Ideas

  • Are You A Maverick Or A Heretic?

    I have a tents problem. I keep buying tents, but I never go camping. Just kidding – I don’t own a tent. I have a tense problem – because I’m so excited about the future and what’s possible that I sometimes lose track of what’s been actualized "in real life" already.

    FutureFocus2

    Once I’ve thought it, it becomes real for me. Once I’ve figured it out and told it to someone … on some level, it's already done. And, I’m probably moving on to the next idea or challenge in my head (like: And what would that make possible?).

    I think this is common among (to use a Kolbe term) Quick Starts. I love being around entrepreneurs because a lot of them are Quick Starts, and they share this future-focused perspective. The problem, however, is that when you say something’s possible that hasn’t been proven yet, the average person responds with “no it’s not.”

    I’ve seen the pattern over and over, both in my own company and in my friend’s companies. At my company, we have a lot of data scientists – and they’re almost all naturally pessimistic. Which makes sense; if you were going to hire a personality type to be a scientist, you’d want someone who didn’t believe their hypothesis until they’ve proven it. It’s the right personality for the job, but it doesn’t mean they’re right, and it certainly doesn’t mean that approach is right for the visionaries.

    I’m not telling everyone to be visionaries. What I am saying is, if you’re naturally a visionary, feel free to embrace it, but surround yourself with people who keep you grounded in reality. We’d never have innovation if it wasn’t for you, and innovators wouldn’t ever get anything done if it wasn’t for other personality types.

    Information Is Beautiful put together an interactive list of famous ideas rejected that were later proven correct. You can filter by industry – Astronomy, Biology, Engineering, Mathematics, Medicine, Physical Sciences – and by other factors like how long the originator was a pariah, how they were treated due to their idea, and when the idea was formally adopted. Click to see the interactive version. 

    Screen Shot 2020-04-12 at 10.25.14 AMvia Information Is Beautiful

    In 895, Al-Razi believing a fever was a natural defense mechanism got him beaten.

    In 1592, Giordano Bruno believing the Sun was one of many stars got him killed. Shortly after, Galileo Galilei was imprisoned for believing the earth wasn’t the center of the solar system.

    Losing some of the stakes, in 1884 and 1903 respectively, Nikola Tesla and the Wright Brothers were ignored and rejected for their technological innovations.

    Even today you can see the initial response to visionaries like Peter Diamandis or Elon Musk.

    The status quo is comfortable, but if you’re standing still you’re moving backward.

    Are you a maverick or a heretic? You won’t know until you see it to the end. You may experience failures, but that’s the experience for your next endeavor.

    "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." – Thomas Edison

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 31st, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Here’s How Time Works Now…

    At this point, time feels like an illusion. My son, Zach, was recently musing on how nebulous time has felt during quarantine … ebbing and flowing between passing too fast and lasting an eternity. 

    But, what does he know?! At 50+ years in age, time flows much differently than it did in my youth…

    Right? It's not just me?

    Eli Grober wrote a piece for McSweeney's titled "Here's How Time Works Now". It is conspicuously fitting. 

    Here at Time, we’ve made a few changes you may already be experiencing that we think you should know about. Please see below.

    A Minute

    A minute used to be sixty seconds long. We thought this could be spiced up. A minute can now either be one hour, or it can take 3.5 seconds. We hope you enjoy this new feature.

    A Day

    You may remember that a day used to take place over the course of 24 hours. We felt this was too much. A day is now over the moment you first ask yourself, “What time is it?”

    It does not matter what time it actually is when you do this. As soon as you ask or think, “What time is it” for the first time that day, even if it is still ten in the morning, it will suddenly be eight at night. Does that make sense?

    A Week

    A week was once measured over the course of seven days. Our testing showed that this has been way too short, for way too long. So we made a big adjustment: a workweek now takes an entire year. From Monday to Friday, you will feel like it’s been (and you will actually age) an entire year. This is non-negotiable. This brings us to…

    A Weekend

    A weekend doesn’t exist anymore. You will go to sleep on Friday and you will wake up on Monday with a vague memory that you may have watched an entire TV show (every episode, every season) sometime in the last 48 hours.

    Read the Full Article via McSweeney's

    What year is it?

  • The Power of Asking The Right Questions

    There's immense power in asking the right questions. 

    Finding the right answers can be valuable too – but I'd argue finding the right questions is more important than finding the right answers. 

    To some extent, if you ask the right questions, the answers don't matter as much as how easy it was to find appropriate answers, proof of progress, or meaningful momentum.

    I shot this short video on the power of asking the right questions. Check it out. 

     

    The exercise of asking the right questions is really an exercise in the power of framing – of digesting or accessing information differently. There's power even in the reframing of the same question:  "How do I survive the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine?" vs. "In what ways has the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine improved my relationships (or productivity, or health)?" 

    In my experience, asking someone what they want often results in a response about what they don't want.  Yet, when the obstacle becomes the path forward it becomes easier to find the "hidden" gift.

    You control what you make things mean and how things make you feel. In many respects, this is the difference between feeling sad or happy or feeling like a victim versus someone in control of their destiny.  Your ability to control your perception is the difference between feeling like life happens to you or for you. 

    It's the same when tackling a research problem. When I hear "it can't be done" my first thought is usually "It can be done … just not the way you were thinking about it."

    The most important advances in society were impossible until they weren't.  The examples are too numerous to list.  But imagine telling someone in the middle ages that you could communicate with people around the globe in real-time, while seeing their faces, and sharing documents.  They'd try you as a witch faster than you could say "Zoom!" 

    The term Moonshot, in a technology context, is an ambitious, exploratory, and ground-breaking project that was considered to be impossible (like going to the Moon).

    Success is often a function of using Moonshots to set direction, then asking the right questions, being willing to see things differently, and finding a way to move in the right direction while gaining capabilities and confidence.  As long as you are doing those things, the trick is to keep going until you get there.  The result is inevitable if you do those things and don't give up.

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 24th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Cap And Frown: The Future of Higher Education

    Many of my friends have children either in high school or college. 

    Watching various graduation ceremonies – it's clear that this was an abnormal year for graduates.  That being said, I've been impressed with the sense of greater community that being isolated from your local community can give. 

    Empty Auditorium Graduationvia The Atlantic

    The coronavirus pandemic has put schools and students in an interesting predicament. 

    While the short-term ramifications have mainly targeted students, the long-term ramifications will also greatly impact schools. 

    Lockdown orders have put massive financial stress on schools. Scrambling to get students educated, building online materials, purchasing software, etc. all take massive amounts of money. On top of that, many universities have had to issue refunds for various services that students weren't able to receive. 

    We often think about how severely the pandemic and quarantine have affected hotels and air travel, but education was hit equally as hard. 

    I'm interested to see how schools will recover. Some universities are staying online for the fall semester, some are downsizing and cutting programs,  some are reducing tuition … but many are afraid of their financial model breaking under the pressure (regardless of the size of their endowment). 

    With nearly infinite education available online for free (including from universities), this could be a chance for a new educational model… time will tell. 

    What do you think is going to happen?

  • Putting 2020’s Job Losses in Perspective

    Despite rolling re-openings, the economic effects of this "great lockdown" are still mounting. 

    More than 36 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last two months – with 3 million coming last week. Over 14.7% of the population is unemployed. 

    Screen Shot 2020-05-17 at 12.13.18 PMvia NY Times

    That being said, just like with COVID-19 cases, we're past the peak. 

    Unfortunately, also like COVID-19 cases, the consequences are protracted, and we're unsure if any of our treatment plans are truly alleviating the problem. 

    The speed of this shutdown and its impact on employment has been almost unprecedented.

    Screen Shot 2020-05-17 at 12.30.01 PM(April 17th, 2020) via visual capitalist

    During the Great Depression, unemployment reached 24.9%, and there is no modern equivalent. Today, that would leave 41 million Americans out of work. But the short-term effects of this lockdown are significantly worse than anything in recent memory. 

    Luckily, the current crisis is happening on a much faster scale than any of the previous examples. The aforementioned crises generally took several years to happen with unemployment peaking at the tail-end of the recessions. Perhaps we have already passed the peak in only two months?  Same story, different topic … are the financial markets.  The hit was deeper and quicker than in previous crises, as long as you think the damage has already been done.

    Due to this situation stemming from a global pandemic, which resulted in a forced lockdown … there is an argument to be made for this not being a normal crash.  As a result, there's room for optimism (or skepticism).

    Frankly, this is an unprecedented situation.  Governments have taken massive action.  We all know they don't do these types of things during good times.  The question is will it be enough, and if so, for how long? 

    Also, actions have consequences.   If governments can really do this, and it works, then why wouldn't they continue?

    I suspect because it doesn't really work … or at least, too much of a good thing is bad for you too.

    As normal economic activity resumes, I look forward to seeing how much of the damage is temporary. There are clearly industries that were hit hard – air travel, hotels, etc. – but almost all industries expect to see a rebound. 

    Meanwhile, even though Georgia reopened, their initial jobless claims are still rising. Unemployment tracks the business cycle, so as businesses and spending ramp back up, the response should accelerate.  But, it's unclear when that will happen and how protracted the pain will be.

    As a reminder, though the lockdown is ending, the economic effects will ripple for a long-time. The length of the ripples depends on our response. 

    We live in interesting times!

  • Working From Home… Forever?

    Almost everyone – barring essential workers – has been working from home for over two months at this point. 

    So, on some level, we all have a pretty good understanding of the pros and cons of the work-from-home lifestyle. Despite some of the potential detriments, many companies are realizing that productivity hasn't dropped the way they expected. 

    In fact, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, just announced that henceforth his employees won't have the obligation of coming into the office. They can work from home forever if that's what they choose. 

    Dt950903shc0via Dilbert (September 1995)

    It's interesting to see how fast this pandemic changed "normal" in regard to business operations, shopping, etc. It is another reminder of how adaptable humans and society are – and how that has helped us survive and thrive throughout time. 

