Food and Drink

  • The Illusion of Choice

    What happens doesn't matter nearly as much as what you make it mean … and what you choose to do. 

    For example, Dallas has been 100+ degrees almost all summer, and nothing stops.  You'll see people running outside, dogs walking, sports being played.  My son plays 8+ hour rugby tournaments in that heat, and no one bats an eye. 

    Growing up in New England, we were woefully underprepared for that heat.  The world would stop.  On the other hand, 8 inches of snow was nothing, but a little bit of ice … and Texas shuts down. 

    Snow isn't 'good' or 'bad' … and neither was the change of plans.


    Perspective.

    Fund managers recognize the importance of sensibly diversifying risks and opportunities.

    Be that as it may, as Mother Jones reported in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis, the nation's ten largest financial institutions held 54% of our total financial assets (compared to the 20% they held in 1990).  Meanwhile, the number of banks has dropped from almost 15,000 to barely 4,000. 

    Infographic: U.S. Banking System: The Great Consolidation | Statista

    via Statista

    Many people are shocked by a chart like this.  It must be 'bad' to have so much controlled by so few, right? 

    But it isn't hard to find a version of this story playing out in other industries:  Print Media,  Music,  Broadcast Channels, and Consumer Products … this type of consolidation happens for a reason.

    A firm that marshals more resources gains a competitive advantage and has more ways to win.

    They benefit from economies of scale, transactional leverage, better distribution and partners, and more ways to diversify risks.  In addition, if they work to communicate, collaborate, and coordinate their actions (and data), they can unlock opportunities that others don't have (or can't see).

    Here is a Chart Showing Some of the 'Winners' at that Game.

    The following chart highlights our "Illusion of Choice."  A surprisingly significant portion of what you buy comes from one of these ten mega-companies (Kraft, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Kellogg's, Nestlé, Proctor & Gamble, Mars, Johnson & Johnson, General Mills, and Unilever).

    It's amazing to see what these giants own or influence.  Click the picture to see a bigger version.

    The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

    via visualcapitalist

    Here is a more specific example.  You probably think you are familiar with Nestlé.  It is famous for chocolate.  But did you realize it was an almost $300 billion corporation … and the biggest food company in the world?  Nestlé owns nearly 8,000 different brands worldwide and takes a stake in (or is partnered with) many others.  This network includes shampoo company L'Oreal, baby food giant Gerber, clothing brand Diesel, and pet food makers Purina and Friskies.

    Kind of cool?  Mostly terrifying…

  • Happy Father’s Day 2023

    This year, Father's Day was smaller than usual.  My wife, Jennifer, is in Indonesia, and my older son is on the west coast. 

    Meanwhile, my younger son, Zach, took me to one of our favorite Asian restaurants with his new Fiancée, Sloane. 

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    I've been calling her my daughter-in-law since he brought her home (because some things are inevitable and easy to recognize). 

    Reflecting on the past year, I'm grateful for my granddaughter (from my married son, Ben, and his wife).  And, I'm also grateful that Zach and Sloane got engaged and started to plan the rest of their lives together (and hopefully more grandchildren for me). 

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    As a father, having great kids is a double blessing.  On one hand, it's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  On the other hand, it's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.  

    Of course, I also look back … and spent some time thinking about my father and his terrific influence on so many lives.  

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards are met, it is easy to get distracted by other things (and figuring out how to meet the minimum standards for them as well).

    He was also my best friend. 

    I see so much of him in myself, and in my children, and many of the aphorisms I teach come from him.  I'm grateful that I can still see his impact on the world. 

    Hope you had a nice Father's Day weekend too. 

  • The Big Mac Index: Worth Paying Attention To?

    Last week, I wrote about various “indicators” for markets that just don’t make sense — like the Superbowl Indicator.  The lesson from those indicators is that we crave order and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable, even where there are none.  This is especially true in complex systems like the stock market, where so many variables and factors are at play that it can be difficult to predict or explain why things happen.

    Now, it doesn't mean there aren't patterns – and benefits to watching them. Warren Buffet has proven that. In order to improve your understanding of "markets" you can focus on the fundamentals of individual companies and industries rather than broader market trends. By conducting thorough research and analysis of financials, management, and competitive landscapes of companies, you can make informed decisions about which stocks to buy or sell. Another way to improve your understanding of the market is to focus on long-term trends and avoid getting caught up in short-term fluctuations.  It's about focusing on what doesn't change – instead of what does. But, ultimately, you should realize that if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one. And, market movements are getting faster, more automated, and harder to predict over time, not less. 

    With that said, Wall Street is still inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy.  More people than you would hope, or guess, attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, and prayers.

    While hope and prayer are good things … they aren’t good trading strategies.

    It’s true that there are many indices and economic indicators that can provide valuable insights into the workings of economies and markets.  While some of these indices may seem “out there,” or even frivolous, they can often shed light on underlying economic trends and realities.

    One example of this is the Big Mac Index, which is published annually by The Economist.  This index is based on the idea of purchasing power parity, which suggests that exchange rates should adjust to ensure that the price of a basket of goods is the same in different countries.  The Big Mac Index uses the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac burger as a proxy for this basket of goods.  It compares the price of a Big Mac in different countries to determine whether currencies are overvalued or undervalued.

    While the Big Mac Index is not a perfect measure of purchasing power parity, it can provide valuable insights into the relative value of different currencies and the economic factors that influence exchange rates.  By looking beyond the headline numbers, and digging into the underlying data and trends, investors and economists can gain a deeper understanding of the forces shaping the global economy.

    Ultimately, the key to using economic indicators like the Big Mac Index is to approach them with a critical eye and a willingness to dig deeper.  By looking beyond the surface level and using data-driven analysis to understand the underlying trends and drivers of economic performance, we can gain a more accurate picture of the economic realities shaping the world around us.

    In 2020, when I last talked about the Big Mac Index, the Swiss Franc was 20.9% overvalued based on the PPP rate.  That math was based on the idea that, in Switzerland, a Big Mac costs 6.50 francs.  In the U.S., it costs $5.71.  The implied exchange rate was 1.14, and the actual exchange rate was 0.94 – thus, 20.9 was overvalued.  At the time, the most undervalued was South Africa. 

    As of the end of 2022, The Swiss Franc is still the most overvalued but has now increased to a whopping 35.4%.  Meanwhile, the South African rand has “increased” to only 45.9% undervalued, making the Egyptian Pound the most undervalued currency at 65.6%.

    Click the image below to see the interactive graphic.

    Screen Shot 2023-02-17 at 3.45.08 PM

    via The Economist

    One of the main limitations of the index is that the price of a Big Mac reflects non-tradable elements such as rent and labor, which can vary widely across different countries and can distort the accuracy of the index.  This means that the index is most useful when comparing countries that are at roughly the same stage of development and have similar economic structures and cost of living. Consequently, while it can provide some useful insights into exchange rates and currency values, it is important to recognize that it is only a rough guide and has some limitations when comparing countries.

    Another limitation of the index is that it does not consider factors such as taxes, trade barriers, and transportation costs, which can also affect the relative value of currencies.  These factors can be especially important in countries highly dependent on imports or exports. They can lead to significant disparities in currency values that are not reflected in the Big Mac Index.

    Despite these limitations, the Big Mac Index can still be useful for gaining insights into global economic trends and currency values.  By using the index in conjunction with other economic indicators and data sources, investors and economists can achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the forces shaping the global economy and make more informed decisions about how to invest their money.

    Obviously, there are more factors at play if something can be significantly overvalued or undervalued for multiple years without significant consequences. 

    It is not meant to be the most precise gauge, but it works as a global standard because Big Macs are global and have consistent ingredients and production methods.  It’s lighthearted enough to be a good introduction for college students learning more about economics. 

    You can read more about the Big Mac index here or read the methodology behind the index here.

  • The Twelve Days of Christmas …

    Most people know the song about the 12 Days of Christmas, but here's an interesting visualization of what presents were gifted by "their true love." 

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    via Neil R Kaye

     

    I don't know about you … but that's a ton of birds. Probably too many. Forty gold rings doesn't sound too bad (and less likely to become worthless than the NFTs they thought about substituting here). 

    All together pretty noisy. 

    Hopefully, you bought presents that your partner would actually enjoy. 

  • Merry Chrismakkuh

    Today is Christmas … and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

    For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

    That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

    To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

    Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out – here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

    The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

    Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

    MicrosoftTeams-image (3)

    I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – October 16th, 2022

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Living Longer And Healthier

    I am on my way back from Dave Asprey’s BioHacking Conference.

    I enjoy going and being exposed to people and products committed to life extension and regenerative medicine.  

    Here are some of the things I found interesting and useful.

    I own and use every product on the list above. One of my biggest insights from this year’s conference was that I already have great stuff. I have to remember to use it. Some of the stuff is terrific. I know it is. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t sit unused in a room upstairs (or in a box under my stairs). The scary thing is that I know better.  Now I have to do better!

    Each year I get a little bit more focused on what I can be doing to get more out of my time and to increase the quantity of time left.

    Even with a renewed focus on health, it isn’t always easier. As my friend Ben Hardy says, Willpower Doesn’t Work – you have to identify goals that are bigger than yourself, create consequences and rewards for achieving or failing to achieve those goals, and change your environment to make success easy.  

    I don’t just want to be healthier to increase my time on earth, but to better support my family, my business, and to create a positive impact on those around me. 

    When you have a vision of who you want to be, and what you want to accomplish, achieving your goals becomes a lot easier. 

    When the goal is health, there are definitely some decisions that are proven to help. You can click to see the image in full-size. 

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    via informationisbeautiful

    On top of the science, here are some of my anecdotal opinions on living longer, healthier, and better:

    • Losing weight is as simple as calories in, calories out. It doesn’t matter if you’re on keto or eating only twinkies if you can keep your calories ingested below your calories burned. An equally simple alternative is to consider whether what you are about to eat, drink, or do is “cleansing” or “clogging”.  We already know better!
    • Getting enough water and sleep are tips echoed so much that they get annoying. Nonetheless, they are true and help significantly. 
    • In life, and in diets, shortcuts end up hurting you long-term more than they help you short-term.  If something is worth doing, it is usually worth doing right.
    • Living “right” doesn’t mean you can’t let loose … it means that it’s the exception instead of the rule. If your lifestyle doesn’t let you have fun with your friends or family, it’s probably not the healthiest lifestyle. Mental health is just as important as physical health.  From my perspective, deprivation or repression are far less effective or sustainable than delayed gratification.

    I’d love to hear your favorite “trick” to living better. Feel free to send me an e-mail. 

    Thanks! Live Long and Prosper!

  • Snake-Oil or Cure? Do Your Supplements Actually Help?

    Are you trying to lead a healthier lifestyle?  This data visualization can help you filter out the marketing hype to help you find the vitamins, minerals, and herbs that deliver tangible benefits … versus those that serve only as a "Guaranteed Genuine Placebo".

    Here is an interactive model of the most current research data.  It is interesting because of the health research itself … and because models (like this) have far-reaching applications.  Click the image to play with the interactive version on InformationIsBeautiful.

     

    Screen Shot 2022-09-04 at 10.41.12 AMvia InformationIsBeautiful

     

    I was surprised to see how many of the supplements I take weren't high on the list.  I was also surprised to find a few effective supplements on the list that I don't take. 

    Some of you have seen how many supplements I take a day.  I take so many pills that I split them up into morning, lunch, dinner, and bedtime.  Despite that, I always like finding what else might help. 

    As a reminder, supplements are meant to support your health goals, and the secret to longevity is not going to be found without you also putting in the work yourself. 

    Regardless, I appreciated this look at the performance data behind various supplements. 

    Let me know if you find something you think is worth sharing.

  • Finding Ikigai In Increasingly Stressful Times

    I just read that they sell more adult diapers than baby diapers in Japan.

    Getting old is tough … and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life become increasingly important. 

    The past couple of years have been a period of massive upheaval for many.  Reasons for this include stress, change, pandemics, quarantine, new jobs, new goals … or, at the other end of the spectrum, lack of change, lack of a job, or lack of purpose.

    Most people know that life is much better than the alternative (and that life becomes even better when you learn to enjoy living and let go of what isn't serving you).  Consequently, it makes sense to understand and search for the things that bring you pleasure or fulfillment.

    A Japanese concept called "Ikigai" may help better define your motivating force and the things that give you a sense of purpose or a reason for living.

    Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older.  Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

    Here is an infographic that lays out some "Reasons for Being."

    IIB-Ikigai-1

    via InformationIsBeautiful

    Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose are keys to making the most of your time.

    The beauty of 2022 being a fresh start is that you can also change your approach and your vision.

    The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) … When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it … but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

    Worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

    On a related note, this TEDx talks about the nine common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100.

     

    TED-ED via YouTube

    And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's free e-book on his plan to live to 156. 

    Live long and prosper!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – May 1st, 2022

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links: