Ideas

  • Gartner’s 2020 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies

    Each year, I share an article about Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. It's one of the few reports that I make sure to track every year. It does a good job of explaining what technologies are reaching maturity, but which technologies are being supported by the cultural zeitgeist. 

    Technology has become cultural. It influences almost every aspect of every-day life, and it's also a massive differentiator in today's competitive landscape. 

    Sorting through which technologies are making real waves (and will impact the world) and which technologies are a flash in the pan, can be a monumental task. Gartner's report is a great benchmark to compare reality against. 

    2019's trends lead nicely into 2020's trends. While there have been a lot of innovations, the industry movers have stayed the same – advanced AI and analytics, post-classical computing and communication, and the increasing ubiquity of technology (sensors, augmentation, IoT, etc.). 

    What's a "Hype Cycle"?

    As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

    At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

    Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

    Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

    1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
    2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
    3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
    4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
    5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

    Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

    That being said – it's worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can't predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity. 

    What's exciting this year?

    Before I focus on this year, it's important to remember that last year Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle. This points toward more innovation and more technologies being introduced than in the genesis of this report. Many of the technologies from last year (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are represented within newer modalities. 

    It's also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies. 

    For comparison, here's my article from last year, and here's my article from 2015. Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year's Hype Cycle.

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    via Gartner

    This year's ~30 key technologies were selected from over 2000 technologies and bucketed into 5 major trends:

    • Composite Architectures represent the organizational shift to agile and responsive architectures due to decentralization and increased volatility. Emphasis is on modularity, continuous improvement, and adaptive innovation to respond to changing market conditions (like in trading, or in businesses rapidly shifting to remote). Sample technologies include embedded AI and private 5G
    • Algorithmic Trust is a direct result of increasing data exposure, fake news, and biased algorithms. As a result, technologies have been built to "ensure" identities, privacy, and security. A great example is more technologies being created on the blockchain. Other examples include explainable AI and authenticated provenance
    • Beyond Silicon is in its infancy, but represents the limitations of Moore's law and the physical of silicon. This has led to new advanced materials with enhanced capabilities being used, and other simple materials being used. Examples of this technology can be seen in  DNA computing and storage, quantum computing, and biodegradable sensors
    • Formative AI is the shift towards more responsive AI; models that adapt over time and models that can create novel solutions to solve specific problems. Sample technologies include generative AI, self-supervising learning, and composite AI. 
    • Digital me represents the integration of technology with people, both in reality and virtual reality. Past hype cycles have introduced implants and wearables, but the potential applications of the technology are growing, especially in response to social distancing.  Examples are health passports, Two-way BMI, and social distancing technologies

    I'm always most interested in the intersection of AI and advanced analytics. This year, it looks like many of the fledgling AI technologies have become integrated and more advanced. Much like the formative years for children, formative AI represents a new era in AI maturity. Models are becoming more generalized, and able to attack more problems. They're becoming integrated with human behavior (and even with humans as seen in digital me). 

    As we reach new echelons of AI, it's actually more likely that you'll see over-hype and short-term failures. As you reach for new heights, you often miss a rung on the ladder… but it doesn't mean you stop climbing. More importantly, it doesn't mean failure or even a lack of progress.  Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, stronger, more resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you wanted (or something better).  It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.

    To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch … Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. 

    Many of these technologies have been hyped for years – but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate a year and underestimate 10. 

    Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

  • Turning Thoughts Into Things

    Well done is better than well said – Benjamin Franklin

    Turning thoughts into things is an important skill set to understand.

    Visionaries tend to spend a lot of their time exploring the future. In and of itself, this is neither good nor bad.

    If you generate a lot of ideas (but don't properly cultivate and structure them) those ideas can easily become a distraction to you and your team. 

    When properly managed and pursued methodically and purposefully – those same ideas become the catalyst for massive progress. 

    There are three main ways, I believe you can make thoughts into things:

    • Focus Your Energy – People often focus more on what they don't want, rather than on what they do want. By directing your energy and focus toward opportunities and possibilities, it becomes a lot more likely that you will recognize and take advantage of opportunities and possibilities when they appear or occur. 
    • Imagine Your Future – One of my favorite quotes is " the best way to predict the future is to create it." Abraham Lincoln originally said it, but I've thought or said it enough it feels like mine to me.  By deeply imagining the future you want to call into existence, and thinking about it with that end in mind, it becomes easier to imagine the intermediary goals or milestones needed to reach your desired goals.  The basic outline brings order to the chaos … and the strategies and tactics needed come from the finer distinctions you make thinking about each part (or what is needed to reach the next milestone).
    • Make It Tangible – Name it!  Naming something is powerful. Whether it's a product in your business, a concept, or a goal. Making it tangible solidifies it in your mind, and in the mind of others.  Think about what happens if you reach it (and what would happen if you fail).  Come up with the criteria that provides evidence of success.  What would it look like?  How would it perform?  What does it make possible? What would it prevent? How would it impact key measures of efficiency, effectiveness, or certainty?  What can you do about it now?

    Ultimately, each of these ideas is entirely dependent on the actions you're willing to take. And how decisive you can be. 

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    What aren't you doing because you're overthinking it? Are there opportunities you are missing simply because you aren't looking for them?

    Onwards!

  • My Talk With The Sustainable Family Wealth Summit

    I recently had the chance to speak at a wealth summit helping to educate family offices on the different opportunities available to them. Because of my work around the hedge fund space – and with emerging technologies like AI – I was brought in to focus on both topics for their audience.

    The financial industry is intimidating – especially to newcomers – and while this summit is targeted towards family offices with $5MM+ in liquid assets, the lessons are accessible to any level of wealth. 

    The presentation was somewhat of a departure from my normal talking points because it was more focused on the basics of hedge funds & trading in general.  Nonetheless, I think it's worth watching.  This clip shows my response to the moderator's previous presentation.  The presentation provides an introduction to hedge funds and alpha generation now and into the future.  We also talk about Madoff, performance fees, the 2008 crash, "why a hedge fund?" and a lot more. 

     

     

    Hope that helped.  Let me know what you think.

     

  • It’s Not About The Nail…

    Apparently, a lot of wisdom can be learned from nails. I've shared the story about the Nail in the Fence in the past. 

    This week a funny video called "It's Not About The Nail" recycled through my inbox again. 

    Have you seen it yet? It has had 20+ million views across various social media and syndication sites.  So, you've likely run across it even if you haven't watched it.
     
     

    via Jason Headley

    The short version is that a woman tries to communicate with her significant other about her headache, which he quickly identifies as (literally) a nail in her forehead, with a seemingly obvious solution: Let’s get rid of that nail. She insists that that is absolutely NOT the problem, and if he would just listen to her, that would be clear to him. She explains, clarifies, objects, etc. Eventually, he does see the light … and gives her not the solution he found so (literally) painfully obvious, but the solution she asked for.
     
    "Don't try to fix it. I just need you to listen." It's obvious.
     
    Good for a laugh, but, also good as a reminder. Simply put, a problem that may seem apparent to you may not be so obvious to the person with a problem … and that might be the real problem.

    Whether your takeaway is that we often miss the answer right in front of our face, or that we have to be aware of what other people need, or that you can't help people that don't want to be helped … you're right. 

     

  • The Disconnect Between the Stock Market and Consumers

    The recent shutdown has brought light to the disparity between markets and economics, and also served to widen the relationship. 

    In high school, most of us were taught basic supply and demand. Some probably took a macroeconomics course, fewer got an MBA, and I know some of you reading this are actual economists or traders. 

    Yet, most people (even some economists) misunderstand what drives financial markets. 

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    In theory, share price is supposed to be the net present value of the future earnings stream.  This is a "weighing" mechanism that also balances positives and negatives, short-term and long-term issues, industry cycles, fundamental data, and a host of other issues.

    The markets represented the collective fear and greed of a population.  A trader doesn't need to guess what someone specific is going to do … their calculus is more about the law of large numbers.  How will most people respond to a sudden move up or a sudden move down?  Will they see it as a danger or an opportunity?

    In a sense, markets operate like an actuary for an insurance company.  Actuaries don't need to know when you will die, specifically, but rather if they insure 10,000 people like you, how many are likely to die this year (and what premium can they charge to cover the death benefits to be paid, the cost of operations, plus their intended profit margin.

    In the basics of economics, markets and their consumers play a sort of tug-of-war until an equilibrium is set. Price represents the amount of money a consumer is willing to pay for this good (or a comparable good) and the amount of money a seller is willing to sell it for taking into account overhead, manufacturing, time-value, etc. 

