; it is a rolling contest shaped by policy, innovation, and disruption. For investors and strategists, now is the time to reexamine assumptions, rebalance risks, and prepare for whatever comes next. In this era of constant change, adaptability—not allegiance—will be the source of enduring advantage.

    Savvy investors spread their bets, recognizing that overconcentration in any single market can amplify both gains and risks.

    For all the varied fears in Americans’ minds, U.S. dominance is driven not only by the strength of tech giants, but also by resilient consumer sectors and deep capital markets that set global standards. 

    As a result, America’s share of the global market increased approximately 7% over the past year, while China’s share has remained stable, and the EU’s share has declined slightly. 

    The good news for U.S investors is that global market capitalization is rising, and so is our share of it.

    It’s easy to find reasons to be afraid or tentative … but it’s just as easy to find reasons to take confident action.

    Looking ahead, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and new technology breakthroughs could all shift the balance of global market leadership. So could the growth of digital assets. Investors must consider what will happen next if these trends continue (or suddenly reverse).

    Policy shifts in China or the EU could spark sudden capital flows, triggering domino effects that shape the next phase of market evolution.

    Market leadership can change in an instant. In this climate, agility wins. Prepare, diversify, and stay alert—because in the world of investing, standing still is the biggest risk of all.

    History has shown that the most prosperous periods are those that encourage creative destruction and reinvention.

    You can't predict the future, but you can prepare for it.