Ideas

  • On The Time Value Of Time

    I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.

    That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. 

    Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach,  Abundance 360, and Genius Network.  These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things … and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk.  They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't usually think about, talk about, or even notice.

    Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.

    In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion.  Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world.  Sometimes it alerts you to potentially valuable relationships, opportunities, or gadgets.  And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers. 

    This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.). 

    Time is funny.  Sometimes it seems to fly by … other times, it seems to stand still.  Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes.  One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long. 

    zefrank via YouTube

    The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

    How many amazing vacations do you have left?  How many jaw-dropping moments?  How many fantastic meals?  How many Super Bowls?

    What about time with your parents or older relatives?  It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person … doesn't it become more special?

    For contrast:

    • Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
    • What about being angry at something out of your control?
    • What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?

    In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

    That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further. 

    To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

    • Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
    • Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
    • Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say – "Wow!"
    • Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
    • Experiencing peace and relaxation;
    • Feeling pure joy.

    It's easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left … they take a whole new meaning. 

    TimeisrelativeHow can you maximize the time you have left?  Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

    To start, think about different time frames:

    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
    • What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

     Make those lists … it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

    Seriously, try it.  

    Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose! 

     
     

  • How’d These 2022 Predictions Fair?

    As we brought in 2022, I asked the question:

    What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

    I proceeded to share visualcapitalist's 2022 predictions: 

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    via visualcapitalist

    Well, there was undoubtedly increased volatility. 

    While the whole board isn't correct, there's a surprising amount of prediction accuracy. On some level, predictions benefit from being generally vague. Also, many of the predictions that may not seem as accurate "today" seemed more accurate at some point this year. For example, we heard a lot about NFTs in the first half of the year, and while Big Tech is currently laying off employees, there was massive growth this year. 

    What are you surprised they got right? In what areas were the predictions most off-base? Why?

    And, of course, what are your mega-trend predictions for 2023?

    Interesting stuff! 

  • What Year Is It?

    It is officially 2023 …  new year – and a new set of opportunities. 

    But that's only based on the Gregorian calendar. Those of you that have followed me for a while know I often go to Asia for Chinese New Year (Gong Xi Fa Cai!) … but that's also only one of many New Years. 

    While the following chart is a day late (and thus, a year out-of-date from a Gregorian perspective), it is a handy little guide for knowing what year it is. Check it out. 

    IMG_9728 Like most things, time is relative. It can seem to go fast, it can seem to go slow … sometimes it seems like it stands still. It's a matter of perspective. As we just saw, so is the calculation of what year it is. But, so too is the perspective of what you pay attention to, what you make it mean, and what you choose to do. There's no absolute "right" – only a seemingly endless stream of choices and opportunities.

    I hope you had a productive and happy 2022 – and an even better 2023. 

    Onwards!

  • The Twelve Days of Christmas …

    Most people know the song about the 12 Days of Christmas, but here's an interesting visualization of what presents were gifted by "their true love." 

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    via Neil R Kaye

     

    I don't know about you … but that's a ton of birds. Probably too many. Forty gold rings doesn't sound too bad (and less likely to become worthless than the NFTs they thought about substituting here). 

    All together pretty noisy. 

    Hopefully, you bought presents that your partner would actually enjoy. 

  • Merry Chrismakkuh

    Today is Christmas … and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

    For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

    That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

    To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

    Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out – here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

    The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

    Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

    MicrosoftTeams-image (3)

    I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

  • OpenAI’s ChatGPT is Pretty Cool

    One of my go to claims about AI is that it can do almost anything … but it can't do everything. Specific AI systems are becoming incredibly robust. Last year, I wrote an article emphasizing how big of a jump GPT-3 was from past language processors.  I also shared a Seinfeld sketch created by GPT-3 that was so good it was almost unimpressive … it just felt like a Seinfeld sketch. 

    It feels like every week, there's a new breakthrough in pop AI. OpenAI just released ChatGPT (for free) to the public. The promise of ChatGPT is to give a cogent reply to conversational discussions. It can help you code, it can write a poem, can answer your questions, and more. The code it produces is stellar, and it can even create a convincing romantic comedy using characters from various famous shows. It does a lot very well, but it does have some failings. 

    Screen Shot 2022-12-16 at 1.09.55 PM
    ChatGPT via OpenAI

     

    GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. This was impressive enough, but ChatGPT is actually not based on GPT-3 but GPT3.5 an even more robust model that improved on the ability to answer in a way that feels natural. 

    ChatGPT can talk about almost any topic you can think of, and even create prose that feels human; however, it's not perfect yet. 

    Unfortunately, this chatbot fails in many of the same ways as its predecessors. To start, it can present false information as true because it's essentially a "stochastic parrot" basing its answers on statistical regularities in its data sources, not on an actual understanding of the world. As well, a lot of its answers can include meaningless fluff that sounds good but doesn't actually answer the question meaningfully … almost like a high schooler that forgot to read the book before writing an essay. It also can't produce ASCII art despite the advancements in AI art we've recently discussed. 

    Regardless of ChatGPTs faults, it's a very impressive piece of software. It can answer trivia like Google, write poetry and dialogue, it can pretend to engage in philosophic discussion, and it can help you correct your code or improve your writing. 

    Here's a sonnet I had it write about Artificial Intelligence:

    AI, the future's shining light,
    A force that shapes our world anew,
    A source of endless possibility,
    A tool that cuts our burdens in two.

    From language translation to deep learning,
    AI's capabilities are vast and grand,
    It helps us solve problems, find solutions,
    And gives us new ways to understand.

    But with great power comes great responsibility,
    As AI transforms our world and lives,
    We must ensure that it's used ethically,
    That it helps, rather than subverts or deprives.

    So let us embrace this technological marvel,
    And use it wisely, for the common good,
    For AI has the power to unravel
    Our deepest mysteries, as well as hurdles.

     

    It does what it is supposed to do very well. It is much more conversational and robust than previous chatbots. Obviously, it doesn't do everything well, and I doubt a chatbot will any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a step forward … and it will create ripples of progress.

    What do you think?

  • The Rise of the Intangible

    In the past, most profitable companies built or sold some sort of tangible product. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.

    Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets. Here is a chart showing the changing weight of tangible and intangible assets as part of the S&P 500’s total assets between 1975 and 2020.

     

    Ds-tangible-vs-intangible-assets-1

     via visualcapitalist

    By VisualCapitalist’s definition, intangible assets are holdings that don’t carry any physical or financial embodiment. This includes R&D, intellectual property, and computerized information such as data and software. Today, intangibles are worth over $21 trillion.

    With technology becoming more ubiquitous, I think the trend will continue – which makes protecting your intangibles even more important. 

    Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge – so be careful with your trade secrets. 

  • Envisioning A Bigger Future

    Last week, I shared an article about creating your annual plan (and how Capitalogix does it).  This week, I want to talk more high-level about how we create a bigger future for ourselves, and next week I’ll talk about how I translate that bigger future into resolutions and actions. 

    The beginning of a new year is an excellent time for a fresh start.  While it’s always the right time to take the right action, the structure of a year-end is a helpful crutch and force function. 

    We look forward to what we will achieve – even though history says we rarely achieve everything we hope for.  Meanwhile, paradoxically, it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for.  So, Hope!  It may not be a reliable strategy … but it beats the alternative.

    I’m excited about 2023.  Despite the abnormal market, the crazy headlines, and the still volatile political climate, we’re moving toward increased stability. 

    Even though I expect some volatility, we have become more accustomed to handling it (and we’ve become better at transforming its strategic byproducts into strategic benefits).

    On a different topic, think about how much progress we’ve made and how different the “new normal” has become.  For example, think about Zoom and remote work or how quickly our economy migrated online.  On many levels, what we are doing now seemed like science fiction, even just a few years ago.

    We are living in an age of exponential technologies and exponential possibilities.

