Ideas

  • Doing What Works – Insight Happens in an Instant

    080829 kung fu panda poster 200p
    Colin Powell said that "There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure." 

    On the other hand, I've found that insight often happens in an instant. 

    In Kung Fu Panda,
    an overweight,  seemingly uncoordinated panda transforms into the
    unlikely hero of the story who battles evil and saves his village.  The
    turning point?  His teacher recognized that during a quest for a snack,
    nothing could keep our hero from his food.  By integrating that in the
    training routine, a star was born.

    OK, that was a Disney movie.  Maybe you want a real-life example?

    My
    youngest son, Zach, is learning to drive.  Currently, I am working on
    improving his mental map of where he is, where he is going, and how to
    get there.

    My early assessment was that he did not have much of
    a sense of direction.  This was making our time in the car together
    either existentially funny – or stressful – depending on my mood.

    "What
    comes next?" was often followed by a blank look or a head shake. The
    answer to "Which way do we turn?" was a seemingly random "north,"
    "south," "east," "west," "right," or "left" — or sometimes several of
    them.

    Apparently, I was asking the wrong questions.  He has an
    encyclopedic knowledge of where restaurants are, and an uncanny ability
    to get there.  We just have to plot his course with the right
    milestones (fast-food, pizza and ice cream).

    He explained to me, "hey, I just do what works."  And that makes a lot of sense; I'm just glad he found something that works.

  • Doing What Works – Insight Happens in an Instant

    080829 kung fu panda poster 200p
    Colin Powell said that "There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure." 

    On the other hand, I've found that insight often happens in an instant. 

    In Kung Fu Panda,
    an overweight,  seemingly uncoordinated panda transforms into the
    unlikely hero of the story who battles evil and saves his village.  The
    turning point?  His teacher recognized that during a quest for a snack,
    nothing could keep our hero from his food.  By integrating that in the
    training routine, a star was born.

    OK, that was a Disney movie.  Maybe you want a real-life example?

    My
    youngest son, Zach, is learning to drive.  Currently, I am working on
    improving his mental map of where he is, where he is going, and how to
    get there.

    My early assessment was that he did not have much of
    a sense of direction.  This was making our time in the car together
    either existentially funny – or stressful – depending on my mood.

    "What
    comes next?" was often followed by a blank look or a head shake. The
    answer to "Which way do we turn?" was a seemingly random "north,"
    "south," "east," "west," "right," or "left" — or sometimes several of
    them.

    Apparently, I was asking the wrong questions.  He has an
    encyclopedic knowledge of where restaurants are, and an uncanny ability
    to get there.  We just have to plot his course with the right
    milestones (fast-food, pizza and ice cream).

    He explained to me, "hey, I just do what works."  And that makes a lot of sense; I'm just glad he found something that works.

  • New Imaging Tools Will Change How You Access Information

    Photosynth is a new technology from Microsoft. 
    It is software that could transform the way we look at digital images.
    Using still photos (and more), Photosynth builds a breathtaking new
    form of composite image, and lets us navigate them.  This service turns multiple photos of a scene or site — say, an art gallery or a building — into a 3-D scene you can virtually "walk" through on the Web.

    080829 Photosynth of Venice Canals 600p

    Ten-years ago I saw something like this; it was the interface to a game called Myst.  It was ground-breaking at the time.

    In the early phase of adoption for Photosynth, I expect to see things like the 3-D rendering of the Canals in Venice.  It is an easily accessible way to explore the concept.  Soon, however, this could evolve into a new way to hyper-link a wide range of data, meta-data, and business information.

    To get a better idea of what this can do, watch this video from the Ted Conference introducing Photosynth.

    Think about how much the web has already changed how you do research?  Also, because it is so easy to do now, think how much more research you do.  For example, I'm amazed at how often I search Google or Wikipedia. Similarly, I use sites like Digg, Technorati, Regator, and various blogs to find relevant information – even if I didn't know I was looking for it.

    Photosynth is different, and in some ways a step beyond, those research tools.  It is graphics-centric instead of text-centric.  And I can imagine a new type of front-end (a new framework) for accessing information stored virtually anywhere.  Consequently, I expect to see a lot more of this, and things like it.

    Click here to explore some interesting Synths.  You can make your own, too.  For example, here is a link to a Photosynth of, my son, Ben's dorm room at Duke.  It took him about a half-hour to make it.

    Note: you can use arrows on the screen to navigate a Photosynth image; and the "Space Bar" is helpful, too, because it jumps to the next cluster of 3-D images.

  • New Imaging Tools Will Change How You Access Information

    Photosynth is a new technology from Microsoft. 
    It is software that could transform the way we look at digital images.
    Using still photos (and more), Photosynth builds a breathtaking new
    form of composite image, and lets us navigate them.  This service turns multiple photos of a scene or site — say, an art gallery or a building — into a 3-D scene you can virtually "walk" through on the Web.

    080829 Photosynth of Venice Canals 600p

    Ten-years ago I saw something like this; it was the interface to a game called Myst.  It was ground-breaking at the time.

