Ideas

  • A Few Notes from a Trip to Israel

    My wife and I just got back from Israel.  We were there to see my son Zachary play Rugby for Team USA in an International Tournament.
     
    220724 Rugby Tournament in Israel
     
    I feel like I need a vacation after this trip.  There were so many things to do and see.
     
    Israel is smaller than the smallest state in America … Yet, consider its importance in the modern world (for example, by looking at the density of its holy sites, historical attractions, technological innovations, Nobel Prize winners, hostile borders, and military presence).
     
    It was fascinating how so many religions consider this the Holy Land.  Here is a photo I took of the Wailing Wall and the Dome of the Rock in the Old City of Jerusalem.
     
    220724 Old City of Jerusalem
     
    It’s easy to feel closer to “something” while here.
     
    Almost everything we saw in Israel is a testament to determination, ingenuity, and faith!
     
    With that said, I started to think about how difficult it was to conceive of many of the things they built (considering how difficult it would be to execute or actually build them in the desert, without electricity, etc.). Many of the sites we visited took decades to build … but have lasted for thousands of years.  Examples include the Fortress at Masada, the Wailing Wall, and the Port of Caesaria.  In my mind, I compare these moonshots to many of our current big, hairy, audacious goals (like reading and writing our DNA, autonomous artificial intelligence, or space exploration).
     
    Technologies might change, but human nature has remained surprisingly consistent throughout time.
     
    Onwards!

  • Billion … With A B

    Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers. It's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much).

    Here are a couple of ways to help you understand a billion dollars. 

    6a00e5502e47b288330240a4e81813200d-600wi

    via AskOpinion

    Next, let's look at spending over time. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. You can do that for approximately twelve days if you have a million dollars. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. Ignoring the difference between net worth and cash, Jeff Bezos could spend $9M per day for over 31 years.

    If you make $100K a year, you can earn $1 million in 10 years. At the same rate, it would take you 10,000 years to make $1 billion.

    Here is an example framed around spending money.  Imagine that someone making $50K a year decides to buy a laptop, a car, and a house. Now we're going to make a relative comparison of the cost of those items for people making a lot more than $50K per year.  To do this, we'll shrink the cost of the price of those items (to see the relative cost-to-income ratio). For a millionaire, a laptop might cost the equivalent of $100 dollars, a Porsche would cost $3,000 dollars, and a house would cost $25,000. Now, let's say you're Mike Bloomberg, and you're worth $60B. A laptop's relative cost would be pennies, a Porsche's relative cost would be less than 60 cents, and a mansion's relative cost would be around $500 dollars. You could have everything you ever wanted for a minute fraction of your wealth. 

    For a different perspective, here's an interesting visualization from informationisbeautiful. It shows various examples of things worth billions of dollars – including the personal wealth of several billionaires. 

    IIB-Billions-2022-IIB-1276x825x2@2x-1via informationisbeautiful

    Okay, last one before I show a video … 

    Let's try explaining the concept of a Billion through time. Fifty thousand seconds is just under 14 hours. A million seconds was 11 days ago. A billion seconds ago from today? 1990. Pretty crazy. 

    Here's a video from the 1970s that helps you understand scale through the power of tens – and an exploration of our universe.

     

    Hope you enjoyed this.  Let me know what you think.

  • First Photos From the Webb Telescope

    The Hubble Telescope was conceived of in the 1940s, but launched in 1990. It revolutionized our ability to see the complexities of the universe. 

    Now, the Webb Telescope is taking it to the next level. 

    220712092620-04-james-webb-telescope-first-images-0712-carina-nebula-super-169via NASA

    The picture above shows the "Cosmic Cliffs," which is actually the edge of a young Nebula called Carina. 

    Below, is a picture of a cluster of galaxies called Stephan's Quintet. 

    220712092616-03-james-webb-telescope-first-images-0712-stephans-quintet-super-169via NASA

    Not only does this help us see far away systems that we've never seen before, but it also provides detail to the things we have seen.

    First, bring order to chaos …. Then, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  With that in mind, I'm excited to see how this drives the future of science. 

