admin

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 16th, 2025

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Fostering Resilience & Grit

    Last night, at a family dinner, the concept of choosing “the easy way or the hard way” was discussed. The focus was on how, when you keep choosing the easy path, you end up with a harder life, and when you exercise discipline and challenge yourself, life eventually becomes easier.

    Life can be hard today or hard tomorrow… You get to decide. This reminded me of a bigger discussion we’ve had about resilience and grit …

    I believe in setting high standards and committing to achieving them.  A big part of success is knowing that you can do anything you commit to … and then all you have to do is honor your commitment and continue to make progress.  As long as you don’t stop … the rest takes care of itself.

    Said another way, resilience is the ability to recover from or adjust to misfortune or change, whereas grit is the passion and perseverance for long-term goals.  Sure, you will encounter errors, injuries, setbacks, competition, bad luck, and other practical realities of life.  But, together, resilience and grit make almost anything possible.

    The bottom line is that if you want success of any kind, you have to be comfortable being uncomfortable.

    When I was in high school, I was a state champion shot-putter.  The first time I got that title was during my junior year.  After winning, I watched my dad run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed.  I replied: “But Dad, I won!” He nodded and said he knew – but reminded me that I did not throw a personal best that day.  He recognized that winning was important too … Then he reminded me that the other throwers were not the real competition.  

    Going into spring of my senior year, I had a multi-season undefeated streak.  However, I tore a tendon in my throwing hand at the end of the indoor track season at Nationals.  Fast forward to the first meet of the outdoor season … and I was on the sidelines with a cast on my hand.  A local reporter approached me and asked how it felt to lose my unbeaten streak.  I was confused.  I wasn’t losing … I just wasn’t competing.

    But, the concept gnawed at me. 

    Ultimately, I cut the cast off my hand and tried unsuccessfully to wrap it tight enough that it didn’t hurt.  When that didn’t work, I slammed my hand against the floor until it was numb … I threw once and managed to win.  It got easier from there, and I ended the year undefeated.

    I think part of it is in my DNA.  My father and grandfather were both athletes.  My dad played football at Temple University (on the same team as Bill Cosby).  He thought he would continue playing with the Philadelphia Eagles, but his career was cut short by a car accident before tryouts.  And my grandfather was a professional wrestler called the Green Hornet, 

    Here is a picture of us together.

    83079882-e8c3-4f1b-899c-ad8551cf90fc 2Three Generations of Getsons

    My youngest son, Zach (who co-writes the weekly commentary with me), was just selected to represent the USA in rugby in the Maccabiah Games this July. It was his third – and probably final time – selected. He still hasn't hung up his cleats after 3 ACL surgeries, a recently broken face, a lacerated spleen, and countless other injuries. Time flies while you are growing old and moving slower. 

    D0892719-3F64-4B82-9780-566906539517

    I continue to watch him get better at the game, despite adversity and what I like to call a “burst of slowness”. He gets that from me … I was also deceptively slow throughout my athletic career.

    He’s currently raising money for his trip.  If you’d like to support his journey to represent the USA, you can learn more and do so here. Or, if you want it to be tax-deductible, you can support his team as a whole here.

    Despite our family’s relative “accolades” in sports, we’re not the most athletic people. 

    My dad used to joke that our people were meant to own the teams, not play for them. 

    So, despite the lack of raw athleticism, what drives us to success?  I believe the answer is mindset.

    The Secret To Success

     

    Your mindset is a set of beliefs that shape how you make sense of the world and yourself.  It influences how you think, feel, and behave in any given situation.

    My family jokes that my first complete sentence was, “It’s my way, and you’re in it.”  Meanwhile, I also believe that “the game isn’t over until I win.” Combine those beliefs … and it explains why my feet would still be moving toward my goals even if you shot me in the head.

    Likewise, my son has continued to reach new heights in rugby because he’s stayed committed and hard-working long after most of his more athletic peers gave up.

    Life is not just a sprint; it’s a marathon (that requires you to sprint intermittently more often than you want or are comfortable doing). 

    How long can you put more effort in … and how many times can you fail without giving up?  The answer is as long as you choose! 

    The habits and lessons of resilience and grit serve well in sports, business, and life.

    Too many give up right before they win. 

    Frankly, too many people stop at the beginning.  But you will likely suck at something before you are okay at it.  Likewise, you have to be okay before you can be good.  Then you have to be good before you can be great!

    It takes time and energy to separate yourself from the pack. 

    My father taught me that most people’s lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and how to meet the minimum standards for them as well.

    Here is something else worth sharing; it was one of his favorite sayings.  “The difference between good and great is infinitesimal.” People who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.

    The secret to “better” is to set higher standards and commit to achieving them.

    It is really quite simple.

    1. Set big goals and high standards
    2. Plan how to get there
    3. Never stop moving
    4. Never give up

    If you follow those rules, it’s hard not to succeed. 

  • Skype’s Kodak Moment: Remnants of a Past Era

    Last week, Microsoft announced that Skype would shut down in May … after over two decades of service. 

    Hydrox existed before Oreo, and Betamax before VHS.

    But Skype might be even more surprising. Skype was so ubiquitous that it became a verb and eponymous with video calling. As a world traveler, Skype also used to be the go-to international calling app.

    Imagine if Kleenex, Jell-O, or Band-Aids went out of business. 

    That’s what Skype did – and it’s not the first tech business to fail similarly…

    Thinking Linearly in an Exponential Age

    Humans can’t do a lot of things. Honestly, the fact that we’re at the top of the food chain is pretty miraculous. 

    We’re slow, weak, and famously bad at understanding large numbers or exponential growth. 

    Making matters worse, our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.

    It’s a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications. 

    Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … RadioShack couldn’t understand a future where shopping was done online – and Kodak didn’t think digital cameras would replace good ol’ film. Blockbuster couldn’t foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes because “part of the joy is seeing all your options!” They didn’t even make it long enough to see “Netflix and Chill” become a thing. The list goes on. 

     

    via Diamandis

    Human perception is linear. Technological growth is exponential.

    There are many examples. Here is one Peter Diamandis calls “The Kodak Moment” (a play on words of “a Kodak Moment”… the phrase Kodak used in advertising to mean a “special moment that’s worth capturing with a camera”). 

    In 1996, Kodak was at the top of its game, with a market cap of over $28 billion and 140,000 employees.

    Few people know that 20 years earlier, in 1976, Kodak had invented the digital camera. It had the patents and the first-mover advantage.

    But that first digital camera was a baby that only its inventor could love and appreciate.

    That first camera took .01 megapixel photos, took 23 seconds to record the image to a tape drive, and only shot in black and white.

    Not surprisingly, Kodak ignored the technology and its implications.

    Fast forward to 2012, when Kodak filed for bankruptcy – disrupted by the very technology that they invented and subsequently ignored.

    171220 Lessons From Kodak

    via Diamandis

    Innovation is a reminder that you can’t be medium-obsessed. Kodak’s goal was to preserve memories. It wasn’t to sell film. Blockbuster’s goal wasn’t to get people in their stores, it was to get movies in homes.  

    Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers, but never asking them what they wanted.

    Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn’t necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.

    Meanwhile, despite Skype having several features that Zoom still hasn’t implemented, Zoom recognized an opportunity during COVID and capitalized. When Microsoft bought Skype, they focused on adding several new features and expanding the range of services instead of improving the quality of their audio or video. Meanwhile, when Zoom entered the space, they brought much better servers and the ability to have much larger rooms. More attendees meant a wider variety of use cases and quicker adoption and referral cycles. They also made it easy to join a Zoom room. Instead of getting your e-mail up front and forcing you to create an account to use it, they let you join a meeting without an account. You only needed an account to host a meeting. 

    They focused on making it easy to use their service and on having a clear identity instead of trying to ride every wave and become unfocused. Of course, at the same time, Microsoft stopped focusing on the tool, with an increased focus on their new competitor to Zoom, Teams. 

    Tech and AI are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).

    Opportunity or Chaos …  You get to decide.

    Don’t forget … you don’t have to be the first mover to win in the end. 

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 9th, 2025

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Triumph Through Trials: Becoming Anti-Fragile

    Many of our best decisions, timeliest course corrections, or significant innovations occur after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why many psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.

    It's there if you look for it. That painful event becomes the catalyst for either something new, a better way, or a level-up.

    The goal isn't just to survive – it's to thrive. While a robust business can withstand shocks and a resilient business can recover from them, an anti-fragile business improves and grows stronger when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors.  The interesting thing about this concept is that it doesn't mean not fragile. It means things that weaken other systems are actually the things that strengthen you. 

    Of course, that's not the case for everyone or every event … It takes the right mindset and the right actions to turn a trial into a triumph. 

    As we see the world changing rapidly, both through AI and through Trump's presidency, I think back to 2008 and how a prior incarnation of algorithms fared against it (spoiler alert: not nearly as well as this time). They say the things that don't kill you make you stronger. Here's my trial into triumph story about that. 

     

    Via Howard Getson's YouTube Channel.

    Too many people become victims of their circumstances instead of choosing to be the master of their destinies. 

    Life is harder for people who live a life of least resistance. Doing the hard things and making the most of bad times makes life better and, ultimately, easier. 

    Tony Robbins calls this the Threshold of Control. If you push through the fear and the struggle … as you persevere, eventually, what was scary becomes easy. You've increased your threshold, and that's often a permanent improvement.  

    Here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.

    Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.

    1. Accept Reality: We are where we are. Focus on being complete with what happened before this – and think about this as a new beginning with an even bigger future.
    2. Do Something Positive: Take action and build momentum and confidence. Big wins are great. Yet, in scary times, even small items are worth noting, building upon, and stacking. Let progress build positive momentum for you.
    3. Take Care of Yourself: Increase your physical activity, meditation, and massage. Take time to eat and sleep well. Many studies show decision-making suffers when you're stressed. Caring for yourself goes a long way to improving many other things.
    4. Communicate More: The natural tendency is to hide or to recuperate in private. Instead, be open and receptive to help and ideas from friends, partners, or wherever it may come.
    5. Creative Destruction: The old game and the old ways of thinking are over. Shift your energy to what is working. Commit to the result you want rather than the process.
    6. Increase Your Options: It often takes a different level of thinking to solve a problem than the level of thinking that got you there in the first place. So, be open to opportunities, new possibilities, and more ways to win.
    7. Choose a Bigger Future: Instead of resigning yourself to playing small and doing with less, recognize that a clearing creates space for something even better. Choose what you want and call it into existence through your thoughts and actions.

    They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday, you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

  • Are we in a Stock Market Bubble?

    The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) has recently been nearing historic highs. Traders think that signals that market valuations might be overheated. 

    In December of last year, it hit 37.9, over double its long-term average of 17.6. For context, it has only exceeded that level during the Dot-Com bubble and in 2021. 

     

    via visualcapitalist

    Overheated prices mean that there's a significant gap between company earnings and stock prices. That disparity translates to speculation and hope driving the stock price instead of more quantitative data. 

    For some historical perspective, after the Dot-Com bubble, the S&P declined by 40% in the following two years. And after its 2021 peak, the S&P sank almost 20%. 

    While AI enthusiasm has brought a spark to the markets, the question is, is that hype hiding deeper issues?

    On a broader note, my message to you would be that if you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one. Investors and traders should understand market indicators, economic trends, and other world factors – mainly because it's important to be educated (or at least informed). Of course, merely understanding these things does not translate to a reliable trading strategy or an edge in today's environment. 

    Lastly, just because something has been true in the past does not mean it predicts the future. In trading, we use the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results" to remind us that there is a difference between a coincidence and a correlation. Indicators like CAPE study the past, so it is dangerous to assume you can use them to predict the future. For better or worse, whether markets go up or down is based on much more than earnings and stock prices. 

    But, with that said,  Warren Buffett just did something worth noting … He sold his holdings in the S&P 500 index funds he tells everyone to buy. So why did Buffett just sell them himself?

    We live in interesting times.  

    Onwards!

  • Is The NYSE Moving To Texas?

    While I mainly discuss entrepreneurship and technology trends, I still have a soft spot for trading, which remains a large part of what we do at Capitalogix. While we've broadened the industries in which we use our Capitalogix Insight Engine, it was originally built with trading technologies in mind. We have exciting new partnerships there, including a new fund.

    As we look forward, I thought it was a good time to look back as well.

    I'm sure you have heard about open outcry trading pits in Chicago and New York—where traders flashed hand signals lightning quick to buy and sell commodities like cattle, corn, gold, and pork bellies. Those pits, which were made famous in the movie Trading Places, thrived for decades. Nevertheless, the practice has lost out to a faster, cheaper, and quieter competitor: the computer and electronic trading.

    In 2016, I visited the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and took this video in front of the S&P trading pit during live trading hours. 

     

    via my YouTube Channel.

    In the video, I remarked that even though it looked empty – trading volume was higher than ever. Meaning that trading had once again evolved beyond the way it used to happen. According to the CME Group, by 2015, public outcry had fallen to 1% of total volume. Here is a video of what the S&P trading pit used to look like.

     

    "…the change in the pit isn't a harbinger of death for futures trading;  it's the signal of a new era." 

     

    At the time, it didn't feel like a bold statement to me – because what was coming felt inevitable. And it has proven to be true. Markets have changed radically since 2016. And you can bet that the changes aren't done, as AI and exponential technologies promise to transform markets and trading again.

    The process of trading and clearing is moving beyond human capabilities. As the old duties of the Exchange fade away, the focus must be on the dangers, opportunities, and strengths of a bigger future. That means new games to play, new risks to navigate, and a new set of rewards to capture.

     

    IMG_0392

    Nearly empty CME trading pits in 2016 (specifically, the S&P and Eurodollar)

    The new game involves not only new players, methods, and markets … but also a new geography.

    Yes, as more things become digital, geography still matters.

    In 2018, the Intercontinental Exchange acquired CHX and rebranded it to the NYSE Chicago. Now, that branch of the NYSE is moving to Dallas. 

    This follows announcements in 2024 of the launch of the Texas Stock Exchange, which has backing from people like Rick Perry. 

    Texas is rapidly becoming an even larger economic hub. It boasts the highest number of NYSE listings, Nasdaq recently established a large base here, and companies representing more than $3.7 trillion in market value list Texas as their headquarters.

    Meanwhile, lawmakers are pushing to make Texas even more business-friendly. With no corporate or personal income tax, Texas has one of the lowest tax burdens in the nation. The state also offers incentives for corporations to relocate.

    All of this can be taken as a reminder that opportunities, talent, and resources concentrate where energy and funds flow. 

    If you want to talk more about how to launch a business in Texas or anything Capitalogix is working on, reach out. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – March 2nd, 2025

    This is how stressful the stock market has been | CARTOONS | Drawing Board | Opinion

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • A Look At Last Week’s Tech Breakthroughs

    We live in exciting times!

    No, I'm not talking about how fast the DOGE team is terraforming government.

    I'm talking about how fast the insights of exponential technologies are compounding the real-world implications of where we are and where we are going.

    In past issues, we've talked about how quickly the world is changing, how fast innovations happen, and why it's not about today's tools but rather the value and capabilities of the foundational assets we build upon … and, ultimately, the things that makes possible.

    Today's commentary is different from our usual posts. Yes, the inspiration came from my weekly curation of links selected based on what captured my attention or imagination. However, today's post is about the sheer volume and density of groundbreaking innovations competing for mindshare and investment dollars. And while commercial success is a great way to keep score, we'll explore what this accelerating pace of innovation means for our future and the world.

     

    In-a-fast-changing-world-focus-on-the-customer-problem

    So, here is a list of some of the things that made headlines this week.

    Some may not matter to you now. Try re-reading the list while letting yourself be amazed at what is happening!

    Any one of these is a momentous achievement that would have sounded like science fiction even 10 years ago. Now, that's one week of achievement. 

    As someone whose company invents things for a living, I understand that none of these breakthroughs were actually invented last week. Obviously, a long and winding road leads to each of those announcements. However, it's remarkable to see so many significant innovations reaching the stage of public announcement simultaneously.

    It's hard to quantify the impact of these innovations on not only the tech industry – but the world. 

    Think about the implications. Google's co-scientist is already solving problems that humans haven't been able to solve for decades. Clone is building robots that will use the next generations of AI to transform how we think about what artificial intelligence looks like. 

    Not to mention the improvement in quantum computing and nuclear fusion, industries that I've been paying attention to since the 90s. 

    While any of these topics would have made a good article, in my opinion, the whole is more impressive than the sum of its parts.

    If I had to pick one of those topics to highlight, I think it's now time to start focusing more on quantum computing. 

    To start, here's an hour-long interview with Satya Nadella about Microsoft's new quantum chip – and what it means for AI & business. 

     

    via Dwarkesh Patel

    Most of you probably aren't interested in watching the whole thing, but here are some of the highlights. 

    • They've created a new state of matter called a topological superconductor.
    • The qubits created with topological superconductors are fast, reliable, and small … very small.
    • These new qubits are 1/100th of a millimeter, meaning we now have a clear path to a million-qubit processor.
    • To put that in perspective, imagine a chip that can fit in the palm of your hand yet can solve problems that even all the computers on Earth today combined can't! 
    • Satya doesn't believe in making claims about how quickly AGI is coming.
    • However, he believes it is useful and productive to set a benchmark of making the world 10% better.
    • He also believes the topological superconductor breakthrough makes quantum computing a practical reality that can happen in a few years – not decades +.

    Prepare for things to get more interesting.

    We do live in exciting times!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 23rd, 2025

    The End Is Artificially near – CLAYTOONZ

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links: