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  • Digesting a Bigger Future

    We live in a world where technology changes quickly and often, while human nature remains relatively unchanged.

    For most of us, human nature is the key variable.

    I suspect Henry Ford focused on that when he said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right."

    Henry Ford Quote - Whether You Think You Can

    Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is often difficult for humans. Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to comprehend exponential growth, let alone its implications. For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster, and RadioShack. 

     

    The world changes quickly.

    Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it or not). 

    As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up … or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said another way, you have to choose between chaos and nothing. 

    It's hard to keep up – and even harder to stay ahead.

    Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.

    Def5094d723b4c099755173bc6b580ad

    My company may not be doing "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We utilize exponential technologies, such as high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning, to amplify intelligence and make data-driven, evidence-based decisions in real-time, all the time. 

    But, as we get "techier," I get less so … and my role gets less technical, over time, too.

    Due to my age, experience, and tendency to be a pioneer, I've been battling technology for decades. 

    Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend, and I still love it. But my relationship with it is different now.

    I recognize that there are things that change and things that stay the same. And for me, the things that "stay the same" tend to be more important.

    Paradoxically, the part of me that stays the same can still change and grow – that is how you become more (and a more evolved version) of that thing.

     

    The Bigger Picture

    My father said that not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.

    You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built.   That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting 'how'.

    Why is that often the case? Because technology that solves a problem is more profitable and popular than technology searching for a problem to solve.

    Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some remarkably accurate predictions about the future of technology. 

     

    via Australian Broadcasting Corporation

    Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities … but what they enable is virtually limitless.

    Where do you see this going?

    Onwards.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 20th, 2025

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • How Has The Job Market Changed Since 1988?

    1998 was a long time ago. My oldest son was just a twinkle in my eye. Michael Jackson was touring the world for his ‘Bad’ album, and ‘Rain Man’ topped the movie charts. It’s also the year that Microsoft Office was released. 

    A lot has changed since then. For obvious reasons, the U.S. labor market has changed radically since then … but how different is it really?

     

    Most-Common-Job_WEBvia visualcapitalist 

    The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we can assume it’s relatively accurate. 

    In 1988, consumer-facing roles, such as salespeople and cashiers, were the most common jobs in 46 states. Comparing that to 2024 highlights how much less reliance we have on brick-and-mortar stores. 

    While not entirely different, now fast food workers are the most common job in 15 states. This is unsurprising in light of the shift toward lower-wage & flexible-hour service jobs. Meanwhile, retail salespersons are still the top job in 11 states. 

    Operations managers, home health aides, and freight movers have made significant gains in the U.S. labor market. 

    I was surprised to see how many home health aides there were, but considering the aging U.S. population, it makes sense. 

    The U.S. is still clearly a consumer economy; however, the focus has switched towards logistics and supply chain, as people shop increasingly online. 

    I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of work. People talk about change, but so far, things have felt relatively stable. That’s about to shift. AI is advancing faster than most realize—we’re still early on the curve, but the steep climb is beginning.

    We’re entering a phase where AI is no longer just a tool—it’s becoming a collaborator in both our personal and professional lives. This shift will reshape how we work, create, and make decisions. For business leaders, that means looking past the hype and focusing on real value, workforce readiness, and building trust. For employees, it means adapting to a new kind of teamwork—one that includes AI as a core partner in creativity and productivity.

    How will those changes show up in a chart like this?
     
    We live in interesting times!

  • Do You Think You’re Smart?

    I know a lot of smart people.

    I also know a lot of people who think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones … or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

    It's common.  So common, in fact, that there's a name for it.  The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

    Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their own skills. It's getting increasingly more common.

    Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

    Dunning-w-captionvia NC Soy

    It can be funny or frustrating to see (or be) the "victims" of this effect in our daily lives.

    Humans seem prone to overestimating their knowledge and abilities. It's probably more a result of ignorance than stupidity. 

    Even if you are familiar with the cognitive bias caused by the Dunning-Kruger Effect, you are not immune to it — because you don't know what you don't know.

    Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

    Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much… - David Dunning

    It should be a reminder to reflect inward, not cast aspersions outward. 

    To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger effect presents a simplification of its findings. First off, the above image isn't actually a part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect (though it is ironically so prevalent that people often report that it is). Furthermore, the connection between a lack of ability and the inability to engage in meta-cognitive tasks is intuitive, but it is not the only potential takeaway from the paper. It's worth a read if you have the time. 

    Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

    We judge ourselves situationally, and assume "the best" of ourselves.  Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

    We can do better … it starts with awareness.

    Progress starts by telling the truth.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 13th, 2025

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

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  • When Worlds Collide: Timeless Wisdom & Evolutionary Technology in Trading with Matthew Piepenburg

    Back in 2020, I had a Zoom meeting with Matthew Piepenburg of Signals Matter. Of course, being the height of the Pandemic, it was over Zoom. Even though it was a private discussion, there was so much value in our discussion that we decided to share parts of it here. 

    While Matt's understanding of markets is based on Macro/Value investing, we use advanced AI and quantitative methods for our approach. 

    As you might expect, there are a lot of differences in how we view the world, decision-making, and the current market environment. Nonetheless, we share a lot of common beliefs as well.   

    Our talk explores several interesting areas and concepts. I encourage you to watch it below. 

     

    Via YouTube.

    To summarize a couple of the key points, markets are not the economy, and normal market dynamics have been out the window for a long time. In addition, part of why you're seeing increased volatility and noise is that there are so many interventions and artificial inputs to our market system.

    While Matt and I may approach the world with very different lenses, we both believe in "timeless wisdom". 

    Ask yourself, What was true yesterday, today, and will stay true tomorrow? 

    That is part of the reason we focus on emerging technologies and constant innovation … they remain relevant. 

    Something we can both agree on is that if you don't know what your edge is … you don't have one. 

     

    If You Don't Know What Your Edge Is You Don't Have One _GapingVoid

    Hope you enjoyed the video.

    Let me know what other topics you'd like to hear more about. 

    Onwards!

  • The Benner Cycle: How Not To Predict Markets

    When I first became interested in trading, I would often consult many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom.  I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac. 

    While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions.  Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye. 

    Still, it seems better than using astrology to trade. 

    Want something easy to predict?  Traders love patterns … from the simple head-and-shoulders to Fibonacci sequences and the Elliot Wave Theory.

    Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875.  That year, he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle.  Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years.  Let's check it out. 

     

     

    Here's what it does get right … markets go up, and then they go down … and that cycle continues.  Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high … It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.

    Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle. 

    However, it was close to the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash, so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.

    The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models.  However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle.  The trick is figuring out what to focus on—and what to ignore. 

    Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none … they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences. 

    This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, it doesn't make it a good recommendation.  Those models do some things well.  Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn't the area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals … yet. 

    We're seeing bots improve at running businesses and writing code, but off-the-shelf tools like ChatGPT are still known for generating hallucinations and overconfidence. 

    Be careful out there.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – July 6th, 2025

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     

  • Market Growth in the First Half of 2025.

    According to S&P Global, the U.S. market cap rose by 4.7% in the past 6th months. This represents a modest gain compared to the average market capitalization growth of 12.2% during the same period.

    Leaders in growth were South Korea, Spain, Germany, Italy, and Brazil.

     

    Voronoi21 via VisualCapitalist

    We have previously discussed this, but in addition to investments in technology and artificial intelligence, global capital is also being directed toward emerging markets, where many businesses are being established.

    At first glance, some may see U.S. underperformance, but it can also be read as a sign of relative maturity and stability. Another potential perspective is that U.S. companies have already experienced explosive growth in recent years, particularly in sectors such as tech and AI, suggesting the market may currently be in a phase of consolidation.

    While it's always great to see explosive growth, people undervalue resilience and steady growth, especially in light of the volatile first quarter of the year. 

    Time will tell! 

     

  • How Long You Have Left

    We only have a limited time on this earth … and a lot of it is spent on frivolous activities. 

    How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones … or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

    The answer is a lot.

    Although this chart hasn't been updated recently, it still provides a helpful glimpse of the bigger picture. 

     

    How-much-time-we-have-infographic (1)via Anna Vital

    Nine years in front of entertainment devices – another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.

    If you have goals you want to accomplish, places you want to go, and lifestyle aspirations to experience, this puts the idea of finding and living your passion into perspective. 

    Do you have the time to waste it?

    VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

     

    OC_Life-Expectancy-by-Age_1600px_Oct31

    via visualcapitalist
     

    According to this calculator, since I'm over 60, I only have about 20 years left.   I expect more!

    There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 … but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

    While these numbers appear high, there are two key considerations. First, COVID-19 heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates increased. 

    Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which may differ from your own (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

    Ultimately, I believe Purpose is one of the most significant catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire … not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

    If you're not growing, you're dying!