Market Commentary

  • The State of the American Dream: Average Income vs. Average Cost of Living Across The US

    Is the American Dream still within reach for the average American today? For many Millennialsand Gen Z, it feels farther out of reach than ever. 

    In the 20th century, the American Dream centered on owning a home, securing a good job, and maintaining financial stability. But does that dream still match today’s financial realities? Recent maps comparing state incomes and living costs reveal just how far many Americans are from achieving financial comfort.

    via visualcapitalist

    The average full-time salary for all adults as of Q2 2025 is approximately $62K. Predictably, that figure rises in higher-cost metropolitan areas and dips in rural regions, with Washington, D.C., standing out as a notable high point.

    However, income alone reveals little about the actual quality of life or whether someone can live ‘comfortably’. That’s why Visual Capitalist looked at how well individual needs are met across America using the classic 50/30/20 rule — allocating 50% of income to essentials,30% to discretionary spending, and 20% to saving or investing.

    via visualcapitalist

    In many states, single earners face a sizable gap between median pay and what’s needed for comfort. For families, the math becomes even more challenging.

    via visualcapitalist

    For more context, see:

    Clearly, being “middle class” doesn’t mean being “comfortable” in today’s economy. Households in the five most expensive states need nearly twice the average incomejust to meet basic comfort levels. Unsurprisingly, housing costs are a major part of this gap.

    It raises important questions: How have these disparities changed since the 1980s or ’90s? Have wage increases failed to keep up with the rising costs of essentials, even as technology and living standards have advanced?

    These charts also point to practical strategies. Decades ago, moving to a big city often meant earning higher wages and finding better opportunities. Today, for many workers, the opposite might be true: pursuing remote-friendly roles and relocating to more affordable areas can lead to a better standard of living. Likewise, developing skills in tech-related or future-proof fields can also give workers more leverage.

    Ultimately, the data emphasizes the growing significance of location, flexibility, and early career choices — while highlighting a larger challenge: ensuring that economic growth and productivity gains turn into real purchasing power.

    While innovation and economic growth have transformed our lives, they haven’t yet led to true financial security for the average American. To make the American Dream more accessible again, we need to address the widening gap between paychecks and the cost of living — even as our economy continues to expand. Recognizing this gap is the first step toward closing it.

    The challenge: how do we turn today’s progress into tomorrow’s prosperity?

    Onwards.

  • A Look at the American Dollar Compared to Global Currencies

    In 2025, the U.S. Dollar has experienced its biggest decline in over twenty years. A drop of more than 10% in a primary global currency is always significant — and this decrease is sending shockwaves through markets, policy discussions, and consumers’ budgets. But what’s truly driving this change, and what does it mean for you?

    While substantial, the Dollar’s decline is just one of several significant moves among major currencies. For a broader perspective, here is a chart highlighting key global currency trends this year.

    via voronoi

    The Brazilian Real is up 15.4% YTD, while the Swiss Franc, the Euro, and the Mexican Peso have each gained more than 10% this year.

    Nevertheless, the U.S. Dollar continues to assert its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency, a status it has maintained since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. This means it is the main currency held by central banks to support international transactions and reduce exchange rate risk. Additionally, it remains the global benchmark against which other currencies are measured.

    So, why is the U.S. Dollar down, and why does it matter?

    View Full Image via visualcapitalist

    A strong currency benefits consumers by making imports more affordable and helping to keep inflation under control. A weaker currency, on the other hand, can be a tailwind for exporters by lowering the global price of their goods, but it also drives up import costs and can stoke inflationary pressures.

    The Dollar’s movement reflects not only U.S. conditions but also global ones. As the world’s reserve currency, it responds more directly to worldwide economic forces than most others. This year, soft U.S. GDP projections, high inflation, and the Fed’s shift toward lower interest rates have all contributed to downward pressure on the dollar. But that’s not the whole story. 

    Of course, no single factor explains the market. The Dollar’s decline isn’t a death knell, just as a surge wouldn’t be proof of perfect health. It’s one signal among many in a complex economic picture.

    When discussing negative indicators, it’s just as important to highlight the positive ones — including America’s historical resiliency. While headlines often focus on the dollar’s decline, history shows it has weathered many challenges and thus remains the world’s dominant reserve currency.

