August 2020

  • Gartner’s 2020 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies

    Each year, I share an article about Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. It's one of the few reports that I make sure to track every year. It does a good job of explaining what technologies are reaching maturity, but which technologies are being supported by the cultural zeitgeist. 

    Technology has become cultural. It influences almost every aspect of every-day life, and it's also a massive differentiator in today's competitive landscape. 

    Sorting through which technologies are making real waves (and will impact the world) and which technologies are a flash in the pan, can be a monumental task. Gartner's report is a great benchmark to compare reality against. 

    2019's trends lead nicely into 2020's trends. While there have been a lot of innovations, the industry movers have stayed the same – advanced AI and analytics, post-classical computing and communication, and the increasing ubiquity of technology (sensors, augmentation, IoT, etc.). 

    What's a "Hype Cycle"?

    As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

    At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

    Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

    Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

    1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
    2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
    3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
    4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
    5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

    Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

    That being said – it's worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can't predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity. 

    What's exciting this year?

    Before I focus on this year, it's important to remember that last year Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle. This points toward more innovation and more technologies being introduced than in the genesis of this report. Many of the technologies from last year (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are represented within newer modalities. 

    It's also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies. 

    For comparison, here's my article from last year, and here's my article from 2015. Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year's Hype Cycle.

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    via Gartner

    This year's ~30 key technologies were selected from over 2000 technologies and bucketed into 5 major trends:

    • Composite Architectures represent the organizational shift to agile and responsive architectures due to decentralization and increased volatility. Emphasis is on modularity, continuous improvement, and adaptive innovation to respond to changing market conditions (like in trading, or in businesses rapidly shifting to remote). Sample technologies include embedded AI and private 5G
    • Algorithmic Trust is a direct result of increasing data exposure, fake news, and biased algorithms. As a result, technologies have been built to "ensure" identities, privacy, and security. A great example is more technologies being created on the blockchain. Other examples include explainable AI and authenticated provenance
    • Beyond Silicon is in its infancy, but represents the limitations of Moore's law and the physical of silicon. This has led to new advanced materials with enhanced capabilities being used, and other simple materials being used. Examples of this technology can be seen in  DNA computing and storage, quantum computing, and biodegradable sensors. 
    • Formative AI is the shift towards more responsive AI; models that adapt over time and models that can create novel solutions to solve specific problems. Sample technologies include generative AI, self-supervising learning, and composite AI. 
    • Digital me represents the integration of technology with people, both in reality and virtual reality. Past hype cycles have introduced implants and wearables, but the potential applications of the technology are growing, especially in response to social distancing.  Examples are health passports, Two-way BMI, and social distancing technologies. 

    I'm always most interested in the intersection of AI and advanced analytics. This year, it looks like many of the fledgling AI technologies have become integrated and more advanced. Much like the formative years for children, formative AI represents a new era in AI maturity. Models are becoming more generalized, and able to attack more problems. They're becoming integrated with human behavior (and even with humans as seen in digital me). 

    As we reach new echelons of AI, it's actually more likely that you'll see over-hype and short-term failures. As you reach for new heights, you often miss a rung on the ladder… but it doesn't mean you stop climbing. More importantly, it doesn't mean failure or even a lack of progress.  Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, stronger, more resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you wanted (or something better).  It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.

    To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch … Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. 

    Many of these technologies have been hyped for years – but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate a year and underestimate 10. 

    Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – August 30th, 2020

    242707

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Turning Thoughts Into Things

    Well done is better than well said – Benjamin Franklin

    Turning thoughts into things is an important skill set to understand.

    Visionaries tend to spend a lot of their time exploring the future. In and of itself, this is neither good nor bad.

    If you generate a lot of ideas (but don't properly cultivate and structure them) those ideas can easily become a distraction to you and your team. 

    When properly managed and pursued methodically and purposefully – those same ideas become the catalyst for massive progress. 

    There are three main ways, I believe you can make thoughts into things:

    • Focus Your Energy – People often focus more on what they don't want, rather than on what they do want. By directing your energy and focus toward opportunities and possibilities, it becomes a lot more likely that you will recognize and take advantage of opportunities and possibilities when they appear or occur. 
    • Imagine Your Future – One of my favorite quotes is " the best way to predict the future is to create it." Abraham Lincoln originally said it, but I've thought or said it enough it feels like mine to me.  By deeply imagining the future you want to call into existence, and thinking about it with that end in mind, it becomes easier to imagine the intermediary goals or milestones needed to reach your desired goals.  The basic outline brings order to the chaos … and the strategies and tactics needed come from the finer distinctions you make thinking about each part (or what is needed to reach the next milestone).
    • Make It Tangible – Name it!  Naming something is powerful. Whether it's a product in your business, a concept, or a goal. Making it tangible solidifies it in your mind, and in the mind of others.  Think about what happens if you reach it (and what would happen if you fail).  Come up with the criteria that provides evidence of success.  What would it look like?  How would it perform?  What does it make possible? What would it prevent? How would it impact key measures of efficiency, effectiveness, or certainty?  What can you do about it now?

    Ultimately, each of these ideas is entirely dependent on the actions you're willing to take. And how decisive you can be. 

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    What aren't you doing because you're overthinking it? Are there opportunities you are missing simply because you aren't looking for them?

    Onwards!

  • Data Really Is Beautiful

    I think most data scientists or traders would agree that some charts are just prettier than others.

    Whether it's due to the artistry of the creator, the results shown, or an insight or perspective illuminated … I am sometimes surprised by the beauty of a chart. 

