Ideas

  • A Look At Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies

    Jim Simons is a mathematician and cryptographer who realized that the complex math he used to break codes could help explain financial patterns – and he made billions with those ideas in his notoriously secretive hedge fund firm, Renaissance Technologies. 

    Though he stepped down in 2021, I still think his legacy is fascinating, not just for its impacts on the Hedge Fund industry – but on trading as a whole. 

    He is famous not only for the duration of his success and the size of his results … but also for the way he made his money (with much lower volatility and risk than his peers and competitors). 

    His background is impressive.  Simons taught at Harvard and MIT and worked with the NSA.  Here is a video where he shares some thoughts in a 2015 TED talk interview.  It's worth a watch. 

    TED via YouTube

    Despite advanced math still being a mystery to many,  we rely on it more than ever as the foundation of many exponential technologies.

    The Heart of AI is Still in Humans

    Simons built a team of mathematicians whose motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science (rather than hired guns who could be lured away by money or pure trading quants, biased by the industry).

    This hits on something important. 

    The Heartbeat of AI is Still Human_GapingVoid

    Humans are still important … and companies that pursue exponential thinking and exponential technologies still have to champion integrity, culture, and purpose.

    Better Math is a Competitive Advantage – So is More and Better Data

    We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches and shorter-term approaches to some extent … but the real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data

    – Jim Simons

    On top of his intelligent hiring and novel approach to trading, Jim Simons recognized that an impressive data pipeline – and the technological infrastructure to digest and analyze that data was a moat to competitors. 

    It is hard to have an edge if you use the same process and the same data as your competitors.

    As the flywheels of commerce spin faster, edges will emerge and decay faster.  Finding a solution is only a step in an ongoing process.  

    Robust, reliable, and repeatable innovation at scale is a meaningful competitive advantage.  That implies that idea factories will become as important (if not more so) than factories that produce material products.  Likewise, innovation funnels will become more important than sales funnels. 

    The world changes at the speed of thought … and as technology continues to improve … even faster.

    Onwards!

  • 2023 In Review

    Last week, we asked how markets did in 2023.  This week, I want to highlight some of the significant events that occurred in 2023.   

    Here is a Visual Capitalist infographic to help.

    OC_2023-in-Review_04
    2023 was defined by two major themes, the first being geopolitical strife, and the second being the proliferation of artificial intelligence. 

    What geopolitical strife, you ask?  Seemingly everywhere you looked (from China and Taiwan to Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, or even the happenings in  Britain and the U.S.) … This was an interesting year. 

    Of course, there were other types of significant events, too, like the collapse of several Silicon Valley/Crypto banks. 

    Many of the trends we've seen in 2023 will have aftershocks in 2024.  Still, the only thing constant is change … and it will be interesting to see what changes.  I think we've seen increased caution as a result of the last few years, but I think people are now getting used to the new normal. 

    Do you expect 2024 to be better?

    Time will tell.

    Don't forget the Trump trials and that it is an election year … or that crypto is making a comeback – and AI will only accelerate.

    We live in interesting times!

  • Almost 20 Years Together …

    I met Jennifer in April of 2004.  We got married in January of 2008.  That means we celebrated our 16th Wedding Anniversary this week – and we're nearing 20 years together. 

    EEE02D7B-B8F2-47C0-93B3-6C57B1C51556

    Wow, how time flies!

    On one hand, it seems like it was just yesterday.  On the other hand, portions of that decade seemed to take forever.

    As an entrepreneur, I live in a weird "tense".  For me, the future and the present are often blended.  Meaning, that I imagine the future I want – and then I find the path to create (or manifest) that destiny.  Not surprisingly, some of the things that were easy to imagine were hard to bring into reality (in a reproducible, efficient, and effective manner or process) … And these things seem to take forever.  

    Other things (like relationships or the growth and maturation of my kids) seemed to happen in the blink of an eye.

    I consciously try to be more mindful and grateful for the progress (and even the minor moments, wins, or curiosities) before me.  The truth is that if you fail to notice them, you don't experience them.

    Here is to experiencing all that you need or want … and I hope the rest serves as raw material, learning, or fuel to get you there faster.

    Onwards!

  • How’d Markets Do In 2023?

    The Market is not the Economy.  I know it, but it feels like it to many people … especially in an election year.

    I still think about the often-quoted quip “It’s the economy, stupid” – coined by James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 U.S. presidential election against incumbent George H. W. Bush.

    2022 was the worst year for the U.S. stock market since the 2008 financial crisis.

    2023 was much better, but much of the gains came in concentrated sectors.  

