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  • The “Chart Of The Century” In 2025: A Look At Consumer Price Inflation

    In an era of economic uncertainty, few visualizations have captured the attention of economists, policymakers, and everyday consumers like the “Chart of the Century” created and named by Mark Perry, an economics professor and AEI scholar. This chart tracks the dramatic shifts in consumer prices across various sectors of the American economy over a quarter-century, revealing patterns that challenge conventional wisdom about inflation, purchasing power, and economic well-being.

    The most current version reports price increases from 2000 through the end of 2024 for 14 categories of goods and services, along with the average wage and overall Consumer Price Index. Here are the key findings.

     

    • Wage growth has outpaced inflation by a significant margin (123.3% vs. 90%) from 2000 to 2024, resulting in a 16.1% increase in real purchasing power.
    • Sharp divergence exists between sectors: Technology and tradable goods have become much cheaper, while healthcare, education, and childcare costs soared.
    • Market competition and trade liberalization drive price decreases, while regulated markets and limited competition contribute to price increases.
    • Despite objective improvements in purchasing power, many consumers still feel financial pressure due to changing consumption patterns and “quality of life creep”.
    • Policy challenges remain in balancing regulation with market forces, particularly in essential services like healthcare and education.

     

    Core Economic Metrics: The Big Picture

    The foundation of this analysis rests on three critical metrics that provide context for all other price trends:
     
    Metric
    Change
    (2000-2024)
    Consumer Price Index (CPI)
    +90%
    Average Hourly Income
    +123.3%
    Real Purchasing Power
    +16.1%
     
    From January 2000 to now, the CPI for All Items has increased by almost 90%. That is a big jump from its 59.6% level in 2019, when I first shared this chart.
     
    These numbers tell a surprising story: despite widespread perceptions of economic hardship, Americans’ wages have grown significantly faster than inflation over these 24 years. This translates to a meaningful increase in real purchasing power – the ability to buy more goods and services with the same amount of work.
     
    However, this aggregate picture masks dramatic variations across different categories of goods and services. Let’s explore these divergent trends.
     
    The price of technology, electronics, and consumer goods — think toys and television sets — has tumbled over the past two decades. Why? These categories benefit from global competition, technological innovation, and manufacturing efficiencies.

    Meanwhile, the cost of hospital stays, childcare, and college tuition, to name a few, have surged. Why? These sectors share important characteristics: they are typically non-tradable services (cannot be imported), operate in markets with limited competition, and are often subject to extensive regulation.

    Below is Perry’s Chart of the Century. To help you interpret it better, lines above the overall inflation line have become functionally more expensive over time, and lines below the overall inflation line have become functionally less expensive. 

    A37b1cb8-f49a-47f3-959d-d76a34f3569e_1576x1291

    via Human Progress

    For context, at the beginning of 2020, food, beverages, and housing were in line with inflation. They’ve now skyrocketed above inflation, which helps to explain the unease many households are feeling right now. College tuition and hospital services also have continued to rise relative to inflation over the past few years.

     

    Market Dynamics: Understanding the Divergence

    What explains these dramatically different price trajectories? Here are several (but not all of the) key factors:

    Factors Driving Price Increases

    • Government regulation creating compliance costs and barriers to entry.
    • Quasi-monopolistic markets with limited price competition.
    • Non-tradeable services protected from foreign competition.
    • Limited technological disruption in certain service sectors.

    Factors Driving Price Decreases

    • Foreign competition putting downward pressure on prices.
    • Technological advancement reducing production costs.
    • Manufacturing optimization increasing efficiency.
    • Market competition forcing price discipline.
    • Trade liberalization expanding access to global markets.

    Looking at the prices that decrease the most, they’re all technologies. New technologies almost always become less expensive as we optimize manufacturing, components become cheaper, and competition increases. According to VisualCapitalist, at the turn of the century, a flat-screen TV would cost around 17% of the median income ($42,148). Since then, though, prices fell quickly. Today, a new TV typically costs less than 1% of the U.S. median income ($54,132).