    Here's a brief video from Neil Degrasse Tyson on the new telescope. 

     

    via NBC News

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 17th, 2022

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Reinventing The Wheel

    When I think about the invention of the wheel, I think about cavemen (even though I know that cavemen did not invent the wheel).

    Lots of significant inventions predated the wheel by thousands of years.  For example, woven cloth, rope, baskets, boats, and even the flute were all invented before the wheel.

    While simple, the wheel worked well (and still does).  Consequently, the phrase "reinventing the wheel" often is used derogatorily to depict needless or inefficient efforts.

    But how does that compare to sliced bread (which was also a pretty significant invention)?

    Despite being a hallmark of innovation, it still took more than 300 years for the wheel to be used for travel.  With a bit more analysis, it makes sense. In order to use a wheel for travel, it needs an axle, and it needs to be durable, and loadbearing, requiring relatively advanced woodworking and engineering. 

    2014-innovatie-stenentijdperk

    All the aforementioned products created before the wheel (except for the flute) were necessary for survival.  That's why they came first.

    As new problems arose, so did new solutions.

    Necessity is the mother of invention. 

    Unpacking that phrase is a good reminder that inventions (and innovation) are often solution-centric. 

    Too many entrepreneurs are attracted to an idea because it sounds cool. They get attracted to their ideas and neglect their ideal customer's actual needs. You see it often with people slapping "AI" on to their product and pretending it's more helpful. 

    If you want to be disruptive, cool isn't enough. Your invention has to be functional, and it has to fix a problem people have (even if they don't know they have it.) The more central the complaint is to their daily lives the better.  

    6a00e5502e47b2883301b7c93a974c970b-600wi

    Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

    Innovation means thinking about and anticipating wants and future needs.

    Your customers may not even need something radically new. Your innovation may be a better application of existing technology or a reframe of best practices. 

    Uber didn't create a new car, they created a new way to get from where you want with existing infrastructure and less friction. Netflix didn't reinvent the movie, they made it easier for you to watch one. 

    As an entrepreneur, the trick is build for human nature (meaning, give people what they crave or eliminate the constraint they are trying to avoid) rather than the cool new tech that you are excited about.  

    Human nature doesn’t seem to change much … Meanwhile, the pace of innovation continues to accelerate. 

    The challenge is to focus on what people want rather than the distraction of possibility.

    It gets harder as more things become possible.

    We certainly live in interesting times!

  • “Earl, Honey”

     

    51TPgTXbtzLMy first wife (and mother of my children) Denise is a smart and talented author.  I still remember the first time she asked me to read an early copy of her work.  She never let me do it again. 

    That being said, she recently released a new book, Earl, Honey.  The book is loosely based on the real story of her family history.  I enjoyed it.  It's a southern coming-of-age story set in the 1920s – which is not my typical genre.  Nevertheless, it's a poignant story with insight into the human condition, and its dramatic realities remind us how good we have it. 

    It's a story she learned, first via her grandmother, long after the events of the book take place.  Those events shaped the lives of generations of her family. 

    It's a tough and heart-wrenching Southern Gothic read that covers incest, domestic abuse, and more.  Check it out. 

    Here's the book's blurb from Amazon:

    "Ever since Pa hit him in the head with the two-by-four, Earl had lived with blinders on. Not real blinders, of course, because that would be foolish. It was his own brain that blinkered him."

    Earl Hahn is slow, the last one to catch on to things. Since the day his father hit him in the head with a 2×4 of loblolly pine, he's struggled with a "thickness in his brain." It takes him longer to make the connections others arrive at easily. When his father is prosecuted for the crime of incest, it feels like deliverance for Earl, his mother Lizzie Belle, and the entire Hahn family. Unfortunately, his father's abhorrent actions are not done exacting a price.

    Everyone in the household will pay for their patriarch's crimes – no one more than Earl.