    For investors and consumers, the lesson is: stay informed, understand the broader economic context, and avoid overreacting to short-term swings. Currency markets move in cycles, and the dollar’s influence won’t disappear overnight.

    ‘Intentional patience’ often outperforms impulsive action, in trading and in business. By tracking market trends, understanding the underlying factors, and recognizing how currency shifts impact trade, prices, and investments, you can respond strategically rather than reactively to the news cycle.

  • The Current State of AI Chatbots

    Chatbots have come a long way from the quirky digital curiosities of the early 2000s (like AOL Instant Messenger’s SmarterChild) to the sophisticated AI chatbots and agents we see today. They’ve become essential tools in both business and daily life.

    These tools are having an increasingly global impact, answering customer service questions on retail sites, guiding patients through scheduling in healthcare, providing instant support in banking and insurance, and even acting as digital concierges for travel and hospitality. Inside companies, they streamline HR requests, provide IT troubleshooting, and deliver training. Beyond business, they power personal assistants on our phones, manage smart home devices, and help people learn new skills and appear more caring to those they care about. This widespread adoption reflects how quickly these tools have become part of our daily lives. 

    Chatbots have transformed how we interact with digital services, but their uptake varies significantly around the globe. What do current usage trends say about the future of this rapidly evolving technology? A recent chart from Visual Capitalist sheds light on “The 10 Most-Used AI Chatbots in 2025,” showcasing the swift adoption and dominance of major platforms.

    via visualcapitalist

    ChatGPT now averages over 5 billion monthly visits and accounts for nearly half of global chatbot traffic. 

    DeepSeek, Gemini, Peplexity, and Claudefollow relatively closely behind. 

    While Poe has experienced a significant decline in usage, Xai’s Grok, Meta, and Mistral are gaining steam. 

    It’s also interesting to look at which countries are adopting the technologies, and which ones remain the most resistant. This chart shows “How Often People Use ChatGPT.”

    via visualcapitalist

    Today, in the US, fewer than 20% of citizens report using chatbots daily. Meanwhile, India, Pakistan, and Kenya all poll at over 25%. 

    At the lower end of the spectrum, countries like Chile, Argentina, Germany, Italy, and Australia all report daily chatbot use by fewer than 10% of the population. Japan has the lowest rate, with just 6% of people saying they use chatbots daily, and a notable 42% saying they hardly ever interact with the technology. These differences are probably due to factors such as cultural attitudes toward technology and how people report their own habits.

    In contrast, “weekly usage” rates are notably more consistent across different countries, suggesting broader but less frequent interaction. 

    Just as search engines, social networks, and smartphones each converged on a few dominant players, the chatbot landscape is likely to consolidate, offering a clearer and more streamlined experience for users. 

    As chatbots advance, their impact will depend not just on technological advancements, but also on how well they build trust, integrate seamlessly, and adjust to different cultural norms. The question still stands: which platform will become the go-to digital companion?

    Let’s turn this into a conversation. I’m curious about your favorite AI platforms and reasons why.

  • Emerging Markets: A 2019 Prediction, Revisited

    For decades, the United States has stood at the forefront of the global economic landscape. Beneath the surface, a power shift is reshaping the future faster than most imagined.

    Volatility and unpredictability, typically seen as risks, are actually catalysts for growth in emerging economies. This tension—between chaos and opportunity — underscores why linear forecasts often fail.

    Revisiting 2019’s Bold Prediction

    Back in 2019, the prospect of India surpassing the U.S. economy seemed far-fetched. Yet, only 6 years later, India’s meteoric rise is undeniable, with India ranking as the world’s fifth-largest economy.

    via visualcapitalist

    Economic scoreboards look nothing like they did in 2019 … some countries have soared, others stalled, and a few have leapfrogged expectations entirely. In 2019, the world watched as trade wars rattled markets and headlines predicted that the US-China rivalry would drive the global order. But beneath the noise, we were already seeing a new world order emerge. In 2019, Standard Chartered projected that by 2030, 7 of the world’s 10 largest economies would be “emerging markets.”

    Fast forward six years. The story is now unfolding in real time.

    Where the Predictions Landed — and Missed

    India stands out—it’s become the world’s fifth-largest economy and shows impressive GDP growth, fueled by a massive digital expansion.

    Meanwhile, Indonesia has continued its steady climb (and is much larger and more formidable than many Americans realize), Brazil has stabilized after a turbulent decade, and Turkey and Egypt have faced more mixed results due to inflation and currency crises—but they remain on growth trajectories that keep them relevant.

    Still, China and the U.S. are the two dominant powerhouses. However, the narrative has shifted: China’s growth is slowing, and India is increasingly seen as the next global growth engine. Meanwhile, Africa’s rapid population growth and urbanization signal its emergence as home to several future megacities. The point … the global balance of power is indeed shifting, just not as evenly as those early forecasts suggested.

    While 2019’s more sensational forecasts (such as Egypt’s predicted 583% growth) were overly optimistic, the core thesis — demographics and maturing economies reshaping global markets — has largely proved accurate.

    Emerging markets are growing rapidly. However, despite progress, many emerging markets face growing pains, especially as global debt levels rise and climate shocks intensify. Regardless, it’s clear that “emerging markets” have already arrived. 

    What’s Next for Emerging Markets?

    Looking forward, it’s worth watching countries that didn’t make those early lists but are now outperforming expectations.

    Vietnam has become a manufacturing powerhouse and a prime beneficiary of supply-chain shifts. Companies wanted a backup to China, so they picked Vietnam. Now, it’s making phones, clothes, and more—helping the country’s economy grow quickly.

    Gulf economies, such as those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are leveraging their energy wealth to diversify their strategies. The goal is to move beyond just oil. They’re building new cities, inviting tourists, and investing in clean energy, so their future isn’t just about pumping oil—but about new ideas and significant changes.

    Even smaller economies in Africa, such as Nigeria and Kenya, are experiencing digital and demographic tailwinds that could significantly reshape their trajectories. Young people are leapfrogging old industries and jumping straight into tech. With creative ideas and energy, they’re making apps and online businesses, turning into new world tech hotspots.

    Add in unpredictable forces … geopolitical realignments, AI-driven productivity, climate resilience, and energy transitions … and the map of global economic power could look even more surprising by 2030 than any chart we saw back in 2019.

    The next decade isn’t just about who ascends fastest — it’s about who can adapt and endure. In the age of disruption, resilience may be the new measure of power.

  • Is Luck Something You Create?

    This article explores the fine line between luck and skill in business, trading, and life. You’ll learn why success often comes from preparation and adaptability—not just fortunate timing—and discover actionable strategies for identifying and nurturing genuine skill in any competitive arena.

    Picture a trader making millions in a raging bull market. Are they a genius, or just riding a wave of market luck? Now, picture yourself in their shoes. How do you know if tomorrow’s market crash will expose a lack of skill or confirm your edge?

    Distinguishing luck from skill isn’t just a Wall Street problem—it’s the secret sauce behind enduring careers, resilient businesses, and long-term success stories everywhere.

    Introduction: The Illusion of Streaks

    Imagine achieving an unbroken streak of successes—so improbable that it seems almost magical. Was it raw talent, or was the universe simply smiling on you?

    It’s human nature to believe it was your skill.

    Now, imagine someone else achieved that streak. It is comforting to attribute some of that to luck.

    What about a series of coin flips that land on heads twenty-five times in a row? Was that lucky, or have you discovered a new law of probability?

    Easy, that was just luck.

    This highlights a common trap known as confirmation bias: when things go well, we tend to attribute our success to our skill; when they don’t, we blame it on bad luck. Recognizing this bias is essential if we want to improve; otherwise, we risk falling into blind spots that prevent us from learning.

    In 2016, I wrote an article about differentiating between luck and skill in trading. Those concepts seem even more relevant today as I spend more time talking with entrepreneurs and AI enthusiasts.

    The Psychology of Success: Luck, Skill, and the Illusion of Mastery

    Luck comes in many flavors. Most people prefer good luck to bad luck.

