Ideas

  • Prophetic Predictions

    New technologies fascinate me … As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

    Second Thought has put together a video that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

     

    via Second Thought

    It's interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

    While not all predictions are made equal, it seems that we have a better idea of what we want compared to how to accomplish it. 

    The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

     

    via YouTube

  • Sickcare vs. Healthcare

    WARNING … the next picture is potentially NSFW. You've been warned!

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    Are you mentally ready?

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    Sorry for the shock! It's a picture of me getting tested at APEX, Dr. Jeffrey Gladden's concierge medical wellness practice. 

    Apex treatment plands are individually tailored to optimize your health, human performance, and longevity. They begin with a deep dive into your underlying genetic, physiologic & biochemical makeup, and then benchmark neurocognitive function, body composition, cardiovascular performance, hormonal status and much more. Ultimately, they help you rethink your concepts of aging and decline. Think about it, how many more decades of being healthy, fit, and vital do you want?

    Over the past couple of weeks I have shared multiple articles on fitness: 

    It got me thinking about the difference between the way we view healthcare and what healthcare really should be. Healthcare takes care of you once you're sick, but it should really help you stay healthier for longer. 

    Many of my friends now believe that with technology and a sustained focus on health & longevity, they can live past 100. They're paying attention to genetic, physiologic & biochemical makeup, cognitive function, body composition, cardiovascular performance, hormonal status and much more. 

    And whether they're going to live past 100 or not, I can see the daily results in the quality of their life, and the way they look. 

    I fully intend on being here for a long time … So, I'm building the habits to keep me healthy. I'm investing in wellness care so I don't have to invest in healthcare. 

    I encourage you to ask yourself how you can do the same. Ask yourself  "how good can I be?" and "how long can I sustain that?"

    What a great investment.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 13th, 2019

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • A Day of Atonement

    We're sprinting towards the end of the year. With that, stress and high expectations can lead to anxiety and hurt feelings.

    Meanwhile, we just finished the Jewish High Holidays.  A few weeks ago was Rosh Hashanah – The Jewish New Year, and this past Wednesday was Yom Kippur – the Day of Atonement.  The practice around these holidays is a good reminder to take account of where you are and appreciate the blessings around you. It was a reminder to me to sprint towards the end of 2019 with the energy of a new year. 

    Yom Kippur is a lot like a Catholic confession, but it happens once a year. The service is a mix of contemplation, mindfulness, and contrition.  Ultimately, we apologize for the sins we've committed against ourselves, our communities, our friends, and our faith.  Also important is the promise to do better next year.  On top of repenting, we fast (no food or water) for a full day to make sure we're mindful.  In my case, it also made me sleepy (yes, my son caught me sleeping in synagogue … I'm sorry for that too). 

     

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    Looks like I still have some work to do.

    It's interesting how little human nature has changed in the past several thousand years. The list of sins is just as relevant today as I imagine it was back then. Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments, and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

    To help drive the importance of the day, we ceremoniously read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt because it's a powerful read, regardless of faith. 

    On Rosh Hashanah will be inscribed and on Yom Kippur will be sealed how many will pass from the earth and how many will be created; who will live and who will die; who will die at his predestined time and who before his time; who by water and who by fire, who by sword, who by beast, who by famine, who by thirst, who by storm, who by plague, who by strangulation, and who by stoning. Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

    Equally important to recognizing and repenting for your sins, is recognizing and appreciating what you did good as well … for yourself, your friends and family, or your community. 

    All-in-all, it's a nice framework that highlights how you have grown; and, it also shows where you have room to grow. 

    You have one quarter left in 2019 to make it your best year yet.  What can you do?  What can you do better?

    I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.

  • Trade Shows & The Evolution Of Trading

    I recently participated on several panel discussions about AI and trading. This picture was taken at The Trading Show in New York.

    NYCTradingShow2019 1

    I speak at a number of events every year because I enjoy meeting people pushing the envelope and shaking things up.  It is also a great opportunity to feel the pulse of the industry (by paying attention to the titles of the sessions, the types of sponsors and vendors attracted, and of course, the makeup of the audiences).

    Big changes are coming!  Technical innovations and data science insights continue to impress, but the use of alternative data and advanced AI is at a tipping point.  I describe these shifts in the book I’m finishing up, called “Next On Wall Street – Understanding AI’s Inevitable Impact on Trading”.  Let me know if you want to know more about the book.

    In the 90s, when I’d go to conferences, I would pay attention to speakers.  Now, when I go to conferences, I'm paying attention to the audience.   The players are changing so fast, the game itself is changing.

     

    Evolution of Trading

     

    There have been various generations of trading built on different innovations. When computerized data became available, simply understanding how to download and use it generated Alpha. The same could be said for each later evolution: the adoption of complex algorithms, access to massive amounts of clean data, and the adoption of AI strategies.

    Each time a new shift happens, traders pivot or fail. The scale of innovation increases, but the pattern remains.

    At this most recent conference, I was excited to see people recognizing the pivot toward AI, Big Data and high-speed computing.

    Change happens slowly, and then all at once, and we’re getting close to that inflection point.

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – September 6th, 2019

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Will A Robot Take Your Job? The War on Automation

    Dread of a robot-dominated future is mounting. Is there basis for it?

    Michael Osborne and Carl Frey, from Oxford University, calculated how susceptible various jobs are to automation. They based their results on nine key skills:

    • social perceptiveness
    • negotiation
    • persuasion
    • assisting and caring for others
    • originality
    • fine arts
    • finger dexterity
    • manual dexterity
    • and the need to work in a cramped area

    Screen Shot 2019-09-27 at 12.13.04 PMvia Michael Osborne & Carl Frey (Click For A Comprehensive Infographic)

    There are various statistics about the rate of change for robots taking jobs. Many expect that ~50% of current jobs will be automated by 2035.  Turns out, that statistic is from Michael and Carl, and the numbers were 47% by 20341. 

