A few years ago, I brought my cousin, Matt Pinsker, an expert in Civil War history and Abraham Lincoln, to speak to an exclusive mastermind. He did an outstanding job of relating Lincoln’s letters and history to the entrepreneurial mindset. As a result, he also did a podcast with me, Dan Sullivan, and Steven Krein on the ultimate entrepreneurial president. Steven Krein is also my cousin, so it was a family affair.
Recently, he released a book called Boss Lincoln, exploring Lincoln’s expertise in party politics and his skillful navigation of treacherous partisan crosscurrents, helping build the Republican Party into a viable force.
Not to mention, undertaking such actions with emancipation and the war’s outcome at stake, while facing severe criticism from all directions.
Although Lincoln is one of the most celebrated Presidents in history, he faced immense challenges during his time. In private, he was clever and persistent, able to use skillful manipulation, straightforward intimidation, or thoughtful debate as required to accomplish his goals.
Lessons from his presidency are still incredibly relevant today (if not more so).
But he’s not the only cousin who has recently released a book.
Photos of my Cousins Matt and Beth, with their books and a brief description of the books
Don’t Wait. Plan Ahead.
Beth is a financial-planning columnist at MarketWatch and has been a Certified Financial Planner™ since 2018. She won a SABEW Best in Business award in 2023 for commentary for a series of columns about caring for her mother, which she turned into the premise for this book.
It includes some incredible anecdotes about their parents, as well as personal stories from many children and spouses of aging parents. More importantly, it’s a powerful handbook for everything you need to know about the complex world of end-of-life financial planning.
Even though I grew up with them, I still learned things about the family I didn’t already know.
And, if you want to listen to the podcast episode with Matt & Steven Krein, you can do so here:
We talk about revolutions, technology, future-orientation, and more. It’s a great episode, and worth listening to for entrepreneurs, history buffs, and anyone looking to thrive in a changing world.
As we approach year-end, my thoughts have been on finishing strong and planning for a great 2026.
Last week, we looked at a prompt that created a new keystone habit. This week, I’m sharing another simple prompt that I found valuable and insightful. It’s designed to review your conversation history, conduct a mini-assessment, and give you a glimpse into your blind spot.
Like last week’s prompt, as written, it’s somewhat generic and might hallucinate a little if it doesn’t have enough data. That’s easy to fix by improving the prompt. But for the purposes of getting started, this is good enough.
Here is the base prompt to try in your primary AI tool.
“From all of our interactions, what is one thing that you can tell me about myself that I may not know about myself?”
Sometimes, less is more.
There are lots of ways to use something like this. For example, you can tell it to be “brutally honest” or to “roast you” so that you hear it in humorous terms. With that in mind, here are a bunch of copy/paste prompt variants that produce the same kind of “surprising but grounded” self-insight, each from a different angle.
Pattern + Blind Spot Variants
Strength-with-a-Shadow
From our interactions, name one strengthI clearly have and the most likely downsideof that strength when overused. Give 2 examples from our chats and 1 practical guardrail.
Default Operating System
What is my “default mode” behavior, under pressure, based on our interactions? What does it protect me from, and what does it cost me?
Hidden Constraint
Identify one hidden assumption I seem to carry. Explain how it helps me, how it limits me, and one experiment to test it.
Blind Spot That Looks Like a Virtue
What’s a behavior of mine that most people would praise, but that could quietly create problems? Be specific and non-psychological.
Decision-making + execution variants
Where I Over-Engineer
Where do I tend to add unnecessary complexity? Give one example pattern, why I do it, and a “2-step simplification rule” I can apply.
Where I Under-Commit
Based on our interactions, where might I stay in analysis longer than needed? Give a “commitment trigger” and a script for making the decision.
One Question I Avoid
What is one question I rarely ask, but should, given my goals? Provide the exact wording and when to use it.
My “Next Constraint”
If I had to improve only one constraint in my system (time, focus, delegation, communication, risk), which one is highest leverage and why?
Communication + Relationships Variants
How I’m Experienced by Others
Based on my writing and requests, how might teammates/investors experience me on a good day vs a stressed day? Give 3 traits each and 1 calibration move.
Trust Friction
Identify one way my communication style could unintentionally reduce trust or clarity. Give a rewrite pattern I can apply.
