Games

  • Trends To Watch Due To The Pandemic

    The pandemic has affected many things beyond basic health. Increasingly, I see research showing meaningful increases in pornography consumption, suicide rates, and a host of other trends that are shaping our world today … but, in the longer-term, it is also affecting the face of tomorrow. 

    Flexible Workplaces

    In May, after only several months of lock-down, I was surprised how many businesses decided that they had no intention of ever requiring their employees to come back into the office. 

    As we close in on a year in the pandemic, I am surprised how easily we adapted to the new normal.  Even with a vaccine in sight, I suspect many of the adaptations will remain.

    Personally, I like going to the office.  Most days, I still do … even though a tiny fraction of our people are there.

    With that said, I know that our business matured.  We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable. We've gotten better at deciding what's a meeting (versus an e-mail or an online chat). People are working hours that are more comfortable for them, and we see meetings happen both earlier and later than they used to, before the quarantine. 

    As a macro trend, we also see a flight from urban centers.

     

    Migration-from-urban-areas

    via visualcapitalist

    I keep hearing about people moving far from their work-places.  Ultimately, they decided that remote work enables a new form of freedom for them – to live where they want, regardless of what they do (or who they do it for).

    Over time, I'm curious how a remote workforce will impact the quality and the amount of work done. 

    Adding to my initial concerns, flexible workspaces cause (or exacerbate) other issues, including cybersecurity, digital collaboration, defining the new workday, and a host of other challenges. 

    Digital Explosion

    I remember the early 2000s and the distress I felt watching how many time cycles my son "wasted" being on his phone (which to me, at that time, seemed like "all-the-time"). But, in retrospect, that was nothing. 

    Flash forward to 2019, and everything was even more "digital" and "smart."  Refrigerators, exercise bikes, billboards, and more all had screens, and 2-year-olds were already digitally literate. "All-the-time" took on a whole new meaning.

    Somehow, the pandemic still took our reliance on the digital world (or our augmented alternate reality) to the next level. 

     

    PAN Graph for HEALTH Survey

    via Alaska DHSS

    Kids are also getting less physical activity and human contact, and spending much more time online.  Contributing to this is the reality that much of their academics have been forced online.  Likewise, adults also are shifting more of their attention and activity cycles to the digital world.

    Continued screen-time increases coincide with video game revenue spiking and Internet traffic increasing by more than 50% worldwide. 

    As the world opens up, I still expect digital reliance numbers to stay above pre-COVID benchmarks. People's reliance on digital to feed their need for information, entertainment, and companionship is growing.

    Changing Business Landscape

    Starting with consumers, we've seen a massive movement toward frictionless and touchless payment. Even physical stores are prioritizing getting in and out without having to deal with another human. In addition, there's a massive move toward delivery services for groceries and meals. 

    On top of the changes to normal retail services, reliance on online shopping has increased, while the time it takes for electronic purchases to your door has decreased. Combined, these factors will terraform commerce.  Consequently, this year was likely an inflection point for e-commerce penetration … and, from that perspective, life will never be the same again.

     

    Ecommerce-forecastvia visual capitalist

    Despite the growth of online retail, many small businesses that couldn't move online are struggling, and many have already gone under. 

    Which leads to the next trend …

    Increasing Wealth Stratification

    While small business owners and front line workers have been struggling, billionaires saw their wealth increase by over half a trillion dollars. 

    Part of this is due to government aid toward large companies, part of it is due to tax laws, and part of it is due to the digital rise mentioned in the previous section. The big tech companies were already thriving, and the pandemic created a positive inflection point. 

    Despite those gains, the pandemic hit millennials and small businesses hard. 

     

    200928_millennial-covid-impact_fullwidthvia Morning Consult

    The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the larger the wealth inequality will grow, and the more people you can expect looking for government assistance. The strong will thrive while others will suffer increasingly from learned helplessness.

    Obviously, the 2020 quarantine has created impacts in many other areas – including family stress, community isolation, political radicalization, etc. Moreover, these effects won't be isolated to this year – and we should expect many to impact our "new normal" for years to come.

    Some people consider this a challenge. I think it's the playing field. It's going to be true for everyone. What you make it mean, and what you choose to do, it is up to you.  Some will be like a cork, floating on the water, going where the tide takes it. Others will recognize the situation as an opportunity and thrive.

    The impact has been global, but the choices you make are local … and they are still your to make.

    Here is to making 2021 our best year yet!

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 10th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     
     

    Trading Links:

  • Can A Minute Be Faster? A Look At The Internet Minute

    As I get older, time seems to move faster … but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

    Technology is a powerful force function.

    Every couple of years I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

    In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

    Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

    Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

    • The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion
    • Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion
    • Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting.
    • The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase!

    Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

    • 4 million search queries on Google
    • Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
    • Email users send 204 million messages

    Over the course of its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

    So, what does the internet look like in 2020?

    Internet-minute-2020DOMO via VisualCapitalist

    Partially as a result of the quarantine, you're seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

    This year, DOMO also created a chart that shows the services that have appeared in the graphic since 2012. It's an interesting way to look at the relevancy and staying power of different companies and technologies. 

    Data-never-sleeps-wheel-over-time-5

    We're currently in a time period of massive competition and turnover. Innovation means incumbents are being challenged every day, and the status quo doesn't stay that way for long. Even within the S&P 500, you're seeing companies stay a member for shorter periods of time.  

    You have to stay on your toes to maintain an edge. I think you can expect increased competition, increased volume, and as a result, increased noise vying for your attention or fueling your distraction. 

  • Generations of Fathers

    Happy Father's Day!

    Both of my children are adults now. It's strange to consider them fully-functioning autonomous adults – because I remember their childhood like it was yesterday (like worrying whether the soft spot on their heads would ever fill in and harden up, or if they'd ever stop sleeping with a nightlight). 

    Today, they're men doing great things,  and I get to be proud of them.  I also get to be proud of my role in their growth and proud of passing down the wisdom of my dad, and his father, and the rest who came before me. 

    It has been 20 years since my father died … Crazy how time flies! He was my best friend and an amazing mentor. His vision for what I could become helped shape and inform my goals, my accomplishments, and yes, me.

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, my dad came down from the stands onto the field.  He hugged me and told me that he knew I could do it. Then, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was a little disappointed?  "Disappointed?" I asked. "But, Dad, I won."  He looked at me and said, "Winning is great … but you didn't throw a personal best."   He was proud, and he loved me.   He recognized that winning was important … but he wanted to remind me that the other throwers weren't my real competition.  

    In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted and complacent.

    One of his favorite sayings was, "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

    As time goes on, I recognize how much of my Dad is in me. And, likewise, how much his father was a part of him … and how parts of all of us have somehow become a part of my children. 

     

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    Me, my dad, and grandfather

    My Impact on My Children

    I hope I've imparted many important lessons to my children – but one of the most impactful lessons was teaching them to enjoy reading. 

    Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. And, they also received more books in the process. 

    Here's how it worked. 

    When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished ten books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

    When they finished a hundred books, they earned a game system. 

    There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortably reading a particular genre (teen fiction) and didn't want to read the kind of books that I thought he was ready to read (and might enjoy more).  So, I created a bonus system that counted a specific book (it might have been a Tom Clancy novel) as three books.  I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

    As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

    So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

    IMG_8265

    Three generations of Getsons

    Fortunately, in child-rearing, everyone can win. My sons love reading to this day – and have learned that they can accomplish anything they set their minds to… one step at a time. 

    My sons weren't ever forced to stop watching TV, or read a certain type of book, and always had endless things to keep them entertained. 

    Win-win. 

    I like to think each generation becomes better (as people and parents) due to the cumulative experience of the generations that came before them. 

    We stand on the shoulders of giants. 

    I look forward to seeing how my (eventual) grandchildren turn out, and how little pieces of me and their great-grandfather show up. 

    Hope you had a great weekend.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 3rd, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Beyond The Snap: Business Lessons From Football

    The NFL draft happened this week, despite the Quarantine.

    I was happy to distract myself from the economy and news cycles.

    Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.

    Some lessons relate to being part of a team, while others relate to the coaching or management side of things.

    Some of these lessons stem back to youth football … but I still learn things watching games – and even more from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star. 

    Think about it, even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choice to fill certain roles.  In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.

    The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.

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    To re-state, most businesses are less prepared for their problems than an 8th-grade football team. Now, that sounds offensive to some of you, but if you think about it … it's pretty true. 

    Losing to An 8th Grade Team

    I shot this video right before the COVID-19 shutdown.  I encourage you to watch it.  I think it's 3 minutes well spent.

     

    Teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week's problem, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal. 

    Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic … they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

    The amount of thought that goes into football – which is ultimately a game – is a valuable lesson for business. 

    What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what about businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team. 

    Let's look at the Cowboys. 

    Practice Makes Perfect

    How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

    Each time I've watched a practice session I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

    During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.

    Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season … but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

    They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast … but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but the skillsets as well (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).

    They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices … but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets). 

    They don't just film games, they film the practices … and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback, constant improvement, or constant renewal. Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

    Beyond The Snap

    The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.

    During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

    After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

    Think about it … everyone knows what game they are playing … and for the most part, everybody understands the rules, and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance. 

    Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

    Challenge accepted.

  • Ending The World With A Paperclip

    Every week I send out an e-mail on Fridays with 20 light links and 20 market-moving links. If you're not getting that e-mail, you can sign up here. On Sundays, I send out our weekly commentary (which this article is a part of, along with 5 new light links and 5 new market-moving links (you can sign up here).

    My son sees the links before they're posted. He was interested in one of this week's links – The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But A Paperclip. 

    As a result, he played the game Paperclips to completion.  While he characterizes it as “wasting a whole night,” I think it gives us insight into the addictive nature of clicker games and into how the world as we know it could end with a paperclip. 

    There are spoilers ahead, so if you intend on wasting three hours on a browser game, you may want to skip this article … no, you're good? OK, here it is. 

    Screen Shot 2020-02-03 at 1.39.21 PMFrank Lantz via Decision Problem

    The game starts with you clicking a button to create paperclips but quickly spirals from there. Through setting up automation to create paperclips and then to have it start automatically buying the wire for you, you begin focusing on other projects – specifically creating a better trading algorithm to leverage the money you're making and improving your company's AI and Quantum Computing capabilities. 

    Hmm, starting to sound familiar …

    Initially, your AI is focused purely on maximizing paper clip demand and production.  It can increase marketing to increase demand and make your autoclippers more efficient to produce more paperclips per unit wire. If you look at the projects in the above screenshot you can see projects like: 

    • Full Monopoly – Establish full control over the worldwide paperclip market
    • Global Warming – A robust solution to man-made climate change
    • HypnoDrones – Autonomous aerial brand ambassadors

    Projects like curing cancer or solving global warming gain trust and allow you to invest more money in processors and memory (which end up setting you up to take over the world.)

    Fast forward to Zach beating the game …

    Screen Shot 2020-02-03 at 2.23.47 PMFrank Lantz via Decision Problem

    When you release the HypnoDrones all of the resources become available for Paperclip production, and you gain full autonomy. Your inner benevolent dictator feels satisfied and your mother’s expectations for your potential are partially fulfilled.

    At this point in the game, Zach had created less than half a billion paperclips but was worth several billions of dollars. It took him 2 hours and 44 minutes to beat the game. 

    Is it a game, a parable, a prediction – or an advanced intelligence’s test of human nature?

     

  • Super Bowl 2020

    A friend has two tickets for the 2020 SUPER BOWL — both box seats. He paid $2,500 for each ticket, but didn't realize last year when he bought them that it was going to be on the same day as his wedding. If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place — it’s at St. Dominic's Church in San Francisco at 3pm. Her name is Melissa . She's 5'7 about 140 lbs. She's a good cook, too. She'll be the one in the white dress.
     
    As for the Super Bowl, it seems like this will be a good matchup. The KC Chiefs are in it for the first time in 50 years (and have an amazing offense), while the 49ers are coming off a series of tough seasons (but have an amazing defense). It will also be a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick's scowl gracing our screens. 
    It's not just the fans that are excited about the matchup, it's also the bookies. Two years ago, gamblers set a record by placing $158.6 million in Super Bowl bets. Expect more of the same with gambling now legalized in an additional 13 states beyond Nevada. 
     
    If you're still looking for a bet – there's another wishful thinking approach you could take to find one … it is called the "Super Bowl Indicator."
     

    Patrick-mahomes-chiefs

     

    The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, if you're hoping for a strong S&P you'd be rooting for 49ers. 

    There's one big caveat … it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that's where they got their start (or as a data scientist would caution … they did that to fit the data better). 

    With that "adjustment," at one point the SBI was "right" 33 years out of 41 – an 80% success rate. Sounds good, right?

    Come on … you know better. It's been wrong four of the last four years … another sign of spurious correlation if you weren't sure. 

    Here are some other "fun" stock market fallacies:

     

    Back to Reality

    Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have little in common, and we probably intuitively understand that correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable.

    The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

    Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator. More people than you would hope, or guess,  attempt to forecast the market based on gut, ancient wisdom, and prayers.

    While hope and prayer are good things … they aren’t good trading strategies.

    As goofy as it sounds, some of these "far-fetched" theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience…

    I have a thought experiment I sometimes ask people. 

    What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 any given year?

    … Now, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

    Recently, the answer is about 5% (and that's in a predominantly bull market).  For the record, that's significantly worse than chance. Perhaps that means something they're doing is hurting, not helping. 

     

    6a00e5502e47b28833022ad3bb6fb9200d
     via Gaping Void

    There's simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

    Every second you spend looking at a market is a second wasted.

    There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator … they're doing it with more algorithms and better technology. 

    There will never be less data or slower markets. A good reminder that if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one!

    Onwards.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 19th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • What Does The Average NFL Player Look Like (By Position)

    Football season is officially underway! In honor of that, here's a look at each position's composite player!

    As you might expect, different sports have a different ratio of ethnicities. For example, you might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Asians in Badminton.

    The same is true for different positions on a football team.  Apparently, offensive linemen are more likely to be white while running backs are more likely to be black. 

    Here is a visualization that shows what happens when you average the top players' faces in various positions?

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    osmutiar via Reddit

    Composites are interesting.

    While you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" … statistically, he's average.

    The "composite" NFL player would be the 848th best player in the league. He's not a starter, and he plays on an average team. 

    We found the same thing with our trading bots.  The ones that made it through most filters weren't star performers.  They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories).  The survivors were generalists, not specialists.

    In an ideal world, with no roster limits, you'd want the perfect lineup for each granular situation. You'd want to evaluate players on how they perform under pressure, on different downs, against other players, and with different schemes. 

    That's what technology lets you do with algorithms. You can have a library of systems that communicate with each other … and you don't even have to pay their salary (but you will need data scientists, researchers, machines, data, alternative data, electricity, disaster recovery, and a testing platform).

    You won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety. Generalists are great, but you also have to be able to respond to specific conditions.

    Onwards.