    Focusing on the good, there are many lucky individuals in the business world. Perhaps they made a good decision at the right time – and are now on top of the world. Luck isn’t a bad thing — but building your entire strategy around it is a risky bet for lasting success. Why? Because you might get lucky once, but it’s unlikely you’ll get lucky every time.

    As the saying goes, luck favors the prepared mind—especially those capable of discerning where skill ends and luck begins.

    The Coin Flipping Contest: A Case Study in Probability

    20250831 Coin FlipFirst, let’s examine luck a little bit. To do that, think about a nationwide coin-flipping contest. Initially, each citizen is paired up with another for a contest. The winner goes on to the next round. Think how many rounds you would need to win to be City Champion, State Champion, Regional Champion, etc. Ultimately, someone would have won many coin-flip contests to make it to the final rounds of the tournament. Assuming they didn’t cheat, they were lucky. Does the winner have an edge? If so, what could it be?

    Suppose you followed the contest from beginning to end. As you approached the Championship Round, can you imagine the Finalists doing articles or interviews about how their mindfulness practice gives them an edge … or, how the law of attraction was the secret…. or, how the power of prayer makes all the difference.

    Occam’s Razor often applies: the best explanation is usually the simplest—someone had to win, and this time, it was luck, not mastery.

    In any competition, someone will always win, but that doesn’t mean the winner is always the most skilled.

    Luck isn’t just in trading or tech. Think of sports — sometimes, a championship hinges on a referee’s call or an unexpected bounce, not just one team’s superior skill. In music, countless talented musicians remain undiscovered, while some viral videos catapult their creators into overnight stardom. That’s the unpredictable role of luck at work in every field.

    Warren Buffett once remarked: ‘It’s only when the tide goes out that you discover who’s been swimming naked.’ Success in a favorable market can look like skill — but only real skill endures when times get tough.

    Likewise, just because a product or business generates revenue doesn’t necessarily prove it has a competitive edge. Every day, countless new AI-based apps are released. Many make money, some even become popular, but how many of them will still be here 5 years from now? Often, the businesses that are doing the best aren’t actually the ones providing the best service; they’re the ones with the best marketing & the most luck. 

    Lessons from Dot-Coms and Startups

    Remember the dot-com era in the late ’90s? For every Amazon or Google that survived, hundreds like Pets.com and Webvan didn’t. Success often wasn’t about being the best; it was about timing, adaptability—and, sometimes, pure luck.

    Focusing solely on current profitability can mean you might have a genuine edge—or you might have simply experienced a streak of good luck. If it isn’t just a matter of winning, how do we determine if we’re skillful? In trading, we refer to this as “Alpha” — the measure of a strategy’s returns attributable to genuine skill, rather than market trends or lucky breaks. Thus, the search for alpha is the search for clues that help identify systems with an edge (or at least an edge in certain market conditions).

    Unfortunately, I cannot provide you with a single rule to follow in distinguishing between skill and luck. Still, it’s much easier to find the answer if you actively seek to differentiate between the two. Recognizing whether preparation or fortune played the bigger part requires conscious, continuous examination.

    The reality is that most situations aren’t as purely luck-based as a coin-flipping contest. Many people appear lucky because they put themselves in the right situations and did the gritty work behind the scenes to prepare themselves for opportunities. 

    Do You Really Have an Edge? Validation Matters

    That’s where skill (and the ability to filter out bad opportunities) comes in. 

    Internally, we’ve built validation protocols to help filter out systems that got lucky or those that cannot replicate their results on unseen data.

    It is exciting as we solve more of the bits and pieces of this puzzle.

    What we have learned is that one of the secrets to long-term success is (unsurprisingly) adaptability.

    What that looks like for us is a library of systems ready to respond to any market condition — and a focus on improving our ability to select the systems that are “in-phase dynamically”. The secret isn’t predicting the future, but responding faster — and more reliably — to changing environments.

    From a business perspective, this means being willing to adapt to and adopt new technologies without losing sight of a bigger ‘why,’ as we discussed in this article.

    A Practical Example

    When we first wrote about this, one of Capitalogix’s advisors wrote back to confirm their understanding of the coin-flipping analogy.

    The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 25 times in a row is roughly 1-in-33 million. So if we have 33 million flippers and 100 get 25 heads in a row, statistically that is very improbable.  We can deduce that group of 100 is a combination of some lucky flippers, but also that some have a "flipping edge."  We may not be able to say which is which, but as a group our 100 will still consistently provide an edge in future flip-offs.

    Well, that is correct. If we were developing coin-flipping agents, that would be as far as we could go. However, we are in luck because our trading “problem” has an extra dimension, which makes it possible to filter out some of the “lucky” trading systems.

    Determining Which are the Best Systems.

    There are several ways to determine whether a trading system has a persistent edge. For example, we can examine the market returns during the trading period and compare them with the trading results. This is significant because many systems have either a long or short bias. That means even if a system does not have an edge, it would be more likely to turn a profit when its bias aligns with the market. You can try to correct that bias using math and statistical magic to determine whether the system has a predictive edge. It Is a Lot Simpler Than It Sounds.

    Imagine a system that picks trades based on a roulette spin. Instead of numbers or colors, the wheel is filled with “Go Long” and “Go Short” selections. As long as the choices are balanced, the system is random. But what if the roulette wheel had more opportunities for “long” selections than “short” selections?

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    This random system would appear to be “in-phase” whenever the market is in an uptrend. But does it have an edge?

    One Way To Calculate Whether You Have An Edge.

    Let’s say that you test a particular trading system on hourly bars of the S&P 500 Index from January 2000 until today.

    1. The first thing you need is the total net profit of the system for all its trades.
    2. The second thing you need to calculate is the percentage of time spent long and short during the test period.
    3. Third, you need to generate a reasonably large population of entirely random entries and exits with the same percentage of long/short times as your back-tested results (this step can be repeated multiple times to create a range of results).
    4. Fourth, use statistical inference to calculate the average profit of these random entry tests for that same test period.
    5. Finally, subtract that amount from the total back-tested net profit from the first step.

    According to the law of large numbers, in the case of the “roulette” system illustrated above, correcting for bias this way, the P&L of random systems would end up close to zero … while systems with real predictive power would be left with significant residual profits after the bias correction. While the math isn’t complicated, the process is still challenging because it requires substantial resources to crunch that many numbers for hundreds of thousands of Bots. Luckily, RAM, CPU cycles, and disk space continue to become cheaper and more powerful.

    If your success can’t be replicated with new data, it may have been luck all along.

    Conclusion: Tipping the Odds In Your Favor

    Anyone can tally a win-loss column; far fewer can tell whether it was smarts, skill, or serendipity that made the difference. This is where rigorous analysis becomes invaluable.

    Obviously, luck and skill affect every aspect of experience (from adopting technology, starting a business, transitioning from a product-based to a platform-based business model, or countless other scenarios).

    In most situations, the secret is to determine what data is relevant to your industry, as well as what data you’re creating. Figure out how to analyze it. Figure out how to do that consistently, autonomously, and efficiently. Then … test.

    It’s not sexy, and it’s not complicated.

    We live in a ready, fire, aim era. The speed of innovation is staggering, and the capital and energy required to create an app or start a business are at an all-time low. A bias for action is powerful.

    Luck and a bias for action will take you further than most – but it still won’t take you far enough.

    If you want to explore this topic further, consider reading “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb or “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. Both offer deeper insights into the psychology of luck and skill in markets and life.

    Staying Honest

    To conclude, I’ll leave you with a question…

    If you’re reading this, you’ve almost certainly been lucky and skillful. Take a minute to list at least one thing you attribute to luck — and one to skill — in your career and life. With that in mind, what could you do differently in the future to tip the odds in your favor?

    Try this, too: Next time you celebrate a big win, ask: Did I make my own luck, or did I simply wait for it to strike? In the end, the real edge belongs to those who learn to prepare, adapt — and still stay humble enough to know when fortune lent a hand.

  • A Look At The $127 Trillion Global Stock Market

    The world’s stock markets are more intertwined and unpredictable than ever. As we step into 2025, the landscape is dominated by record highs, emerging uncertainties, and shifting regional dynamics. What forces are redrawing the map—and how should forward-looking investors respond?

    Here is a look at global stock markets. Worldwide, they represented $127 trillion in value in 2024, with U.S. markets accounting for nearly half of that amount. 

     

    20250831 Global-Stock-Market_VC_Terzo_Main

    via visualcapitalist

    Global Market Snapshot

    For comparison, the global market has grown over 14% since 2023, when its value was approximately $111 trillion.

    U.S. Dominance vs. Global Opportunity. While U.S. markets account for nearly half of the global value, it’s striking how far behind China and the EU lag. It is worth examining why … and what may lie ahead.

    Regional Comparisons

    Let’s consider how other major regions are faring.

    China’s stock market growth remains sluggish, held back by cautious consumers and the unpredictability of shifting government policies. The EU’s performance declined slightly in 2024, and faces headwinds from high interest rates and shifting energy dynamics. Meanwhile, emerging markets show wide variation—technology-driven countries outperform, while others lag due to policy or global uncertainty. 

    Here is a slightly deeper look at each.

    China: Stimulus and Uncertainty. China’s government is attempting to stimulate its economy by reducing interest rates, repurchasing stocks, and increasing spending. That sounds positive, but people are still spending less, houses aren’t selling well, and the government often changes rules unexpectedly. Most regular Chinese don’t own stocks. For global investors, China is an intriguing yet risky market — one where outside forces frequently cause sudden shifts.

    Europe: Value Amid Headwinds. Europe’s economy is diverse—its markets are a mix of banks, factories, and some technology. Wages are rising, and governments are spending. Sounds positive, but factors such as higher interest rates and global events continue to hinder progress. As a result, European stocks are generally cheaper than U.S. stocks, almost like a “value menu.” For investors, Europe remains a "safe harbor" steady option that can help balance out a portfolio, but don’t expect fireworks unless a few key factors break in their favor.

    Emerging Markets: Technology’s Outliers. Meanwhile, emerging markets are more complex and susceptible to the influence of changing factors. Some countries, such as Taiwan and South Korea, are thriving thanks to strong technology growth. Others, such as Russia and Brazil, face challenges due to limited investment and instability. These markets are volatile, offering both high risk and potentially high reward..

    Takeaways for Investors

    The global market’s leadership is not set in stone; it is a rolling contest shaped by policy, innovation, and disruption. For investors and strategists, now is the time to reexamine assumptions, rebalance risks, and prepare for whatever comes next. In this era of constant change, adaptability—not allegiance—will be the source of enduring advantage.

    Savvy investors spread their bets, recognizing that overconcentration in any single market can amplify both gains and risks.

    For all the varied fears in Americans’ minds, U.S. dominance is driven not only by the strength of tech giants, but also by resilient consumer sectors and deep capital markets that set global standards. 

    As a result, America’s share of the global market increased approximately 7% over the past year, while China’s share has remained stable, and the EU’s share has declined slightly. 

    The good news for U.S investors is that global market capitalization is rising, and so is our share of it.

    It’s easy to find reasons to be afraid or tentative … but it’s just as easy to find reasons to take confident action.

    Looking ahead, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and new technology breakthroughs could all shift the balance of global market leadership. So could the growth of digital assets. Investors must consider what will happen next if these trends continue (or suddenly reverse).

    Policy shifts in China or the EU could spark sudden capital flows, triggering domino effects that shape the next phase of market evolution.

    Market leadership can change in an instant. In this climate, agility wins. Prepare, diversify, and stay alert—because in the world of investing, standing still is the biggest risk of all.

    History has shown that the most prosperous periods are those that encourage creative destruction and reinvention.

    You can't predict the future, but you can prepare for it.

  • Foreign Direct Investments

    Against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, supply chain upheaval, and rapid technological transformation, foreign direct investment remains a bellwether of global confidence and strategic priorities.

    Looking back to 2024, the patterns of FDI offer a window into what the world’s investors value most—and what new risks and opportunities are on the horizon.

    In a rapidly shifting global landscape, investors are constantly on the hunt for both opportunity and resilience. Which sectors and regions captured the lion’s share of foreign direct investment in 2024—and what fueled these evolving priorities?

    The Global State of FDI in 2024

    Visual Capitalist created an infographic that shows Foreign Investors allocated more than $1 trillion across the top 10 global sectors in 2024, highlighting the scope and realignment of worldwide capital movements.

     

    This infographic visualizes the top 10 sectors for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, based on global data for over 17,000 FDI projects.

    via visualcapitalist

    Sector Standouts: Winners and Surprises

    Now let’s zoom into specific industries.

    Renewable energy topped the list, drawing $270.1 billion in FDI. Even so, renewable energy FDI declined — mainly due to rising material costs, tougher regulations, and delayed projects. Despite these setbacks, long-term prospects in renewables are robust.

    Perhaps the most surprising winner of 2024, the communications sector not only rebounded but grew by an astonishing 84%, far outpacing previous years. This likely reflects accelerated 5G rollouts and infrastructure expansions in both developed and emerging markets.

    Semiconductors followed closely, likely reflecting the growing infrastructure requirements of global reliance on AI.

    Notably, FDI in real estate increased despite a critical labor shortage, sparking questions about how investment is responding to workforce constraints.

    Meanwhile, traditional manufacturing showed minimal growth, as investors appear wary of ongoing supply chain disruptions and increasing automation across the industry.

    Regional Focus: Asia’s Rise & India’s Transformation

    Regionally, the FDI tide was far from even. Asia emerged as the dominant destination for FDI. While India, alone, attracted investment across more than 1,000 distinct projects, driven by robust economic reforms and a burgeoning market.

    What’s Next? 

    FDI patterns are not static reflections but dynamic forecasts of the next big global moves. Consequently, geopolitics and regulatory shifts impact FDI as well.

    As global investment patterns continue to evolve, the next wave of foreign direct investment will likely redefine which strategies (and which regions) lead. Will emerging trends hold, or will new surprises shift the map again next year?”

    Where would you bet global capital will go next?

  • The History of Technology …

    We are living through the fastest period of technological change in history — a fact that demands not just awareness, but active engagement. Here’s how to recognize this shift, and what you can do to succeed in it.

    Our ancestors survived by thinking locally and linearly. Yet today, this mindset often leaves us struggling to anticipate the sweeping, unpredictable effects of technology.

    To predict the future of technology, you must understand where we are and where we are headed … but it also helps to recognize how far we’ve come—and how quickly things are now accelerating.

    A Timeline of Human Innovation – From Stone Tools to AI

    Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation. It shows how fast we are moving by telling the story with milestones.

     Longterm-timeline-of-technology

    Max Roser via ourworldindata

    Innovation isn’t only driven by scientists. It’s driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality. 

    To see just how far we’ve come — and how quickly things now change — let’s look at some milestones.

    3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later, they harnessed fire. Forty-three thousand years ago (almost a million years later), we developed the first instrument, a flute. 

    Why Speed Matters

    The innovations we just discussed happened over an astonishing expanse of time. Compare that to this: In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight … and just 66 years later, we were on the moon. That’s less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet our knowledge, technologies, and capabilities are expanding exponentially. 

    Acceleration Is The New Normal

    Technology was like a snowball gathering speed, but it’s become an avalanche—hurtling forward, accelerated by AI. Here are some fun facts to back that up.

    • ChatGPT’s Explosive Growth: In 2025, OpenAI’s ChatGPT will hit 700 million weekly active users—a fourfold increase over the previous year. In its first year, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users in just two months, a milestone that took Instagram 2.5 years.

     

    Yesterday’s stable footing guarantees nothing; you must constantly adjust or get swept away.

    While AI dominates headlines, the same story of acceleration is unfolding in fields like biotechnology, climate tech, and robotics. It’s happening everywhere all at once. From nanotechnologies to longevity and age reversal, and from construction to space exploration … exponential change is becoming a constant.

    Turning Information into Actions – What To Do Now

    Though I lead an AI company, I’m not an engineer or a data scientist — I am a strategist. My role is to envision bigger futures, communicate them clearly, and leverage tools that free me to create greater value. Ultimately, that’s going to become everybody’s job.

    I don’t believe that AI will replace people like us quickly, but common sense tells us that people who use AI more effectively might replace us faster than we’d like.

    Start by experimenting with new AI tools. When was the last time you tried a new tool or technology? Even though our company works on AI every day, I’ve challenged myself to continually expand my ability to use AI to create the things I want.