    The quote actually refers to the risk of them being automated. That 47% number doesn't take into account the cost, regulatory, political, or social pressures – so it's unlikely the full 47% will be realized. 

    Screen Shot 2019-09-27 at 12.16.19 PMvia The Economist

    Many use that quote as a fear-monger toward future joblessness and an increasing lack of middle-class mobility, but Mr. Frey isn't a proponent of that belief and neither am I. 

    Industrialization created short-term strife but vastly increased the economic pie over the long-term. It's likely that future automation will have similar effects if managed correctly. It's possible to truncate the pain if we learn from previous iterations of this cycle.  The fact that we're so far along technologically in comparison to previous revolutions means we're in a better position to proactively handle the transitory period. 

    We can't fail to manage the short-term consequences of the new tech because it will lead to unrest. If unrest and opposition to automation persist – it's likely the situation will be exacerbated. It's only by embracing innovation that we can make sure automation is a boon to the middle-class and not the bane of their existence. 

    Throughout history, technology has always created more jobs than it has destroyed – and while currently, that isn't the case, it doesn't mean it won't be. I often compare the AI revolution to the introduction of electricity. Electricity was a massive disruptor, and put many people out of work,  but a fantastic benefit to society. 

    Doom and gloom sell. It's much easier to convince people something's going to be painful than amazing because we're creatures of habit and our monkey brains fear pain much more than they enjoy pleasure. 

    Our attitudes and actions play a pivotal role in how the world impacts us. Pragmatically, we have various institutions in place to make the transition as painless as possible – note that I wouldn't say painless, but as painless as possible. 

    Onwards!

    _________________

    [1] Frey, Carl & Osborne, Michael. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?

  • Country Comparisons: Harvard’s Economic Dynamics Data-Viz

    Harvard's Center for International Development put together a tool that I think is pretty cool. It's called the Atlas of Economic Complexity.  Its goal is to get you to think differently about the economic strategy, policy, and investment opportunities for individual countries. 

    Each country's profile analyzes its economic dynamics and future growth prospects, including which industries are burgeoning. They made it look pretty as well.  If you're curious about specific questions, you can use their exploration function instead. 

    Screen Shot 2019-09-27 at 1.38.01 PMvia Atlas of Economic Complexity

    Interesting stuff.  Play around. Compare. Enjoy!

  • Training AI to Be Curious

    “Nobody phrases it this way, but I think that artificial intelligence is almost a humanities discipline. It's really an attempt to understand human intelligence and human cognition.” —Sebastian Thrun

    We often use human consciousness as the ultimate benchmark for artificial exploration. 

    The human brain is ridiculously intricate. While weighing only three pounds, it contains about 100 billion neurons and 100 trillion connections between those. On top of the sheer number complexity, the order of the connections, and the order of actions the brain does naturally make it even harder to replicate. The human brain is also constantly reorganizing and adapting. It's a beautiful piece of machinery.  

    We've had millions of years for this powerhouse of a computer to be created, and now we're trying to do the same with neural networks and machines in a truncated time period.  While deep learning algorithms have been around for a while, we're only just now developing enough data and enough compute power to change deep learning from a thought experiment to providing a real edge. 

    Think of it this way, when talking about the human brain we talk about left-brain and right-brain. The theory is that left-brain activities are analytical and methodical, and right-brain activities are creative, free-form and artistic. We're great at training AI for left-brain activities (obviously with exceptions). In fact, AI is beating us at these left-brain activities because a computer has a much higher input bandwidth than we do, they're less biased, and they can perform 10,000 hours of research by the time you finish this article.

    BRain SPlit

    It's tougher to train AI for right-brain tasks. That's where deep learning comes in. 

    Deep learning is a subset of machine learning based on unsupervised learning from unstructured/unlabeled data. Instead of asking AI a question, giving it metrics and letting it chug away, you're letting AI be intuitive. Deep learning is a much more faithful representation of the human brain. It utilizes a hierarchy of convolutional neural networks to handle linear and non-linear operations so it can think creatively to better problem-solve on potentially various data sets and in unseen environments. 

    When a baby is first learning to walk it might stand up and fall down. It might then take a small stutter step, or maybe a step that's much too far for its little baby body to handle. It will fall, fail, and learn. Fall, fail, and learn. That's very similar to the goal for deep learning or reinforcement learning. 

    What's missing is the intrinsic reward that keeps humans moving when the extrinsic rewards aren't coming fast enough. AI can beat humans at a lot of games but has struggled with puzzle/platformers because there's not always a clear objective outside of clearing the level. 

    A relatively new (in practice, not in theory) approach is to train AI around "curiousity"[1]. Curiosity helps it overcome that boundary. Curiosity lets humans explore and learn for vast periods of time with no reward in sight, and it looks like it can do that for computers too! 

     

    OpenAI via Two Minute Papers

    Exciting stuff! 

    _______

    [1] – Yuri Burda, Harri Edwards, Deepak Pathak, Amos Storkey, Trevor Darrell and Alexei A. Efros. Large-Scale Study of Curiosity-Driven Learning
    In ICLR 2019.

  • Radio Shack: America’s Technology Store!

    Here's a little throwback for you. The front page of a Radio Shack ad. 

     

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    Everything on that page can be found in your smart-phone today. Pretty cool!