    In the early phase of adoption for Photosynth, I expect to see things like the 3-D rendering of the Canals in Venice.  It is an easily accessible way to explore the concept.  Soon, however, this could evolve into a new way to hyper-link a wide range of data, meta-data, and business information.

    To get a better idea of what this can do, watch this video from the Ted Conference introducing Photosynth.

    Think about how much the web has already changed how you do research?  Also, because it is so easy to do now, think how much more research you do.  For example, I'm amazed at how often I search Google or Wikipedia. Similarly, I use sites like Digg, Technorati, Regator, and various blogs to find relevant information – even if I didn't know I was looking for it.

    Photosynth is different, and in some ways a step beyond, those research tools.  It is graphics-centric instead of text-centric.  And I can imagine a new type of front-end (a new framework) for accessing information stored virtually anywhere.  Consequently, I expect to see a lot more of this, and things like it.

    Click here to explore some interesting Synths.  You can make your own, too.  For example, here is a link to a Photosynth of, my son, Ben's dorm room at Duke.  It took him about a half-hour to make it.

    Note: you can use arrows on the screen to navigate a Photosynth image; and the "Space Bar" is helpful, too, because it jumps to the next cluster of 3-D images.

  • Weekly Commentary through August 22, 2008

    The bullish arguments are that we still have a series of higher lows off the July bottom; and that the market is performing relatively well in the face of negative news.  The bearish arguments are still almost everything else. 

    On Friday, Oil was down 5 percent — great news? Not quite, it was still up on the week.  The Dow was up 200 points — yet still managed to close down for the week.  Also, the NASDAQ closed just below its 200-day moving average.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • With new lows in sight, is Lehman a takeover candidate? (BloggingStocks, Mish, NYTimes)
    • Boone Pickens' Strategy is Water-Tight; form your own town and issue govt bonds (DealBreaker)
    • Supermodels out-perform the Dow (TheStreet.com)
    • Hewlett-Packard's profit climbed 14% to $2.03 billion (WSJ, MarketWatch)
    • Corporate Insider Buying is strong (Hulbert in MarketWatch)
    • Comparison of Bernanke's 2007 and 2008 speeches at Jackson Hole (Infectious Greed)
    • Producer Prices jumped 10% this year, most since 1981 (NYTimes)
    • Goldman Sach's warns of recession fears for half the Globe (UK Telegraph)
    • Barry Ritholtz asks whether we are in a "Psychological Recession"? (Big Picture)
    • Jittery investors redeemed $27 Billion in mutual funds this July (Investment News)
    • Mortgage applications drop to lowest level in eight years (Bizjournals.com)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Apple planning to make 40 Million iPhones in 2009 (BusinessWeek via MacRumors)
    • Microsoft hires Jerry Seinfeld to tout Vista; but is he still "cool"? (Silicon Alley Insider)
    • The dawn of intelligent machines; surpassing human intelligence by 2050? (BBC)
    • Obama's social networking strategy, and who's behind it (MIT Technology Review)
    • Educators urge lowering of drinking age to curb binge drinking (Washington Post)
    • EBay undergoing Amazonification; moving to fixed price sales (BusinessWeek)
    • Great graphic comparing Usain Bolt's record-setting run to history (NYTimes)
    • Crumbling archives of texts get a new lease on life from an anti-spam tool (BBC)

  • Weekly Commentary through August 22, 2008

    The bullish arguments are that we still have a series of higher lows off the July bottom; and that the market is performing relatively well in the face of negative news.  The bearish arguments are still almost everything else. 

    On Friday, Oil was down 5 percent — great news? Not quite, it was still up on the week.  The Dow was up 200 points — yet still managed to close down for the week.  Also, the NASDAQ closed just below its 200-day moving average.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • With new lows in sight, is Lehman a takeover candidate? (BloggingStocks, Mish, NYTimes)
    • Boone Pickens' Strategy is Water-Tight; form your own town and issue govt bonds (DealBreaker)
    • Supermodels out-perform the Dow (TheStreet.com)
    • Hewlett-Packard's profit climbed 14% to $2.03 billion (WSJ, MarketWatch)
    • Corporate Insider Buying is strong (Hulbert in MarketWatch)
    • Comparison of Bernanke's 2007 and 2008 speeches at Jackson Hole (Infectious Greed)
    • Producer Prices jumped 10% this year, most since 1981 (NYTimes)
    • Goldman Sach's warns of recession fears for half the Globe (UK Telegraph)
    • Barry Ritholtz asks whether we are in a "Psychological Recession"? (Big Picture)
    • Jittery investors redeemed $27 Billion in mutual funds this July (Investment News)
    • Mortgage applications drop to lowest level in eight years (Bizjournals.com)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Apple planning to make 40 Million iPhones in 2009 (BusinessWeek via MacRumors)
    • Microsoft hires Jerry Seinfeld to tout Vista; but is he still "cool"? (Silicon Alley Insider)
    • The dawn of intelligent machines; surpassing human intelligence by 2050? (BBC)
    • Obama's social networking strategy, and who's behind it (MIT Technology Review)
    • Educators urge lowering of drinking age to curb binge drinking (Washington Post)
    • EBay undergoing Amazonification; moving to fixed price sales (BusinessWeek)
    • Great graphic comparing Usain Bolt's record-setting run to history (NYTimes)
    • Crumbling archives of texts get a new lease on life from an anti-spam tool (BBC)

  • iPhone App (Hoax?)