Authority vs Warmth Dial
Where do I sit on the authority↔warmth spectrum in my messages? What’s the risk at my current setting, and how do I adjust without becoming fake?
Energy + Focus Variants
My Energy Signature
Infer my likely “energy curve” and where I do my best thinking. Give a schedule template that matches it and one rule for protecting it.
My Procrastination Costume
What form of “productive procrastination” do I use (based on our chats)? Give a 60-second interrupt and a 10-minute re-entry plan.
What values do my patterns suggest (not what I claim)? Give 3 values, the evidence, and one way each can be expressed more cleanly.
My Edge
What’s one capability I’m unusually strong at that I might be underpricing? Give one way to productize it and one way to teach it.
Tighter “One Thing” Variants
One Sentence, Then Proof
Tell me one thing about myself I might not know in a single sentence. Then justify it with 3 specific signals from our interactions and 1 counter-signal.
If-Then Insight
If I keep doing X, then Y will happen (good and bad). Identify X and Y from our interactions, and give one small change.
The Uncomfortable Gift
Give me one insight that’s slightly uncomfortable but genuinely helpful. Be kind, direct, and practical. End with one question for me.
Hopefully, you found something that helped you find what you were looking for.
It’s a good reminder that AI is not supposed to replace you … It’s supposed to amplify the best parts of you.
A lot of these exercises and thought patterns are based on activities I used to do in my own planning, or with trusted advisors. As I use AI more in my everyday life, it has collected enough data to be a powerful analysis tool (and that is a scary reminder of how much it knows and remembers).
I believe in examining your thinking – and using those insights to choose smarter and better actions. Prompts like this are a powerful tool for building that habit … but only if you remember that it is still you choosing and acting!
Don’t outsource what makes you human to the machines … but that doesn’t mean you can’t use a helping hand.
It’s that time of year again. Holidays are upon us. Wow, how time flies!
Tonight was the first night of Hanukkah, which is the Jewish festival of lights. This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Hanukkah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.
That’s a long time, right?! Especially in some families.
As a gift to all of you, here is “The Hanukkah Song,” performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live. It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)
Here is the video. And, if you’re feeling left out, here’s Adam Sandler’s Christmas Song.
My oldest son will be flying in with his wife and young daughter. My youngest son will also join us, as will my ex-wife and her boyfriend. Family takes many forms. Some of it you’re born into, some you choose.
The holiday is an opportunity to be around people who matter and to spend some time thinking about and expressing what you’re thankful for.
Obviously, Thanksgiving is a reminder to be grateful for the blessings in your life – both big and small. But it’s also a time to be thankful for the challenges in your life, and the opportunities for growth that they bring.
“So Tell Me What You Want, What You Really Really Want”
Often, when I choose to think about what I want, the first thing I think of is what I don’t want. Similarly, when I think about what’s going well (or something worthy of being thankful for), I often first think about what has been difficult or isn’t above minimum standards yet. Some things change quickly. Apparently, human nature isn’t one of them.
The Gift of Challenges
Can discomfort and challenge be genuine gifts? I think so! Challenges are often hidden gold mines. Instead of thinking about them as obstacles for you, recognize that getting past them creates new barriers for competitors. In other words, figuring out a strategy to achieve these lofty goals creates a new status quo and a sustainable competitive advantage.
At Capitalogix, we often talk about “finding a way,” “creating breakthroughs,” and “setting new standards.” The reason is that most of the things an innovator wants are just beyond their current capabilities (otherwise, they’d already have them).
Whether you’re leading a team, nurturing a family, or simply navigating life’s daily challenges, choosing gratitude (especially during the tough moments) can forge resilience and the ability to be comfortable with being uncomfortable.
This brings me to an important principle — the Stockdale Paradox — which balances optimism with realism. It is named after Admiral James Stockdale, the most senior naval officer held captive during the Vietnam War. Stockdale noted that the prisoners who fared worst were often the “optimists” who kept setting near‑term deadlines like “we’ll be out by Christmas,” then broke psychologically each time those hopeful timelines passed unmet. Their short‑term, date‑specific optimism couldn’t survive repeated disappointment. Stockdale’s perspective assumed it might take a very long time and could be extremely bad before it got better. Expect the worst and prepare for the best. Said differently, try to balance unwavering faith in eventual success with the discipline to confront harsh realities.
