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  • A Quick Visit to Cuba

    I went to Havana with a diverse group of business people, financial professionals and representatives from the US Fed. 

    Here is a photo taken with some of the classic cars that proudly dominate the roads despite cheaper Russian and  Chinese alternatives.

     

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    The city was beautiful … dirty and broken, for sure … but still beautiful.  Here is a view from my hotel room.

      

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    I commented that it was almost like seeing a severely wounded elephant. You can tell that it's hurt (and barely a shadow of its old self). Nevertheless, you can see the amazing bone structure. It is easy to imagine what it once was.

    In Cuba, the geography and the architecture are amazing. However, money hasn't been spent on the upkeep. Even though people live there, it seems surreal (almost like a post-apocalyptic wasteland).

     

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    In the story of Exodus, the Jews spent 40 years wandering the desert after escaping from Egypt. That means two generations of people, who didn't remember life as slaves, were ultimately the ones who entered the “Promised Land”.

    On some level, that's how Cuba is now. Most inhabitants weren’t born (or can’t remember) the 1960s. They have known nothing but this.

    Cuba is an interesting place … and I’d bet that it has an interesting future.

    The “lack” had a side effect. It produced a mutation. A portion of society grew more resourceful and resilient.

     

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    Like natural selection … nature finds a way.

    The rules change, the players change, even the game itself changes … That is how new ideas and new leaders emerge.

    Sometimes, almost no one notices. Sometimes they do. 

    Ultimately, change remains the only constant.

    Onwards!

  • Can Artificial Intelligence Replace Human Perception?

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    As humans, we can only interpret based on what we know … and for the most part, we don't know what we don't know. 

    In the beginning of artificial intelligence, humans would teach computers certain rules (or tell the computer that it should optimize on a certain measure).  Now, computers are capable of figuring things out themselves.

    The success of AI at deep learning or reinforcement learning is about to sky-rocket.  The technology and the learning frameworks are progressing quickly … combine that with hardware advances and expect to be amazed.

    Recently,  a Deep Learning computation-imaging system correctly predicted which patients were pending heart failure with 97% accuracy - compared to human pathologists who are correct approximately 74% of the time.   That is a meaningful difference, especially if the life at risk is yours (or that of a loved one).  

    And that's only one example. There's an AI assistant in Denmark that listens to the equivalent of 911 calls and diagnoses heart problems and predictive analytics is often used in actuarial sciences, social networking, and in many financial service applications. 

    Computers Don't Get Distracted

    Error is not a fault of our knowledge, but a mistake of our judgment giving assent to that which is not true. – John Locke

    It makes sense that these machines can be more accurate than humans because ultimately, many of these applications are essentially checklists. The machine looks for symptoms a, b, and c, compiles, and then analyzes for the cause. 

    Machine logic is great at that. Human logic … not so much. There are too many distractions, biases, and a tendency to relate current situations to past ones. 

    When it comes to markets, we're victim to a lot of survivorship bias. Looking at markets and patterns has worked great for survivors – purportedly … but what percentage of active traders beat the S&P more than 1 year in a row? The answer is a staggering minority. 

    As humans, we're often victim to what I like to call:

    The "Nightlight in the Dark" Phenomenon.  

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    A nightlight makes you feel safer – but likely won't keep you safe from anything that's trying to hurt you. 

    When you're in Vegas you may have strategies and rituals that you think provide an edge – but it doesn't make you any more likely to beat their system. 

    In that same vein, tracking markets is a distraction agent in trading … You shouldn't care what markets are doing, you should care about how your systems are doing.  

    The paradigm shift is that with algorithms – and artificial intelligence – I don't care that I understand why something is working, I care that my systems are valid and performing well.  I don't have to understand why it's valid – only that it's valid consistently over time. 

    All the best traders I know aren't looking for a better algorithm, they're looking for more ways to win. 

    Most AI methodologies are simple systems trained on extensive data lakes with simple goals … And that's a good thing.

    Simple works. Simple is hard to break. Simple means there's likely more consistency. As well, as we get better at Swarm Intelligence, these simple systems can communicate with each other and benefit from the wisdom of the crowd. 

    Can Artificial Intelligence Replace Human Perception?

    With trading,  AI has been adopted because ultimately it's up to the individual/firm to apply … but what about highly regulated instances like autonomous cars or in a doctor's office. 

    Even when it works, if an AI gets the decision wrong it opens you up for huge liability (even if the AI is right more often than a human would be). 

    While AI is an inevitability – it's much slower in certain industries than others.

    It's a long road ahead – but a necessary one. 

    Onwards!

     

  • How Long Does It Take To Get 50 Million Users?

    Cool tech often gets adopted by porn and gambling before more mainstream uses.

    Porn was the launchpad for video streaming, mobile-enabled sites, VR, and (unfortunately) pop-up ad technologies. 

    With that said, the next chart surprised me.  It shows the number of years it took for various products to gain 50 million users.

     

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    Pornhub tracks data like its business depends on it.  Well, it is the number one site for pornography.  What does that mean? In 2018, over 5,517,700,000 hours of porn was watched on their site. That’s approximately 6,298 centuries of video.

    Moreover, last year, it got  33.5 BILLION visits. That’s 1,064 people a second, or 92 million a day.  To put that in perspective, that's more people than live in the entire country of Germany.

    Here are some additional factoids about its use.

    • 4403 Petabytes of data transferred (574 MB of data for every person on earth)
    • Consumed more bandwidth than the entire internet in 2002
    • Stormy Daniels was the number 1 "trend" search in 2018  (followed by Fortnite …)
    • 4k ultra-hd overtook 1080p in search trends

     

    via Pornhub

    For the full list of stats click here. 

    They are so popular, it is almost obscene.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 13th, 2019

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

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  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 6th, 2019

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

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  • A.I. in Film: A Retrospective

    AI has been around in science fiction for over 1oo years. As it becomes reality, it's amusing to look at different depictions and attempt to connect the dots. 

    AI first broke onto the film scene with Metropolis in 1927. "Maria" the evil robot disguising herself as a human played on many human fears; deception, lack of control, and perhaps most importantly being replaced.

    Maria represented a future that was bleak and set the foundation for AI in cinema. Since then, there have been approximately 100 movies starring AI.

    According to Enlighten Digital,  52% of movies portray AI positively, which means it's about 50/50, and there has been a 144% increase in AI movies since 2010 – so we're becoming more saturated with AI.

    According to a study by Cambridge, seeing more films portraying robots (whether positive or negative) is associated with more positive attitudes toward robots. This is in line with the theory that the more exposure one has with "out-group" members (i.e. robots, or people of other races) the more positive one's attitude toward them. 

     

    Robots-Agglomeration-Infographic_Edit(Click to view Full Size) via NovaStor 

    The depiction of AI has always been a reflection of its time … as our values, ambitions, and technology has changed, so has on-screen AI. 

    So what does today's AI look like?

    On HBO, we have Westworld. In movies, iRobot, Chappie, and Blade Runner 2049 … it's clear the promise and the peril of AI has continued to evolve.

    These movies all have different tones but there's a trope that remains common from that initial film in 1927 to films in 2018. 

    We're always imagining that next step. What's going to happen as AI becomes (in some ways) smarter than us? What's going to happen when our creations surpass our control? What's going to happen if the line between human and robot blurs?

    There are a lot of advancements in real-life, in respect to AI. As such, there is a lot of movement on AI ethics, and how to best limit or best enable AI. 

    In film, we gravitate toward two extremes – utopias and dystopias. In real life, we can recognize those extremes are unlikely … but the effect of AI is still profound. 

    We're expanding a technology with the ability to radically change our world – for better or worse – so it's important to keep a purpose-driven approach. We can't lose track of humanity in the pursuit of AI. 

    Metropolis's final title card (that first AI movie from 1927)  still rings true … "The Mediator Between the Head and the Hands Must Be the Heart"

     

    The Heartbeat of AI is Still Human_GapingVoid

    Onwards!

  • Gil Brandt and the Innovation of Modern Football

    I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking that I see in football.

    I've written posts about how much regular businesses could learn from watching football teams. That post talks about how even high school teams have a position-by-position depth chart. They have a game plan for their next opponent. They practice plays on both offense and defense. They watch game film of their past games and future opponents. And, they coach the team as a team, and the players individually. 

    Often, simple ideas, applied consistently, are enough to win.

    Last night I was at a Dallas Cowboys playoff game (note that is not an oxymoron) … and I took a picture with this guy.

     

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    I see him at every game … and every game he wears a different creative and well-thought-out costume. He sits on the 50-yard line, He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch. Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.

    Yesterday, I also had the honor of meeting Gil Brandt at the game. For those of you not familiar with him, he was the vice president of player personnel (or Chief Scout) of the Dallas from 1960 to 1989.  He helped Dallas grow into one of the most powerful and popular sports franchises in America. His innovative management and personnel systems are standard operating procedure today for many teams at the professional and collegiate levels nationwide. 