    It's not necessarily the maximum cost a consumer would pay and minimum a seller would sell, but for the sake of this discussion, that nuance isn't overly important. 

    The markets were an important price discovery tool using "open outcry" as a way to see at what price others were willing to buy or sell.

    As markets got faster and transactions stopped being generated solely by people trading with people, the pricing mechanism changed.  I think of it as a fair value range surrounded by a fair speculation buffer.  As markets get faster, noisier, and more volatile, the fair speculation range expands.  That means pricing is more dynamic and edges decay faster than ever.

    This also means that less of the price is based on simple things, like whether the economy is improving or declining.  As we've seen, markets can soar even when economies face serious existential threats.

    Market structure, today, involves many more players investing for many different reasons. Gone are the days when the market waited with bated breath for Fed conferences, earnings reports, and presidential updates. Instead, you have speculators, passive investors, fundamental investors, quantitative investors, companies trying to hedge bets, market makers, manipulative algorithms, governments, and more … all involved in trench warfare seeking an edge. 

    They trade for different reasons – some may make sense logically to you, others are executing part of a strategy you may never figure out. But, together, they form the engine that powers the market.  Markets really are a collection of forces all focused on trading.

    Simplifying, you can look at the decline in the economy compared to the relative stability of the stock market (in light of the world shutting down), as proof of this. Economic stimulus played a massive role in propping up the market, but so did the comparative variety in why market participants trade. It's why you still see liquidity in the markets despite the decrease in consumer confidence and economic activity.  

    Sure, the government created increased liquidity, stimulated markets, and even participated directly (and indirectly) at plunge protection.  But that is the playing field all traders have to play on right now.  It doesn't matter if it reflects the realities you see in the economy or the world.

    Today's markets are much more complicated than before.  Moreover, the vast amount of information available (whether true, false, relevant, irrelevant, clarifying, or misleading) creates a vast signal-to-noise ratio challenge.  Meanwhile, many market participants (like many day-traders) have simply ridden the wave here, though it's unlikely that a vast majority of them truly understand what they're doing. Think of this as the "Smart Money" versus "Dumb Money" … and it doesn't usually end well for one of them.

    VisualCapitalist put together a great infographic looking at the difference in response to the shutdown via economic activity and the S&P 500 as of July 17th. 

    Take a look. 

    Understanding-the-Disconnect2via visualcapitalist

    The chart makes the valid point that the S&P 500 is not an equally-weighted index and is currently driven primarily by the tech giants, even with other industries struggling. 

    Consumer sentiment is still a factor, and news cycles can absolutely still impact stocks, as evidenced by Kodak's meteoric growth (and subsequent decline) last week. 

    All-in-all, there are lots of things influencing markets besides the economy. It is a lot to take in (especially for us humans who can only process seven things plus or minus two at any one time.

    It is no wonder that Smart Money is relying more on exponential technologies (like AI and Big Data).

    Be safe!

    Onwards! 

  • Fueling Alpha: A Revisitation

    Last year, around this time I shared an article on data as the new precious commodity. In case you missed it, I thought it was worth revisiting. The closing feels even more relevant today than when I wrote it. Below is the article in its entirety


    Data is becoming a precious commodity.

    A staggering 90% of all the world’s data (2.5 quintillion bytes per day) has been created in the past two years alone … and its value is rapidly rising.

    With IoT growing from 2 billion devices in 2006 to a projected 200 billion by 2020 you can expect to see that growth continue to explode.

    Data is today’s “wild west” and the battlefield of today’s tech titans. 

    AlphabetAmazonAppleFacebook, and Microsoft all have an unprecedented amount of data (and power).

    Rapid growth means little time to create adequate rules. Everyone’s jumping to own more data than the next and to protect their own data from prying eyes.

    I see it in trading, but it’s pervasive in every industry and in our personal lives. 

    Having basic data and basic analytics used to be enough, but the game is changing. Traders used to focus on price data, but now you’re seeing an influx of firms using alternative data sets to find an edge. If you’re using the same data sources as your competitors and competing on the same set of beliefs, it’s hard to find a sustainable edge. Understanding the game they’re playing, and their rules are important, but that’s table stakes.