    So begins a powerful coming-of-age tale about a shy, damaged boy who must overcome unimaginable personal tragedy – both as its victim and its perpetrator. Raw, honest, and filled with heart, Earl, Honey recounts an extraordinary search for redemption amid the perilous world of the 1920s American South.

     

  • Americans’ Top Financial Concern

    It's no secret that the economy is slowing – with high inflation rates and rising interest rates. 

    According to Mohamed El-Erian, from Queens College at Cambridge University, we're experiencing stagflation – which is when inflation is high but growth is slowing significantly. Theoretically, that leads to recession. 

    Inflation-Top-Financial-Concern_Infographicvia visualcapitalist

    The Consumer Price Index has also grown by over 8% in the past year, so the American household is facing financial threats from many angles. 

    Many feel that the Fed has responded disappointingly recently, and their response (or lack thereof) will be a major dictator of whether we enter a recession. 

    I believe that emotions play a role too. When people are afraid, they spend less and hoard what they can to save themselves from an unknown future. They feel anticipatory grief.  And their fear, uncertainty, and doubt ripple through society and our lives. 

    Personally, I've weathered my heaviest storms by sailing toward the future regardless of the threats. An abundance mindset is a powerful tool, and as more people feel confident it becomes a macroeconomic trend with real influence. 

    I'd encourage you to think about what opportunities there are and will be. There are always seasons of change … Winter eventually comes – and goes. Nevertheless, winter can be a great opportunity to plan your next moves and build the infrastructure to sow more seeds in the coming spring. 

    As well, unlike nature, you can personally have springtime while the majority are in winter. We're currently in an A.I. springtime – and I believe that will continue regardless of economic trends. 

    Happy to talk about this … Let me know what you are thinking and feeling!

  • How Bad Were The Markets In The First Half Of 2022?

    The S&P 500 has had its worst first half performance since 1970. 

    Screen Shot 2022-07-01 at 3.30.06 PMvia AXIOS

    But, the S&P's performance isn't the only danger indicator. 

    Screen Shot 2022-07-01 at 3.32.52 PMvia Fortune

    Stocks, bonds, crypto, and more, all saw rapid declines in the first half of 2022. 

    It's hard to pin the blame on any one factor. Was it the result of the actions we took to stabilize the economy during the throes of Covid? Is it the runaway inflation, Russia, or the continuing supply-chain issues? 

    It feels like everything that could go wrong – is going wrong. I mean, how often do stocks and bonds fall at the same time?

    On a positive note, bear markets are often much shorter than bull markets.  Also keep in mind that while global growth is slowing, innovation isn't!

    Don't forget, “Winter” for the economy or a particular industry doesn't have to be winter for you. 

    Onwards! 

  • Companies With The Most Patents in 2021

    Intellectual Property is an important asset class in exponential industries.

    Why?  Because I.P. is both a property right (that increases the owner's tangible and intangible value) and a form of protection.

    They say good fences make good neighbors.  But you are also more willing to work to build an asset if you know that your right to use and profit from it is protected.

    As a result of that thinking, Capitalogix has numerous patents – and we're developing a patent strategy that goes far into the future.  So, it's a topic that's front of mind for me.

    Consequently, this visualization of which companies got the most patents last year caught my eye.  In 2021, the U.S. granted over 327,000 patents.  Here is who got them.

     

    DS-Top-25-Companies-with-the-Most-New-Patents-in-2021-main-Apr20Raul Amoros via VisualCapitalist

    While IBM isn't the public-facing industry leader they once were, they've been topping the list for most patents for the past three decades.  Their patents this past year cover everything from climate change to energies, high-performance computing, and A.I.. 

    What ideas and processes do you have that are worth patenting?  And, what processes are worth not patenting – to keep from prying eyes?

    Food for thought … Onwards!

  • Thoughtful Entrepreneur Podcast

    Recently I had a chance to talk with Josh Elledge on his Thoughtful Entrepreneur podcast. We talked about AI's inevitable influence on trading as well as my experience as an entrepreneur. 

    Getson Wide

    Despite mis-spelling Capital Logix … it's Capitalogix … the conversation we had is worth a listen. 

    Check it out.