Ideas

  • How Machines Learn: Big Brother Is Watching

    The ubiquity of Machine Learning algorithms remains a topic of interest because we, as a society, still haven't come to terms with what "acceptable" use looks like, and what privacy looks like in the post-AI world. 

    Algorithms are helping you pick out your next gift on Amazon, controlling what you find on Google, they're suggesting new music for you on Spotify, and they're doing their best to keep you on their website.

    They're following you in stores, on the streets, and many would argue they're tracking your phone calls, text messages, and more. 

    With all that being said, I do think it's important to have a cursory knowledge of the things that impact our lives … so, even if you're not an AI-aficionado, I think it's important to somewhat understand how machines learn, and how powerful they're becoming. 

    The video is a bit simple in its explanations, but it describes some important concepts.

     

    CGP Grey via Youtube

    The video focuses on Genetic Algorithms, which is one type of machine learning – and neglects some of the other more complicated approaches.

    As machine learning gets more complicated and evolved, it gets harder for a human to understand what makes it good … and that's okay. Understanding the direction AI is heading is more important than truly understanding the intricacies. 

    It's human nature to feel safer when we understand something. It's human nature to envision machines as making human-like decisions, just faster.

    Of course, just because it suits human nature to believe something, that doesn't make it true. 

    Part of what makes machine learning exciting is that it can do a lot of things well that humans are really bad at. 

    In reality, it doesn't matter why a bot is making a decision, or what inputs the bot is making the decision on. What matters is the performance and level of decision-making in relation to itself and to other options (and whether the bot is biased).

    With respect to trading, focusing on the markets is a distraction.

    For the most part, I don't care how markets are doing.

    I care how our systems are doing and I care how the portfolio is doing.

    It's a brave new world, and not only is big brother watching, but algorithms are too.

    Live long and prosper!

  • What It Was Like Buying a Computer in 1994

    We take for granted a lot of the technology we have today. Computers and phones have evolved so fast that it's hard to remember that they haven't been around for many years. When my youngest son was born in 1993,  cassette tapes and the Sony Walkman were still popular, I had a wired phone in my car, and we had a Macintosh-II in the study. 

    IMG_4907

    Everything in this photo now exists in the cheapest of smartphones. 

    For a blast from the past and a look back at what used to be top-of-the-line … here's a video of people buying a computer in 1994. 

     

    via David Hoffman

    Video transfer and playback. 160-megabyte hard drive. 32 megahertz. All for the low price of $2,000. 

    Pretty cool to see how far we've come!  Still, someday soon, they will look back at the tech we have now as "primitive" and "quaint".

    I can't wait!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 4th, 2020

    Did you watch the first presidential debate this week? I have friends on both sides of the fence, but we all agreed the debate was a mess. 

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     

    Trading Links:

     

  • The Day of Atonement

    A few weeks ago was Rosh Hashanah – The Jewish New Year, and this evening starts Yom Kippur – the Day of Atonement.  The practice around these holidays is a good reminder to take account of where you are and appreciate the blessings around you. It was a reminder to me to sprint towards the end of 2020 with the energy of a new year. 

    Yom Kippur is a lot like a Catholic confession, but it happens once a year. The holiday is a mix of contemplation, mindfulness, and contrition.  Ultimately, we apologize for the sins we've committed against ourselves, our communities, our friends, and our faith.  Also important is the promise to do better next year.  On top of repenting, we fast (no food or water) for a full day to make sure we're mindful.  

    Ezgif.com-gif-maker

    via Dry Bones

    It's interesting how little human nature has changed in the past several thousand years. The list of sins is just as relevant today as I imagine it was back then. Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments, and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

    To help drive the importance of the day, we ceremoniously read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt because it's a powerful read, regardless of faith. 

    Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

    On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor) or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

    This year, my local Synagogues are closed due to the pandemic. As a result, I happen to be in Cabo for today. As I look at a photo I took, I find myself thinking about that lesson – that we have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.

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    The picture is just a picture.  The story you tell about it (or what it means to you) is actually more important than the image itself.

    One could lament that the sun is going down just as easily as they could celebrate the beautiful sunset.  Someone could complain about the rough desert terrain or decide to notice its natural beauty.  You could complain about the heat and humidity or jump in the ocean to cool off.  You could struggle with how difficult it is to get there or appreciate how nice it is to be somewhere so remote and secluded.  In every case, the choice is yours … this is “free will”.
     
