As kids gear-up to go back to school, here is photo showing that some people need it more than others.
According to this story, a road contractor hired to paint the word "school" on a freshly paved stretch of road near Southern Guilford High School in North Carolina rendered the traffic area in question a "shcool" zone.
Tracking the Hindenburg Omen: How Much Danger Is There?
"Friday the 13th" got a little scarier than normal as warnings were heard from many corners of the financial blogosphere that the Hindenburg Omen triggered.
What is it? It is a fairly obscure technical analysis pattern, which supposedly gives an early warning of unstable market conditions (and even potentially stock market crashes).
While the calculation is based on five factors, the primary conditions indicate that there is a big disagreement about market conditions.
For example, two of the conditions are that a substantial number of stocks have to be at yearly highs, while a substantial number of stocks have to be at new annual lows. Ultimately, it is hard for those two conditions to be met in a short period of time, unless there's uncertainty in the market. Moreover, after a rally, uncertainty is often a precursor to a decline.
In addition, technically (in order for the pattern to be complete), a second sighting of the five elements must occur within 36 days. Logically, lingering uncertainty is a momentum killer.
While this pattern has correctly predicted every big stock market swoon of the past two decades, including the October 2008 decline (that set the global economic recession into motion), not every Hindenburg Omen has been followed by a crash. Resorting to a geometry analogy: All rectangles are squares, but not all squares are rectangles.
Personally, I don't make trade decisions based solely on indicators like this. Nonetheless, it has a pretty good track record, seems to be based on reasonable theories, and might be useful as just another data point urging caution.
Tough Week for World Markets.
Taking a macro view, many markets around the world went down last week. Notably, the NASDAQ was down 5%, the Nikkei was down 4%, and many other indices were down 3%.
Here in America, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee startled financial markets by raising its terror alert level over the economy and declaring it would keep buying bonds to maintain its loose-money stance and fight deflation. Despite the promise of help, the markets continued lower.
Let's Look at a Chart of the S&P.
What does a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index show? Price has retreated from the resistance area (marked by the pink highlight). In addition, price has gapped below the up-trend line (marked by the green line). Combine that with a negative divergence in MACD momentum, and the picture is technically weaker than before.
Bulls are looking for an oversold rally. Bears are looking at the unfilled gaps as breakaway gaps.
As always, it should be interesting.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Tracking the Hindenburg Omen: How Much Danger Is There?
"Friday the 13th" got a little scarier than normal as warnings were heard from many corners of the financial blogosphere that the Hindenburg Omen triggered.
What is it? It is a fairly obscure technical analysis pattern, which supposedly gives an early warning of unstable market conditions (and even potentially stock market crashes).
While the calculation is based on five factors, the primary conditions indicate that there is a big disagreement about market conditions.
For example, two of the conditions are that a substantial number of stocks have to be at yearly highs, while a substantial number of stocks have to be at new annual lows. Ultimately, it is hard for those two conditions to be met in a short period of time, unless there's uncertainty in the market. Moreover, after a rally, uncertainty is often a precursor to a decline.
In addition, technically (in order for the pattern to be complete), a second sighting of the five elements must occur within 36 days. Logically, lingering uncertainty is a momentum killer.
While this pattern has correctly predicted every big stock market swoon of the past two decades, including the October 2008 decline (that set the global economic recession into motion), not every Hindenburg Omen has been followed by a crash. Resorting to a geometry analogy: All rectangles are squares, but not all squares are rectangles.
Personally, I don't make trade decisions based solely on indicators like this. Nonetheless, it has a pretty good track record, seems to be based on reasonable theories, and might be useful as just another data point urging caution.
Tough Week for World Markets.
Taking a macro view, many markets around the world went down last week. Notably, the NASDAQ was down 5%, the Nikkei was down 4%, and many other indices were down 3%.
Here in America, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee startled financial markets by raising its terror alert level over the economy and declaring it would keep buying bonds to maintain its loose-money stance and fight deflation. Despite the promise of help, the markets continued lower.
Let's Look at a Chart of the S&P.
What does a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index show? Price has retreated from the resistance area (marked by the pink highlight). In addition, price has gapped below the up-trend line (marked by the green line). Combine that with a negative divergence in MACD momentum, and the picture is technically weaker than before.
Bulls are looking for an oversold rally. Bears are looking at the unfilled gaps as breakaway gaps.
As always, it should be interesting.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
The government's latest snapshot of the job market was bleak, with 14.6 million Americans still searching for work. The disappointment is not limited to July; the report also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months. It is becoming clear that the existing policy mix is not appropriate for the task at hand.
