Unsurprisingly, almost half of consumer spending goes toward housing and transportation.
While this has slightly outpaced inflation, it hasn’t by much.
Meanwhile, spending in some areas surged well beyond wage and overall inflation levels. For example, Americans spend 21% more on food than in 2021. A closer look shows that the cause isn’t just inflation. Food and beverage companies increased their operating profits by 79% from 2019-2023.
Educational spending and healthcare spending are also rising.
How do you think the Trump administration’s actions will impact the economy and the wallets of typical Americans?
Many of my close friends and advisors are optimistic about the Trump administration’s actions and expected impacts. However, as I’ve often noted regarding technological change, people are good at noticing big turning points – but struggle with predictions about the second and third-order consequences of these shifts.
Today was Super Bowl Sunday 2025. As a fan, I found myself rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles today. But at times, I was rooting for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of respect for the talent and the incredible record they’ve compiled.
Meanwhile, it also made me think about my home team, the Dallas Cowboys, and how long it’s been since we’ve had any real post-season success.
They’ve mastered winning in the business sense, even when they struggle on the field.
Jerry Jones does a lot right in building his “Disney Ride.” However, this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do to win.
Business Lessons From the NFL
I’m regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.
Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.
Some lessons relate to teamwork, while others relate to coaching or management.
Some of these lessons stem back to youth football … but I still learn from watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star.
Think about it … even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart listing the first, second, and third choices to fill specific roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in ways that most businesses don’t.
The picture below is of my brother’s high school team way back in 1989. While lots have changed since then, much of what we will discuss in this post remains timeless.
Losing to an 8th Grade Team
The scary truth is that most businesses are less prepared for their challenges than an 8th-grade football team. That might sound disrespectful – but if you think about it … it’s pretty accurate. Here is a short video highlighting what many businesses could learn from observing how organized sports teams operate, particularly in setting goals and effectively preparing for challenges.
If you are skimming, here is a quick summary of the key points in the video.
Organization and Preparation
Structure: Football teams have a clear hierarchy, including a head coach, assistant coaches, and trainers.
Practice: Teams engage in regular practice sessions to prepare for games, emphasizing the importance of training.
Game Plan: They develop strategies and a game plan before facing opponents, including watching game films to understand their competition.
Dynamic Strategy
Adaptability: Teams adjust their strategies based on the game’s flow, recognizing whether they are on offense or defense.
Audibles: Just as a football team may call an audible when faced with unexpected defensive setups, businesses should adapt their strategies in real time.
Learning From Experience
Post-Game Analysis: Coaches review game films to identify what worked and what didn’t, learning from past experiences to improve future performance.
Continuous Improvement: Ongoing training is crucial in businesses, similar to how football players receive coaching during practice to enhance their skills.
Importance of Coaching
Role of Coaches: Coaching is crucial for developing talent and focusing on achieving defined goals.
Encouragement of Growth: Active coaching leads to better outcomes and overall improvement.
A Deeper Look Into the Lessons
There is immense value in the structured coaching and preparation that sports teams exemplify. Here are some thoughts to help businesses adopt similar principles that foster teamwork, adaptability, and continuous improvement.
Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week’s opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.
The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.
In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right … and what they can learn and use later.
Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic … they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together.
The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football – which is ultimately a game – is a valuable lesson for business.
What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a typical business, what about the businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team.
How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right.
Each time I’ve watched a practice session, I’ve come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.
During practice, there’s a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, each with a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There’s a rhythm, even to the breaks.
Every minute is scripted. There’s a long-term plan to handle the season … but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.
They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast … but for shorter periods than you’d guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a player’s attention span. They move from drill to drill, working not just on plays but also on skill sets (where are you looking, which foot you plant, how to best use your hands, etc.).
They use advanced technology to get an edge (including player geolocation monitoring, biometric tracking, medical recovery devices, robotic tackling dummies, and virtual reality headsets).
They don’t just film games; they film the practices … and each player’s individual drills. Coaches and players get a personalized cut on their tablets when they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson.
Beyond The Snap
The focus is not just on the players and the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch videos of their opponent to understand tendencies and mentally prepare for what will happen.
During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been expected, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems.
After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.
Think about it … everyone knows what game they are playing … and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance and look to others for guidance.
Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.
Challenge accepted.
And, just for fun, here’s a video of me doing a cartwheel after a Dallas Cowboys win.
The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market, and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, for those who care more about markets than football, you’d be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles.
There is one big caveat (among lots of others) … it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that’s where they got their start.
