In 2017, I shot my first video with Alan Olsen. Alan is a wealth manager to the ultra-affluent. His American Dreams show is immensely popular with the High-Net-Worth demographic in Silicon Valley.
Alan's show is about finding your path in life, and what it takes to make businesses thrive through adversity and challenging times.
In my first video with him, we talked about defining a meaningful life. We started by talking about my career path from a young lawyer to spending over 25 years running tech companies … and the lessons learned along the way.
The main issue addressed during the video is how you can best get what you want as the world changes and forces like AI terraform the world and your role in it.
It's worth watching.
Ultimately, I believe AI is simply another vehicle freeing human nature. As AI does what humans used to … you have an opportunity to choose what to do with the freedom you get. Will you relax or lift your gaze to something better? The choice is yours.
Similarly, some will want to direct new AI capabilities towards things they want to monetize better. Others will want to weaponize AI. Still others will use it to spread peace and love.
You've seen it with nuclear power (and a host of other technological capabilities) … tools aren't good or bad in and of themselves – it is what people use those capabilities for that determines their impact.
I had someone ask me recently if I was scared of AI surpassing humans. My answer was that (essentially) it already has. Meaning, it already seems inevitable. The question is whether you will benefit from it or fight it? Regardless, it’s going to happen.
Comparatively, humans are slow, weak, and prone to bias. So, yes, AI is better than us at many things.
Until now, humans have been at the top of the food chain because of our intelligence … but I’d also argue it’s because of our intelligence in knowing that we’re not always the most intelligent or capable. We use the tools at our disposal. And there are a lot of great tools being created all around us.
So, how do you ride the wave of the future instead of being capsized by it?
As the world becomes more technical, and we have more tools, it can become overwhelming. Processing the opportunities in front of us today is tough, let alone the possibilities (or inevitabilities) of tomorrow.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing.
Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it, or not).
As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said a different way, you have to choose between chaos or nothing.
It is hard to keep up – and harder to stay ahead.
Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.
But, luckily for you and I … you don’t actually have to do the tech itself. My company may not really do "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We use exponential technologies like high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning.
But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too. Fortunately, it helped me take a step back and see the bigger picture.
The Bigger Picture
While many things are changing around us, the secret is that some things never change.
My father said, not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.
You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built. Because while technology changes, human nature doesn’t. That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting "how'. Why? Because technology doesn't often look for a problem; rather, it is the response to one.
A medium is just a tool. And the tool is just a way to accomplish something more efficiently.
Kodak’s goal should have been to preserve memories – not to sell film. Blockbusters' goal should have been to get movies in homes – not to get people in their stores.
What’s the real goal of your life or your business, and what tools are going to help you do that most efficiently over the next 3-5 years? What do you need to create, and what do you need to destroy? History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
Much like Google's change to Alphabet, Facebook will become a subsidiary of the parent company, Meta. The change comes with a change in focus to the metaverse. Zuckerberg described it as "a set of virtual spaces where you can create and explore with other people who aren't in the same physical space as you." It seems like a focus on VR/AR, but also it seems like a distraction from all the recent bad publicity.
What do you think of the change?
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
It is hard to “predict” the future. Technically, that’s not true … It is easy to predict the future. What’s difficult is to predict the future accurately and consistently.
As we become better and more nuanced at predictive modeling, we look for ways to use technology to “know” things faster. Building dynamic and adaptive models based on discovery and learning lets you compound edges and improve your signal-to-noise ratio.
Another way to improve your predictions is to choose the “right things” to predict. For example, in general, I believe human nature is one of the easier things to predict because even as the world changes, humans remain remarkably consistent. Consequently, instead of predicting technology advances directly, it makes sense to predict the capabilities humans will desire and the likely constraints to getting them.
Here is a video that noted science fiction writer, Arthur C. Clarke, made in 1974. In it, he made some guesses about the future of technology. Pretty impressive!
The entrepreneurial journey is about making the impossible “possible”, the possible “likely”, the likely “inevitable”, and then making the inevitable happen!
Many life-changing (or world-changing) technologies already exist. Which do you believe will have the biggest impacts? Here is a quick and dirty list: Artificial Intelligence, the Blockchain, Quantum Computing, Augmented Reality, Neuro-interfaces, the ability to read and write our genes, and printing organic material (like food or replacement organs).
There is a promise and a peril to each. Nonetheless, we are living in a golden age for exponential technologies that will change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.
Remote work has been increasingly popular because of the pandemic … but even as more people have vaccines, and some are even getting booster shots, the love for remote work stays.
I'll be honest … when I first saw this, I was like, "Retail's that low? That can't be right". But then I realized… I never really go to stores. What would I know?
Seeing the rise of remote work in Media & Tech is unsurprising. But, I will be curious to see what percentage of these businesses stay remote as we move further away from the "worst" of Covid-19.
As I mentioned in this video, hybrid solutions are the answer. There's too much benefit to the culture of companies that spend real time together in person. While I believe productivity can remain high at home or in the office, the sense of camaraderie is hard to sustain if you rarely see each other in real life.
That being said, employees are reporting being happier and more productive at home. Consequently, I wouldn't bet on the move back to the office happening quickly. Meanwhile, companies also are suffering through the "great resignation." Clearly, the game has changed – and so must their strategies and tactics.
The culture of work is in a massive period of transformation. Regardless of where your specific company or industry ends up, all businesses will have to increase the amount of employee care they provide. Just as the heart of AI is still human, so is the heart of our businesses.
You shouldn't be forced to take care of your employees … you should want to. This past year+ has been challenging for everyone, and it's important to keep that in mind as you make decisions.
People have enjoyed the freedom of working from home, and even as the world has gotten safer, it’s unlikely that it will ever get back to the old normal.
However, I’m not willing to give up on the office just yet.
There are benefits to being in the office –and benefits to working from home. Going forward, I suspect that many companies will adopt a hybrid home and office solution.
When my company was running out of my home, we had 20+ people there. But, because it was in the house and seemingly everything was so integrated with our daily lives, our culture reeked of “family.” We developed a closeness that’s hard to match otherwise.
As a company grows, it can be hard to maintain that sense of “family togetherness,” but it’s worth trying.
Culture is the engine behind great companies. As a result, if you let your culture die off, so will your future.
Technology marches on – and there are now more and better tools to foster the quality of remote work and remote teams. As a result, during COVID-19, I was impressed by how our team stepped up. Our tech teams started using discord servers to stay in touch better. We used Microsoft Teams for internal meetings and chats. We used Zoom for external meetings. We intentionally scheduled ‘fun’ activities to lighten the mood. And, of course, we made sure to check in on people more often.
Still, while running a high-performing company can be done remotely, I think it’s easier and better in person. As I mentioned in the video, our team is back in the office twice a week. We have better snacks, we cater in lunch, and we try to schedule important meetings on those days to maximize our team’s time in the office.
I’d love to know what you’re doing to focus on culture this year (and how you’re managing in-office vs. work-from-home with your team).
In that article, I also briefly identified the global chip shortage as a supply chain issue impacting millions of businesses, which could also become a significant barrier to businesses adopting A.I. at scale.
Let's talk a little bit more about the scale of the shortage.
Chips (or semiconductors) are used in substantially all the world's electronic devices – and the more complex machines can require not only more chips … but also more complex chips. For example, a modern car can have anywhere from 500-3000 chips in them.
When the pandemic hit, consumer demand shifts meant that semiconductor manufacturing had to slow down – and a foreseeable consequence of those actions presents us with the inconvenient truth that scaling back production can take up to a year-and-a-half. With demand increasing, the supply vs. demand ratio is getting more out of whack.
Luckily for you, semiconductor manufacturers prioritize the more lucrative goods (like smartphones and other consumer electronics), but that means that it will be harder for small businesses to get them – and it's also severely impacting the automotive industry.
You'll notice that the most affected brands have more production in North America. The reason for that discrepancy is that U.S. manufacturers depend heavily on chips from Asia. The Senate has recently approved $52 billion in subsidies for N.A. chip manufacturing, which hopefully will lessen that dependence over time.
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