Even though we've heard bad news, the market has continued to hold up well. And that is a decidedly bullish sign. There are also a number of positive signs of market strength (like strong breadth, increased corporate spending, and lots of capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed).
Market Commentary: Let's Look Under the Covers.
The charts show a few challenges ahead, however. First, the S&P 500 Index is sitting at a resistance zone in a rising wedge pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, that pattern is often bearish (or the place traders look for a reversal).
Bulls are looking for a sustained move above the 1140 level to make them comfortable.
Second, the Dollar looks like it might be at a support level. Will it reverse here? These two markets often move counter to each other. So, having the Dollar at "support" while the S&P 500 Index is at "resistance" might increase the odds of a market turn here.
Just something to keep your eye on.
Finally, this is from late May; but it is making the rounds again … and I thought it was worth sharing.
Steve Wynn Is Not a Shy Man With Few Opinions.
In this video, Steve Wynn (a casino resort/real-estate developer who has been credited with spearheading the dramatic resurgence and expansion of the Las Vegas Strip) calls out the White House and talks about the Fall of America. Interesting perspective from a billionaire.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
The government's latest snapshot of the job market was bleak, with 14.6 million Americans still searching for work. The disappointment is not limited to July; the report also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months. It is becoming clear that the existing policy mix is not appropriate for the task at hand.
Even though we've heard bad news, the market has continued to hold up well. And that is a decidedly bullish sign. There are also a number of positive signs of market strength (like strong breadth, increased corporate spending, and lots of capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed).
Market Commentary: Let's Look Under the Covers.
The charts show a few challenges ahead, however. First, the S&P 500 Index is sitting at a resistance zone in a rising wedge pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, that pattern is often bearish (or the place traders look for a reversal).
Bulls are looking for a sustained move above the 1140 level to make them comfortable.
Second, the Dollar looks like it might be at a support level. Will it reverse here? These two markets often move counter to each other. So, having the Dollar at "support" while the S&P 500 Index is at "resistance" might increase the odds of a market turn here.
Just something to keep your eye on.
Finally, this is from late May; but it is making the rounds again … and I thought it was worth sharing.
Steve Wynn Is Not a Shy Man With Few Opinions.
In this video, Steve Wynn (a casino resort/real-estate developer who has been credited with spearheading the dramatic resurgence and expansion of the Las Vegas Strip) calls out the White House and talks about the Fall of America. Interesting perspective from a billionaire.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
It is 106° here in Texas. That is sit-in-the-shade (or better yet, air-condtitioning) and read a book weather.
One of the recent news stories reminded me of a good book, worth recommending.
Spies Among Us.
The allegations were shocking: four couples living in the U.S. under assumed false identities while secretly working as covert Russian spies on long-term, "deep-cover" assignments to obtain information on nuclear weapons.
Behind the scenes, they were known as "illegals" — short for illegal Russian agents — and were believed to have fake back stories known as "legends."
U.S. authorities say they sometimes worked in pairs and pretended to be married so they could blend into American society as the couple next door. Aside from fake identities, authorities say, they used Cold War spycraft — invisible ink, coded radio transmissions, encrypted data — to avoid detection.
It sounds like a story right out of a Nelson DeMille novel.
Wait, it is the plot-line of one of his best books, The Charm School, written in 1988.
The plot is simple and compelling. Two U.S. diplomats in the Soviet Union discover that many of the U.S. pilots shot down over Vietnam (and classified as Missing-In-Action) ended-up at the KGB-run "Mrs. Ivanova's Charm School". There, the Soviets forced the pilots to teach aspiring Russian spies how to act, speak, and pass as Americans. Once discovered, the embassy and US government have to decide how to react. With Glasnost on the table and the two countries trying to work together, this revelation can destroy everything.
If you are looking for a fun book to read, this is a great story. I recommend it.
Other Links About this Topic:
It is 106° here in Texas. That is sit-in-the-shade (or better yet, air-condtitioning) and read a book weather.
One of the recent news stories reminded me of a good book, worth recommending.
Spies Among Us.
The allegations were shocking: four couples living in the U.S. under assumed false identities while secretly working as covert Russian spies on long-term, "deep-cover" assignments to obtain information on nuclear weapons.
Behind the scenes, they were known as "illegals" — short for illegal Russian agents — and were believed to have fake back stories known as "legends."
U.S. authorities say they sometimes worked in pairs and pretended to be married so they could blend into American society as the couple next door. Aside from fake identities, authorities say, they used Cold War spycraft — invisible ink, coded radio transmissions, encrypted data — to avoid detection.
It sounds like a story right out of a Nelson DeMille novel.
Wait, it is the plot-line of one of his best books, The Charm School, written in 1988.
The plot is simple and compelling. Two U.S. diplomats in the Soviet Union discover that many of the U.S. pilots shot down over Vietnam (and classified as Missing-In-Action) ended-up at the KGB-run "Mrs. Ivanova's Charm School". There, the Soviets forced the pilots to teach aspiring Russian spies how to act, speak, and pass as Americans. Once discovered, the embassy and US government have to decide how to react. With Glasnost on the table and the two countries trying to work together, this revelation can destroy everything.
If you are looking for a fun book to read, this is a great story. I recommend it.
Other Links About this Topic:
Insider Buying Has Dried Up Since May.
Insider buying and selling behavior offers a unique insight on the prospects of a company, industry, economic sector, or even the stock market in general. By definition, Insiders have a deep knowledge and understanding of the company, exclusive information on the company's performance and prospects … and if they are risking their own money on the stock, you might expect that they have good reasons, especially when several insiders buy or sell at the same time.
Well, since May, Insiders have certainly changed their buying habits. Here is a chart from Insidercow showing how bearish insiders are right now.
Another sign I've been watching has been the performance of China.
China's Shanghai Index Has Some Room to Move.
China's Shanghai Index has been in a downtrend for a while. It has under-performed most of the major world markets recently. However, in early July it bounced nicely off the downtrend channel. At this point, it is sitting right at the resistance zone. A sustained move above the 2700 level will likely give the index plenty of room to rally. On the other hand, a failure at this level could send a signal to other world markets.
This next chart shows a weekly view of gold. This is a market that I don't pay close attention to, normally. Nonetheless, its chart caught my eye this weekend.
Decision Time for Gold.
The price of Gold is sitting at the bottom of the up-channel. So, this where you'd expect to see buying come in from those expecting the up-trend to continue in Gold. The chart speaks for itself.
We'll see what happens. Hope you have a good week.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week:
Insider Buying Has Dried Up Since May.
Insider buying and selling behavior offers a unique insight on the prospects of a company, industry, economic sector, or even the stock market in general. By definition, Insiders have a deep knowledge and understanding of the company, exclusive information on the company's performance and prospects … and if they are risking their own money on the stock, you might expect that they have good reasons, especially when several insiders buy or sell at the same time.
Well, since May, Insiders have certainly changed their buying habits. Here is a chart from Insidercow showing how bearish insiders are right now.
Another sign I've been watching has been the performance of China.
China's Shanghai Index Has Some Room to Move.
China's Shanghai Index has been in a downtrend for a while. It has under-performed most of the major world markets recently. However, in early July it bounced nicely off the downtrend channel. At this point, it is sitting right at the resistance zone. A sustained move above the 2700 level will likely give the index plenty of room to rally. On the other hand, a failure at this level could send a signal to other world markets.
This next chart shows a weekly view of gold. This is a market that I don't pay close attention to, normally. Nonetheless, its chart caught my eye this weekend.
Decision Time for Gold.
The price of Gold is sitting at the bottom of the up-channel. So, this where you'd expect to see buying come in from those expecting the up-trend to continue in Gold. The chart speaks for itself.
We'll see what happens. Hope you have a good week.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week:
It was a strong week for the markets. Normally, to get a sense of what's happening, I focus on the U.S. equity markets. This week, however, I thought it made sense to start with a look at emerging markets around the world. These markets are often referred to as BRICs.
Emerging Markets Lead Stock Rally.
At this point, foreign stocks are leading the U.S. stock market higher. Here is a chart showing that Emerging Market iShares recently broke above its June high. Moreover, after breaking above the down-trend since April, it successfully re-tested that line (from above) and bounced higher. From a technical analysis perspective, those are bullish signs.
Here in America, it is earnings season, and companies have been reporting better news than most expected. The economic news hasn't been stellar; but the markets have held up well. This chart shows the S&P 500 Index at the top of hotly contested resistance level.
Many would take a sustained move above the 1120 level as a strong bullish sign.
With that said, business expansion is dragging and slowing the economic recovery, and it
seems everyone is searching for reasons.
Debt Overhang.
In his new paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researcher Filippo Occhino says a contributing factor may be something called debt overhang. Simply put, when companies have too much debt it discourages them and their investors from taking on projects because the debt consumes any profits the investors might make, even in situations when the investment raises equity in the company.
Watch the Debt Overhang Video from the Cleveland Fed.
A different slant on the debt problem is illustrated below.
Business Posts Moving the
Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and
Fun Links
that I Found Interesting This Week