    You’ll probably find that the things you want most are just outside your current comfort zone — or you’d already have them.

    The next level of impact and value lies just beyond your current habits—comfort is the enemy of reinvention.

    A good start is to think about what routine task you could automate next week.

    Leaders must move from certainty-seeking to rapid experimentation. Encourage nimble, high-frequency experimentation with emerging tech.

    Focus on skillsets that complement, not compete with, automation. And vice versa, focus on automation that complements (rather than competes with) unique abilities.

    Share your learnings with your team or community. Set the expectation of progress, and make regular sharing and reporting part of your process. Reward the sharing of learnings over the accumulation of dead knowledge.

    Prepare teams not only technologically, but culturally and psychologically, for relentless reinvention.

    Brene Brown, a noted leadership expert, says, “Vulnerability is the birthplace of innovation, creativity, and change.”

    Don’t let perfectionism hold you back. You don’t need to know every destination before boarding the train; what matters is that you get on. Waiting too long is no longer safe—the train is leaving, and the cost of inaction is climbing.

    Success now means hopping on and adapting while in motion—not waiting for all the answers.

    Onwards!

  • Can Humans Predict The Future?

    New technologies fascinate me … As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

    Ray Kurzweil (who is a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, where the technological advancements experienced in the 21st century will be vastly more significant and disruptive than those in previous centuries. Kurzeil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000."

    However, there is a tension between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” There is a risk that “continuous forward motion” sometimes leads to dead ends and that speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous. This is true in part because technology adoption is often more about human nature than the absolute value of technology. 

    This post is about embracing the paradox of accepting both the value of vision and the discipline of small, progressive steps.

    Dreaming vs. Doing

    Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.

    To get us started, here is a video, put together by Second Thought, that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

     

    via Second Thought

    The Fascination With and Challenges of Prediction

    It’s interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

    In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

    Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.” 

    Prophecy vs. Navigation

    While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.

    Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

    I’ll say it a different way … It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.

    Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty—it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.

    With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. There are times when continuous course-correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift. 

    While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

    The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

     

    via YouTube

    The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.

    There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make decisions, and take action.

    Even if the path ahead is unsure, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the next step. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

    In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map

    The distant future may be fuzzy, but it’s our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—that tips the odds in our favor.

    Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.

    Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.

    Remember, there is always a best next step.

    Onwards!

  • The Growth of U.S. Businesses Over the Last 5 Years …

    Over the past five years, U.S. businesses have grown a lot, thanks in large part to recent advances in exponential technologies. At first glance, it looks like a simple win: more companies, more jobs, better tech. But it’s worth a closer look. 
     
    It’s easy to get lost in how fast AI is growing. Being so close to it can lead to myopia. For a broader picture, VisualCapitalist put together an infographic on the growth of various industries over the last 5 years. 

     

    via visualcapitalist

    Business creation has grown almost 20% over the last five years, with small businesses generating about 60% of new jobs in America. However, a look at the data shows a small number of firms drive most of that growth. 

    According to J.P. Morgan, the information sector posted the strongest five‑year growth gains (+58%), followed by professional and business services (+32%) and education and health services (+25%).

    It’s not surprising that the information business grew fastest, given the catalyst that AI and automation offer, and the growing awareness that data is increasingly a valuable asset.

    AI today reminds me a lot of the Internet boom in the early 2000s. Back then, everyone focused on the technology, and it seemed like a separate tech domain. But now, almost every company relies on that technology as infrastructure, making it part of the playing field. I believe AI will become so widespread that, for most businesses, it will simply be part of the landscape.

    The story isn’t just about how fast technology moves; it’s about how we steer it.

    For example, AI and healthcare are a natural pair with transformative potential. By making diagnostic procedures faster, predicting patient outcomes, and customizing treatment plans, AI is poised to revolutionize how we treat or cure diseases and also how we improve longevity and regenerative medicine results. Interest and assets are sure to flow into that sector.

    However, no matter where you look, the growing capabilities and tech infrastructure have profound implications for growth and transformation.

    I’m curious which sectors you expect to grow fastest going forward?

    As always … Onwards!