And we all face harsh realities.
Having “no problems” either means you’re blind to your flaws or aren’t playing a big enough game (which is a problem in itself).
So, I am thankful for my health, my family and friends, and the quality of my life. But I am also thankful for the stress, the challenges, and the opportunity to face a continually better class of challenges that forge a path to a better baseline and a bigger future.
I’m reminded of a poem I last shared over 10 years ago.
Be Thankful
Be thankful that you don’t already have everything you desire. If you did, what would there be to look forward to?
Be thankful when you don’t know something, for it gives you the opportunity to learn.
Be thankful for the difficult times. During those times, you grow.
Be thankful for your limitations, because they give you opportunities for improvement.
Be thankful for each new challenge, because it will build your strength and character.
Be thankful for your mistakes. They will teach you valuable lessons.
Be thankful when you’re tired and weary, because it means you’ve made a difference.
It’s easy to be thankful for the good things. A life of rich fulfillment comes to those who are also thankful for the setbacks.
Gratitude can turn a negative into a positive. Find a way to be thankful for your troubles, and they can become your blessings.
As most of you know, my son Zach and I co-write this newsletter.
Recently, while talking about articles, Zach opened up about what’s been going on in his life and how it’s affected him. I thought his story would make a great post, so I asked him to share his thoughts. Looking back, it’s easy to relate to where he’s at … Interesting how that happens.
Here it is:
If you asked me to describe myself, rugby would be one of the first words out of my mouth. Honestly, if you asked me about almost anything, I’d probably find a way to sneak in a rugby reference. More than my time in the gym, my love of books, or my penchant for word games, rugby has always been the anchor of my identity.
But life has layers. I’m now a 32-year-old husband, three ACL tears deep, working in the family business, and serving as President of the Dallas Harlequins — my rugby club. And while I still lace up, I know my time on the field is running short. Priorities change, bodies break down, and after 17 years of rugby, mine has plenty of miles on it.
I actually thought I was done at 28. My body wouldn’t bounce back anymore. I’d wake up after practices or games barely able to walk. I had one more big tournament, where I was going to represent the USA, so I decided to fight through the pain, train for the following six months, and let that be my swan song.
Then I bought a Normatec, started drinking a protein shake after practice, and (shocker) started stretching more. Suddenly, I was young again.
Sure, kids learn to stretch in elementary school, but the Getsons have always been slow learners.
Since then, I’ve only gotten better. I’m running harder, tackling more, and understanding the game at a deeper level. My speed isn’t what it was at 21, and I’m definitely not the indestructible college kid I once thought I was. But I’m playing well, and not only are my coaches and teammates noticing, but even my competition is noticing. This past season, I was team MVP, “man of the tournament” at a 7s event, and earned another shot to represent the USA. My coach (who’s been with me since 2019) called it my best season yet.
Still, the signs are there. Recovery is slower, random injuries creep in (yes, even from sleeping wrong), and I know I’m gambling with my body. I’ve been here before: in 2015, fresh out of college, I tore my ACL for the third time while representing the USA in Chile. I “retired,” and it nearly broke me. I had to rebuild my sense of self without rugby, and by the time I returned in 2019, I thought I’d made peace with the idea of walking away.
But now that the day is actually approaching, it stings again. I lost rugby once — and it feels strange to know I’ll lose it again, this time for good. I’ll still be President, I’ll still have my team, and rugby will always be part of me. But I can feel the shift coming, and I know soon enough, these won’t be moments I’m living, but memories I carry.
Are you ever truly ready?
I have to remind myself that life is a gift, aging is a gift, and so is change. Rugby may be slipping away, but there are plenty of other mountains to climb. I might not compete in the same way, but that doesn’t mean I’ll stop being a competitor.
At the core, rugby wasn’t just about the sport — it was about pushing myself, playing through pain, and trying to outdo the person next to me. I’d love to say my only competition is with myself, but let’s be honest, I’m not that mature.
The truth is, I can still channel that drive anywhere: in the gym, at work, in writing, in my marriage, and in the everyday choices that make up my life. I can still choose to be better every day.
Hopefully that’s enough!
Watching Zach reflect on rugby reminds me that the lessons we learn in one arena often carry over to every part of life. The field may change, but the drive, discipline, and the will to turn possibility into reality remain — and those are the qualities that matter most. May your best thoughts become things.
The World seems very “Us” versus “Them”… But are we really that different?
The six largest religions in the world are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Sikhism.
If you stripped away doctrine, what patterns might emerge in the world’s great sacred texts?
Similarity in Diversity.
We often think about the differences between religions. However, a deep review of their sacred texts shows striking similarities (and may be indications of a more integral “truth”).
Below is a word cloud for each of those religions based on their primary religious text. A word cloud is a visual map of language where the size and boldness of a word reflect its frequency in the text. In this case, the image spotlights the most frequent words across different religious texts (e.g., Jewish Bible, Christian New Testament, Quran, Hindu Vedas, Buddhist Tripitaka, Sikh Guru Granth Sahib).
Each panel highlights high-frequency terms like Lord, God, man, people, Israel, Indra, Agni, Allah, fortunate, Guru, etc., with the most frequently used words appearing larger and bolder. A visualization, like this, makes it easy to identify the recurring themes or focal points of each tradition.
So, here is a closer look at what a word cloud of the world’s religions reveals if we strip away doctrine and focus only on frequency.
On one level, this post explores both the similarities and limits of religious texts via word clouds.
As historian Yuval Harari notes, “Humans think in terms of stories, not statistics.” Those word clouds are the beginnings of narratives that go beyond the numbers. For example, shared words don’t mean shared values. The word ‘love’ in one tradition may imply obedience, while in another it means self-transcendence.
The Power and Pitfalls of Translation
Likewise, translating sacred texts into English makes them more accessible, but can distort meaning and nuance. As an illustration, if you noticed the name “Keith” at the bottom of the Hinduism word cloud, it’s because that was the translator’s name. You might also have seen the word “car” in the Hinduism cloud, that is not an anachronism or prophecy… it is just another old-fashioned word for “chariot”.
It’s also worth acknowledging that this word cloud is from the English translations, so some words that may mean slightly different things in other languages can be all translated to one word in English. For example, it’s very common in Biblical Hebrew to see different words translated into the same English word. Examples include Khata, Avon, and Pesha – three different “ways of committing a wrong” that may all be translated to the same English word.
Distortions like these occur across many texts and cultures. In other words, similarities in word usage do not always reflect shared values. Recognizing this helps us navigate between the boundaries of certainty and uncertainty.
This brings to mind an ancient parable …
The Parable of Perspectives – Lessons from the Elephant
I’ve always loved the parable of the blind men and the elephant. While there are many versions, here’s broadly how it goes:
A group of blind men heard that a strange animal, called an elephant, had been brought to the town, but none of them were aware of its shape and form. Out of curiosity, they said: "We must inspect and know it by touch, of which we are capable". So, they sought it out, and when they found it they groped about it. The first person, whose hand landed on the trunk, said, "This being is like a thick snake". For another one whose hand reached its ear, it seemed like a kind of fan. As for another person, whose hand was upon its leg, said, the elephant is a pillar like a tree-trunk. The blind man who placed his hand upon its side said the elephant, "is a wall". Another who felt its tail, described it as a rope. The last felt its tusk, stating the elephant is that which is hard, smooth and like a spear.
This parable highlights that even when everyone is “blind” to the whole truth, each perspective still holds real insight. Recognizing that partial views are still valuable can drive innovative, integrative thinking.
The blind men and the elephant parable also reminds us of the limitations of individual perspectives and the value of integrating multiple viewpoints. Interestingly, that integration is one of the things large language models are best at … and helping humans access a perspective of perspectives might be a step towards enlightenment.
Future societies may see it as obvious that synthesizing perspectives (religious, cultural, strategic) can be done by advanced AI at scale, transforming how we resolve complex disputes.
Hope that helps.
Oh, and as a thought experiment … What would the word cloud of your own guiding beliefs look like?
I have a poster hanging in my office that says: “Artificial Intelligence is cool … Artificial Stupidity is scary.”
The point is that we like the idea of automation and real-time decision-making, but only if the answers are correct.
Speed amplifies truth and error. AI makes you smarter faster—or wrong at scale. Sometimes, the systems we build to make better decisions also multiply our mistakes. Several core tensions create that paradox.
Velocity vs. Veracity: Pressure to move fast conflicts with the need to verify causal logic, not just correlation.
Persuasion vs. Truth-Seeking: Organizations reward confidence and narrative; reality rewards calibration and evidence.
Automation vs. Accountability: As decisions become machine-mediated, ownership blurs—who is responsible when logic fails and who is supposed to catch the error?
Simplicity vs. Completeness: Leaders want short answers; complex realities resist neat categories and invite fallacies.
The problem isn’t just with automation. I’ve come to understand that an answer is not always THE answer. Consequently, part of a robust decision-making process is to figure out different ways of coming up with an answer … and then figuring out which of those serves your purposes best.
That distinction is essential in automation and designing agentic processes, but it’s also important to think about that as we operate on a day-to-day basis.
That’s the point of today’s post. It’s about some of the common logical errors that prevent us from getting better results.
Several times this week, I used a simple framework that says if the outcome isn’t right, start by looking at the people, the process, and the information. Meaning, when troubleshooting outcomes, investigate whether you are using the right resource, the best method, and whether you have enough complete and accurate information to make an informed decision.
Because AI is an amplifier of existing decision quality, it is also a good practice to add a “precision gate” before automation: meaning, don’t automate a process until you can articulate the decision criteria, known error modes, and the top 3 fallacies likely to occur in that context.
Understanding is often more complicated than it seems.
Richard Feynman, a renowned physicist, was also well known for making complex things simple. He believed that if you couldn’t explain something simply, you didn’t truly understand it yourself. He stressed that it’s crucial to be honest with oneself, as self-deception is a common pitfall that hinders genuine understanding. Feynman said: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”
So, before you automate something, state the rule in plain words. Then list the top three ways it could fool you. If you can’t explain the rule, don’t automate it.
Likewise, with ideas and beliefs, ask yourself, “What would prove me wrong?”
With that in mind, here is a quick primer on logical fallacies.
A logical fallacy is a flaw in reasoning. In other words, logical fallacies are like tricks or illusions of thought. As you might suspect, politicians and the media often rely on them. Recently, we discussed the Dunning-Kruger Effect … but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
It is fun to identify which of these certain people (including yourself) use when arguing, deciding, or otherwise pontificating. To help, here is a short list of TWENTY LOGICAL FALLACIES:
They fall into three main types: Distraction (10), Ambiguity (5), and Form (5).
A. Fallacies of Distraction
1. Ad baculum (Veiled threat): "to the stick": DEF.- threatening an opponent if they don’t agree with you; EX.- "If you don’t agree with me you’ll get hurt!"
2. Ad hominem (Name-calling; Poisoning the well): "to the man": DEF.- attacking a person’s habits, personality, morality or character; EX.- "His argument must be false because he swears and has bad breath."
3. Ad ignorantium (Appeal to ignorance): DEF.- arguing that if something hasn’t been proved false, then it must be true; EX.- "U.F.Os must exist, because no one can prove that they don’t."
4. Ad populum: "To the people; To the masses": DEF.- appealing to emotions and/or prejudices; EX.- "Everyone else thinks so, so it must be true."
5. Bulverism: (C.S. Lewis’ imaginary character, Ezekiel Bulver) DEF.- attacking a person’s identity/race/gender/religion; EX.- "You think that because you’re a (man/woman/Black/White/Catholic/Baptist, etc.)"
6. Chronological Snobbery DEF.- appealing to the age of something as proof of its truth or validity; EX.-"Voodoo magic must work because it’s such an old practice;" "Super-Glue must be a good product because it’s so new."
7. Ipse dixit: "He said it himself": DEF.- appealing to an illegitimate authority; EX.- "It must be true, because (so and so) said so."
8. Red Herring (Changing the subject): DEF.- diverting attention; changing the subject to avoid the point of the argument; EX.- "I can’t be guilty of cheating. Look how many people like me!"
9. Straw Man: DEF.- setting up a false image of the opponent's argument; exaggerating or simplifying the argument and refuting that weakened form of the argument; EX.- "Einstein's theory must be false! It makes everything relative–even truth!"
10. Tu quoque: "You also" DEF.- defending yourself by attacking the opponent; EX.- "Who are you to condemn me! You do it too!"
B. Fallacies of Ambiguity
1. Accent: DEF.- confusing the argument by changing the emphasis in the sentence; EX.- "YOU shouldn’t steal" (but it’s okay if SOMEONE ELSE does); "You shouldn’t STEAL" (but it’s okay to LIE once in a while); "You SHOULDN’T steal (but sometimes you HAVE TO) ."
2. Amphiboly: [Greek: "to throw both ways"] DEF.- confusing an argument by the grammar of the sentence; EX.- "Croesus, you will destroy a great kingdom!" (your own!)
3. Composition: DEF.- assuming that what is true of the parts must be true of the whole; EX.- "Chlorine is a poison; sodium is a poison; so NaCl must be a poison too;" "Micro-evolution is true [change within species]; so macro-evolution must be true too [change between species]."
4. Division: DEF.- assuming that what is true of whole must be true of the parts; EX.- "The Lakers are a great team, so every player must be great too."
5. Equivocation: DEF.- confusing the argument by using words with more than one definition; EX.- "You are really hot on the computer, so you’d better go cool off."
C. Fallacies of Form
1. Apriorism (Hasty generalization): DEF.- leaping from one experience to a general conclusion; EX.- "Willy was rude to me. Boys are so mean!"
2. Complex question (Loaded question): DEF.- framing the question so as to force a single answer; EX.- "Have you stopped beating your wife yet?"
3. Either/or (False dilemma): DEF.- limiting the possible answers to only two; oversimplification; EX.- "If you think that, you must be either stupid or half-asleep."
4. Petitio principii (Begging the question; Circular reasoning): DEF.- assuming what must be proven; EX.- "Rock music is better than classical music because classical music is not as good."
5. Post hoc ergo propter hoc (False cause): "after this, therefore because of this;" DEF.- assuming that a temporal sequence proves a causal relationship; EX.- "I saw a great movie before my test; that must be why I did so well."
I like reading lists like that … but how can you use the insights? Here is an idea: pair each fallacy with a “counter-check” question. For example, for Red Herring: “Did we change the topic because the original claim was uncomfortable, or because new data was material?”
For more on that, here is a fun and informative infographic by The School of Thought.
Despite his great writing and its complexities, he was able to simplify his stories into a few basic narrative shapes.
Here is a graphic that explains the concept.
Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories. You can grasp the basic concepts within the first 7 minutes, but he is witty, and the whole video is worth watching.
You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" idea in Vonnegut's rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.
My friend, John Raymonds, also has a substack. He just released a great article on the power of storytelling. It dives deep into the nature of stories and narrative transportation. Check it out.
We live in a world where technology changes quickly and often, while human nature remains relatively unchanged.
For most of us, human nature is the key variable.
I suspect Henry Ford focused on that when he said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right."
Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is often difficult for humans. Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to comprehend exponential growth, let alone its implications. For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster, and RadioShack.
The world changes quickly.
Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it or not).
As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said another way, you have to choose between chaos and nothing.
It's hard to keep up – and even harder to stay ahead.
Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.
My company may not be doing "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We utilize exponential technologies, such as high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning, to amplify intelligence and make data-driven, evidence-based decisions in real-time, all the time.
But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too.
Due to my age, experience, and tendency to be a pioneer, I've been battling technology for decades.
Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend, and I still love it. But my relationship with it is different now.
I recognize that there are things that change and things that stay the same. And for me, the things that "stay the same" tend to be more important.
Paradoxically, the part of me that stays the same can still change and grow – that is how you become more (and a more evolved version) of that thing.
The Bigger Picture
My father said that not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.
You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built. That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting 'how'.
Why is that often the case? Because technology that solves a problem is more profitable and popular than technology searching for a problem to solve.
Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some remarkably accurate predictions about the future of technology.
Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.
Back in 2020, I had a Zoom meeting with Matthew Piepenburg of Signals Matter. Of course, being the height of the Pandemic, it was over Zoom. Even though it was a private discussion, there was so much value in our discussion that we decided to share parts of it here.
While Matt's understanding of markets is based on Macro/Value investing, we use advanced AI and quantitative methods for our approach.
As you might expect, there are a lot of differences in how we view the world, decision-making, and the current market environment. Nonetheless, we share a lot of common beliefs as well.
Our talk explores several interesting areas and concepts. I encourage you to watch it below.
To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.
While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom".
Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow?
That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation … they remain relevant.
Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one.
Hope you enjoyed the video.
Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about.
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