      

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    Many consider him the architect of the Dallas Cowboys. I'm not talking about the stadium or headquarters, I'm talking about their teams and ideas that were the catalyst to "America's Team".  I took this from his Wikipedia page.

    He helped pioneer many of the scouting techniques used by NFL clubs today,[2] such as:

     

    Gil Brandt is one step closer to joining the NFL's ultimate pantheon – The Pro Football Hall of Fame.  He has been nominated as a contributor finalist for the Class of 2019. The contributor category recognizes "individuals who made outstanding contributions to professional football in capacities other than playing or coaching."

    He's an inspiration. Not only did he innovate how teams draft and measure talent … he's the guy who figured out how to make cheerleaders an iconic symbol of a team and the game itself.

  • Bringing In The New Year

    This was a busy year for me.

    I made over 100 plane trips and traveled about 200,000 miles.

    I understand my goals and what it takes to achieve them (even if it means flying around the world too many times).

    My last trip of the year was a quickie to New York with Jennifer to watch the Cowboys pull out a very close 36-35 win. 

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    She saw "some" of it.

    It was fun spending time with Jen.  Hope you're enjoying time with family too. 
     
    Best wishes for a Happy New Year! 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – December 30th, 2018

    Christmas Eve saw Dow's historic low … but it was immediately followed with a 1086 point rally (its largest single-day gain). The S&P and Dow both rallied approximately 5%.

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

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  • Setting Yourself Up For Success

    We're about to usher in a new year – along with its promise and pressure.

    We get a fresh start.  We look forward to what we will achieve – but history says we rarely achieve everything we hope (it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for).

    So, dream big dreams!

    Personally, I’m excited about 2019. Despite the volatile market and uncertain political climate, Capitalogix has spent almost 20 years preparing for where we are today. 

    Regardless of the outcome, we are doing things that seemed like science fiction even a few years ago.  

    I commissioned this image to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

     

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    Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

    In the spirit of New Year's Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

    Commit to your bigger, directional compass, goals. 

    Once you know what your long-term goal is, it is relatively easy to plan out the steps you need to achieve that goal.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces success, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

    Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Sensitive).

    It's not "I want to lose weight this year" it's "I want to exercise at least three times a week and track my calories daily so I lose at least 1 pound each month."

    Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

    If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control on your victory.  This also means that you don't need to tell others your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of you succeeding. 

    Ask yourself: 

    Are the people around you the right people? Are you putting your money where your mouth is? Are you taking ownership of your actions, even when you can find excuses not to?

    It's okay to misstep, it's okay to get stuck – but recognize what you've done and move forward. 

    Often the most frustrating thing that any of us feel on a regular basis is to want something really bad, and not be able to get it right away.

    It's getting so that it's increasingly rare to find people who are truly willing to put in the requisite time necessary to get the traits or items they want.  Our world today is trying to teach us that we must get what we want immediately; that it's our right.  And that's why so many of us are jealous, smoke or drink, are overweight, use drugs, etc. …

    Life is NOT like school.

    In school, you can trick yourself into thinking you're doing great if you cram for exams and get decent scores. It is possible to get fairly good grades for a while that way.

    But you don't learn it.  You're likely to just remember it until the exam is over… maybe.

    In school, you can fool the system and yourself.  In the rest of the world, success leaves clues (and an imprint on you and your behavior patterns).

    Real life is like a farm.

    On the farm, you must choose what to plant.  Then, you must move the rocks, buy the seeds, till the soil, plant the seeds, buy and maintain the equipment, pull weeds, keep the pests away, water the crops, fertilize, etc.  And, for the most part, it’s not one and done … you need to keep up with what’s needed every day!

     

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    Follow the plan, and with some luck, you’ll harvest a decent crop at the end of the season.

    Life is like this, too.  You can't "cram" in life. 

    Don't be fooled.  Overnight successes often take a lot longer than you’d think to gestate.

    Luck often takes a lot work.  

    Put the effort in today and you'll get luckier and luckier.  Will it be immediate?  Probably not.  Beat this into your head… Anything truly worth having is worth the time, the effort, and the sacrifice you need to invest in order to get it.

    My grandkids one day will look back and say "Wow, our grandpa sure was in the right place at the right time." And to a certain degree, they're right … but it took a lot of work to be this lucky. 

    It's also important (once you've accomplished your goal) to set new goals. Capitalogix has a 20-year plan from today, and that's because I never got comfortable with what we'd accomplished.

    If you're standing still, you're moving backward. 

    Here's to a successful 2019 and an even more successful 2040.  

    Onwards!