I'm sure we'll talk more about Bitcoin … but, more importantly, Blockchain (which is the technology that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were built upon).
I am currently investigating and planning how we'll use Blockchain.
Human's can't do a lot of things. Honestly, the fact that we're top of the food-chain is pretty miraculous.
We're slow, we're weak, and we're famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth.
Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.
It's a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing.
Innovation is a reminder that you can't be medium-obsessed. Kodak's goal was to preserve memories. It wasn't to sell film. Blockbuster's goal wasn't to get people in their stores, it was to get movies in homes.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers, but never asking them what they wanted.
Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn't necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.
Tech and A.I. are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
I'm getting cynical, I understand planned obsolescence … but has it occurred to you that Apple could make their phones act sluggish just before the launch of a new version?
My phone has been driving me nuts. So, (as I write this) I'm up at 2 am to place my order for the new iPhone X.
On one hand, it satisfies my desire for the new and shiny … but, on the other hand, it makes it harder for my wife.
Buying gifts is often hard. But it gets harder when the giftee already has everything (or buys it himself).
Every year since 1959, Neiman Marcus has published a Christmas Book. Primarily comprised of normal Neiman Marcus offerings … the book also contains pretty amazing "fantasy" gifts. For example, who doesn't want a rose-gold Cobalt Valkyrie-X private plane (worth $1.5 million) …
Neiman Marcus
I don't know about you, but it's a little feminine for me.
Or, there is a private Submarine (worth $20,000,000).
Neiman Marcus
But that is only good if you don't have one already.
You can check out NM's 2017 Fantasy Gift List, here, and get a personal trip to Champagne, France or a pair of specially commissioned His and Hers Rolls Royces.
Let me know if you have any good gift ideas. I'm always looking for them.
There's a lot of "hype" these days. Social media and tools like Kickstarter would have you believe that every new idea is the "next big new thing".
In contrast, Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct, contextually understandable, snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit on the hype cycle.
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"
What's a "Hype Cycle"?
As technology advances, it is human-nature to get excited about the possibilities we imagine … and then to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met.
At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity.
This year, according to Gartner, there are three overarching "mega-trends" to watch.
AI Everywhere shows the transition towards a ubiquitous AI experience, from self-driving cars, to machine learning, and to smart robots. Consider the impact on traffic/accidents with the adoption of autonomous vehicles, or the ability of machine learning to process more data faster.
Transparently Immersive Experiences shows our transition towards human-centric contextual and fluid technological experiences. – like Connected Homes or Virtual Reality. Consider the impact of Augmented Reality on advertisements or gamification.
Digital Platforms shows the transition of emergent platforms into adoption. Platforms like Blockchain, IoT, and Quantum Computing. Consider the effects of bitcoin and other blockchain initiatives, as well as the opportunity for new business models centered around these platforms.
Here is the chart. You can click the image to see it larger.
The hype cycle gives us an idea of which of these technologies will likely survive the market hype and have a potential to become a part of our daily life.
Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).
Which technologies do you think are over-hyped … and which ones might survive the hype?
I find this stuff fascinating. Consider some of the interesting technologies just starting their hype cycle:
Human Augmentation has the potential to enhance our bodies and minds using electrical currents, chips, or exoskeletons, but also raises ethical and legal questions.
Smart Dust opens up the possibility of monitoring essentially everything by creating a vast network of minuscule sensors that can detect various inputs.
Normally, we see stores and warehouses organized by section – Cereals, Cheese, Fruit. This makes sense because as humans, it's easier to find everything if it's organized logically for us.
Amazon is changing that.
Their new service, "Prime Now," promises thousands of items delivered to you in around an hour.
That level of immediacy and activity creates an interesting set of logistical problems. For example, how would you organize the warehouse to enable that level of service? The answer might surprise you.
The answer is you don't. If you walked into one of Amazon's PrimeNow warehouses, you'd see a bunch of pods with random items next to each other. You might find cleaning supplies next to a children's toy, or maybe even an adult toy.
While this may seem weird or counter-intuitive … with numerous "shoppers" all going through the warehouse at the same time, if the warehouse was organized by category or popularity, the result would be traffic jam bottlenecks and less throughput.
By organizing items randomly, and having the list of items ready ahead of time, Amazon's computers can create an optimum path for each "shopper" that takes into account the position of the items, where the checkout is, and where other shoppers are grabbing items.
That optimum path is critical in getting your order on time. This is another example of organized chaos – where human logic (or common sense) is not the most efficient or effective path to an optimal solution.