    In addition, some might say that it is wrong that I was in Cabo at the start of Yom Kippur. It reminds me of a story.  
     
    Someone asks their religious leader if they can smoke during prayer time … consequently, they are told “of course not” and reminded to take prayer time seriously and to treat it as a sacred moment.  Meanwhile , a different person says “while walking along the beach, and smoking, they feel close to God and start to pray … they ask their religious leader if this is OK … with that framing, the answer is “of course” because it is always a good time to feel close to the Divine and to pray.

     

    Progress starts by telling the truth.  And Yom Kippur is a time to honest reflection. Equally important to recognizing and repenting for your sins, is recognizing and appreciating that you did good and well … for yourself, your friends and family, or your community. 

    All-in-all, it's a nice framework that highlights how you have grown; and, it also shows where you have room to grow. 

    100 Days Left

    We're currently bringing in the Jewish New Year, but we also have just under 100 days before the normal New Year. Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 sucked and pretending it's the universe's fault they didn't accomplish what they set their mind to … but, 100 days is a great amount of time to sprint, to make a change, to end the year on a high note. 

    That's plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

    I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – September 27th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     
     
     

    Trading Links:

     
     

  • The State of Democracy

    I feel very lucky to live in America and lucky to live in a democracy … but democracy is a term that encompasses a wide spectrum of activity and governments. In the same way that Republics and Capitalism also represent a wide spectrum of activity.

    America has adopted a form of all three of those underlying structures, but it changes with each regime change, and as we adapt to the complexities of modern-day civilization.  

    It's worth understanding the nuances of what brand of democracy you live in – and what would make it ideal (in your opinion).

    That's a much too complicated question to answer in the scope of this article, but a great starting point is understanding the world spectrum of Authoritarian -> Full Democracy, and how the different countries score. 

    Luckily, visualcapitalist put together a great interactive graphic based on the Democracy Index global ranking (as of 2019). Click the image to see the interactive version.

    State-of-democracy-1200-1

    via visualcapitalist

    Before I get into the rankings, a quick look at the classifications within the Democracy Index. It bases the score on 60 questions that cover things like the electoral process, civil liberties, government functions, and political culture. 

    • Authoritarian Regime: 0.0 – 3.99
    • Hybrid Regime: 4.0-5.99
    • Flawed Democracy: 6.0-7.99
    • Full Democracy: 8.0 – 10.0

    Topping the list is Norway, and the most Authoritarian regime is North Korea.

    Unfortunately, based on this metric, the U.S. (which is one of the oldest democracies in the world) was downgraded to a flawed democracy as of 2016, after teetering for many years. Some stated reasons for this shift are the growing distrust in public institutions, an upshot in ideological purity, and less bipartisan efforts. 

     Since 2006, when the Index was created, Democracy has actually been decreasing globally. Today, around half of the world's population lives in a democracy of some sort, with only 5.7% living in a "full democracy". 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – September 12th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Innovator Mindsets

    To some, new technology is a good thing.  To others, less is more.

    Most people simply "tolerate" technology transitions, some people drive them, and others crave them and use them as a catalyst for growth or strategic advantage.

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    In the image, above, the blue line represents consumer adoption (taken from Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm", while the yellow line represents market share. 

    As you can see, only 2.5% of the population drive innovation (or adopt it early enough to help drive the Alpha & Beta versions of emerging technologies). 13.5% make up the Early adopters, who help get it ready for the mainstream.  Then the early and late majorities are the groups that ultimately consume (or use) the mature product. Meanwhile, Laggards are often forced kicking and screaming into “new” technologies as the early adopters are well on their way to subsequent iterations. 

    Even if you are not an innovator, here are a few Innovator Mindsets that I find useful. 

    1. You Believe There’s A Better Way
      • Wherever you are, you know that there is a best next step and you are eager to find it and take it.
      • You recognize that the opportunity for more (or better) often lies just beyond the constraints or problems of the current way.
      • The bigger future fuels your efforts. When initial excitement fades, understanding what the bigger future can bring helps you power through.
    2. You Are Comfortable Being Uncomfortable
      • You understand that Pioneers sometimes take arrows in the back.
      • When creating a new reality, you expect some resistance as a result of the law of averages. Escaping the status quo takes a lot of momentum, but it’s worth it. 
      • You recognize when victory is near.  In a quirk of human nature, too many people quit just before they would have won. Don’t make that mistake.
    3. You Know Where You're Going, Even If You Are Not Sure How You're Going To Get There
      • Your goal should be your North Star. A clear direction is important to ensure that activity leads to progress.
      • Measure progress and momentum rather than the distance from your goal.
      • It is easier to course-correct while in motion.
      • If you’re too committed to a path that isn’t leading in the right direction, you might find what Blockbuster, RadioShack, and Kodak found.
    4. You Are Married To Questions (Not Necessarily Answers)
      • Everything works until it doesn’t; and nothing works forever.
      • It’s easy to find an answer and think it’s the right one, but there’s always a best next step or a better way.
      • Figure out what you want and how to get it. This is much more empowering than focusing on what you don’t want or why you can’t get it.
      • Ask questions that focus on opportunities or possibilities rather than challenges or what you want to avoid.
      • Energy flows where focus goes.
      • Commit to finding a way!

    I plan on sharing more Innovator Mindsets.  Let me know what you think.

  • Feast on This: The Big Mac Index

    In the past, I've shared various "indicators" for markets that just don't make sense — like the Superbowl Indicator. The lesson to learn from those indicators is that we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable even where there are none. 

    Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. More people than you would hope, or guess,  attempt to forecast the market based on gut, ancient wisdom, and prayers.

    While hope and prayer are good things … they aren’t good trading strategies.

    Today, I want to talk about a still "out there" index, but one that's a bit more practical from an economics standpoint (remember economics ≠ markets). I don't believe it should influence trading decisions, but I do believe it can teach you something about the practical realities of economies. 

    The Economist's Big Mac index seeks to make exchange-rate theory more digestible.  They say it is arguably the world's most accurate financial indicator (based on a fast-food item).

    The Big Mac index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), according to which exchange rates should adjust to equalize the price of a basket of goods and services around the world. For them, the basket is a burger … a McDonald’s Big Mac. The difference the disparity in price between Big Macs, and the actual exchange rate lets you know whether the currency is over or undervalued. 

    According to this measure (as of July 15th, 2020), the most overvalued currency is the Swiss Franc at 20.9% above it's PPP rate. In Switzerland a Big Mac costs 6.50 francs. In the U.S. a Big Mac costs $5.71. The implied exchange rate is 1.14, and the actual exchange rate is 0.94 — thus 20.9% overvalued. For contrast, South Africa Rands are the most undervalued (67%) with a Big Mac costing 31 rand and an actual exchange rate of 16.67. 

    Click the image below to see the interactive graphic.

    Screen Shot 2020-09-06 at 11.19.19 AM2via The Economist

    The index is supposed to be a guide to the direction in which currencies should, in theory, head in the long run. It is only a rough guide, because its price reflects non-tradable elements ­such as rent and labor. For that reason, it is probably least rough when comparing countries at roughly the same stage of development.

    It is not meant to be the most precise gauge, but it works as a global standard because Big Macs are global and it's lighthearted enough to be a good introduction for college students learning more about economics. 

    You can read more about the Big Mac index here or read the methodology behind the index here.

  • I Can’t Believe It’s Not Steak! (Yes, I Can)

    Last week we talked about emerging technologies … not mentioned were emerging technologies in the meat space. 

    Most of us have seen the meat alternatives grow in popularity with vegan sausages, hamburgers & more. In fact, the meat substitute industry is valued at around $5 Billion, and is expected to grow to 8.1 billion by 2026.

    I've tried an impossible burger, and while it's certainly not as good as a hamburger yet – it's better than I expected. 

    The most recent innovation is 3d-printed meat. Yes, you can print steak. Now, 3D bioprinting is still very early in its lifecycle and is primarily being used for medical purposes. Theoretically, down the line, it could be used to create meat that didn't come from a true living animal. 

    Today, however, an Israeli start-up is printing plant-based steaks that supposedly match the taste and texture of steak better than alternatives. 

    5f50f7be7ed0ee001e25d397via Reuters

    Supposedly, 3D printing allows you to better capture the muscle, blood, and fat that characterizes real meat. 

    These steaks are expected to be available at high-end European restaurants before the end of the year … Would you try one?

    Perhaps the most important question, if you could eat a steak that didn't come from a cow, but you couldn't taste the difference, would you be willing to switch?

    At some point, I think it is likely for practical sustainability issues.

    We live in interesting times!