Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc.
This concept applies almost everywhere.
It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory.
Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.
A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme … Too much of a good thing is a bad thing!
To be fair, we shot this video BCGPT (before ChatGPT). Since then, AI has become much more accessible and useful.
It was the start of the golden age of AI,machine learning, and process automation … but in the last seven years, AI's effects and impact have become radically more widespread.
While marketing relies on data, analytics, and automation, Ryan believes it also needs a personal touch. He suggested that the best AI should make conversations feel more human (particularly in marketing and selling) and allow humans to be more human. In other words, as technology frees people up, they can focus on more valuable things.
Today, more marketers – including Ryan – use generative AI tools to streamline their process and improve their output.
His points about using tools like ChatGPT remain valid.
The saying is trite, but AI won't replace your job … a human with AI will.
This has happened many times in society. Fewer people work in farming or manufacturing, yet more people are doing more jobs. However, many of these new jobs didn't exist – or couldn't have been imagined – before people were freed up to contemplate what they could or should do. This shift in perspective is what truly matters and adds the most value to society, the economy, and people's lives.
Just as mechanization freed up workforces for better jobs, AI can do the same.
On September 28th, 1997 (almost exactly 17 years ago today), Apple released perhaps one of the most recognizable commercials of all time. I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computer's iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.
The 34th Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place last Thursday at MIT. Every year since 1991, around the time the recipients of the genuine Novel Prizes are announced, the Ig Nobel Prize awards the ten achievements that "first make people laugh, and then make them think. They're meant to celebrate the imaginative and encourage more interest in the sciences.
And in 2017, Marc-Antoine Fardin earned the honor for using fluid dynamics to finally answer the eternal question: "Can a cat be both a solid and a liquid?" In case you are squeamish, no blender was involved in that experiment.
While these are funny examples, they're rooted in real science. As is the focus of this article, this year's Ig Nobel Prize for Demography.
In my circles, it is becoming more common to discuss how to live past 100 — and not just how to live beyond that number … but to do so with a high quality of life.
A popular concept around that subject is Blue Zones – areas where people seem to live longer and healthier. There's even a Netflix documentary on the subject. Notable places include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Ikaria, Greece.
Saul Justin Newman challenged that belief with his research, which found that extreme age records tend to come from areas with no birth certificates, rampant clerical errors, pension fraud … and even short life spans.
While longevity in the zones has primarily been attributed to diet, community, and genetics, Newman found that many of these claims were based on errors – or outright fraud. Instead, these regions are actually characterized by the opposite of what you would expect … low incomes, low literacy, high crime, and short lifespans.
To a certain extent, it makes sense. In areas where you're struggling to make ends meet … why wouldn't you commit pension fraud? In fact, in 2010, the Japanese government realized that over 80% of the people aged over 100 were actually dead. Part of what made this possible was that America bombed the halls of records in that area during the war.
Here's an interview with Saul Justin Newman on the subject. He's tracked over 80% of the people aged over 110 worldwide. Almost none of them have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate.
What does this mean for human longevity?
While the stories of these 110-year-olds may mostly be fake – as mentioned in my recent article – longevity is on the rise, and there are many modalities to increase your lifespan.
The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.
There are people living to 100, and there are plenty of people living healthily into their 70s, 80s, and 90s.
We're taking steps in the right direction. Technology and medicine are both evolving quickly.
But, like with longevity data, improvements in any space need to be met with a grain of salt.
If it sounds too good to be true … it generally is. Not always. But, generally.
The same is true in business. Opportunity draws a crowd … but the best opportunities are often in areas of less competition.
For entrepreneurs, oversaturation can turn products into commodities, reducing profit potential. Conversely, many shy away when a challenge seems insurmountable, creating unexpected opportunities for those willing to take the risk.
As an entrepreneur, I’m drawn to projects others might dismiss as science fiction. These are the challenges that often lead to the most groundbreaking and rewarding outcomes.
Moonshot Projects
Moonshot projects offer a unique advantage. While they may seem daunting, their audacious nature often means less competition and greater potential for transformative impact and extraordinary profits.
A moonshot project is a highly ambitious, transformative endeavor that seeks to solve a significant problem or create a revolutionary innovation. These projects are characterized by:
Audacious Goals: They aim for breakthroughs that seem nearly impossible to achieve.
Disruptive Impact: They strive to create solutions that are vastly superior to existing offerings, often by introducing entirely new paradigms.
High-Risk, High-Reward: These projects embrace the potential for failure in pursuit of groundbreaking results.
Long-Term Focus: They prioritize long-term impact over short-term gains.
Technological Advancements: They leverage cutting-edge or even nascent technologies.
Paradigm Shifts: They challenge conventional wisdom and industry norms.
Moonshot projects are inherently challenging. They demand significant resources, interdisciplinary collaboration, and a willingness to venture into the unknown. This perceived difficulty often deters potential competitors, creating a unique opportunity for those willing to take the risk.
When successful, they push the boundaries of what is possible and redefine the landscape of their respective fields.
In part, that is why a 10X mindset is particularly well-suited for Moonshot projects. By aiming for a tenfold improvement over existing solutions, you’re essentially operating in a space with little to no competition or opposition. This allows you to redefine the rules of the game and establish a sustainable competitive advantage.
Our strategy of creating a unique, sustainable competitive advantage aligns perfectly with the Moonshot approach. By choosing to play a different game (with an asymmetric edge), we’re not just competing; we’re fundamentally changing the playing field.
I’m not interested in going head-to-head with tech giants on their turf. Instead, the goal is to carve out our own niche, focused on using our unique abilities to push boundaries and extend our edge. Being slightly ahead of the competition can be a powerful attractor. It often leads potential competitors to seek collaboration rather than confrontation. They might approach you with ideas, money, or opportunities, aspiring to share in your advanced position and capabilities. This dynamic can create unexpected partnerships and accelerate progress in ways that benefit everyone involved.
When interviewing potential team members, I often share a crucial insight: if you’re seeking a job where you work 9-to-5 solving problems so you can go home feeling satisfied, this might not be the right fit.
We tackle challenges of a different magnitude. Our projects rarely have quick solutions. Instead, we focus on making steady progress towards ambitious goals.
I sometimes joke that our motto should be: “We suck less.” Nevertheless, the underlying truth is more profound. It’s about understanding your ultimate objective and recognizing that each step moves you in the right direction, no matter how small.
This approach aligns with our belief in playing a different game. We don’t just compete; we redefine the rules of engagement, creating our own metrics for success and pushing boundaries in ways that traditional thinking often overlooks. Kind of like this quote:
“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” - Thomas Edison
It doesn’t make sense to challenge a bigger and better-funded competitor in an area where they have an asymmetric advantage. In other words, don’t compete with giants at their own game.
Choose to play a game you expect to win.
Playing a different game is a theme at Capitalogix. We believe that you control the game you’re playing, the rules, how you keep score, and even how you evaluate success. These things inform where to spend time, where to invest money, and even what looks like an opportunity to you.
Wouldn’t you rather compete in areas where you can create a unique, sustainable competitive advantage? Personally, I want to invest in the things that extend the edges that let us win.
Why? Because … Mediocrity Is Expensive!
What you lack in size or computer power, you can make up for in creativity, agility, and innovation.
We sought to create a niche in the investment industry, not through computing power, but through unique approaches to age-old problems. We use AI and data science to enhance decision-making.
We have an incredibly narrow and consistent focus. Within that area, we are willing to take on problems others avoid and pursue goals that others say are impossible.
Our niche limits risk and lets us fail faster … and learn faster. This allows us to take confident action while others are tentative.
Most big companies – and most of our competitors – are afraid to be wrong. They have to protect their infrastructure, cash cows, and short-term performance metrics. It makes sense (from their perspective) that playing it safe means they’re secure. – but that’s not how it works.
You can’t challenge the status quo when you are the status quo.
10x Improvement Is Often Easier To Achieve Than 10%
Incremental change is hard – it’s finding new ways to do the same thing, and you often end up competing in very red oceans – saturated markets where you’re competing on price.
Moonshots sound harder, but you create your own niche, and the constraints of a new idea force creativity and energy. If you’re going after a goal that no one has accomplished before, it’s impossible to be in a red ocean, and it’s easier to mobilize a team around something exciting and new than decreasing some arbitrary metric by 2%.
There are a couple of important lessons to keep in mind when pursuing the unknown.
Forget what you know – self-reported “experts” are limited by their worldview. If you’re trying to get a different result, you won’t do it by playing by the same rules your predecessors followed. Heuristics are great for making life easier – but they’re very limiting when trying to create something new.
Attack the hardest problems first – your biggest problems are your biggest opportunities. If you don’t deal with the big problems now, you’ll never get around to it, and you’ll waste time, energy, and potentially realize you have to pivot much too late.
Be comfortable being uncomfortable – Most people find failure taboo, and they’re deathly afraid of it. Tony Robbins talks about our tendency to avoid pain more actively than we pursue pleasure, and it’s true in business. But failure is a part of business. The people I consider most successful got there through incredible pain tolerance and increasingly intense problems that they continued to conquer.
Have a short memory for pain – Focus on the gain, not the pain. People often focus on not having enough money, not enough time, or simply not having enough. That scarcity mindset is dangerous and can lead to getting lost in pain and fear. Acknowledging the pain/fear and moving forward from a place of abundance and opportunity helps create opportunities.
As well, a clear identity is important. You have to understand what you’re pursuing and how you want to attack the problem. At Capitalogix, we’ve gotten very in tune with our goals.
We invent techniques that identify and adapt to what happens in markets. We apply the lessons learned from past experiences, data science breakthroughs, and hard work to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that are the downfall of most traders and decision-makers.
Small businesses don’t have a monopoly on these mindsets and these opportunities, but companies like Y Combinator, X(and no, I don't mean the company formerly known as Twitter), or HeroX are few and far between … Elon Musk is famous for moonshots like Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, Xai, etc. Google and Microsoft pursue moonshots as well.
Good news … the future is big enough for them and you.
Choose something that lights you up and leverages what you already know and who you already are.
Meanwhile … the United States has fallen to 48th on the list of countries with the highest life expectancy.
Hong Kong tops the list with an average life expectancy of 85.63 overall – and 88.26 years for females.
For comparison, the U.S.'s average life expectancy is only 79.46.
Many factors potentially impact the findings, for example, the average height and weight of a population (with shorter & lighter people tending to live longer), diet, healthcare system, and work/life balance.
While some of this is out of your control (OK, a lot of it is) – there are definitely things you can do to increase your healthy lifespan. Meanwhile, some people like Bryan Johnson are doing everything they can to live forever.
Popular Mechanics put together a video series called How to Live Forever, or Die Trying, where they interview scientists and anti-aging gurus to give you insight into pursuing a future without death.
Unfortunately, recent science has shown that adults in their mid-40s to early 60s begin to experience significant changes in their alcohol, caffeine, and lipid metabolism, an increase in risk of cardiovascular disease, and a noticeable decrease in their skin and muscle health. When you hit your 60s, you also begin to see negative changes in carbohydrate metabolism, immune regulation, kidney function, and a further decline in the previously mentioned factors.
Here's the good news. Not only is science and technology getting better, but you're always in control. You can make lifestyle changes to increase your longevity, and you can also find supplements, treatments, and protocols that can reverse those factors of aging. Even simple measures like increasing your physical activity or avoiding alcohol before bed can make a massive difference.
They say a healthy person has thousands of dreams, but an unhealthy person only has one.
That is one of the reasons I spend so much time and energy thinking about staying healthy, fit, and vital.
Focusing on the positive is important … But to extend your healthy lifespan, you have to start by telling the truth and finding out what you and your body struggle with the most.
A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn't matter if you are on top of 9 out of 10 things … it's the 10th that kills you.
Despite our best efforts, Mother Nature remains undefeated.
With that said, here are some of my previous articles on longevity and health:
The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.
I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.
Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.
Additionally, I use a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to measure my heart rate, along with apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. Together, these practices recognize that mind, body, and spirit combine to define how you live your life.
To end this post, I'll use a farewell phrase I heard often while growing up … it translates roughly to "go in health, come in health, and be healthy." It's a beautiful way to wish someone well on their journey, emphasizing the importance of health and well-being.
I hope you found something interesting. Let me know what things and practices work best for you.
I’ve found that they are an excellent source of well-researched tech and business analysis. As another example, here is a video of their Top Ten Tech Trends for 2024.
Humans are famously bad at predicting the future of technologies. We tend to overestimate technology’s abilities in the near term and massively underestimate what it can do in the long term.
The shape of that curve has come to be known as the Gartner Hype Cycle, and the five stages of that curve are important for any entrepreneur or investor to understand.
via Gartner
In general, as technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and disappointed when those expectations aren’t met.
At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where we are in the product’s timeline and how long it will likely take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily lives.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.
Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like “How will these technologies impact my business?” and “Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?”
Another methodology uses frequency analysis to identify the “most hyped” concepts and technologies.
VisualCapitalist recently put together an infographic highlighting the most hyped technologies of each year. They call it the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”.
2017 – Virtual Assistants, Connected Home, Deep Learning
2018 – Biochips, Digital Twin, Deep Neural Networks
2019* – 5G, AI PaaS, Graph Analytics *Missing from the infographic, but updated by Gartner
As we take our smartphones for granted, it’s hard to imagine Bluetooth, wireless web, or e-book readers as emerging technologies at this point – but at one point in time, the lightbulb was an emerging technology.
It’s also interesting to look at which technologies peaked in a hype cycle … and which now popular technologies no longer appear on this list. For example, despite Virtual Reality being around since the 80s, I still expected to see it on this list.
Cryptocurrencies, “smart homes”, and several older examples are in a recession – but that doesn’t mean they won’t have resurgences.
As a reminder, the hype cycle and the innovation adoption cycle are often on very different time scales. It’s very possible that technologies from the early 2000s may still have their heyday.
What are you surprised wasn’t on the list? And, what do you think is about to get added?
via 
via Gartner