If you accept that, the Super Bowl Indicator has about a 68% success rate. Sounds good, right?
Come on … you know better.
Here are some other “fun” stock market indicators:
Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common. We also probably intuitively understand correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem slightly more predictable.
The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful.
Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.
More people than you would hope (or guess) attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, or prayers.
While hope and prayer are good things … they aren’t good trading strategies.
As goofy as it sounds, some of these “far-fetched” theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.
To get a better perspective, here is a thought experiment to try.
What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 in any given year?
… Then, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?
The answer is that, on average, less than 33% of active managers beat the S&P in any given year. Last year, 43% beat the Index. Even more interesting is that over a 15-year period, the numbers drop much further. Depending on who is measured, only 12% of active managers and about 5% of U.S. Equity Funds beat the S&P over a 15-year period.
Here are a couple of things to consider when you evaluate those statistics. First, market statistics represent predominantly bull market periods (and underperformance tends to spike during bear markets). Second, the statistics mentioned were for professional traders and funds (and most retail traders do considerably worse than that). Third, and perhaps most importantly, the implication is that professional traders’ “intelligent” choices often turn out worse than chance. That means something they’re doing is hurting performance (rather than helping it).
Every now and then, a moment comes along that forces everyone to stop and rethink what they thought they knew. DeepSeek—a relatively unknown AI startup—just delivered one of those moments.
Imagine this: last week, a company most people had never heard of claimed to have built a cutting-edge AI model for just $5.6 million – and they made it open source. Meanwhile, industry giants like Meta, Google, and OpenAI spend hundreds of millions—sometimes billions—on similar efforts. The implications are massive, and investors felt it immediately.
Within hours, Nvidia’s stock price plunged 16.86%, wiping out over $600 billion in market value. Other AI-heavy stocks followed suit. The reaction? Panic, speculation, and a flood of questions:
Have we been overpaying for AI development?
Is brute-force scaling the wrong path?
What does this mean for the balance of power in the AI world?
What’s happening here isn’t just a new startup making waves. It’s a fundamental shift in how AI is built—and it could change the competitive landscape for years to come.
What makes DeepSeek different?
To me, the main point is that, until recently, AI companies have been treating LLMs like an arms race—the more GPUs, the better. That’s part of why LLMs have become so expensive. Meanwhile, DeepSeek took an efficiency-first approach that reduced computational waste and more efficiently used GPU resources.
This type of disruption will become increasingly frequent across all industries. Exponential technologies are accelerating innovation cycles and opening unexpected development paths. While these discontinuous innovations may seem like isolated surprises, they’re becoming a fundamental part of the competitive landscape. The key isn’t to react to each disruption individually – it’s to develop better strategies for operating in this rapidly evolving environment.
In this case, Deepseek’s breakthrough wasn’t about doing more of what its competitors were good at. Instead, they thought of something else they could do to well to compete. Their breakthrough wasn’t about power … it was about perspective. It is a good reminder and blueprint to study.
Some think the key message is that businesses no longer need to stock up on Nvidia’s best GPUs to have an advantage. Even if that is true, it begs the question: Will the demand for high-end GPUs decline if AI processing needs start shrinking? Asked another way, if other AI companies also use efficiency-first architecture, will Nvidia’s dominance weaken?
From my perspective, the answer is that Nvidia will continue to grow. I’m excited about a world where the companies that can afford to spend the most money don’t necessarily win. Increased accessibility to high-performing AI models means more entrepreneurs can join the space and create new businesses with novel approaches. Ultimately, many more businesses will build AI into their infrastructure, and chip sales will continue to expand.
AI isn’t just about computing power anymore – it’s about creativity and utility, too. Constraints have always bred innovation, and as companies begin to do more with less, I think you’ll see a shift in the balance of power.
What about America and data privacy?
Despite my excitement about the AI boom, there are valid privacy fears. When I discussed TikTok a few weeks ago, it was clear that the U.S. was taking a stronger stand on protecting its citizens from foreign interference. DeepSeek presents challenges.
To start, it does censor content deemed sensitive by the Chinese government – that also means that particular historical and political topics are met with ambiguous or sanitized responses.
It collects all of your user inputs, any personal information you share, and technical details like your keystroke patterns. They do explicitly tell you this in their Terms of Service. The data is stored in China, raising concerns about legal oversight and privacy laws.
You likely have very little recourse if your data is accessed by or shared with external entities.
My Thoughts
First, DeepSeek is undoubtedly exciting. Even if they’ve embellished their story, the result is impressive. However, it’s also not the end of Nvidia or American-based AI companies.
Knowing when to sprint and when to jog is an important skill.
AI is shaping our digital world, and DeepSeek is a massive force function in the industry. It is ultimately a good thing for AI (yes, even the Chinese competition).
However, you should probably ask yourself if the benefits of using Deepseek outweigh the risks.
When I coach people on using generative AI, I’ve always urged caution about sharing your sensitive IP with publicly hosted GPTs. Even with OpenAI or Meta, there are clear risks.
It’s also clear that China isn’t the only entity trying to track you or better use your data. As a reminder, if you don’t know how someone is making money off a product … you’re the product. They’re commoditizing you and your data.
That being said, It’s important to be proactive, and it seems to become even more important every week. The landscape is shifting so quickly.
Even so, you have time.
Being proactive also means being smart. As a user of the tools, you don’t need to switch to DeepSeek. Even as a non-tech entrepreneur, now is the time to explore the AI uses that excite you, not to force big leaps.
If you’re like me and are an entrepreneur in the space, you should certainly take the lessons from DeepSeek and think about how to apply these ideas in your ecosystem.
But my #1 lesson for AI adoption is the same as my #1 lesson for building any habit: Start small – and start in a way that gives you energy.
Humans are good at seeing big changes on the horizon but notoriously bad at predicting what those changes will be.
The goal isn’t to be so fast that you beat everyone else … just to be fast enough not to be left behind.
Her children surprised her with over 60 family and friends at dinner last night. Here is a photo of us with her at the party.
My mom is quite the woman. She went to Cornell, taught Spanish Literature at Temple University, and has volunteered for countless good causes. At 40, as her kids became more self-sufficient, she decided to go to law school and become a lawyer to help those who needed it most. That doesn't even begin to capture it! For example, she still serves as a museum docent and is an active member of many clubs and organizations. In addition, after my Dad died, she chose to serve as a hospice counselor to help families going through that difficult time. After doing that for a while, she decided that she wanted to continue – but in a more positive way. So, to help make things better and easier to bear, she became a clown to bring light to people struggling. That is not a sentence I imagined writing a few years ago.
My mom also loves poems, wordplay, and puzzles.
As part of her celebration, we had everyone (OK, almost everyone) write poems for her.
I did not write a poem (though I did write something) … and I also chose not to use ChatGPT (or any other large language model) to help with what I wrote.
I feel like I should explain that. What I did write, came from the heart.
If my goal had simply been to come up with a poem, I would have used ChatGPT or one of its competitors. The truth is, many people at the event did exactly that, and I was surprised at the quality of their output.
With that said, there's something meaningful about the process of thinking deeply about something (in this case, my Mother) and choosing which things to highlight (or set aside), what to poke fun at, and which things to express gratitude for. The act of thinking and writing is valuable … separate and apart from the output generated.
The same is true for your life as well. Being and Doing are both important.
Your identity and strategies combine to create the life you are living. Said a different way, the things you choose to focus on (and what you make them mean) shape your perspective and guide your actions.
That is also why it's vitally important to consciously create a compelling future that calls you forward (and keep score by tracking your progress in ways that resonate with your values).
Here is a small excerpt from my love note to my Mother.
The Golden rule says “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” But sometimes, it’s important to remember to be as kind to yourself as you are to others.
As I think about you and what I wish for you, Mom, it’s that you’re as kind and understanding to yourself as you’ve been to those around you.
It’s important to recognize the progress you’ve made with the good you’ve done, rather than what could have or should have happened – or how many things you still feel the need to do.
I think one of the most useful definitions of “intelligence” is that it is the ability to get more of what you want – and for you, Mom, I think that is a sense of happiness, contentment, and purpose. In your words – a Happy Heart.
Happy Birthday, Mom … and many more!
I suspect we all know the power of purpose. With a big enough WHY, the HOWs don't seem to matter.
The average age at this party was probably 80 – and at least one of them was 100! Think how important it is for them to have a sense of purpose and accomplishment!!
But if it is important for them … it is probably more important to you because of something I call The Time Value of Life (which we'll discuss next week).
Carl Sagan was an astronomer and planetary scientist whose most enduring legacy lies in his extraordinary ability to communicate complex ideas to the general public.
66% of companies on the S&P ended up in positive territory this year. The S&P also had its best two-year stretch since the late 90s.
Communication Services usurped IT’s #1 spot, driven primarily by Meta & Google. Strong consumer spending and digital ad revenue brought ad spending to almost $400 billion.
Materials was the only sector to see negative returns, hampered by China’s economic slowdown and increased interest rates.
Here is a more global look at return by asset class.
Driven by that end-of-year run, Bitcoin surged to all-time highs, and gold also saw its best performance in 14 years. Meanwhile, bonds suffered heavily amid reflationary concerns and a potential widening deficit under the Trump administration.
In 2024, I predicted a brief market correction, blamed on various geopolitical instabilities and partisan weaknesses, followed by a long and steady push higher as the November elections approached.
How did that prediction hold up? I'd say pretty well.
On one level, I try not to think about or predict markets (because I know better). On another level, sometimes I can’t help myself …
Part of me is so bullish about AI (and its impact on other things) that it’s hard to maintain objectivity. With that said, I think we’ll have another decent year. However, I expect increased volatility and noise.
What do you expect for 2025?
Do you think the continued investment into generative AI will impact these trends?
Will cryptocurrency continue to explode? What scenarios do you think have the potential to be force multipliers?
A few weeks ago, I shared an article about annual planning (and how Capitalogix does it.)
This week, I want to discuss setting and meeting goals.
I'm a big-picture guy, and I spend a lot of my time thinking about longer-term possibilities, but it's also important to think about your strategy for the coming year. I tend to break that up by Quarters. Lower timeframes than that are more tactical, and I consider that short-term planning or scheduling.
I think of it like using a map. To find the best route, you must start by figuring out where you are and where you want to be.
Activity, alone, isn't as important as many people hope. Think of it this way … from where you are, there are infinite potential paths – but motion in a particular direction isn't "progress" if it doesn't take you toward your desired destination.
The right action is far more valuable than merely taking action … and that means beginning with the end in mind. You are unlikely to hit the target if you aren't aiming at it.
Resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen. It's one thing to hope that something happens; it's another to commit to making it happen.
With that said, here are some tips.
Focus on What You Want.
Focus on Why You Want It.
Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
Focus on Evidence of Progress.
Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.
Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.
Like many people, I have three distinct collections of clothes: my "fat clothes," what I'm currently wearing, and my aspirational wardrobe. This personal reality reflects how our current state often sits between where we've been and where we want to go. Before I started getting healthy, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight." Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translated that to something a tad more positive yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital and to live a healthy lifestyle."
Blah, blah … They are just words. What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable. How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner?" OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do. I can do better than that—and I need to—if I want to commit to the outcome.
Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.
This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques for setting empowering goals and plans in any situation.
So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum. In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.
I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully. The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends. However, to do those things, I must find better and more sustainable ways to live a healthy lifestyle.
The WHYs are just as important for business goals, too.
Focus on Potential Solutions Rather than Problems or Challenges.
Obstacles Exist. The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables). My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports. I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and being the CEO of a startup is stressful. The good news: none of those things matter, and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.
It is natural to focus on obstacles, but most obstacles are surmountable—with a big enough WHY, I might even choose to start eating vegetables. Instead of dwelling on limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions. They are beacons pointing the way.
How do you do it? To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not-To-Do.
Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:
I will drink more water than coffee.
I will stretch or do basic calisthenics on days I don't go to the gym.
I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack or mini-meal.
I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.
Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.
I will not buy bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do. Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.
Create Healthier Habits.
It is easy to follow a routine. So, here's another tip … make your routine better. Here are some examples of things you could do to make 'being healthier' happen with less effort.
Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
Enjoy listening to music or a book/podcast during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
Choose to walk the dogs or park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than at a bar or restaurant.
You get the idea. Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits. What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference? Which things can you automate or outsource?
In this case, it really is about the journey. Instead of tracking how far you have to go … notice how far you've come. Utilize an internal locus of control. It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility. You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind. That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.
Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
Run more than two laps without stopping.
It doesn't matter what they are … they all count as long as you know you are moving in the right direction.
Summary
The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness. These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation. The principles are:
First, determine what you want and why it is important. Then, focus on only the few things that are truly important to you.
Second, find something you can do right now that will move you in the right direction.
Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy. Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
Fourth, plan forward but measure backward. Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.
In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – defining what we want, why it's important, and the basic strategy to achieve it. Then, we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision. Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) or OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) that measure evidence of success. Doing those things lets the team know where to spend their time and whether they're on the right track.
It isn't magic, but it works.
Hope this helped.
If you're interested, here are a few more articles I've written on health and longevity.
via visualcapitalist
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