    To help you get a sense of 2023 returns, VisualCapitalist put together a few helpful infographics.

    First, the S&P had a stellar year, with the S&P 500 up 20.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up almost 40%. 

     

    SP-500-Sector-Returns-2023_Site

    via Visualcapitalist

    Overall, markets improved, which is unsurprising after the year we had in 2022.  With Energy seeing such a massive boom last year, it recessed a little, but real estate and technology both saw strong gains. 

    Here is a more global look at return by asset class.

    Asset-Class-Returns-2023_Site

    via Visualcapitalist

    Japan saw significant growth, partly driven by China’s Real Estate issues. 

    Oil, commodities, and Chinese equities all lost, but that loss in oil and commodities could be driven by China’s woes. 

    In 2022, I said it was unlikely that the trends would continue into 2023, which wasn’t much of a prediction …

    On one level, I try not to think about or predict markets, because I know better.  On the other hand, it is an election year, and my opinion matters as a proxy for what people like me think or feel in an election year.  So, with that in mind, I predict that we see a brief market correction blamed on various geopolitical instabilities and partisan weaknesses, followed by a long and steady push higher as we approach the November elections.

    What do you expect for 2024?

    Do you think the continued investment into generative AI will impact these trends?

  • The Time You Have Left …

    I recently asked How Long Do You Have Left?

    As I wrote that article, I was reminded of my TEDx talk on my father's passing. 

    Time Flies – My Dad Would Have Been 77 | Capitalogix

    In finance, the "time value of money" refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money can vary over time (meaning, money today might have a different purchasing power than money later). This is partly because money's future value might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, inflation accrued, etc.).

    A similar calculation applies to life … or living.

    Live Like You Only Have a Year Left.

    During the last part of my Dad's life, I think he would have done almost anything for a little more time.

    Things that used to be unimportant, or even mildly irritating, took on increased importance. For example, a dinner together became almost a sacred event; a kiss goodnight was truly heart-felt; and saying good-bye meant something … because it could be the last time.

    Nevertheless, as a result of that focus, he took more life out of that time.

    Shouldn't we do the same thing?  Think about it … We are never going to be younger than we are, right now.  We are never going to have more time to fix a big mistake.  Isn't it likely that the time value of your life, is worth maximizing?

    If you realize that your time is worth more than it ever will be, what can you do differently now to get the most out of it?

    For another impactful view of life, here's a great video on how you spend the time in your life – visualized using jelly beans. I think it's pretty powerful and worth watching. 

     

    Ze Frank (via YouTube)

     

    So, if (after accounting for sleep, eating, work, commute, TV, chores, and more) an average person only gets 2,740 days to do what they want … those days are precious. That's less than 8 years of "free time" for you to make the most of. 

    Based on the demographics of who's likely reading this, you may have half that time (or a fourth).

    What are you going to focus on? Making the most money? Helping the most people? Spending the most time with your family? Relaxing? I hope you don't choose worrying. 

    There's never a better time than now to live a life worth living … and only you can decide what that means!

    I'd love to hear what you choose. 

    Best wishes for a Happy Holiday Season … and I hope you spend your time wisely and well in 2024!

  • Happy New Year!

    I love planning for the new year – both personally and professionally.  To read about my professional planning, check out this article. 

    I've always been a big-picture person, so I tend to think in 5, 10, and 20-year increments … but thinking about the coming year is helpful, too.

    I think about it a bit like using a map.  Even if you know your intended destination, you still have to start with 'where you are' to figure out the best way to get there.

    There are seemingly infinite potential paths … but motion in a direction isn't really "progress" if it doesn't take you towards your desired destination.

    At midnight tonight, it'll be 2024.  I know a new year isn't really a blank slate, but I've always enjoyed the symbolism.  So, I thought I'd revisit how I set New Year's resolutions. 

    Future

    To start with, resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen.  It's one thing to hope that something magically falls in your lap; it's another to want to do the work. 

    With that being said, here are some tips. 

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on Evidence of Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

    Before I got back into my health, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight."  Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translates that to something a tad more positive, yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital, and to live a healthy lifestyle."

    Blah, blah … They are just words.  What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable.  How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner."  OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do.  I can do better than that.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques you can use to set empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum.  In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully.  The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends.  However, to do those things, I must find better ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist.  The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables).  My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports.  I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and who'd have thunk it, but being the CEO of a startup is stressful.  The good news: none of those things matter … and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles.  But most obstacles are surmountable – with a big enough WHY, I'll even start to eat vegetables.  Instead of dwelling on the limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions instead.  They are beacons marking the way.