    Figuring out where you can find extra insight, or where you can make the invisible visible, creates a moat between you and your competition, and it lets you play your own game.

    I shot a video where I talk high-level about Data as fuel for your business. Check it out.

     

    It is interesting to think about what’s driving the new world (of trading, of technology, of AI, etc.) and that often involves identifying what drove the old world. History has a way of repeating itself.

    Before e-mails, fax machines were amazing. Before cars, you were really happy with a horse and buggy.

    It’s in these comparisons that I think we can help explain the importance of data in today’s new world economics.

    New World Economics Data Is A Precious Commodity_GapingVoid

    via gapingvoid

    Data as the New Oil

    Petroleum has played a pivotal role in human advancement since the industrial revolution; it fueled (and still fuels) our creativity, technology advancements, and a variety of derivative products. There are direct competitors to fossil fuels that are gaining steam, but I think it’s more interesting to compare petroleum to data due to their parallels in effect on innovation.

    The process of pumping crude oil out of the ground and transforming it into a finished product is far from simple, but anyone can understand the process at a high-level. You have to locate a reservoir, drill, capture the resource, and then refine it to the desired product – heating oil, gasoline, asphalt, plastics, etc. 

    The same is true for data.

    You've got to figure out what data you might have, how it might be useful, you have to figure out how to refine it, clean it, fix it, curate it, transform it into something useful, and then how to deliver it to the people that need it in their business. And even if you've done this, you then have to make people aware that it's there, that it's changing, or how they might use it. For people who do it well, it's an incredible edge. – Howard Getson

    Data can be seen as the fuel to the information economy and oil to the industrial economy. The amount of power someone has can be correlated to their control of and access to these resources … and, leaking of these resources can lead to extreme consequences.

    Why Data Is Better Than Oil

    The analogy works, but it’s just that, an analogy, and the more you analyze it, the more it falls apart. Unlike the finite resource that is oil, data is all around us and increasing at an exponential rate, so the game is a little different:

    • Data is a renewable resource. It’s durable, it’s reusable, and it’s being produced faster than we can process it.
    • Because it’s not a scarce resource, there’s no urge to hoard it – you can use it, transform it, and share it knowing that it won’t diminish.
    • Data is more useful the more you use it.
    • As the world’s oil reserves dwindle, and renewable resources grow in popularity and effectiveness, the relative value of oil drops. It’s unlikely that will happen to data.
    • Also, while data transport is important, it’s not expensive the way oil is. It can be transported and replicated at light speed.

    Using alternative data gives traders an advantage, but it doesn’t always have to be confidential or hard to find information. Traders now have access to vast amounts of structured and unstructured data. An important source that many overlook is the data produced through their own process or the metadata from their own trades or transactions.

    In the very near future, I expect these systems to be able to go out and search for different sources of information. It's almost like the algorithm becomes an omnivore. Instead of simply looking at market data or transactional data, or even metadata, it starts to look for connections or feedback loops that are profitable in sources of data that the human would never have thought of. – Howard Getson

    In a word of caution, there are two common mistakes people make when making data-driven decisions. First, people often end up slaves to the data, losing focus on the bigger picture. Second, even the most insightful data can’t predict black swans. It’s important to exercise caution.

    The future of data is bright, but it’s also littered with potential challenges. Privacy concerns and misuse of data have been hot button topics, as have fake news and the ability of systems to generate misleading data. In addition, as we gain access to more data, our ability to separate signal from noise becomes more important.

    The question becomes, how do you capitalize on data, without becoming a victim to it? 

    Food for thought!

  • Fintech, AI & Analytics – My Webinar with IBM

    Back in June, I participated in a series of webinars for IBM. The focus was on building smart and secure financial services. My talk, specifically, was on advanced computing and the new world of trading. Challenging times drive advancement – and what better time to talk about advancements in technology (and their applications) than in the midst of a global pandemic. 

    You can watch a replay of the Fintech webinar here. There are several interesting presentations.  If you just want to watch my presentation, it starts at the 5:16 mark.

    In addition, I've uploaded a different version of just my talk that you can watch directly here.

     

     

    In the past. trading used to be about people trading with people. Markets represented the collective fear and greed of populations. So price patterns and other technical analysis measures really represented the collective fear and greed of a population. If you could capture that data and figure out certain statistical probabilities, you might have had an edge. The keywords is "might have". 

    If you had more information than your competitors – an information asymmetry – you had an amazing edge. At one time that was being able to print out reports on stocks from that new-fangled technology called the internet. As time passed, it became harder and harder to gain an asymmetric information advantage. 

    The rules, the players, and the game have all changed. Today, technological asymmetry is a major factor, and your edges come from things like bigger and faster servers and low latency connections to markets.

    In the future, I see those edges combining as artificial intelligence starts to leverage exponential technologies and new data sources (like alternative data and metadata feedback loops). It is easy to imagine a time when information is the fuel, but your ability to digest and parse that information is the engine. 

    I talk about much more in the video but boiling down the main points,  ask yourself (in business, in trading, in life) are you separating the signal from the noise?

    Expect Increased Volatility and Noise_GapingVoid

    A technological advantage doesn't mean anything if you're plugging in inaccurate or biased data into it. 

    We've talked about it over the past few weeks with the never-ending news cycle – but it's a lesson that's infinitely applicable. 

    Onwards! 

  • Time Flies – Another Year, Another Lesson

    Tomorrow is my 57th birthday. I can't believe how time flies. Birthdays seem to come more quickly as you get older.

    It makes sense, though, I suppose. When you were four, a birthday represented a quarter of your life. Now, a year represents a much smaller percentage.

    While it's not always pleasant getting older, it sure beats the alternative.

    I made a concerted effort this year to make strides towards being more healthy, fit, and vital in mind, body, and spirit.  If you are going to live longer, your future has to be compelling.  I always strive for my future to be bigger than my past.  

    As time marches on, I become increasingly grateful for the friends and family who share the journey with me. 

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    When I was a kid, I couldn't imagine being where I am today … nor could I imagine the path that got me here. Looking back, it all seems to make sense (even though it felt pretty random while making my way through it).

    I feel lucky to have been in the right place at the right time, so consistently, and to find the gift in most situations (even when it seemed so well hidden).

    I'm grateful for a lot today, and as much as I love innovation, sometimes things are perfect just the way they are. 

    Hopefully, you took time this weekend to let someone know they're important to you. If not, now is a good time for that too!

  • Putting Bezos’s Wealth Into Perspective

    Jeff Bezos is officially worth ~$172 Billion dollars; more than he was worth before his divorce. 

    Everyone on earth is closer to being a millionaire than he is. Think about that.  He has so much more than $1 million dollars that the homeless person willing to work for food is closer to being merely a millionaire than Bezos. The med school graduate with $100K+ in debt? Closer to being a millionaire than Bezos.  Obvious at one level … but crazy to think about on another level, right?

    Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers, so it's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. 

    I've recently seen a couple of good visualizations of the difference between a million and a billion dollars. 

    If you have an hour to "waste," this comprehensive video by Tom Scott shares a couple of different ways to look at it, and he literally goes on a road trip to show the difference. 

     

    via Tom Scott

    One good example from the video is "It would take almost 12 days for a million seconds to elapse and 31.7 years for a billion seconds." A billion seconds from today would be 1988. 

    Another:

    1 dollar

    • 0.0043 inches or 0.00010922 meters (thickness)

    1B dollars

    • 1B x 0.0043 inches → 4.3M inches → 68 miles
    • 1B x 0.00010922 meters → 109K meters → 109 kilometers

    Now multiply that by 172.

    In distance, Bezos's net worth is a hair under half the equatorial circumference of the Earth.

    Here's a link to specifically understanding Bezos's net worth – https://mkorostoff.github.io/1-pixel-wealth. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. If you have a million dollars, you can do that for approximately twelve days. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. Ignoring the difference between net worth and cash, Jeff Bezos could spend over $9M per day for over 31 years.

    Lastly, here's a shorter video visualizing the $10 Trillion in economic stimulus the U.S. government has been undertaking. 

     

    via Demonocracy

    Even with these depictions, it's hard to understand. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much). 

    Hope this was helpful!

  • Let’s Play: News Segment or Propaganda Piece?

    There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ….

     

    200719 test-pattern

    The original,, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

    There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

    As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias

    We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

    Recently, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

    To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

     

    via Courier News

    Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

    It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

    The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections

    Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

    That being said, it's something to be cognizant of – not necessarily offended by.

    Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

    It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

    The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

    As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens.

    It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble.