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  • Market Commentary from April 25th

    Bull_and_bear_3dmarketabstract
    We’ve talked about the "line in the sand" (where the bulls and bears are battling at the 1400 level in the S&P 500 index). Well, at the end of this week, we’re still at the same place.

    The emotional momentum of last week has faded some, however the market held up nicely in the face of additional bad news this week. From my perspective, that’s a positive sign.

    I expect a bunch of smaller traders to short the 1400 level into Tuesday’s Fed meeting.  It seems like a safe trade.  So, while a "correction" downward wouldn’t surprise me here; I am not bearish.  In fact, I think a move above that level would trigger a rash of buying (both organic and short-covering) … and is thus more likely.

  • What is a Dollar Worth?

    Crying_dollar_sagging_economy_2
    The Fed meets this week to discuss the manic-depressive nature of our economy. If you are a glass-half-full type of person you could worry about both Recession and Inflation.

    From a trader’s perspective, though, the markets have been trading much better.

    On a related note, I heard lots of talk among traders this week about the Dollar potentially putting in a bottom. We’ll see.

    While I was researching this, I found a site that makes it easy to calculate the affect of inflation. Click the following link to see
    What Is A Dollar Worth?

    There is a fill-in-the-blank calculator that lets you figure-out things like: if you bought a house for $ 54,000 in 1973, then it would cost $262,000 in 2008 dollars. Check it out.

  • What is a Dollar Worth?

    Crying_dollar_sagging_economy_2
    The Fed meets this week to discuss the manic-depressive nature of our economy. If you are a glass-half-full type of person you could worry about both Recession and Inflation.

    From a trader’s perspective, though, the markets have been trading much better.

    On a related note, I heard lots of talk among traders this week about the Dollar potentially putting in a bottom. We’ll see.

    While I was researching this, I found a site that makes it easy to calculate the affect of inflation. Click the following link to see
    What Is A Dollar Worth?

    There is a fill-in-the-blank calculator that lets you figure-out things like: if you bought a house for $ 54,000 in 1973, then it would cost $262,000 in 2008 dollars. Check it out.

  • A Brief Look at Ideas Worth Spreading

    I enjoy the TED website, whose tag-line is "ideas worth spreading." They host one of the "cool" conferences for thinkers and doers. Recently, they opened their content vault and offer a wide range of free videos on technology, business, science, culture, and global issues.

    This video is of a presentation by Jill Bolte Taylor. She shares a powerful story about how our brains define us and connect us to the world and to one another.

    Jill is a neuro-scientist who had an opportunity few brain scientists would wish for: One morning, she realized she was having a massive stroke. As it happened — as she felt her brain functions slip away one by one, speech, movement, understanding — she studied and remembered every moment.

    I found it interesting and inspiring, and hope you do too.

  • Market Commentary from April 18th

    Froghorse_252p_2
    This week I’m going to use an optical illusion to help make a point about the publics’ perception of what is happening in the markets.

    Instead of Bulls and Bears, perhaps the market is like a frog or a horse. 

    It simply depends on your perspective. 

    As you look at the picture on the right, you’ll see a frog sitting on the edge of a pond. 

    However, if you turn the picture (or your head), you’ll see a horse that is poking his head out of the stable.

    Things are not always as they seem on first glance.

    Markets At The Crossroads:  Decision Time:

    As it stands, the Markets have been acting
    quite well.  They continue to rally, even when there is bad news in the
    marketplace.  From a technical point of view, though, we are at a
    crossroads. 

    I prepared the following chart to show the arguments for both the bull and the bear cases.  It is a daily chart of the S&P 500.  The market’s downtrend line, since October, is marked in blue.  The red horizontal line shows that this is the fourth time we’ve hit this area since late January.

    080418_sp_crossroads_630p_2

    The question is whether we go up or down from here.

    Like a serial cliff-hanger, we’ll have to tune-in next week to see if
    anything gets resolved.

  • Market Commentary from April 18th

    Froghorse_252p_2
    This week I’m going to use an optical illusion to help make a point about the publics’ perception of what is happening in the markets.

    Instead of Bulls and Bears, perhaps the market is like a frog or a horse. 

    It simply depends on your perspective. 

    As you look at the picture on the right, you’ll see a frog sitting on the edge of a pond. 

    However, if you turn the picture (or your head), you’ll see a horse that is poking his head out of the stable.

    Things are not always as they seem on first glance.

    Markets At The Crossroads:  Decision Time:

    As it stands, the Markets have been acting
    quite well.  They continue to rally, even when there is bad news in the
    marketplace.  From a technical point of view, though, we are at a
    crossroads. 

    I prepared the following chart to show the arguments for both the bull and the bear cases.  It is a daily chart of the S&P 500.  The market’s downtrend line, since October, is marked in blue.  The red horizontal line shows that this is the fourth time we’ve hit this area since late January.

    080418_sp_crossroads_630p_2

    The question is whether we go up or down from here.

    Like a serial cliff-hanger, we’ll have to tune-in next week to see if
    anything gets resolved.

  • Is You Is … Or Is You Ain’t, My Baby?

    During the weekend, I visited an art fair in downtown Fort Worth.  While walking through the exhibits, I came upon the performance stage and stopped to listen to a jazz and swing band play.  One of the songs stuck in my head.  It was originally done by Louis Jordan, and it is called  "Is You Is … Or Is You Ain’t?"

    While thinking about how the Markets are at a crossroads, I hear the lyrics ask:

    Is you is … or is you ain’t, my baby?
    The way you’re acting lately makes me doubt …

    When I got home, I kept singing the song.  A quick search found various versions, including this one.  From the Tom & Jerry cartoon.  Very nicely done.

    That brought back memories of old TV Shows: Mister Ed, Courtship of Eddie’s Father, Speed Racer, etc.  Well, I found a site that has over 5,000 TV tunes.  Click here to visit Television Tunes and bring back some memories.

  • Is You Is … Or Is You Ain’t, My Baby?

    During the weekend, I visited an art fair in downtown Fort Worth.  While walking through the exhibits, I came upon the performance stage and stopped to listen to a jazz and swing band play.  One of the songs stuck in my head.  It was originally done by Louis Jordan, and it is called  "Is You Is … Or Is You Ain’t?"

    While thinking about how the Markets are at a crossroads, I hear the lyrics ask:

    Is you is … or is you ain’t, my baby?
    The way you’re acting lately makes me doubt …

    When I got home, I kept singing the song.  A quick search found various versions, including this one.  From the Tom & Jerry cartoon.  Very nicely done.

    That brought back memories of old TV Shows: Mister Ed, Courtship of Eddie’s Father, Speed Racer, etc.  Well, I found a site that has over 5,000 TV tunes.  Click here to visit Television Tunes and bring back some memories.

  • Weekly Market Commentary from 4/11/08

    This was a quiet week in the market. Until Friday, each day was a narrow range day with very little volume. For the first time in a while there seemed to be very little external influence on the market. Governments weren’t overtly buying or selling to push an agenda. Giant funds weren’t trying desperately to hedge positions or cover margin calls. Instead, it was just the normal fear and greed of market participants. It was the dance of the undecided.

    080411_spx_daily
    There were attempts to move the market down, only to have the market close relatively unchanged. There also were moves to push the markets higher, only to come back down and close, again, relatively unchanged. To me, though, that was good news. All-in-all I thought it was a constructive week of base-building that will serve the market well in the weeks ahead.

    Slip_on_bananna_peel_istock_0000014
    On Thursday, I told one our portfolio managers that it would be very easy to see some selling so close to important overhead and down-trend resistance. Also I expected a re-test of the 50-day moving average.  From a chartist’s standpoint, these are common-sense "Technical Analysis 101" comments and expectations.

    Friday was interesting. It is earnings season and GE announced results that fell far short of expectations.  The markets sold off pretty hard.  And now investors are twitchy again.  Everywhere I turned pundits blamed the sell-off on GE and were predicting the next bear leg down.

    This is why they say that "markets climb a wall of worry." Experienced traders know that it is not the news that matters, it is the reaction to the news.  In my opinion, GE simply stirred-up emotions that were already there.  A little selling and over-reaction were expected, even if GE’s announcement wasn’t.

  • Weekly Market Commentary from 4/11/08

    This was a quiet week in the market. Until Friday, each day was a narrow range day with very little volume. For the first time in a while there seemed to be very little external influence on the market. Governments weren’t overtly buying or selling to push an agenda. Giant funds weren’t trying desperately to hedge positions or cover margin calls. Instead, it was just the normal fear and greed of market participants. It was the dance of the undecided.

    080411_spx_daily
    There were attempts to move the market down, only to have the market close relatively unchanged. There also were moves to push the markets higher, only to come back down and close, again, relatively unchanged. To me, though, that was good news. All-in-all I thought it was a constructive week of base-building that will serve the market well in the weeks ahead.

    Slip_on_bananna_peel_istock_0000014
    On Thursday, I told one our portfolio managers that it would be very easy to see some selling so close to important overhead and down-trend resistance. Also I expected a re-test of the 50-day moving average.  From a chartist’s standpoint, these are common-sense "Technical Analysis 101" comments and expectations.

    Friday was interesting. It is earnings season and GE announced results that fell far short of expectations.  The markets sold off pretty hard.  And now investors are twitchy again.  Everywhere I turned pundits blamed the sell-off on GE and were predicting the next bear leg down.

    This is why they say that "markets climb a wall of worry." Experienced traders know that it is not the news that matters, it is the reaction to the news.  In my opinion, GE simply stirred-up emotions that were already there.  A little selling and over-reaction were expected, even if GE’s announcement wasn’t.