Gadgets

  • Gartner’s 2018 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

    With all the "fake news" and manufactured social buzz, it's hard to identify what technologies are reaching maturity and which ones are fads. Gartner's Hype Cycle attempts to solve that problem. 

    What's a "Hype Cycle"?

    As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

    At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It tells us which will survive the hype have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

    Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct, contextually understandable, snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit on the hype cycle.

    Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

    1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
    2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
    3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
    4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
    5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

     

    Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

    What's exciting this year? 

    Currently, people are probably "too" excited about IoT platforms, Deep Learning, and Virtual Assistants. The idea isn't they won't stand the test of the time, but there's an artificial influx of people inflating the adoption numbers. Once the chaff is separated from the wheat – you can expect these to succeed. Autonomous driving, connected homes, and mixed reality have matured past the hype phase. 

    For comparison, here's my article from last year, and here's my article from 2015. Click the chart below to see a larger version of this year's Hype Cycle.

    PR_490866_5_Trends_in_the_Emerging_Tech_Hype_Cycle_2018_Hype_Cycle via Gartner

    This year, Gartner organized the 17 highlighted technologies into 5 encompassing trends:

     

    • Democratized AI (autonomous driving, conversational AI, deep neural nets, etc.) is one of the most disruptive classes of technology. It's becoming more readily available due to open source and cloud computing. There's a burgeoning field of "makers" inspired to push the boundaries of what's possible.  
    • Digitalized Ecosystems ( blockchain, IoT) support emerging technologies by being the foundations for dynamic systems. There's a shift from discrete infrastructure systems to comprehensive ecosystems. Think of blockchains potential impact on tracking and communication.  
    • Do-It-Yourself Biohacking (biotech, biochips, exoskeletons, AR) is something I've talked about before. Dave Asprey is a public face of this movement and we shot a video together last year. The future is bringing implants to extend humans past their perceived limits and increase our understanding of our bodies; biochips with the potential to detect diseases, synthetic muscles, and neural implants. 
    • Transparently Immersive Experiences (connected home, smart dust, volumetric displays) represent the blending of where human stops, work starts, and things exist. Imagine a theoretical smart workspace where electronic whiteboards capture all your notes and disseminate them, sensors let you know where people are and what they're working on, and everything in your office interacts directly with your IT platform. This creates much more contextual and personalized experiences.  
    • Ubiquitous Infrastructure (5G, carbon nanotubes, quantum computing) means that infrastructure is becoming a less competitive advantage. As infrastructure becomes cheaper, more ubiquitous, and faster, it becomes background noise.  

     

    Looking at the overarching trends of this year, it's also fun to look at what technologies are just starting their hype cycle. 

    • Artificial Tissue (Biotech) could be used to repair or replace portions of, or whole, tissues (cartilage, skin, muscle, etc.)
    • Flying Autonomous Vehicles can be used as taxis, but also as transports for other things such as medical supplies, food delivery, etc. Amazon and Uber are likely excited about this development – and expect it in the next couple of years. 
    • Smart Dust opens up the possibility of monitoring essentially everything by creating a vast network of minuscule sensors that can detect various inputs. 
    • Artificial General Intelligence
    • 4D Printing would theoretically allow us to print objects that reshape or self-assemble over time. 

     

    Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

  • Social Media Is Changing Everything: A Reprisal

    I came across a post from 2009 about social media. 10 years later, with the knowledge of how much data we use today, it's quite a read.

    Here it is in its full glory. 

    Social Media Is Changing Everything: October 18th, 2009

    My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

    Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

      • My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
      • I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
      • My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
      • My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

    How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

    But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

    Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

    Welcome to the World of Socialnomics.  This video has a bunch of interesting statistics … and is fun to watch. 

     

     

    Other Resources:

    Social Media Is Changing Everything: April 20th, 2019 

    Looking at the stats from 2009 is pretty funny

    • My son was using 472 MB of data a month
    • Hulu had grown from to 373 million total streams in April 2009
    • Only 25% of Americans in the past month said they watched a short video on their phone

    For some context, I looked up the comparative numbers for 2018. 

    • I picked a random month in 2018 … in August my son used 10.85 GB of data. He doesn't text as often – but has sent/received 282,000 snapchats since downloading it 5 years ago.
    • Hulu has over 20 million subscribers who streamed more than 26 million hours a day in 2018 
    • People spend over five hours a day on their smartphones on average. 70% of web traffic happens on a mobile device, and more than 50% of videos are watched on mobile (93% of twitter videos). 

    Here's what happens every minute of every day on the internet

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    via Lori Lewis and Chadd Callahan

     

    A little different than 2009 …

  • Photographing a Supermassive Black Hole: The Gravity of This Situation is Immeasurable

    The Eye was rimmed with fire, but was itself glazed, yellow as a cat's, watchful and intent, and the black slit of its pupil opened on a pit, a window into nothing. – Frodo seeing Sauron through the Mirror of Galadriel in The Fellowship of the Ring

    The Event Horizon Telescope just released the first-ever image of a black hole … specifically a supermassive black hole with a mass 6.5 billion times heavier than our sun. This behemoth of a black hole is over 50 million light-years away in a galaxy we call M87. The little blob (in the picture below) is 25 billion miles across, and the bright part is brighter than all of the billions of other stars in that galaxy combined.  To put it in context … the black hole, shown below, is larger than our entire Solar System. 

    Here's a link to the original RAW (183 mb) image. 

     

    A-Consensusvia National Science Foundation

    The image shows a bright ring formed as light bends in the intense gravity around a black hole that is 6.5 billion times more massive than the Sun

    In my opinion, the black hole image is even more amazing when you zoom out and see the entire m87 galaxy. The little black dot inside the orange is the black hole.

     

    190414 black-hole-photo-amazing-zoom-out-1200x630

    via NASA/CXC/VILLANOVA UNIVERSITY/J. NEILSEN 

    To take a step back, a black hole is a celestial object that has a gravitational field so strong that light cannot escape it and that is believed to be created especially in the collapse of a very massive star.  It warps spacetime and superheats all surrounding materials. 

    “In space no one can hear you scream; and in a black hole, no one can see you disappear.” 
    ― Stephen Hawking

    Before today, black holes had only been observed indirectly. We had math that "proved it."  Now, we have direct, observable, and corroborated evidence for everyone to see.

    Do you understand the gravity of that? 

    In my lifetime, Black holes have gone from a fringe theory to a possibility, to a probability, and now, to reality.  

    It is amazing to think about how right Einstein's theory of general relativity was … especially considering that he did the math in 1915, before we had the technology and science to back it up.  The basic idea is that the relative velocity of light doesn't change, therefore it must be a constant in our universe. Using his math, we were able to predict how a black hole would "look", and it was supported by the Event Horizon Telescope's image. 

    Veritasium puts understanding the image into better perspective. Check it out. 

     

    via Veritasium 

    For a side note, the first proposal of black holes actually goes back to John Michell in 1784

    "If there should really exist in nature any bodies, whose density is not less than that of the sun, and whose diameters are more than 500 times the diameter of the sun, since their light could not arrive at us; or if there should exist any other bodies of a somewhat smaller size, which are not naturally luminous; of the existence of bodies under either of these circumstances, we could have no information from sight; yet, if any other luminous bodies should happen to revolve about them we might still perhaps from the motions of these revolving bodies infer the existence of the central ones with some degree of probability, as this might afford a clue to some of the apparent irregularities of the revolving bodies, which would not be easily explicable on any other hypothesis; but as the consequences of such a supposition are very obvious, and the consideration of them somewhat beside my present purpose, I shall not prosecute them any further." 

    It took a massive amount of work to produce the photos of the black hole shown in this post. The ingredients: 200 researchers, 20 years, over 9 petabytes of data, 8 telescopes, and immense vision. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, it also took the 104 years of research since Einstein's theory. 

    Powerful stuff. 

    For more:

  • Robocalls and Taxes: These Are A Few Of My Favorite Things

    What're everyone's two favorite things? Paying taxes and receiving robocalls, obviously. 

    Phone scammers used to just target the elderly or those with poor English skills, but today, they go after everyone. In fact, Americans received over 30 billion robocalls last year … and it's only getting worse. Around half of those are "legal," but more and more are scams.

    Those scams increase during tax season. 

    Several of my friends have received calls from the "IRS" demanding immediate payment. That is a scam. The IRS has stated repeatedly, they will not call you asking for your credit card numbers over the phone, they will not threaten lawsuits, and they will not call you unless they've already tried reaching you by mail. 

    According to the FTC, robocall complaints in March and April are 20% higher. They're the icing on the tax season cake. 

     

    Screen Shot 2019-04-05 at 9.24.44 AMvia allareacodes

     

    If increased robocalls weren't enough, you can expect your refund to be 8% lower than last year. Though the average refund is still several thousand dollars, and my home state of Texas can expect the highest returns. 

     

    Tax-refund-by-state-(1)-1eb6

    via HowMuch

    Texas tops the list (Everything IS bigger in Texas) with $3,206 as the average tax refund. Maine inhabitants bottom out the list with $2,336.

    It's worth mentioning that these refunds represent federal figures, and don't take into account any refunds from your state government – meaning there's likely more money flowing back to taxpayers than this map illustrates. 

    What many people don’t understand is that the size of your tax refund isn’t solely based on tax cuts or raises.

    Getting a refund feels like a win, but it represents an interest-free loan to the government for the last year. In an ideal world, you'd have a refund of $0 – meaning you paid exactly what you were supposed to.

    Don't forget to file your taxes (Monday, April 15th is the deadline to file without an extension) and if you want to protect yourself from robocallers, here are some tips: 

    • Don't answer calls from unknown phone numbers – let them go to voicemail and call back if necessary
    • If you do accidentally answer a spam call, don't press any buttons or speak, as that simply alerts them that they've reached a working phone number
    • Don't call a scammer back, and don't engage with them … it's like talking with cops, Anything you say can and will be used against you 
    • To decrease legal calls sign up for the federal and state do not call lists
    • Check out CTIA's tip sheet on How to Stop Robocalls to see a list of apps available to prevent robocalls on your mobile OS

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – April 7th, 2019

    The IRS

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

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  • Sardines in a Tincan Hurtling Through The Air

    I fly a lot.

    In fact, I just hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines. 

     

    190331 HMG ConciergeKey Stats

     

    I don't expect to continue at this place forever … but now is the time to push.

    I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

    Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

    Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

    The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

    Yes, it is true … Status means much less today than it used to.  Every week it feels like they make the space between seats smaller while the time for finding overhead luggage space gets shorter. 

    Yet, the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

     

    Yyng800cpqf21

     

    It looks more like a set from Star Trek then the hellscape passengers complain about on a regular basis. 

    What about the boarding process? 

    Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

     

    via CGP Grey

    If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

     

    via Sam Chui

    You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour … What a bargain!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 31st, 2019

    13chappatte-articleLarge

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Celebrating 30 Years of the Internet [Infographic]

    "The internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow" – Bill Gates

    We take the internet for granted.  Honestly, we take a lot for granted.

    Do you remember a time before cell phones, before the internet, before all these science fiction realities.  Even when the internet started … do you remember dial-up … or when you needed dial-up for each individual site?

    In March of 1989, Tim Berners-Lee published “Information Management: A Proposal” which outlined his vision for what would soon become the World Wide Web. March 12th is the official anniversary.

    In celebration of 30 years of the internet, here’s an infographic on the timeline. Click to see the full thing. 

     

    Edit_AppInstitute-30yearsofwww-infographic
     via AppInstitute

    Think of the impact of that one paper has on so many aspects of our life. 

     

    Information Gathering 

    I remember being in law school, going to the library and scanning through microfiche (or actual books) to study or do research.

    I remember reading encyclopedias (and photocopying relevant articles). 

    I remember paying for newsletters that were mailed to me (or paying extra for fax delivery).

    Having access to more data or faster delivery was a huge advantage.

    Today, you have all the information you could ever ask for at the tip of your fingers … Google and Wikipedia are just the tip of the iceberg.

    There is almost too much information now.  It is hard to separate the signal from the noise.  It seems like anyone can find justification for almost anything.  The result is lots of data, but too little knowledge.

    Part of what is needed is a way to help people make better decisions about what to trust, what it means, and what to use.

     

    Social Interaction

    People record every moment, every intimate detail of their lives online, contrasted by a fear of strangers and letting children roam. 

    While riding around the neighborhood on your bike to see if your friends could come out to play is by no means outlawed – it does seem passé. 

    Chat rooms, Facebook, Online multi-player … many people's key friendships are born and kept online. 

    I remember my son, 13 years old at the time,  sending 10,000+ texts a month and thinking it was a phase. I was wrong. 

    The internet has radically changed the structure of relationships – for better, or often worse. 

     

    Privacy ( … or the lack of it)

    One of the biggest changes is that we as individuals have become productized. We take advantage of all these free resources at the cost of being pixeled and cookied into oblivion. We've chosen convenience over safety. 

    Remember, if you’re not paying for a product – you are the product.

    Little bits of our private information, demographics, and psychographics are sold to advertisers to create smarter ads, new offers, and realistically we have very little control over that.

    It’s been proven time and time again that these giants like Google and Facebook will find ways to sneak your data to advertisers even when it’s “illegal” with a slap on the wrist.

    Data protection is a massive issue not only for corporations but for individuals. While many companies are trying to manage your privacy while still monetizing your data, there are just as many companies who couldn’t care less.

    The GPDR – while frustrating for many – is a step towards protecting individuals.

    Every action has a reaction, and every benefit has a cost. The internet is an amazing tool – but it can also be a weapon. 

     

    What will the next 30 years of the internet hold?

    "The Internet will disappear. There will be so many IP addresses, so many devices, sensors, things that you are wearing, things that you are interacting with, that you won't even sense it. It will be part of your presence all the time. Imagine you walk into a room, and the room is dynamic. And with your permission and all of that, you are interacting with the things going on in the room." — Eric Schmidt

    It has been 30 years since inception, and there's radical growth. 

    We’ve gone from bit speeds to megabyte speeds. We’ve gone from crappy-quality video taking hours to download to streaming HD quality video live.

    How do imagine that the internet will evolve?

    What influence do you think the Internet of Things will have?

    It’s hard to foresee how innovation and regulation will change the internet, but it’s clear there will be change.

    We live in exciting times!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 17th, 2019

    The US grounded the Boeing 737 Max after similarities between two crashes. It's good they did, safety first, but it definitely caused some headaches coming back from Saskatchewan.  There's an interesting thought experiment here to understand the complexities that the airlines had to solve.

    Imagine a 737 holds 200 people and does 4 or 5 flights a day. American has 24 737s in its fleet. That means each day ~24,000 people are displaced on American Airlines alone. They're replacing those planes with smaller regional jets – meaning more flights, more small airports, and more delays. The logistical/supply chain dynamics are a nightmare. 

     

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

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  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 17th, 2019

    NASA's Mars Opportunity Rover has officially lost contact with earth after a fierce dust storm. Its last message was "My battery is getting low and it's getting dark." The rover's original mission was scheduled for 90 days … it lasted 14 years. 

     

    Opportunity_rover_2xvia XKCD

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

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