Ideas

  • S&P 500 Earnings in Ounces of Gold

    One positive for the stock market has been the dramatic rise in earnings following the financial crisis.

    Most business students can tell you that stock prices supposedly represent the present value of the future earnings stream.

    However, one reason for the current earnings spike has been the fact that the US dollar has effectively been devalued.

    Slash the yardstick by which financial performance is measured (e.g. dollars to dollarettes) and relative performance will appear more positive.

    For example, when corporate earnings are measured in dollars, an investor will find that earnings are currently greater than what was achieved during the dot-com bubble and fast approaching the record levels that were achieved at the tail-end of the credit bubble. However, when measured in another world currency such as gold (see the chart below), the earnings picture isn’t quite so rosy.

     

    110724 SP500 Earnings Priced in Gold  Click here for more Chart of the Day insights.

    This chart illustrates how S&P 500 earnings measured in ounces of gold actually peaked back in 2001, and has moved within the confines of a dramatic downtrend ever since.

    From this perspective, the historic spike in earnings that began in the summer of 2009 doesn’t look all that historic, with current earnings coming in at a level that is significantly lower than what occurred at the conclusion of the dot-com and credit bubbles.

    Here is a quote from Richard Russell, one of the well-known market commentators and Dow Theory experts: 

    "Gold will be around, gold will be money when the dollar and the euro and the yuan and the ringgitt are mere memories."

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  • S&P 500 Earnings in Ounces of Gold

    One positive for the stock market has been the dramatic rise in earnings following the financial crisis.

    Most business students can tell you that stock prices supposedly represent the present value of the future earnings stream.

    However, one reason for the current earnings spike has been the fact that the US dollar has effectively been devalued.

    Slash the yardstick by which financial performance is measured (e.g. dollars to dollarettes) and relative performance will appear more positive.

    For example, when corporate earnings are measured in dollars, an investor will find that earnings are currently greater than what was achieved during the dot-com bubble and fast approaching the record levels that were achieved at the tail-end of the credit bubble. However, when measured in another world currency such as gold (see the chart below), the earnings picture isn’t quite so rosy.

     

    110724 SP500 Earnings Priced in Gold  Click here for more Chart of the Day insights.

    This chart illustrates how S&P 500 earnings measured in ounces of gold actually peaked back in 2001, and has moved within the confines of a dramatic downtrend ever since.

    From this perspective, the historic spike in earnings that began in the summer of 2009 doesn’t look all that historic, with current earnings coming in at a level that is significantly lower than what occurred at the conclusion of the dot-com and credit bubbles.

    Here is a quote from Richard Russell, one of the well-known market commentators and Dow Theory experts: 

    "Gold will be around, gold will be money when the dollar and the euro and the yuan and the ringgitt are mere memories."

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  • Do You Want to See What Fourteen Trillion Dollars Looks Like?

    Let's start with One Hundred Dollars.  A stack of them makes Ten Thousand Dollars.

     

    110725 Ten Thousand Dollars 
    So far, so good.

    Next, let's put One Hundred Million in perspective. 

    I don't know about you, but that still seems like a lot of money to me.  Nonetheless, it fits nicely on a military-standard pallet.

     

    110725 One Hundred Million Dollars 

    The U.S. Deficit is approaching Fifteen Trillion Dollars.  The image below will help you visualize that.  The scope and scale of that amount of cash is a surprising.

     

    110725 Fifteen Trillion Dollars 
     To see more, click here to go to a site called WTFNOWAY.

    And, if you want to see an updated, interactive version of the U.S. Debt Clock, just click the image below.  It is worth spending a little time to watch the pace the numbers turn.

     

    110724 US Debt Clock 
    Surprised?

     

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  • Do You Want to See What Fourteen Trillion Dollars Looks Like?

    Let's start with One Hundred Dollars.  A stack of them makes Ten Thousand Dollars.

     

    110725 Ten Thousand Dollars 
    So far, so good.

    Next, let's put One Hundred Million in perspective. 

    I don't know about you, but that still seems like a lot of money to me.  Nonetheless, it fits nicely on a military-standard pallet.

     

    110725 One Hundred Million Dollars 

    The U.S. Deficit is approaching Fifteen Trillion Dollars.  The image below will help you visualize that.  The scope and scale of that amount of cash is a surprising.

     

    110725 Fifteen Trillion Dollars 
     To see more, click here to go to a site called WTFNOWAY.

    And, if you want to see an updated, interactive version of the U.S. Debt Clock, just click the image below.  It is worth spending a little time to watch the pace the numbers turn.

     

    110724 US Debt Clock 
    Surprised?

     

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  • Leadership Lessons of a Shirtless Dancing Guy

    You don't need a formal setting to learn about leadership.

    Derek Sivers gave this 3-minute talk at a TED conference.

    You can watch a movement happen, start to finish, in under 3 minutes, while he points-out some of the lessons.

     

     
     
    A leader needs the guts to stand alone and look ridiculous. But what he's doing is so simple, it's almost instructional. This is key. You must be easy to follow!

    Now comes the first follower with a crucial role: he publicly shows everyone how to follow. Notice the leader embraces him as an equal, so it's not about the leader anymore – it's about them, plural. Notice he's calling to his friends to join in. It takes guts to be a first follower! You stand out and brave ridicule, yourself. Being a first follower is an under-appreciated form of leadership. The first follower transforms a lone nut into a leader. If the leader is the flint, the first follower is the spark that makes the fire.

    The 2nd follower is a turning point: it's proof the first has done well. Now it's not a lone nut, and it's not two nuts. Three is a crowd and a crowd is news.

    A movement must be public. Make sure outsiders see more than just the leader. Everyone needs to see the followers, because new followers emulate followers – not the leader.

    Now here come 2 more, then 3 more. Now we've got momentum. This is the tipping point! Now we've got a movement!

    As more people jump in, it's no longer risky. If they were on the fence before, there's no reason not to join now. They won't be ridiculed, they won't stand out, and they will be part of the in-crowd, if they hurry. Over the next minute you'll see the rest who prefer to be part of the crowd, because eventually they'd be ridiculed for not joining.

    And ladies and gentlemen that is how a movement is made! Let's recap what we learned:

    If you are a version of the shirtless dancing guy, all alone, remember the importance of nurturing your first few followers as equals, making everything clearly about the movement, not you.

    Be public. Be easy to follow!

    But the biggest lesson here – did you catch it?

    Leadership is over-glorified.

    Yes it started with the shirtless guy, and he'll get all the credit, but you saw what really happened:

    It was the first follower that transformed a lone nut into a leader.

    There is no movement without the first follower.

    We're told we all need to be leaders, but that would be really ineffective.

    The best way to make a movement, if you really care, is to courageously follow and show others how to follow.

    When you find a lone nut doing something great, have the guts to be the first person to stand up and join in.

    —

    Original video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA8z7f7a2Pk

    Official transcript at http://sivers.org/ff

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  • Leadership Lessons of a Shirtless Dancing Guy

    You don't need a formal setting to learn about leadership.

    Derek Sivers gave this 3-minute talk at a TED conference.

    You can watch a movement happen, start to finish, in under 3 minutes, while he points-out some of the lessons.

     

     
     
    A leader needs the guts to stand alone and look ridiculous. But what he's doing is so simple, it's almost instructional. This is key. You must be easy to follow!

    Now comes the first follower with a crucial role: he publicly shows everyone how to follow. Notice the leader embraces him as an equal, so it's not about the leader anymore – it's about them, plural. Notice he's calling to his friends to join in. It takes guts to be a first follower! You stand out and brave ridicule, yourself. Being a first follower is an under-appreciated form of leadership. The first follower transforms a lone nut into a leader. If the leader is the flint, the first follower is the spark that makes the fire.

    The 2nd follower is a turning point: it's proof the first has done well. Now it's not a lone nut, and it's not two nuts. Three is a crowd and a crowd is news.

    A movement must be public. Make sure outsiders see more than just the leader. Everyone needs to see the followers, because new followers emulate followers – not the leader.

    Now here come 2 more, then 3 more. Now we've got momentum. This is the tipping point! Now we've got a movement!

    As more people jump in, it's no longer risky. If they were on the fence before, there's no reason not to join now. They won't be ridiculed, they won't stand out, and they will be part of the in-crowd, if they hurry. Over the next minute you'll see the rest who prefer to be part of the crowd, because eventually they'd be ridiculed for not joining.

    And ladies and gentlemen that is how a movement is made! Let's recap what we learned:

    If you are a version of the shirtless dancing guy, all alone, remember the importance of nurturing your first few followers as equals, making everything clearly about the movement, not you.

    Be public. Be easy to follow!

    But the biggest lesson here – did you catch it?

    Leadership is over-glorified.

    Yes it started with the shirtless guy, and he'll get all the credit, but you saw what really happened:

    It was the first follower that transformed a lone nut into a leader.

    There is no movement without the first follower.

    We're told we all need to be leaders, but that would be really ineffective.

    The best way to make a movement, if you really care, is to courageously follow and show others how to follow.

    When you find a lone nut doing something great, have the guts to be the first person to stand up and join in.

    —

    Original video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA8z7f7a2Pk

    Official transcript at http://sivers.org/ff

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  • The Magic of Creating Potter

    I went to see the newest Harry Potter movie this weekend.  Apparently a bunch of other people went too, because it conjured up box office records.

     

    110710 Harry Potter Movie Poster 

    The movie was great.  But what left me in wonder was thinking about how it came to be.  The scope and scale of the series is literally amazing.

    Even just for this movie, the number of people listed on the credits was astounding. 

    Yet, think about how many people were involved in producing the movies, books, and merchandising.  And that's not including the theme parks, promotion, and the eco-system that forms to support a project of this magnitude.

    When did it become real ?

    • Was it when the first book came out?
    • Perhaps it was when J.K. Rowling got a contract to have the book published?
    • Even earlier … how about when she finished writing the book … or
    • Did it happen when she started writing it?

    It is arguable that it became real when she started thinking about it.

    On some level, Rowling probably agrees.  Here is a quote she wrote from Dumbledore, in response to Harry asking whether something was real or happening in his head.

    "Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry; but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?"

    The real magic of creation happens in the mind.

    In a very real sense, there is "infinite possibility" … because in every moment there are an infinite number of possibilities.  To a great extent, though, our automatic habits preclude seeing them.  This may seem to make it is easier to focus on the path taken; but it unconsciously limits the future.

    What would have happened if, back in the early 1990s, J.K. Rowling had the idea for Harry Potter … but thought she couldn't write a book (or even if she did, who would read it?).  Her "new world" didn't exist yet, while her "old world" didn't have a path from there-to-here.

    Einstein460x276Einstein spoke to this. He said:

    “You cannot solve a problem from the same consciousness that created it. You must learn to see the world anew.”

    There's magic in choosing a path that energizes you.  Reality is what you bring to it, and what you hold in awareness.

    If you are interested in this, pick up a copy of "Do You QuantumThink? New Thinking That Will Rock Your World" by Dianne Collins. I've been reading it and have found a bunch of interesting concepts and useful tools.

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  • The Magic of Creating Potter

    I went to see the newest Harry Potter movie this weekend.  Apparently a bunch of other people went too, because it conjured up box office records.

     

    110710 Harry Potter Movie Poster 

    The movie was great.  But what left me in wonder was thinking about how it came to be.  The scope and scale of the series is literally amazing.

    Even just for this movie, the number of people listed on the credits was astounding. 

    Yet, think about how many people were involved in producing the movies, books, and merchandising.  And that's not including the theme parks, promotion, and the eco-system that forms to support a project of this magnitude.

    When did it become real ?

    • Was it when the first book came out?
    • Perhaps it was when J.K. Rowling got a contract to have the book published?
    • Even earlier … how about when she finished writing the book … or
    • Did it happen when she started writing it?

    It is arguable that it became real when she started thinking about it.

    On some level, Rowling probably agrees.  Here is a quote she wrote from Dumbledore, in response to Harry asking whether something was real or happening in his head.

    "Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry; but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?"

    The real magic of creation happens in the mind.

    In a very real sense, there is "infinite possibility" … because in every moment there are an infinite number of possibilities.  To a great extent, though, our automatic habits preclude seeing them.  This may seem to make it is easier to focus on the path taken; but it unconsciously limits the future.

    What would have happened if, back in the early 1990s, J.K. Rowling had the idea for Harry Potter … but thought she couldn't write a book (or even if she did, who would read it?).  Her "new world" didn't exist yet, while her "old world" didn't have a path from there-to-here.

    Einstein460x276Einstein spoke to this. He said:

    “You cannot solve a problem from the same consciousness that created it. You must learn to see the world anew.”

    There's magic in choosing a path that energizes you.  Reality is what you bring to it, and what you hold in awareness.

    If you are interested in this, pick up a copy of "Do You QuantumThink? New Thinking That Will Rock Your World" by Dianne Collins. I've been reading it and have found a bunch of interesting concepts and useful tools.

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  • Using Mind-Maps in Business – Part 2

    Mind mapping tools have been around for many years. However, I'm starting to see a much wider adoption of mind mapping throughout my company and with the wider business audience.

    Part 1 of this series, Using Mind Maps, examined mind mapping and why you might want to use its "radiant thinking" process.  Here, in Part 2, we will look at some specific business uses for mind maps.

    Below are four examples where mind mapping has proved useful to me recently.

    Meeting Agendas: A mind map provides a great graphic overview of everything relating to the meeting, from attendee lists, meeting notes, web links, documents, to-do items, and parking lot issues.

    110606 Mind Maps - Meeting Agenda 
    Using the map during the meeting helps the team move above the details to keep the bigger picture in mind.

    Employee Reviews: A mind map is helpful during the complete review life cycle.

    • First, it's a great place to keep notes on how someone's doing and areas for improvement.
    • Second, it's a great template to prompt the reviewer to look at the whole picture in a  fair and balanced way.
    • Third, the map is easy to share and revise.

    In addition, while you may take the notes based on business categories like performance, potential, flexibility, and attitude  -  you might deliver the review based on a "Green", "Yellow", and "Red" metaphor that makes it easy for the employee to understand and act upon.  Here is an example of that type of map.

    110606 Mind Maps - Employee Review

    Business Planning and Project Management:  This was one of the first areas where mind maps proved useful. It's a great tool to see the forest and the trees. 

    Here is a simple decision-making template.

    110606 Mind Maps - Visualizing Decisions

    You will find that a mind map is a great tool to use interactively during meetings. It gives the team a common focus, yet allows the facilitator to adjust that focus efficiently and effectively.

    In addition, Project View makes it easy to see the plan as a GANTT timeline or task table.  This is a terrific added capability.

    Communication and Presentation Tool: Mind maps allow great flexibility an structure during presentations. This facilitates a logical and organized presentation, as well as ad hoc interactive discussions.

    More experienced mind mappers tend to use fewer words, opting to use images and the heuristic structure itself as a catalyst and reminder for deeper meaning.

    An added bonus of using mind mapping software to present your ideas is that the map can be updated and re-ordered while you are using it.  The map becomes the common-focus for an interactive discussion.

    Cool special effects, like 3-D Views, turn your map into a 3 dimensional object, allowing you to glide around it from different angles, zoom in on different areas and transform presenting mind maps into a whole new experience.  Here is an example.

     

     

     

    Obviously, there are many other things you can do with mind maps.

    Here is a link to Buzan's Gallery of Mind Maps and here is a link to BiggerPlate's Mind Map Gallery.  In addition, here is a link to product tutorial videos.

    The current generation of mind mapping tool is considerably more powerful, yet easier-to-use, than its predecessors. It's time to try it for yourself.

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  • Using Mind-Mapping Tools – Part 1

    Mind maps are going mainstream. They're showing up throughout the office, with a wide variety of users and uses.

    Initially, mind maps were simply a brainstorming, outlining, or note-taking tool. Now, they are showing up in thought processing, visual thinking, project management, process planning and presentations.

    110530 Uses of Mind Maps

    Tony Buzan is the father of modern mind mapping. Here is a video where he describes mind mapping and why you might want to use its "radiant thinking" process.

     

     

     

    Tony Buzan's company recently released iMindMap 5. It is software that helps you create mind maps.  Here is a map made with iMindMap that explains the basic best practices of mind-mapping.

     

    110530 Mind Map Laws

    iMindMap 5 is a great tool that keeps getting better. You can certainly use it for a lot more than taking notes.

    The product comes in various versions (starting with a no-cost basic version) and moving up to a full-featured Ultimate version, which includes rich project management and 3-D presentation tools.

    Here is a video showing the software.

     

     
     
    The current generation of mind mapping tool is considerably more powerful, yet easier-to-use, than its predecessors. You can download a copy of iMindMap to try for yourself.

     Next week, in part 2, I will show examples of maps made for specific business uses.

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