Ideas

  • Genius Catalyst Tips

    I enjoy Michael Neill's work.It combines business understanding, common-sense, and a little bit more.

    His Genius Catalyst Tip-of-the-Day is often terrific.  Here is an example of one of them.

    My Favorite Prayer.

    Success means we go to sleep at night knowing that our talents and abilities were used in a way that served others.

        – Marianne Williamson, A Return to Love

    When I was around 25 years old, I had the dubious distinction of being brought in as a "ringer" for a UK baseball team based in South London. The assumption was that as an American, I must be genetically crafted for optimal baseball action. Unfortunately, as I was only an average player when I stopped playing at 14 and this was a team made up of former minor leaguers and die hard British jocks, I turned out to be less of a ringer and more of a dead loss.

    Our team batted first and keen to maximize the advantage I was sure to bring them, I was first up. 80 mile per hour fast balls whizzed by my head, and the highlights of my first at bat were a) not dying and b) actually touching the ball with my bat on one pitch. (The ball promptly ignored my bat and continued unimpeded on its journey to the catcher's mitt).

    Disappointed, the team captain sent me out to right field to lick my wounds and I thought about what I could do to keep the day from being a complete waste. Suddenly, a prayer popped into my head:

    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Not being a particularly religious right fielder, I can't say who or what I was praying to, but the words kept coming like a mantra:

    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Despite my early failure, I knew I must have some relevant gifts for the task at hand. After all, I reasoned, I was a reasonably fast runner. I could throw a ball in something resembling a straight line. And while I was a great proponent of Dr. Arthur Slater-Hammel's 1950 study which "proved" that it is physically impossible for a human being to hit a baseball :-), I did know how to catch one. Suddenly I was excited instead of scared, leaning forward instead of back, and looking for opportunities to put my gifts to use instead of waiting for the chance to hide my inadequacies and run from my failings.

    Within a few minutes of beginning my prayer, my first "chance to serve" came – a line drive over the second baseman's head. I ran in, stuck out my glove, and caught the ball to end the inning. Suddenly I was 'one of the guys' again, and I engaged with the game and my teammates in a whole new way for the rest of the day.

    Although my exploits on the field quickly faded into obscurity, the power of that prayer stayed with me:

    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Here's a few distinctions I've made in living that prayer during the ensuing years…

    1. Give me a chance to serve…

    About a year ago, I was discussing with a friend my goal of increasing the readership of these tips to 100,000 people by the year 2005. "Oh," she replied. "You want to expand your ministry." After gagging on my cappuccino, I spent the next hour arguing that the word 'ministry' was totally inappropriate for what I do.

    When I calmed down, I did some research. Turns out 'ministry' is a wonderful word. While I had always used it to refer to either religious proselytizing or the home of a government organization (like the Ministry of Defense or the lesser known but much more fun Ministry of Sound :-), "ministry" actually refers to the act of ministration – being of service to, aiding, and assisting those around us.

    To expand your ministry simply means to be of more service to those around you, be it through your work, your family, or your faith. Here's how George Bernard Shaw put it:

    "I want to be thoroughly used up when I die, for the harder I work, the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake.
    Life is no "brief candle" to me. It is a sort of splendid torch which I have got hold of for the moment,
    and I want to make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it on to future generations."

    By thinking of our lives as our ministry, we will find ourselves surrounded by opportunities in any moment to be of service. And each opportunity for service brings with it the opportunity for fulfillment, meaning, and joy.

    2. …using the gifts that I have.

    I have always thought and taught that our gifts are those things in your life that come naturally to you, without any undue personal effort or struggle. Another way of identifying your gifts is to think of your strengths – those skills, abilities, or personality traits you exhibit which are so much a part of that you can't remember learning them and can't imagine not having them.

    Martin Seligman is a former president of the American Psychological Association and long-time researcher into depression and learned helplessness who more recently turned his life's work on its head to become a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology. Over the past few years, he and his research team have identified 24 'signature strengths' – core traits that are valuable in their own right but even more so when you put them into action in the service of your highest values and purpose.

    Here are the 24 strengths:

    1. Curiosity/Interest
    in the world

    2. Love of Learning

    3. Judgement/Critical
    thinking/Open-mindedness

    4.
    Ingenuity/Originality/Street Smarts

    5. Social
    Intelligence/Emotional Intelligence

    6. Perspective

    7. Valor/Bravery

    8.Perseverance/Industry/Diligence

    9.
    Integrity/Genuineness/Honesty

    10.
    Kindness/Generosity

    11. Loving/Allowing
    Oneself to be Loved

    12.
    Citizenship/Duty/Teamwork/Loyalty

    13.Fairness/Equality

    14. Leadership

    15. Self-control

    16.
    Prudence/Discretion/Caution

    17. Humility/Modesty

    18. Appreciation of Beauty
    and Excellence

    19. Gratitude

    20.
    Hope/Optimism/Future-Mindedness

    21.Spirituality/Sense
    of Purpose/Faith/Religiousness

    22. Forgiveness/Mercy

    23. Playfulness/Humor

    24.
    Zest/Passion/Enthusiasm

    As Seligman says in the book Authentic Happiness:

    "Herein is my formulation of the good life: Using your signature strengths every day in the main realms of your life to bring abundant gratification and authentic happiness."

    In response to which I would simply say:
    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Today's Experiment:

    1. Go to the Authentic Happiness website, and take the online VIA Strengths Survey. After identifying your top 2 or 3 strengths, look for opportunities to put them to use throughout the week.

    2. Ponder these words from Quaker Faith and Practice – Advices and Queries :

    Live adventurously. When choices arise, do you take the way that offers the fullest opportunity
    for the use of your gifts in the service of God and the community?

    3.  Let your life speak."
    If your life could speak, what would it be saying? What would you like it to say?

    4. Just for fun, try your luck at hitting a 90 mph fastball online by going to the Exploratorium.

    Have fun, learn heaps, and let your life speak!

    ________________________________________

    Visit Genius Catalyst for more great tips!
    His tip is Copyright 2001-2009 – Genius Catalyst / Michael Neill. All Rights Reserved.

  • Genius Catalyst Tips

    I enjoy Michael Neill's work.It combines business understanding, common-sense, and a little bit more.

    His Genius Catalyst Tip-of-the-Day is often terrific.  Here is an example of one of them.

    My Favorite Prayer.

    Success means we go to sleep at night knowing that our talents and abilities were used in a way that served others.

        – Marianne Williamson, A Return to Love

    When I was around 25 years old, I had the dubious distinction of being brought in as a "ringer" for a UK baseball team based in South London. The assumption was that as an American, I must be genetically crafted for optimal baseball action. Unfortunately, as I was only an average player when I stopped playing at 14 and this was a team made up of former minor leaguers and die hard British jocks, I turned out to be less of a ringer and more of a dead loss.

    Our team batted first and keen to maximize the advantage I was sure to bring them, I was first up. 80 mile per hour fast balls whizzed by my head, and the highlights of my first at bat were a) not dying and b) actually touching the ball with my bat on one pitch. (The ball promptly ignored my bat and continued unimpeded on its journey to the catcher's mitt).

    Disappointed, the team captain sent me out to right field to lick my wounds and I thought about what I could do to keep the day from being a complete waste. Suddenly, a prayer popped into my head:

    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Not being a particularly religious right fielder, I can't say who or what I was praying to, but the words kept coming like a mantra:

    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Despite my early failure, I knew I must have some relevant gifts for the task at hand. After all, I reasoned, I was a reasonably fast runner. I could throw a ball in something resembling a straight line. And while I was a great proponent of Dr. Arthur Slater-Hammel's 1950 study which "proved" that it is physically impossible for a human being to hit a baseball :-), I did know how to catch one. Suddenly I was excited instead of scared, leaning forward instead of back, and looking for opportunities to put my gifts to use instead of waiting for the chance to hide my inadequacies and run from my failings.

    Within a few minutes of beginning my prayer, my first "chance to serve" came – a line drive over the second baseman's head. I ran in, stuck out my glove, and caught the ball to end the inning. Suddenly I was 'one of the guys' again, and I engaged with the game and my teammates in a whole new way for the rest of the day.

    Although my exploits on the field quickly faded into obscurity, the power of that prayer stayed with me:

    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Here's a few distinctions I've made in living that prayer during the ensuing years…

    1. Give me a chance to serve…

    About a year ago, I was discussing with a friend my goal of increasing the readership of these tips to 100,000 people by the year 2005. "Oh," she replied. "You want to expand your ministry." After gagging on my cappuccino, I spent the next hour arguing that the word 'ministry' was totally inappropriate for what I do.

    When I calmed down, I did some research. Turns out 'ministry' is a wonderful word. While I had always used it to refer to either religious proselytizing or the home of a government organization (like the Ministry of Defense or the lesser known but much more fun Ministry of Sound :-), "ministry" actually refers to the act of ministration – being of service to, aiding, and assisting those around us.

    To expand your ministry simply means to be of more service to those around you, be it through your work, your family, or your faith. Here's how George Bernard Shaw put it:

    "I want to be thoroughly used up when I die, for the harder I work, the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake.
    Life is no "brief candle" to me. It is a sort of splendid torch which I have got hold of for the moment,
    and I want to make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it on to future generations."

    By thinking of our lives as our ministry, we will find ourselves surrounded by opportunities in any moment to be of service. And each opportunity for service brings with it the opportunity for fulfillment, meaning, and joy.

    2. …using the gifts that I have.

    I have always thought and taught that our gifts are those things in your life that come naturally to you, without any undue personal effort or struggle. Another way of identifying your gifts is to think of your strengths – those skills, abilities, or personality traits you exhibit which are so much a part of that you can't remember learning them and can't imagine not having them.

    Martin Seligman is a former president of the American Psychological Association and long-time researcher into depression and learned helplessness who more recently turned his life's work on its head to become a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology. Over the past few years, he and his research team have identified 24 'signature strengths' – core traits that are valuable in their own right but even more so when you put them into action in the service of your highest values and purpose.

    Here are the 24 strengths:

    1. Curiosity/Interest
    in the world

    2. Love of Learning

    3. Judgement/Critical
    thinking/Open-mindedness

    4.
    Ingenuity/Originality/Street Smarts

    5. Social
    Intelligence/Emotional Intelligence

    6. Perspective

    7. Valor/Bravery

    8.Perseverance/Industry/Diligence

    9.
    Integrity/Genuineness/Honesty

    10.
    Kindness/Generosity

    11. Loving/Allowing
    Oneself to be Loved

    12.
    Citizenship/Duty/Teamwork/Loyalty

    13.Fairness/Equality

    14. Leadership

    15. Self-control

    16.
    Prudence/Discretion/Caution

    17. Humility/Modesty

    18. Appreciation of Beauty
    and Excellence

    19. Gratitude

    20.
    Hope/Optimism/Future-Mindedness

    21.Spirituality/Sense
    of Purpose/Faith/Religiousness

    22. Forgiveness/Mercy

    23. Playfulness/Humor

    24.
    Zest/Passion/Enthusiasm

    As Seligman says in the book Authentic Happiness:

    "Herein is my formulation of the good life: Using your signature strengths every day in the main realms of your life to bring abundant gratification and authentic happiness."

    In response to which I would simply say:
    Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

    Today's Experiment:

    1. Go to the Authentic Happiness website, and take the online VIA Strengths Survey. After identifying your top 2 or 3 strengths, look for opportunities to put them to use throughout the week.

    2. Ponder these words from Quaker Faith and Practice – Advices and Queries :

    Live adventurously. When choices arise, do you take the way that offers the fullest opportunity
    for the use of your gifts in the service of God and the community?

    3.  Let your life speak."
    If your life could speak, what would it be saying? What would you like it to say?

    4. Just for fun, try your luck at hitting a 90 mph fastball online by going to the Exploratorium.

    Have fun, learn heaps, and let your life speak!

    ________________________________________

    Visit Genius Catalyst for more great tips!
    His tip is Copyright 2001-2009 – Genius Catalyst / Michael Neill. All Rights Reserved.

  • Conditioning Yourself to Take the Best Next Step

    090711 HMG at the YMCA 250

    Is How You Do Something … How You Do Everything?

    I'm beginning to think so.  To make the point, let me start with a brief story. 

    I was at the gym and getting pretty close to the end of my workout.

    Frankly, I was at a point where being done was more attractive than the option of doing additional exercise.

    Over time I've developed many habits and beliefs that focus on finding best next step or a way to do just a little bit more. So this time, I used reverse-counting to help me finish that workout strong.

    I started with 10 push-ups. I know I can do 10 push-ups, even at the end of a hard workout. Without putting my knees down, I can rest in plank position for a moment or two … then I do nine more push-ups. That has to be easier than 10, right? Then eight more … seven … six. You get the point.

    Each set is a little bit harder than the one before; but mentally I'm prepared for it, and can convince myself that I'm so much closer to the goal.

    So I get to three, and sweat is dripping off my nose, my arms are shaking, and my hips want to sway. Somehow knowing that there's only two more sets, then only one more, allows me to finish.

    That story could have been about creating profitable trading systems, developing a new database, or recovering from a set-back.  It's about finding a way, regardless of external circumstances.

    Finding a Way to Do Just a Little Bit More.

    There are many times that it seems easier to do nothing, or to give up. That's just not my nature. It's not in my "nurture" either.

    My father used to say that the secret to success was getting up. What he meant was that if someone knocked you down 10 times, then the secret to success was getting up 11 times. And if someone knocked you down another time, then the secret was to get up 12 times. There's a lot of truth in that.

    I laugh when I think of all the little things I do that condition me to take the best next step. Here are a few examples of small things that help define that mindset.

    • I never stop reading until I finish a chapter.
    • Also, when I play a strategy game on my iPhone, I never stop until I win.
    • And, when I play a strategy game that I'm good at, I never stop until I achieve a certain score. 

    It doesn't matter if I'm frustrated or tired.  I find a way.  Each, in its own small way, helps condition me to know that I can do anything I commit to.  Taking that a little further, regardless of what happens, my outcome depends most on what I choose to do.

    Sometimes that seems silly, or even a little bit OCD to me. Yet, it serves me.  There's a lot of freedom that comes with knowing that the game's not over until I say it is … or until I win. Likewise, it's comforting to know that there's always a best next step, or at least a different perspective that will create new opportunities and possibilities.

    Nike-just-do-it I to do that in business as well. We focus on the progress we're making, and what that makes possible, rather than how far we are from the ultimate goal. Why? Because as we continue to make progress, the things we shoot for are bigger and farther away. Focusing there would always show a shortfall. Obstacles and set-backs become the raw material for new growth, ideas and strategies.  The trick is getting back up, isn't it?

    Sometimes the best advice is simple. Nike got it right in their ad … Just Do It.

  • Conditioning Yourself to Take the Best Next Step

    090711 HMG at the YMCA 250

    Is How You Do Something … How You Do Everything?

    I'm beginning to think so.  To make the point, let me start with a brief story. 

    I was at the gym and getting pretty close to the end of my workout.

    Frankly, I was at a point where being done was more attractive than the option of doing additional exercise.

    Over time I've developed many habits and beliefs that focus on finding best next step or a way to do just a little bit more. So this time, I used reverse-counting to help me finish that workout strong.

    I started with 10 push-ups. I know I can do 10 push-ups, even at the end of a hard workout. Without putting my knees down, I can rest in plank position for a moment or two … then I do nine more push-ups. That has to be easier than 10, right? Then eight more … seven … six. You get the point.

    Each set is a little bit harder than the one before; but mentally I'm prepared for it, and can convince myself that I'm so much closer to the goal.

    So I get to three, and sweat is dripping off my nose, my arms are shaking, and my hips want to sway. Somehow knowing that there's only two more sets, then only one more, allows me to finish.

    That story could have been about creating profitable trading systems, developing a new database, or recovering from a set-back.  It's about finding a way, regardless of external circumstances.

    Finding a Way to Do Just a Little Bit More.

    There are many times that it seems easier to do nothing, or to give up. That's just not my nature. It's not in my "nurture" either.

    My father used to say that the secret to success was getting up. What he meant was that if someone knocked you down 10 times, then the secret to success was getting up 11 times. And if someone knocked you down another time, then the secret was to get up 12 times. There's a lot of truth in that.

    I laugh when I think of all the little things I do that condition me to take the best next step. Here are a few examples of small things that help define that mindset.

    • I never stop reading until I finish a chapter.
    • Also, when I play a strategy game on my iPhone, I never stop until I win.
    • And, when I play a strategy game that I'm good at, I never stop until I achieve a certain score. 

    It doesn't matter if I'm frustrated or tired.  I find a way.  Each, in its own small way, helps condition me to know that I can do anything I commit to.  Taking that a little further, regardless of what happens, my outcome depends most on what I choose to do.

    Sometimes that seems silly, or even a little bit OCD to me. Yet, it serves me.  There's a lot of freedom that comes with knowing that the game's not over until I say it is … or until I win. Likewise, it's comforting to know that there's always a best next step, or at least a different perspective that will create new opportunities and possibilities.

    Nike-just-do-it I to do that in business as well. We focus on the progress we're making, and what that makes possible, rather than how far we are from the ultimate goal. Why? Because as we continue to make progress, the things we shoot for are bigger and farther away. Focusing there would always show a shortfall. Obstacles and set-backs become the raw material for new growth, ideas and strategies.  The trick is getting back up, isn't it?

    Sometimes the best advice is simple. Nike got it right in their ad … Just Do It.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/12/09

    Obama told the G8 that the "World has Staved Off Economic Disaster." So, it's all good now.  You are safe to jump back in the pool.  If there was still risk, he couldn't have said that in front of world leaders, right?

    Is This the New Normal … Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?

    Here is a chart that shows how volatility has reduced recently.  Putting on my curmudgeon hat for a moment, I remember the old trader's adage that lack of volatility begets volatility.

    090711 Volatility is Down

    That chart whispers "beware the calm before the storm" to me.  Others may see a return to normal.  What do you think?

    A Look At the Markets.

    The markets have given back close to 25% of their recent gains in the last four weeks. In many respects that was a healthy move. The news has been bad enough that I expected a bigger and steeper downswing.

    Also, there's been a lot of talk about the potential of a head and shoulders top. But when you look at a composite of the five U.S. Equity Indices (shown in the bottom-half of the chart, below), we haven't broken the neckline, yet.

    In addition, the 200-day moving average (red line) continues to provide support. If we don't have a sustained break beneath this level, the 200-day moving average will act as support.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

    090711 SP500 and Composite

    With that said, sentiment is getting more bearish, and the move down
    has not created a spike in the VIX. So, again, there are clues that lead me to suspect that we might be witnessing the calm
    before the storm.  Earnings Season is starting; and a move down would trigger the head-and-shoulders topping pattern and the 200-day moving average would become overhead resistance.  And fear would increase … you get the picture.

    Sometimes, the right picture can be worth a thousand words.

    Dow's Dead-Cat Bounce from GuidePostings

    So short-term, a bounce wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction still seems likely.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Businessman Pays $2.1 million for Lunch with Buffet; Banks More (DigitalJournal)
    • 11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours. (USNews)
    • Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends. (Bloomberg)
    • The Dollar's role in the global economy is Safe From the Yuan, for Now (WSJ)
    • Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Arrested Stealing Secret Trading Codes. (StreetInsider)
    • Citadel Sues Firm Linked to Alleged Goldman Software Theft. (FinAlternatives)
    • Mark Cuban on Business Models: Succeed with Free, Die by Free. (BlogMaverick)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/12/09

    Obama told the G8 that the "World has Staved Off Economic Disaster." So, it's all good now.  You are safe to jump back in the pool.  If there was still risk, he couldn't have said that in front of world leaders, right?

    Is This the New Normal … Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?

    Here is a chart that shows how volatility has reduced recently.  Putting on my curmudgeon hat for a moment, I remember the old trader's adage that lack of volatility begets volatility.

    090711 Volatility is Down

    That chart whispers "beware the calm before the storm" to me.  Others may see a return to normal.  What do you think?

    A Look At the Markets.

    The markets have given back close to 25% of their recent gains in the last four weeks. In many respects that was a healthy move. The news has been bad enough that I expected a bigger and steeper downswing.

    Also, there's been a lot of talk about the potential of a head and shoulders top. But when you look at a composite of the five U.S. Equity Indices (shown in the bottom-half of the chart, below), we haven't broken the neckline, yet.

    In addition, the 200-day moving average (red line) continues to provide support. If we don't have a sustained break beneath this level, the 200-day moving average will act as support.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

    090711 SP500 and Composite

    With that said, sentiment is getting more bearish, and the move down
    has not created a spike in the VIX. So, again, there are clues that lead me to suspect that we might be witnessing the calm
    before the storm.  Earnings Season is starting; and a move down would trigger the head-and-shoulders topping pattern and the 200-day moving average would become overhead resistance.  And fear would increase … you get the picture.

    Sometimes, the right picture can be worth a thousand words.

    Dow's Dead-Cat Bounce from GuidePostings

    So short-term, a bounce wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction still seems likely.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Businessman Pays $2.1 million for Lunch with Buffet; Banks More (DigitalJournal)
    • 11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours. (USNews)
    • Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends. (Bloomberg)
    • The Dollar's role in the global economy is Safe From the Yuan, for Now (WSJ)
    • Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Arrested Stealing Secret Trading Codes. (StreetInsider)
    • Citadel Sues Firm Linked to Alleged Goldman Software Theft. (FinAlternatives)
    • Mark Cuban on Business Models: Succeed with Free, Die by Free. (BlogMaverick)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • The Flow of Planning

    090705 Compass I was in Columbus Ohio last week for a series of meetings and strategic planning sessions.

    I love getting away from the business in order to work on the
    business. That means stepping back from day-to-day issues, to look at
    the bigger picture. It also means getting back in-touch with goals and
    intent.

    In a sense, the process acts like a compass, which sets the general direction for the journey.

    In addition, preparing for a series of meetings, like this, is a lot like working on a business plan.

    Personally, I've found that that one of the primary benefits of
    creating a business plan has almost nothing to do with the plan itself.
    Working on the plan, immersing yourself in the ideas and possibilities,
    and ultimately choosing what stays-in, versus what's filtered out …
    there is magic in that.

    Yes, the plan is important.  But it is the planning that takes you from thinking … to feeling … to knowing.  That's where the real benefit of business planning comes from.

    A Good Sign.

    Sometimes you hear a question and it takes the air out of an idea.
    Other times a question helps you make a new distinction or consider an
    alternate and better course of action.

    At our planning sessions, last week, there was a lot of those
    pushing, pulling, probing, and deep thought … yet it built momentum. 
    So, I felt like we were on the right track.

    How to Tell You Are On the Right Track.

    I
    tend to be analytical.  Yet, over time, I've come to believe that one
    of the best tools to measure whether you are on the right track is how
    you feel.

    Have you ever gotten a phone call from someone, and when you saw or heard that it was from them, you wilted?  In
    contrast, have you ever become more animated and energized while
    interacting with someone else?  It is easy to recognize the difference. 

    Each person has different thoughts, people, or situations that trigger these positive and negative states.

    In sports, this positive state is often referred to as being "in-the-Zone".  It is also called "Flow". 
    It happens when someone is fully immersed in what they are doing, and
    has a feeling of energized focus or awareness, full involvement, and
    success in the process of their activity.

    090705 Challenge_vs_skill

    Being in Flow feels good. On some level, when you are in Flow, you know you're on the right track.

  • The Flow of Planning

    090705 Compass I was in Columbus Ohio last week for a series of meetings and strategic planning sessions.

    I love getting away from the business in order to work on the
    business. That means stepping back from day-to-day issues, to look at
    the bigger picture. It also means getting back in-touch with goals and
    intent.

    In a sense, the process acts like a compass, which sets the general direction for the journey.

    In addition, preparing for a series of meetings, like this, is a lot like working on a business plan.

    Personally, I've found that that one of the primary benefits of
    creating a business plan has almost nothing to do with the plan itself.
    Working on the plan, immersing yourself in the ideas and possibilities,
    and ultimately choosing what stays-in, versus what's filtered out …
    there is magic in that.

    Yes, the plan is important.  But it is the planning that takes you from thinking … to feeling … to knowing.  That's where the real benefit of business planning comes from.

    A Good Sign.

    Sometimes you hear a question and it takes the air out of an idea.
    Other times a question helps you make a new distinction or consider an
    alternate and better course of action.

    At our planning sessions, last week, there was a lot of those
    pushing, pulling, probing, and deep thought … yet it built momentum. 
    So, I felt like we were on the right track.

    How to Tell You Are On the Right Track.

    I
    tend to be analytical.  Yet, over time, I've come to believe that one
    of the best tools to measure whether you are on the right track is how
    you feel.

    Have you ever gotten a phone call from someone, and when you saw or heard that it was from them, you wilted?  In
    contrast, have you ever become more animated and energized while
    interacting with someone else?  It is easy to recognize the difference. 

    Each person has different thoughts, people, or situations that trigger these positive and negative states.

    In sports, this positive state is often referred to as being "in-the-Zone".  It is also called "Flow". 
    It happens when someone is fully immersed in what they are doing, and
    has a feeling of energized focus or awareness, full involvement, and
    success in the process of their activity.

    090705 Challenge_vs_skill

    Being in Flow feels good. On some level, when you are in Flow, you know you're on the right track.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 07/05/09

    Another grim report on unemployment casts doubt on the likelihood of a quick economic recovery. 

    The unemployment rate edged up to 9.5 percent in June, to its highest level in 26 years. The bigger problem is that many analysts expect joblessness to get worse in the coming months.

    A Different Perspective on the Job Market:

    Here is a chart that caught my eye on Barry Ritholtz's blog.  It shows the increased competition for jobs.  There are now close to six unemployed people for each available position.

    090705 Unemployed Per Job-Opening Chart

    The point is that as fewer jobs become available, it will get harder for normal citizens to obtain them.  The cycle continues because loss of jobs means reduced spending … which means tighter margins. 

    So, this next chart doesn't surprise me.  It shows that in addition to an increase in unemployment, there was also a decrease in hours worked.  Simply counting the number of people who lost their jobs misses something important. Lots of people have lost part of their jobs through a variety of techniques like furloughs and thirty-hour work weeks.

    090705 Not Just Fewer Jobs - Less Hours Worked

    Notice how consistent the decline in aggregate hours worked (purple line) has been over recent months. It is something to watch.

    For a longer perspective, here is a chart comparing the monthly national unemployment rates since 1948.  Click the chart to see the interactive version on WSJ.com.

    090705 Unemployment Since 1948

    Market Chart:

    How will all that play-out in the Markets?  So far, the markets have held-up nicely.  I've been seeing more negative divergences and selling on down days … and less positive momentum and market breadth. But price is the primary indicator, and it has stayed above support.

    Here is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.  I marked a head and shoulders pattern that many traders are watching.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

    090705 Head and Shoulders Pattern on Dow Daily

    Short-term, a bounce still wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction seems likely.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Investors are Now Racing Toward Volatile Areas of the Market. (NYTimes)
    • Another Indicator Predicts Economic Recovery is Near. What do you think? (MJPerry)
    • A China Stock Bubble: IPO Mania Dangerous in Recession. (Time and Economist)
    • Why China Hates the U.S. and What It Means for Your Portfolio. (Motley Fool)
    • A Run on an Amish Bank Teaches the Risks of Modernity. (WSJ)
    • The Fed's Delicate Balancing Act On the Complex & Slow Road to Recovery. (SmartMoney)
    • How GE Reaped Bailout Dollars Even Though It Wasn't a Bank. (TDB)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Michael Jackson Insider on What Really Killed Him. (TDB)
    • Monkey 'Stock Market' Prone to Fluctuations Too. (NewScientist)
    • Calculating Consumer Happiness at Any Price. (NYTimes)
    • A Glimpse at the Future: Domestic Robots With A Taste For Flesh. (NewScientist)
    • Scientists Create First Electronic Quantum Processor. (PhysOrg)
    • Tomato Pill's new form of Lycopene Beats Heart Disease. (BBC)

    • Is an Ugly Baby Harder to Love? (Time)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
  • Capitalogix Commentary 06/28/09

    Rolling Stone is not where I typically read insightful Market commentary.  Nonetheless, Matt Taibbi wrote a piece for them you should read.  The article is called "The Great American Bubble Machine", and it details Goldman Sachs' role in engineering every major market manipulation since the Great Depression.  Take a look.

    0906028 Goldman Sachs Bubble Machine Article Link

    Also, here is a link to the text of the article.

    Other Asset Classes.

    This chart caught my eye.  It shows the top-ten residential real-estate markets, and let's just say none of them are around here.  Click the picture to go to Reiden's site for more data.

    0906028 Most Expensive Real Estate 

    I guess Goldman Sachs isn't the only one who can create Bubbles. 

    Also, I'm hearing a lot more rumblings from experienced traders about buying a little gold.  Richard Russell, of Dow Theory fame, says: “The way the world is going, ‘gold will be the last man standing’. Gold will be wanted because unlike everything else, gold can not go bankrupt. Gold has no debt against it, gold is not the product of some nation’s central bank. Gold is pure intrinsic wealth. It needs no nation to guarantee it. Gold is outside the paper system.”

    Confidence In the U.S. Equity Markets.

    The VIX closed at 25.93 today, down more than 16% from Monday’s close of 31.17 to the lowest closing level since September 12, 2008 – the last trading day before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced.  A rise in volatility from these levels would likely be bearish.

    0906028 VIX At Recent Lows

    Bespoke notes that the Michigan Confidence joins the growing number of indicators that are now at or better than Pre-Lehman levels.  It is currently at its highest level since January 2008.  This month's reading is also the fourth consecutive month-over-month increase in confidence.  

    Market Metaphor?

    This NYC hotel claims that one of its rooms is not only a tourist attraction, but is “art”. Art that starts to smell bad in warm weather.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Why Isn't The Stimulus Stimulating? Seems Like Speed Will Matter. (Forbes)
    • World Economy Tracking or Doing Worse than the Great Depression. (VoxEU)
    • Morgan Stanley Topples Goldman as M&A Leader this Year. (NYPost)
    • List of Banks with the Biggest Profits and Losses Last Year. (Economist)
    • Tech Sector Strength May Be Weaker than Claimed. (Barrons)
    • Why Computers Can't – Yet – Consistently Beat the Market. (Forbes)
    • Michael Jakson's Debt, Private Equity & His Hedge Fund Backer. (FinAlternatives)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • What Is Your Favorite Michael Jackson Song? Interactive Retrospective. (NYTimes)
    • Windows 7 at Half Price: Why is Microsoft Offering Discounts? (InformationWeek)
    • New Defense Industry Niche: Researchers Developing Tiny Flying Spies. (Forbes)
    • New Book on the Secret History of the National Security Agency. (USNews)
    • Super-Intelligence: When Will Computers Be Smarter Than Us? (Forbes)
    • Google Voice: Smarter Phone Calls for Your Smart Phones. (NewScientist)
    • Can You Get Fit in Six Minutes a Week? The Research is Promising. (NYTimes)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.