    We should also consider the larger trends. For example, In 2020, I asked what Coronavirus would do to prices … and the answer turned out to be way less than expected. If you don’t look at the rise in inflation but instead the change in trajectories, very few categories were heavily affected. While hospital services have increased significantly since 2019, they were already rising. There were some immediate impacts, but they went away relatively quickly. 

    Another thing to consider is average hourly income. Since 2000, overall inflation has increased by 87.3%, while average hourly income has increased by 123.3%. This means that hourly income increased 38% faster than prices (which indicates a 16.1% decrease in overall time prices). You get 19.2% more today for the same amount of time worked ~24 years ago. This represents a mild increase in abundance since last year

    0196b2c1-1499-4df5-b6e3-e6882e971d68_1876x1458

    via Human Progress

    Although 10 of the 14 items rose in nominal prices over the past 24 years, only five had a higher time price when accounting for the 123.3 percent increase in hourly wages. Those items were medical care services, childcare and nursery school, college textbooks, college tuition and fees, and hospital services. 

    The Consumer Experience: Perception vs. Reality

    It’s interesting to look at data like that, knowing that the average household is feeling a “crunch” right now.

    My guess is that few consumers distinguish between perception and reality. However, feeling a crunch isn’t necessarily the same as being in a crunch.

    For instance, we must account for ‘quality of life creep,’ where people tend to splurge on luxuries as their standard of living improves. With the ease of online shopping and access to consumer credit, it has become increasingly easy to make impulse purchases, leading to reduced savings and feelings of financial scarcity. This phenomenon is a function of increased consumption (rather than inflation), yet it still leaves consumers feeling like they’re struggling to make ends meet. Our sense of what’s normal has risen, and that’s hard to unlearn. 
     
    Perry’s ‘Chart of the Century’ reveals the complex relationships between inflation, consumption, and economic growth. While households may feel financial strain, the data shows that income has outpaced inflation, and technology has made many goods more affordable. Nonetheless, there is still a real sense of economic struggle. Especially in these last few months. 
     
    Economic Patterns: Regulated vs. Free Markets

    A clear pattern emerges when examining the relationship between market structures and price trends.

    Regulated Markets (like healthcare and education) tend toward higher prices over time, feature less price competition, and offer limited consumer choice.

    Free Markets, show price decreases over time, feature greater competition, and provide consumers more options.

    This pattern raises important questions about the role of regulation in various economic sectors and the balance between consumer protection and market efficiency.

    With that in mind, how can policymakers address sectors experiencing significant price hikes, such as healthcare and education, without stifling innovation in tradable goods and services? 

    Future Outlook

    Beyond all that, here are three other key trends to watch.

    • AI Disruption: Telemedicine and online education could bend healthcare/education cost curves.
    • Trade Wars: New tariffs risk reversing tech price declines (e.g., proposed tariffs on Chinese electronics).
    • Generational Shifts: Millennials prioritize experiences over goods, potentially easing service demand.

    As we continue to innovate and policy changes, it will be interesting to see if we can make essential services as dynamically competitive as consumer electronics. While America is one of the best countries in the world in countless ways, we do lag behind several countries in healthcare and education.

    Onwards.
  • Why Don’t We See Aliens?

    So, if the math says it's likely that there are aliens … why don't we see them?

    In 2020, I mentioned Israeli officials who claimed they had been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation – and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together.

    There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. Here are some links to things you might find interesting if you want to learn more about this.

    So, while some may still believe aliens don't exist – I think it's a more helpful thought experiment to wonder why we haven't seen them. 

    For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

    To simplify the issue, billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies) are similar to our Sun. Consequently, there must be some probability that some of them will have Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies, interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

    Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) … it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

    If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb, a particle physicist, tackles that in his book and this TED Talk.   

    via TED

    In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

    1. Habitability and stability of their planet
    2. Building blocks of life 
    3. Technological advancement
    4. Socialness/Communication technologies

    But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, the moon's effect on climate, etc. 

    Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life, and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. Even if there were others, it's entirely possible that they're extinct by now. 

    E23

    What do you think?

    Here are some other links I liked on this topic. There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

    To Infinity and Beyond!

  • Are We Alone In The Universe?

    Last week, Astronomers announced the discovery of the most promising "hints" of life on an exoplanet, K2-18, 124 light years away. 

    While it would only be signs of phytoplankton and other microscopic marine life, it would still be a massive finding. 

    I tend to read a lot across a wide variety of sources. Recently, I've noticed a significant uptick in stories about aliens, UFOs, non-human intelligence, and non-human technology. In addition, several of my seemingly sane friends claim to have direct knowledge of projects and groups (funded by well-known billionaires) close to making very public announcements about missions, research, and discoveries in these areas, they hope will result in discontiguous innovations and asymmetric capabilities.

    I'm an astronomer and I think aliens may be out there – but UFO sightings  aren't persuasive

    While I believe it's naive to assume that there's no other form of life in a universe as vast as what we understand … I'm also highly skeptical of anyone who claims that they have specific knowledge or proof. With that said, I have seen enough stuff from people I trust to expect that our beliefs about these issues will shift massively in the very near future. As an example, check out Skywatch.ai, some of its videos, or this NewsNation broadcast.

    Since we live in a time where technologies are rapidly advancing, I thought it might be interesting to test out an AI-powered chatbot designed to debunk conspiracy theories through evidence-based conversations. It is a spin-out project with roots at MIT and other top universities. Research shows that many people doubted or abandoned false beliefs after a short conversation with the DebunkBot

    I first heard of this tool through these two articles: Meet DebunkBot, The AI Chatbot that Will Debunk Any Conspiracies You Believe and AI Chatbot Shows Promise in Talking People Out of Conspiracy Theories.

    Here is a link to the conversation I had with it about the belief  "Life likely exists elsewhere in the Universe due to its vastness and the repeated conditions that can give rise to life.To my surprise, this tool concluded that the belief is not a conspiracy theory and reminded me that:

    Science for the sake of knowing is one thing. Belief for the sake of hope, curiosity, or imagination is another. The search for "life" might actually help us discover something more valuable than what we thought we were searching for in the first place.

    You can test your beliefs against DebunkBot's AI. Let me know how it goes and whether you changed your mind.

    Meanwhile, Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the Universe. 

    As usual, it's well done, fun, and informative. 

    For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with the Drake and Seager equations.

    The Drake equation estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy and the universe. It factors in variables such as habitable planets, the likelihood of life, intelligent life, and the duration of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

    The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation, focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect – for example, the number of observable stars/planets, the % have life, and the % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

    Click here to play with the Are We Alone in the Universe infographic

     

    Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 2.49.56 PMvia Information Is Beautiful

    For both equations, the infographic lets you look at various default options, but also enables you to change the variables based on your beliefs. 

    For example, the skeptic's default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy, which is still 924,000 in the universe. The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our universe. 

    Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the universe.

     

    Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 2.54.27 PMvia Information Is Beautiful

    One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially influential numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space. Conservative estimates are 420 years, but optimistic estimates are 10,000 or more. 

    One other thing to consider is that some scientists believe that life is most likely to grow on planets with very high gravity, which would also make escaping their atmosphere for space travel nigh impossible.

    If any aliens are reading this … don't worry, I won't tell. But we will find out who you voted for in the last election.

  • Taking Lessons on AI from my Grandmom

    Almost every event I go to nowadays ends up focused on AI. At a recent event, conversations ranged from use cases for generative AI (and the ethics of AI image creators) to the long-term effects of AI and its adoption.

    Before I could chime in, the conversation had gone to the various comparisons from past generations. When electricity was harnessed, articles claimed that it would never catch on, it would hurt productivity – and woe be unto the artisans it would potentially put out of business if it were to gain traction. 