    My team has been working remotely since the beginning of March, and so far they've stepped up to the challenge. I've been impressed with the productivity, the hours they've worked, and the connection and collaboration achieved despite the loss of physical proximity.  I've heard similar stories from friends around the globe, in many industries.

    Nonetheless, I don't believe that the level of remote work and productivity we've experienced will continue.  Several things contributed to this level of productivity and output.  First, the world shut down and people had little else to do.  Second, during scary times, doing something productive and feeling like you are contributing are both comforting and therapeutic.   Third, I feel like people felt that it was an "all hands on deck" emergency, where many companies or industries were fighting for survival. 

    Time kills all things … and part of adapting is to make the "New", well, "Normal".

    That doesn't mean that remote work is bad.  Nor does it mean that we can't learn from the experience.  It is just that the shiny newness will fade and human nature will kick back in as we settle into the new normal.

    Texas is supposedly "Open for Business" – but our office will remain mostly unused.  A survey of our team found that 75% didn't believe it was smart or safe to return to the office yet. 

    Our next target date is June 15th.  In the meantime, the office is open for people who want or need it.  We just don't expect many to be there.

    We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable.  Still, I'm curious how time and human nature will affect the level of work done in the next month (compared to what was done or achieved in the prior month).  What we do now really does have the power to change the future.

    Personally, to keep productivity up while at home, I've dedicated a certain space – and time – to work. That routine, combined with not muddying the space with other activities, has been helpful. A side benefit is that I've also made time for mindfulness and exercise.  Combine that with healthier food (meaning way fewer restaurant meals or entertainment calories) and the health benefits are obvious.

    What habits do you want to bring back to your world when it re-opens?

    I'm also curious to hear about the methods and tools you're using to stay productive.   

    Onwards.

  • Selective Attention: What Are You Missing?

    Sticking with the philosophy theme, I encourage you to watch this video below on selective attention. 

    Daniel Simons' experiments on visual awareness have become famous.  The primary conclusion drawn from his research is that we can miss incredibly obvious things, right in front of us, if our attention is focused elsewhere.

    While watching the video, count how many passes the team in white makes. 

    This is worth doing so you experience it yourself.

    OK, click the video to do it now.

    via Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris (Click Here To Read The Full Paper)

    First, did you get the number of passes correct? Second, did you see the gorilla?

    If you have already seen this video or heard of the study, it's much easier, but most people absolutely miss the Gorilla, despite it not being hidden. 

    Think about how often your focus blinds you to the obvious.

    This next video demonstrates "change blindness".  In an experiment, 75% of the participants didn't notice that the experimenter was replaced by a different person.

     

    via Derren Brown

    Warning: Objects In Your Attention Span Are Fewer Than You Perceive.

    It's well known that we often miss objects in our field of view due to limited attention and change blindness, but, it's true with more than just sight. Moment by moment, the brain selectively processes information it deems most relevant. Experiments, like these, show the limits of our capacity to encode, retain, and compare visual information from one glance to the next. 

    More importantly, this suggests that our awareness of our visual surroundings is far more sparse than most people intuitively believe.  Consequently, our intuition can deceive us far more often than we perceive.

     

    Cg5594e05e6c731via Pickles

    As an entrepreneur, when I focus fully on something, it's as if everything else goes away. That level of focus can be a gift – but it can also be a curse. In Genius Network, we have a form we fill out at the beginning of each meeting. In it is a diagram where you rate your score on 8 factors: physical environment, career, money, health, friends & family, significant other, personal & intellectual growth, and fun & recreation

    It's rare that I'm fully succeeding in all 8 … we only have so much focus and bandwidth, it's inevitable I'll miss things. Clearly, in an information-rich environment, attention is a scarce and essential resource. So, pay attention (or automate the things you know need to be done right, every time).

    What are you currently prioritizing, and what's falling to the side due to that focus? What are you missing?

    Hope this was a helpful reminder. Let me know what you think about posts like this.  Thanks.

  • A Look At Razors (No, Not That Kind)

    In philosophy, a razor is a rule of thumb that allows one to eliminate unlikely solutions or actions in relation to a hypothesis. They're called razors because they shave off those unlikely explanations. 

    Most people have heard of Occam's Razor … even if you don't recognize the name, I bet you recognize the idea of abductive reasoning. 

    When presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the answer that makes the fewest assumptions.

    Essentially, the fewer assumptions a solution requires, the more likely it is to be true. As with any rule of thumb, it's a good starting point but is not definitive. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule.  It is still a good starting point for intellectual conjecture. 

    Comic OCcams Razor

    I recently found out there are more philosophical razors, and they're all interesting.  Here are some of the more interesting ones:

    I've had to remind myself about Hanlon's Razor a lot recently.  Also the other kind …

     

    3E55C09D-FADE-4B6B-9BDB-3A62A3FF9B8D_1_201_a

    As I told my mother on a Coronavirus Quarantine Mother's Day, "Yes, I know I need a haircut and a shave."  

    I'm planning on getting them on May 19th, because our part of Texas is opening up to a new normalcy that week.

    I hope you are doing well and staying positive.

    Looking forward to seeing people in real life again soon!