    This video is spreading quickly, and though speculation is that it is a mock-up, I found it to be quite compelling.  Somehow I get the sense that it demonstrates a sliver of what's to come.

    My guess is that we will start to see data visualization applications, using similar technologies, that will enable users to access data in powerful new ways.


    iHologram – iPhone application from David OReilly on Vimeo.

  • iPhone App (Hoax?)

    This video is spreading quickly, and though speculation is that it is a mock-up, I found it to be quite compelling.  Somehow I get the sense that it demonstrates a sliver of what's to come.

    My guess is that we will start to see data visualization applications, using similar technologies, that will enable users to access data in powerful new ways.


    iHologram – iPhone application from David OReilly on Vimeo.

  • Weekly Commentary through August 8th 2008

    The Markets are up, but relatively trendless.  Yes the recent lows have held, and I'm seeing higher lows (and that is a bullish sign).  However, recently, the thing to note has been the markets' volatility.  For the Dow, there have been seven 200-point up or down days and two 300-point up days … but in that time, the Dow is only up 36 points. It is tough to hold trades overnight in this type of trading environment.  Going home bullish or bearish hasn't led to peaceful sleep lately.

    Here are some other stats to ponder.  First, 300-point rallies are pretty normal during bear markets (and in the beginning of new bull markets).  Also, It is quite normal to have intermediate term rallies in bear markets that last 2-3 months. The last one lasted 2 months; but only had narrow leadership in the Commodities.  This time the leadership is much broader (most everything, except Commodities).

    Also this week, the Fed held rates steady, and the US Dollar Index now trades above its 50-day and 200-day
    moving averages, signaling a breakout from its five-month trading range.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • IPOs at 5-Year Low, Worldwide (WSJ)
    • Wharton Finance Professor, Jeremy Siegel Calls a Market Bottom (Morningstar)
    • Rackspace IPO loses 20% on first day of trading (WSJ)
    • President Bush: "Wall Street got drunk"…"and now it's got a hangover" (Wall $t. Folly)
    • Does the 4-Year Presidential Cycle have predictive power in the markets? (CXO Advisory)
    • Too many ETFs, too little volume; the weakest are closing (Bespoke)
    • Crisis Averted: Improvisation is one thing, Policy is another (NYTimes)
    • Foreign money buying US properties at deep discounts (NYPost)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Big Brother is watching: Apple shuts down "I Am Rich" Application for iPhones (Download Squad)
    • Innovations show how water-starved countries could solve their food crises (NYTimes)
    • At $6BB spent, Olympic Security is No Game; but they do ride Segways (BusinessWeek)
    • Twitter's micro-blogging success suggests I'm old, because I still don't get it (Fortune)
    • Caffeine Myths De-Bunked; go get a cup of coffee (NYTimes)

  • Weekly Commentary through August 8th 2008

    The Markets are up, but relatively trendless.  Yes the recent lows have held, and I'm seeing higher lows (and that is a bullish sign).  However, recently, the thing to note has been the markets' volatility.  For the Dow, there have been seven 200-point up or down days and two 300-point up days … but in that time, the Dow is only up 36 points. It is tough to hold trades overnight in this type of trading environment.  Going home bullish or bearish hasn't led to peaceful sleep lately.

    Here are some other stats to ponder.  First, 300-point rallies are pretty normal during bear markets (and in the beginning of new bull markets).  Also, It is quite normal to have intermediate term rallies in bear markets that last 2-3 months. The last one lasted 2 months; but only had narrow leadership in the Commodities.  This time the leadership is much broader (most everything, except Commodities).

    Also this week, the Fed held rates steady, and the US Dollar Index now trades above its 50-day and 200-day
    moving averages, signaling a breakout from its five-month trading range.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • IPOs at 5-Year Low, Worldwide (WSJ)
    • Wharton Finance Professor, Jeremy Siegel Calls a Market Bottom (Morningstar)
    • Rackspace IPO loses 20% on first day of trading (WSJ)
    • President Bush: "Wall Street got drunk"…"and now it's got a hangover" (Wall $t. Folly)
    • Does the 4-Year Presidential Cycle have predictive power in the markets? (CXO Advisory)
    • Too many ETFs, too little volume; the weakest are closing (Bespoke)
    • Crisis Averted: Improvisation is one thing, Policy is another (NYTimes)
    • Foreign money buying US properties at deep discounts (NYPost)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Big Brother is watching: Apple shuts down "I Am Rich" Application for iPhones (Download Squad)
    • Innovations show how water-starved countries could solve their food crises (NYTimes)
    • At $6BB spent, Olympic Security is No Game; but they do ride Segways (BusinessWeek)
    • Twitter's micro-blogging success suggests I'm old, because I still don't get it (Fortune)
    • Caffeine Myths De-Bunked; go get a cup of coffee (NYTimes)