    When the radio or TV was released, the older generation was sure it would lead to the death of productivity, have horrible ramifications, and ultimately lead to the next generation's failure. 

    People resist change. We're wired to avoid harm more than to seek pleasure. The reason is that, evolutionarily, you have to survive to have fun. 

    On the other hand, my grandmother used to say: "It's easy to get used to nice things.

     

    My Little Corner of the World: Grandma's Hands

     

    Here's a transcript of some of my comments during that discussion: 

     

    With AI, getting from "Zero-to-One" was a surprisingly long and difficult process.  Meaning, getting AI tools and capabilities to the point where normal people felt called to use it because they believed it would be useful or necessary was a long and winding road.  But now that everybody thinks it's useful, AI use will no longer be "special".  Instead, it will become part of the playing field.  And because of that, deciding to use AI is no longer a strategy.  It becomes table stakes.

    But that creates a potential problem and distraction.  Why?  Because, for most of us, our unique ability is not based on our ability to use ChatGPT or some other AI tool of the day.  As more people focus on what a particular tool can do, they risk losing sight of what really matters for their real business.

    Right now, ChatGPT is hot!  But, if you go back to the beginning of the Internet, MySpace or Netscape (or some other tools that were first and big) aren't necessarily the things that caught on and became standards.

    I'm not saying that OpenAI and ChatGPT aren't important.  But what I believe is more important is that we passed a turning point where, all of a sudden, tons of people started to use something new.  That means there will be an increase of focus, resources, and activity concentrated on getting to next in that space.

    You don't have to predict the technology; it is often easier and better to predict human nature instead.  We're going to find opportunities and challenges we wouldn't because of the concentration of energy, focus, and effort.  Consequently, AI, business, and life will evolve.

    For most of us, what that means is that over the next five years, our success will not be tied to how well we use a tool that exists today, but rather on how we develop our capabilities to leverage tools like that to grow our business and improve our lives. 

    Realize that your success will not be determined by how well you learn to use ChatGPT.  It will be determined by how well you envision your future and recognize opportunities to use tools to start making progress toward the things you really want and to become more and more of who you really are.  Right?

    So, think about your long-term bigger future.  Pick a time 5, 10,  or even 20 years from now.  What does your desired bigger future look like?  Can you create a vivid vision where you describe in detail what you'd like to happen in your personal, professional, and business life?  Once you've done that, try to imagine what a likely midpoint might look like.  And then, using that as a directional compass, try to imagine what you can do in this coming year that aligns your actions with the path you've chosen.

     

    Ultimately, as you start finding ways to use emerging technologies in a way that excites you, the fear and gloom fade.

    The best way to break through a wall isn't with a wide net … but with a sharp blow. You should be decisive and focused. 

    Commit to using AI in ways that give you energy, which may be entirely different from how you use it now. 

    So much of what we do now is anchored in the past. This is an opportunity to transcend the old ways you did things and to shape and transform your future (and perhaps even what you believe is possible).

    I was an entrepreneur in the late 90s (during the DotCom Bubble). And I remember watching people start to emulate Steve Jobs … wearing black faux-turtlenecks and talking about how they were transforming their business to be in an Internet company – or which Internet company would be the "next big thing." Looking back, an early sign that a crash was coming was that seemingly everybody had an opinion about what would be hot, and too many people were overly confident in their views because seemingly everyone was saying the same things. 

    Human nature has remained stubbornly consistent through many waves of technology. 

    The point is that almost nobody talks about the Internet with the focus and intensity they did in the late 90s … in part because the Internet is now part of the fabric of society. At this point, it would be weird if somebody didn't use the Internet. And you don't really even have to think about how to use the Internet anymore because there's a WHO to do almost all those HOWs (and many of them are digital WHOs that do those HOWs for you without you even knowing they were needed or being done). 

    The same is going to be true for AI. Like with any technology, it will suffer from all the same hype-cycle blues of inflated expectations and then disillusionment. But, when we come out the other side, AI will be better for it … and so will society. 

    Understanding the Possibility Scale

    It helps to understand how we bring things into existence. To start, it's nearly impossible to manifest something you can't first imagine. And there is a moment just before something happens – when it becomes inevitable. 

    I created this Possibility Scale to help envision the stages of becoming.

     

    20250329 HMG Possibility Scale

     

    As an aside, before today, I would not have attempted to create an image for a post like this. While I love thinking and writing, image creation was outside my area of expertise or unique ability. But now things are different. Today, I simply asked ChatGPT to create that image. Yes, it took me four tries … each retry starting with "that was great, now help me improve the prompt to (fix the thing I wanted done differently)."  At the end, I asked it to give me the complete prompt I could reuse. Contact me if you want the prompt.

    Earlier, I mentioned how long it took to get from "Zero-to-One" with AI. But don't fret; things are speeding up, and we're just at the beginning of the process. If I created a scale to show the capabilities of AI, and set the endpoint at 100 to represent AI's potential when I die – even though I'm in my early 60s, I'd put us at only a 3 or 4 on that 100-point scale. Meaning, we are at the beginning of one of the biggest and most asymptotic curves that you can imagine. That also means that you're not late. You're early! Even the fact that you're thinking about stuff like this now means that you are massively ahead of most.

    Better Wealth, Health and Self Through Exponential Relationships — Just  Start Go

    The trick isn't to figure out how to use AI or some AI tool. The trick is to keep the main thing the main thing. Build your ability to recognize when and how to use these new capabilities to bring the future forward faster.

    Investing resources into your company is one thing. Realize that there are 1000s of these tools out there, and many more coming. You don't have to build something yourself. It is often faster and better to acquire a tool than it is to spend money on developing and building it.

    Think of the Medici family. They invested in people, which in turn triggered the Renaissance. A key to moving forward in the Age of AI will be to invest in the right WHOs, seeking to create the kind of world you want to see or the types of capabilities you desire. Think of this as a strategic investment into creators and entrepreneurs with a vision or who are on a path that aligns with yours.

    As you get better and better at doing that, you'll see increasing opportunities to use tools to engage people to collaborate with and create joint ventures. Ultimately, you will collaborate with technology (like it's your thought partner and then your business partner). We are entering exciting times where AI, automation, and innovation will make extraordinary things possible for people looking for opportunities to do extraordinary things.

    As my grandmother said, it's easy to get used to nice things.

    Onwards!

  • Skype’s Kodak Moment: Remnants of a Past Era

    Last week, Microsoft announced that Skype would shut down in May … after over two decades of service. 

    Hydrox existed before Oreo, and Betamax before VHS.

    But Skype might be even more surprising. Skype was so ubiquitous that it became a verb and eponymous with video calling. As a world traveler, Skype also used to be the go-to international calling app.

    Imagine if Kleenex, Jell-O, or Band-Aids went out of business. 

    That’s what Skype did – and it’s not the first tech business to fail similarly…

    Thinking Linearly in an Exponential Age

    Humans can’t do a lot of things. Honestly, the fact that we’re at the top of the food chain is pretty miraculous. 

    We’re slow, weak, and famously bad at understanding large numbers or exponential growth

    Making matters worse, our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.

    It’s a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications. 

    Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … RadioShack couldn’t understand a future where shopping was done online – and Kodak didn’t think digital cameras would replace good ol’ film. Blockbuster couldn’t foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes because “part of the joy is seeing all your options!” They didn’t even make it long enough to see “Netflix and Chill” become a thing. The list goes on. 

     

    via Diamandis

    Human perception is linear. Technological growth is exponential.

    There are many examples. Here is one Peter Diamandis calls “The Kodak Moment” (a play on words of “a Kodak Moment”… the phrase Kodak used in advertising to mean a “special moment that’s worth capturing with a camera”). 

    In 1996, Kodak was at the top of its game, with a market cap of over $28 billion and 140,000 employees.

    Few people know that 20 years earlier, in 1976, Kodak had invented the digital camera. It had the patents and the first-mover advantage.

    But that first digital camera was a baby that only its inventor could love and appreciate.

    That first camera took .01 megapixel photos, took 23 seconds to record the image to a tape drive, and only shot in black and white.

    Not surprisingly, Kodak ignored the technology and its implications.

    Fast forward to 2012, when Kodak filed for bankruptcy – disrupted by the very technology that they invented and subsequently ignored.

    171220 Lessons From Kodak

    via Diamandis

    Innovation is a reminder that you can’t be medium-obsessed. Kodak’s goal was to preserve memories. It wasn’t to sell film. Blockbuster’s goal wasn’t to get people in their stores, it was to get movies in homes.  

    Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers, but never asking them what they wanted.

    Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn’t necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.

    Meanwhile, despite Skype having several features that Zoom still hasn’t implemented, Zoom recognized an opportunity during COVID and capitalized. When Microsoft bought Skype, they focused on adding several new features and expanding the range of services instead of improving the quality of their audio or video. Meanwhile, when Zoom entered the space, they brought much better servers and the ability to have much larger rooms. More attendees meant a wider variety of use cases and quicker adoption and referral cycles. They also made it easy to join a Zoom room. Instead of getting your e-mail up front and forcing you to create an account to use it, they let you join a meeting without an account. You only needed an account to host a meeting. 

    They focused on making it easy to use their service and on having a clear identity instead of trying to ride every wave and become unfocused. Of course, at the same time, Microsoft stopped focusing on the tool, with an increased focus on their new competitor to Zoom, Teams

    Tech and AI are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).

    Opportunity or Chaos …  You get to decide.

    Don’t forget … you don’t have to be the first mover to win in the end. 

    Onwards!

  • A Look At Last Week’s Tech Breakthroughs

    We live in exciting times!

    No, I'm not talking about how fast the DOGE team is terraforming government.

    I'm talking about how fast the insights of exponential technologies are compounding the real-world implications of where we are and where we are going.

    In past issues, we've talked about how quickly the world is changing, how fast innovations happen, and why it's not about today's tools but rather the value and capabilities of the foundational assets we build upon … and, ultimately, the things that makes possible.

    Today's commentary is different from our usual posts. Yes, the inspiration came from my weekly curation of links selected based on what captured my attention or imagination. However, today's post is about the sheer volume and density of groundbreaking innovations competing for mindshare and investment dollars. And while commercial success is a great way to keep score, we'll explore what this accelerating pace of innovation means for our future and the world.

     

    In-a-fast-changing-world-focus-on-the-customer-problem

    So, here is a list of some of the things that made headlines this week.

    Some may not matter to you now. Try re-reading the list while letting yourself be amazed at what is happening!

    Any one of these is a momentous achievement that would have sounded like science fiction even 10 years ago. Now, that's one week of achievement. 

    As someone whose company invents things for a living, I understand that none of these breakthroughs were actually invented last week. Obviously, a long and winding road leads to each of those announcements. However, it's remarkable to see so many significant innovations reaching the stage of public announcement simultaneously.

    It's hard to quantify the impact of these innovations on not only the tech industry – but the world. 

    Think about the implications. Google's co-scientist is already solving problems that humans haven't been able to solve for decades. Clone is building robots that will use the next generations of AI to transform how we think about what artificial intelligence looks like. 

    Not to mention the improvement in quantum computing and nuclear fusion, industries that I've been paying attention to since the 90s. 

    While any of these topics would have made a good article, in my opinion, the whole is more impressive than the sum of its parts.

    If I had to pick one of those topics to highlight, I think it's now time to start focusing more on quantum computing. 

    To start, here's an hour-long interview with Satya Nadella about Microsoft's new quantum chip – and what it means for AI & business. 

     

    via Dwarkesh Patel

    Most of you probably aren't interested in watching the whole thing, but here are some of the highlights. 

    • They've created a new state of matter called a topological superconductor.
    • The qubits created with topological superconductors are fast, reliable, and small … very small.
    • These new qubits are 1/100th of a millimeter, meaning we now have a clear path to a million-qubit processor.
    • To put that in perspective, imagine a chip that can fit in the palm of your hand yet can solve problems that even all the computers on Earth today combined can't! 
    • Satya doesn't believe in making claims about how quickly AGI is coming.
    • However, he believes it is useful and productive to set a benchmark of making the world 10% better.
    • He also believes the topological superconductor breakthrough makes quantum computing a practical reality that can happen in a few years – not decades +.

    Prepare for things to get more interesting.

    We do live in exciting times!

  • Investment in AI is Rising …

    It’s no surprise that capital raising is moving toward AI – and often generative AI. 

     

    Proportional bubbles chart showing the capital flows into AI, using data from Pitchbook and Bloomberg

    via visualcapitalist

    From 2023-2024, over $26 billion flowed into the sector – including big deals like Inflection, xAI, and Anthropic

    While many of the biggest investments were in foundational models and infrastructure, some money is now moving into targeted AI applications. 

    AI isn’t just for researchers and the tech giants anymore … it’s becoming more commercial.

    Realistically, AI is overhyped – and there is a lot of competition. Yet, few firms have operationalized AI in a meaningful way. 

    With that said, here is a question worth considering.

    Where are the AI applications capable of generating returns that justify the infrastructure, investment, and focus?

    The next battle will likely be in the AI Applications space. To keep it short, why hasn’t it happened yet … and what will likely create the value we’re looking for?

     

    Why Haven’t AI Apps Taken Off Yet?

      •  Cost vs. Value Gap: Many AI applications are still experimental or add only incremental value.

      •  Compute Bottlenecks: AI compute costs remain expensive, limiting broader adoption.

      •  Enterprise Hesitation: Many companies are still figuring out how to integrate AI into their operations in a way that delivers real ROI.

     

    Where Might the Value Come From?

    For AI investments to pay off, applications must solve big problems, not just serve as experimental tools. The highest-value areas likely include:

      •  AI copilots and automation (Enterprise AI reducing labor costs and bottlenecks)

      •  Autonomous systems (AI for analytics, compliance, and logistics)

      •  AI-driven discovery (Accelerating breakthroughs in capabilities and performance)

      •  Next-gen digital assistants (LLMs with memory, context, and long-term utility)

     

    Right now, AI apps are where mobile apps were in 2008 — there is plenty of potential, but only a handful of genuinely indispensable use cases. 

    Companies like Capitalogix that crack the code on industrial-grade AI applications, will drive the next wave of value creation.

    It’s fun and rewarding to watch artificial intelligence become available to everyone.

    As the cost of “intelligence” decreases, let’s hope more people take advantage of the opportunity.

    However, the sad truth is the opposite is also more likely. As AI becomes more available, it becomes easier for it to become a distraction. 

    Remember the Internet? When it first started, most of the uses were academic. Now, despite there being functionally infinite ways to use the internet to improve your life and make you smarter, most people use it for memes and distractions. 

    When you think about AI, don’t just think about artificial intelligence … Think about amplified intelligence. That is the term I use to distinguish between the technology and what people really want … which is the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continuously improve performance.

    AI isn’t about taking away the humanity from your business or automating away the things you love. It’s about allowing you to be more human – doing more of the things you’re best at – that give you energy and bring you joy.

  • Business Lessons from the NFL

    Today was Super Bowl Sunday 2025. As a fan, I found myself rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles today. But at times, I was rooting for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of respect for the talent and the incredible record they’ve compiled.

    Meanwhile, it also made me think about my home team, the Dallas Cowboys, and how long it’s been since we’ve had any real post-season success. 

    Obviously, the Jones family has done many things right. According to Forbes, for the ninth straight year, the Dallas Cowboys are the world’s most valuable sports team, worth an estimated $10.1 billion — the first to cross the 11-figure threshold and $1.3 billion beyond their closest competition.

    They’ve mastered winning in the business sense, even when they struggle on the field.

    Jerry Jones does a lot right in building his “Disney Ride.” However, this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do to win. 

     

    Business Lessons From the NFL

     

    I’m regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.

    Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.

    Some lessons relate to teamwork, while others relate to coaching or management.

    Some of these lessons stem back to youth football … but I still learn from watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star

    Think about it …  even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart listing the first, second, and third choices to fill specific roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in ways that most businesses don’t.

    The picture below is of my brother’s high school team way back in 1989. While lots have changed since then, much of what we will discuss in this post remains timeless.

     

    Today

     

    Losing to an 8th Grade Team

    The scary truth is that most businesses are less prepared for their challenges than an 8th-grade football team. That might sound disrespectful – but if you think about it … it’s pretty accurate. Here is a short video highlighting what many businesses could learn from observing how organized sports teams operate, particularly in setting goals and effectively preparing for challenges.

    via YouTube.

    If you are skimming, here is a quick summary of the key points in the video.

    Organization and Preparation

    • Structure: Football teams have a clear hierarchy, including a head coach, assistant coaches, and trainers.
    • Practice: Teams engage in regular practice sessions to prepare for games, emphasizing the importance of training.
    • Game Plan: They develop strategies and a game plan before facing opponents, including watching game films to understand their competition.

    Dynamic Strategy

    • Adaptability: Teams adjust their strategies based on the game’s flow, recognizing whether they are on offense or defense.
    • Audibles: Just as a football team may call an audible when faced with unexpected defensive setups, businesses should adapt their strategies in real time.

    Learning From Experience

    • Post-Game Analysis: Coaches review game films to identify what worked and what didn’t, learning from past experiences to improve future performance.
    • Continuous Improvement: Ongoing training is crucial in businesses, similar to how football players receive coaching during practice to enhance their skills.

    Importance of Coaching

    • Role of Coaches: Coaching is crucial for developing talent and focusing on achieving defined goals.
    • Encouragement of Growth: Active coaching leads to better outcomes and overall improvement.

     

    A Deeper Look Into the Lessons

    There is immense value in the structured coaching and preparation that sports teams exemplify. Here are some thoughts to help businesses adopt similar principles that foster teamwork, adaptability, and continuous improvement.

    Vince Lombardi once famously started training camp by announcing, “Gentlemen, this is a football.” He stressed the hidden power of mastering the fundamentals. Beyond that, he believed that how you do something is how you tend to do everything … which led to his famous  quote, “Football is not just a game, but a way of life.”

    So, let’s start at the beginning.

    Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week’s opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.   

    The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.

    In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right … and what they can learn and use later.

    Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic … they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

    The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football – which is ultimately a game – is a valuable lesson for business. 

    What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a typical business, what about the businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team. 

    Let’s look at the Cowboys

     

    Practice Makes Perfect

    How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

    Each time I’ve watched a practice session, I’ve come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

    During practice, there’s a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, each with a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There’s a rhythm, even to the breaks.

    Every minute is scripted. There’s a long-term plan to handle the season … but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

    They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast … but for shorter periods than you’d guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a player’s attention span. They move from drill to drill, working not just on plays but also on skill sets (where are you looking, which foot you plant, how to best use your hands, etc.).

    They use advanced technology to get an edge (including player geolocation monitoring, biometric tracking, medical recovery devices, robotic tackling dummies, and virtual reality headsets). 

    They don’t just film games; they film the practices … and each player’s individual drills. Coaches and players get a personalized cut on their tablets when they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

     

    Beyond The Snap

    The focus is not just on the players and the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch videos of their opponent to understand tendencies and mentally prepare for what will happen.

    During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been expected, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

    After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

    Think about it … everyone knows what game they are playing … and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance and look to others for guidance. 

    Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

    Challenge accepted.

    And, just for fun, here’s a video of me doing a cartwheel after a Dallas Cowboys win.

     

    via YouTube.

    Sports make you do funny things.

    Whether you are watching or playing – Enjoy the game!