    How do you do it?  To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch or do basic calisthenics on days that I do not go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack if I'm hungry between meals.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy new bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
    • I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do.  Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow a routine.  So, here's another tip … make your routine better.  Here are some examples of things you could do to make being healthier happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).  If Doritos aren't in your house, it's hard to eat them on any regular basis. 
    • When you do snack, don't keep them near you.  Make yourself get up to get them.  That'll make it harder for you to binge. 
    • Enjoy listening to music, audiobooks, or podcasts during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea.  Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits.  What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference?  Which things can you automate or outsource?

    For two books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg and Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy. 

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey.  Instead of tracking how far you have to go … notice how far you've come.  Utilize an internal locus of control.  It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility.  You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind.  That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are … they all count, as long as you know that you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness.  These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation.  The principles are:

    1. First, figure out what you want and why it is important to you.  Only focus on the few things that are actually important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do, right now, which moves you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy.  Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth, plan forward, but measure backward.  Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – it's what we want, why it's important to us, and a basic strategy to get there.  Then, we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision.  Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) so they know where to spend their time, and what milestones tell them they're on the right track.

    It isn't magic, but it works.

    Hope this helped.

  • The World’s Top 25 Defense Companies

    What's happening in the Middle East with the Israel-Hamas war is incredibly complicated and polarizing.  On top of the long history, partisan interpretations, chronic conflict, and acute suffering, you're seeing propaganda being used at a scale beyond what we've seen before. 

    Technology is a big driver of misinformation – and what is happening now provides an early warning of what's to come in future wars and political contests. 

    While the topic of Israel and Hamas is beyond the purview of this blog/newsletter – the impact of war on markets is not.

    My heart is with all impacted, and I'm never rooting for war or the death of innocent civilians. 

    With that said, war seems to be a fact of life.

    The most powerful countries in the world spend billions of dollars on defense a year. 

    In light of this, VisualCapitalist put together a chart identifying the top 25 defense companies in the world.  Many of these have seen massive spikes in price in the past few months.  I was surprised by how many of the companies I didn't recognize.

     Top-25-Defense-Companies_MAINvia VisualCapitalist

    The U.S. unsurprisingly tops the list, with Lockheed and RTX (formerly Raytheon) taking the top two spots. 

    While we don't usually think of some of these companies as defense contractors, Airbus produces multiple drones and transports, Rolls Royce is a supplier of aircraft and naval engines, and Honeywell is actually involved not just in aerospace – but actual space. 

    Understanding where and how companies generate revenue (as well as comprehending the relevant competitive landscapes and cooperative ecosystems) are crucial activities regardless of investment strategy.

    I believe it's easier to predict human nature than it is to predict technology.  There is a reason that new technology often flows into porn, gambling, and military earlier than other areas … the reason is that it's so easy to monetize there. We know opportunity often rises from pain and conflict – so it's still valuable to understand these concepts and figures. 

    Hope that helps. 

  • Entrepreneurship Over The Last 30 Years

    I've been an entrepreneur ever since I can remember.  I sold tadpoles and frogs in elementary school, colored sand terrariums in middle school, stereos and sound systems in high school and college, and I started a database development company in business school. 

    But it wasn't until the early 90s that I made being an entrepreneur my career.

    I quickly realized I needed peer groups and advisors to help take my businesses to the next level. 

    Verne Harnish was one of the first people I found.  I joined the Young Entrepreneur's Organization (but so many of us have lost our "Y" that it's now just called the Entrepreneurs' Organization.) Among many entrepreneurial endeavors, Verne founded EO, Gazelles (a global executive education and coaching company), and Birthing of Giants (now called the Entrepreneurial Masters Program at MIT).  

    I was recently at a party with him in Arizona.  While there, I asked him, "What's changed about entrepreneurship over the last 30 years?".  Here is a short video with his response. 

     

    I was happy to hear that the answer was "Nothing".  While the hot industries, technologies, and players have changed, many of the winning principles are timeless. 

    This is a helpful reminder that, even when innovating, we should focus on what doesn't change – rather than what does. 

    Verne has lots of insights.  I recommend you check out his books – Scaling Up,  Mastering The Rockefeller Habits, and The Greatest Business Decisions of All Time.

    He also offers some great one-page tools that you can download here.

    Good Stuff … Hope it Helps!

  • Artificial Intelligence Meets “Woo-Woo”

    As someone who has been in tech and Artificial Intelligence for over 30 years, my personality and thought processes are centered around facts and reason. 

    With that said, I've always had a soft spot for "arts" over sciences. I appreciate meditation and mindfulness practices.  Unquestionably, I've found that technology helps me do that quicker, better, and with more certainty about the results.

    I am fascinated by both Neuro-Linguistic Programming and Natural Language Processing. 

    That's what made this conversation with Joshua Pellicer so great. 

    Joshua has lots of experience using AI tools and techniques and getting the most from generative AI.

    When I asked him what use cases he was most excited and optimistic about, he answered "Manifestation". 

    That is not what I expected … but it made sense after discussing it. Check it out. 

     

    Manifestation doesn't cause the universe to hand your dreams to you on a golden platter. It does help you maintain a positive mindset and focus on what you want (instead of avoiding what you don't want). 

    ChatGPT (and other similar tools, like Microsoft's Co-Pilot, Google's Bard, Anthropic's Claude, Perplexity, and Quora's Poe can help create a guide and an image to help you better ideate and actualize your dreams. 

    AI is only as good as what you use it for … I think this is an example of a clever and powerful use of generative AI. 

    What do you think?

  • Why You Need Patents …

    I shared an article titled “Who’s The Most Innovative?” a few weeks ago.  That post alluded to the power of patents.  Here, we'll discuss the importance and value of intellectual property in more detail.

    Historically, profitable companies often built or sold some tangible product. Consequently, the Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, landowners, etc.

    However, over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, intellectual property, and other intangible assets.

    As business becomes more digital, you will see an increasing shift towards creating and protecting intellectual property.

    When most people hear that, they probably think about patents.  So, let's start there.

    A patent is property … meaning it is an asset.  Technically, it is a legal right granted by the government to an inventor, giving them the exclusive right to make, use, sell, and import an invention for a limited period (typically 20 years from the filing date) in exchange for public disclosure of the invention. To obtain a patent, an inventor must apply and prove that their invention is new, non-obvious, and useful. In addition, the application process involves disclosing the details of the invention so that others can learn from it.

    Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors … but they’re more than that. They help you create partnerships and an ecosystem. Ecosystems & communities have proven to be the difference between legacy businesses and flash-in-the-pans. It’s the difference between having a product and having a platform.

    Patents add dimensionality and revenue streams.

    Take Tesla. They’re not just in the business of making cars or pushing the proliferation of electronic vehicles. They’re creating a suite of capabilities that are patentable and licensable. In the future, they can license the self-driving capability (because why would someone build it when they can license it?). They can license the ability to update a car’s operating system over the Internet (or by their Starlink Satellite offering). They can also grow into a clean energy business. I’m sure there are other strategic byproducts I’m missing – but you get the idea.

    As they develop these tools and create intellectual property, these same inventions can also become a weighing and measuring tool to find out where people are interested, and identify where people are spending time, money, and energy.  Here is a 60-second video that explains the concept.

     

    Patents make the intangible, tangible.

    They provide a concrete form to innovative concepts, enabling businesses to protect and capitalize on their intellectual property.

    This mindset also creates the infrastructure for change and anticipating future needs, and ensures companies remain adaptable and positioned for long-term sustained growth.

    Getting Started

    When I help people understand how to move forward with AI, the first thing I ask them is “What’s your why?”. I ask that because as soon as you lose sight of why you built your business in the first place, you’re lost.  

    After you understand yourself and your business, you have to understand the industry-wide ecosystems, and where the low-hanging fruit are.

    If you know the low-hanging fruit, your problem statement, your value proposition, and your “why” you’re in a great place to move forward.

    You can use that understanding to stack some easy wins and create bandwidth for larger endeavors.

    The effort-to-impact ratio is a great way to think of how you get started. As you begin thinking about staking ground, you don’t want to do the flashy and cost-intensive stuff first. You want to keep a low profile and start to create walls that will help you in the future.  

    You can use trade secrets, instead of patents, when you don't want to disclose what you do and how you do it.  A trade secret is any non-public information that provides a business with a competitive edge and is subject to reasonable steps taken by the business to keep it secret. The protection of trade secrets does not require registration or disclosure to the public. The information remains protected as long as it is kept secret and continues to provide a competitive advantage.

    Other common forms of intellectual property are copyrights and trademarks.

    You can also use your intellectual property as part of an attraction strategy to find potential partners or collaborators – creating what Dan Sullivan calls the “Freezone Frontier”.

    Final Thoughts

    In essence, patents are not just legal safeguards—they are strategic instruments that can shape the future trajectory of businesses. By embracing a holistic approach that combines legal protection, market intelligence, and strategic foresight, companies can harness the full potential of patents, unlocking new dimensions of success in an ever-evolving business landscape.