    I commissioned this image from GapingVoid, to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

     

    How Can It Be Impossible If We're Already Doing It_GapingVoid

     

    Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the foundational keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

    In the spirit of New Year’s Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

    I’m a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a “BHAG”) and taking actions that move you in that direction. 

    I’m also a big fan of Strategic Coach’s Bigger Future exercise.  It is a 25-year planning exercise where you lay out your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy.  One of the keys to this is chunking high enough to name the roles, goals, and strategies you select with timeless language (meaning that the target words hold up even as you pivot and adjust your focus and actions).

    While doing this, I realized that my ideal next chunk of years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond) through collaboration, cooperation, and joint ventures. 

    Once you know your long-term goal, it is relatively easy to plan the steps you need to achieve it.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces successes, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

    Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Bound). 

    Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

    If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal.  This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control for your victory.  This also means you don’t need to tell others about your goal too soon.  Studies show that when you announce your intention to achieve a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of succeeding. 

    It’s okay to misstep, and it’s okay to get stuck – but recognize where you are and what you’ve done … and move forward. 

    Delayed gratification happens when you want something badly, but are not able to get it right away.  The result is often anger or frustration.

    Meanwhile, the mainstream media broadcasts a seemingly non-stop stream of messages screaming for immediate attention and gratification.  The result of that is not good either (for example, it can result in higher rates of obesity, drug abuse, and depression). 

    Don’t be fooled.  Overnight successes are rarely actually overnight successes (for long).

    It’s also important (once you’ve accomplished your goal) to set new goals. 

    Over the next 25 years, there are many people I want to impact – and many goals I want to accomplish.

    It hasn’t always been easy – but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion.  It has been easier because I want what I want.  Make sure you know what you really want … it makes getting it much easier.

    I look forward to you all being a part of it as well.  Here’s to a successful 2023 and an even more successful 2048.  

    Onwards!

  • Another AI Art Gimmick

    There's a new trend of AI-generated profile pictures – using tools like avatar.ai.

    Below are some sample results my son, Zach, got after downloading an iPhone app called Lensa.  The company that makes it also offers a product called Prisma that is worth looking at as well.  He paid $4 within Lensa to generate these AI photos (for context, avatar.ai charges more than 5x as much).  He uploaded 17 photos from different angles (and with different expressions), and the app promised 50 pieces from 4 styles.

    What do you think of the results?  I thought some of them were surprisingly good. 

     

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    Some were not so good … (or at least outside my zone of artistic preferences).

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    After seeing his, I'll admit I got curious and made my own. 

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    To be honest, these apps are still volatile … meaning, sometimes they are good enough to seriously impress – but they also can underwhelm from time to time.  Check out DALL-E for more examples of the dynamic range of possibilities and results.

    Regardless, I am impressed with AI art's progress and momentum.  Recently, generative AI has gotten a lot of hate (along with the hype), nonetheless, people are talking about it (meanwhile AI art is still not as polarizing as Kanye). 

    The reality is, most of these tools still are an elegant use of brute force.  Nonetheless, I am bullish.  Hardware and software are getting better … and when fed more data, generative art depictions get better as well. 

    The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes … but we're still coding the elegance. 

    For more on this topic: 

  • Creating Your Annual Plan

    It is that time of year, again.  We are in the midst of our annual planning for 2023.

    The process is relatively straightforward.  We start by deciding what the company's three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three that represents what they can do to reach the company's big three. From there we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), as well as the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve. 

    The meetings are going well.  There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

    Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues. 

    The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

    I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.

    Thinking About Your Thinking

    The first discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making. 

     

    One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." Basically, it explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you have to deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing". 

    Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something.  Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.

    Chunking Higher

    The second is on how to chunk high enough that you can start from a place of agreement.  Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

    I'll add one more concept for good measure … Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages.  Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

    With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language.  Words can mean different things to different people.  Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

    To summarize these concepts:

    1. Make sure you have a common language
    2. Begin with the end in mind
    3. Start with the highest level of agreement
    4. Make distinctions from there

    Hope that helps.