    After looking at thousands of charts, some really do look "pretty" and others look "ugly" to the trader.  Perhaps this stems from an intuition honed through many trials of separating luck from skill?

    Taking a different approach is Stoxart, created by a visual designer at Nike named Gladys Orteza.  She has been turning stock charts into landscape artworks related to the company they reference.  All that's missing is the warning that past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

    Here is an example of her art inspired by Ford's performance in the last year.  Maybe she should have titled it "Sunset".

    Rbdvb8qjsog51via LLMoonJ

     Another fun one is a year of Tesla performance. 

    Bl7sl41e7ff51via LLMoonJ

    Here's a link to see more Stoxart. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – August 23rd, 2020

    242585

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • A Look At The USPS

    The USPS postal service has been major news in recent weeks with mail-in voting being discussed, President Trump making clear he believes there will be corruption if he allows it, and the Postmaster-General removing hundreds of sorting machines. Then, a few days ago, the House voted to block recent changes and to allocate $25 billion to the postal service. 

    The goal of this article is to highlight the issues with as little politics as possible. This will not consider the timing of the President's actions or the claims that these actions were designed to limit a portion of the electorate's impact on the outcome of the election.

    To start, a United States postal service is mentioned in the constitution – but it doesn't state that the federal government has the exclusive power to deliver mail,  nor does it require the mail be delivered by the federal government to every home in the country, six days a week. The U.S. Constitution, in 1789, authorized Congress to establish “Post Offices and post Roads” but, unlike the Articles of Confederation, did not explicitly establish an exclusive monopoly.

    The USPS has been in a "financial crisis" for a long time, as more volume goes to competitors like UPS or FedEx. It's worth acknowledging that like many other governmental agencies (i.e. the military, the CDC, the weather service, NASA) it costs more to run than it makes. It's also worth acknowledging that the post office doesn't cost tax dollars, but survives primarily off of postage sold. 

    Mail_volumevia CATO

    Much of what the USPS offered to the general public is now done by private companies – and it could be argued, without the USPS's legal monopoly over letters and mailboxes, they could fill in some of those roles. The main people who benefit from the USPS are small businesses and rural communities. 

    While the USPS isn't profitable, many other delivery services are (look at UPS). Part of this is because UPS will not deliver to places that don't have the volume for bundling. And, when they do ship to remote places, they charge more to justify the effort. 

    A federal mail service currently provides stable costs across volume and distance (for the most part) but is that a reason to keep it?

    As a practical matter, public services can't be held to the same standards of profitability as private industry, but we have to be cognizant of the point of diminishing returns on public services.

    Absentee Voting Versus Universal "Vote by Mail"

    Absentee voting requires you to request a ballot ahead of time, meaning it's associated with a specific voter request. Vote by mail sends a ballot to all registered voters within a jurisdiction. 

    In America, we don't have to vote by mail, but most states allow absentee voting without the need for a valid excuse. 

    Vote_by_mailvia Brookings Institute

    In 2016, nearly one-quarter of U.S. votes were cast by mail. A Stanford study shows no partisan effect on absentee voting, and similar levels of voter fraud to in-person voting (though there are cases of fraud) but as we know in trading, past performance does not guarantee future results. 

    As with in-person voting, the main issue ultimately comes down to the integrity of the results. We've had numerous issues with flawed voting machines, ballot box stuffing, unregistered voters casting ballots, hanging chads, gerrymandering, and a host of issues.  For a fair election, the goal is to minimize (or eliminate) election fraud, election manipulation, or vote-rigging.  The rules, regulations (and even the process) should discourage or prevent illegal interference with the process of an election, either by increasing the vote share of the favored candidate, depressing the vote share of the rival candidates, or both.

    November should be interesting. 

  • My Talk With The Sustainable Family Wealth Summit

    I recently had the chance to speak at a wealth summit helping to educate family offices on the different opportunities available to them. Because of my work around the hedge fund space – and with emerging technologies like AI – I was brought in to focus on both topics for their audience.

    The financial industry is intimidating – especially to newcomers – and while this summit is targeted towards family offices with $5MM+ in liquid assets, the lessons are accessible to any level of wealth. 

    The presentation was somewhat of a departure from my normal talking points because it was more focused on the basics of hedge funds & trading in general.  Nonetheless, I think it's worth watching.  This clip shows my response to the moderator's previous presentation.  The presentation provides an introduction to hedge funds and alpha generation now and into the future.  We also talk about Madoff, performance fees, the 2008 crash, "why a hedge fund?" and a lot more. 

     

     

    Hope that helped.  Let me know what you think.

     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – August 16th, 2020

    242375

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • It’s Not About The Nail…

    Apparently, a lot of wisdom can be learned from nails. I've shared the story about the Nail in the Fence in the past. 

    This week a funny video called "It's Not About The Nail" recycled through my inbox again. 

    Have you seen it yet? It has had 20+ million views across various social media and syndication sites.  So, you've likely run across it even if you haven't watched it.
     
     

    via Jason Headley

    The short version is that a woman tries to communicate with her significant other about her headache, which he quickly identifies as (literally) a nail in her forehead, with a seemingly obvious solution: Let’s get rid of that nail. She insists that that is absolutely NOT the problem, and if he would just listen to her, that would be clear to him. She explains, clarifies, objects, etc. Eventually, he does see the light … and gives her not the solution he found so (literally) painfully obvious, but the solution she asked for.
     
    "Don't try to fix it. I just need you to listen." It's obvious.
     
    Good for a laugh, but, also good as a reminder. Simply put, a problem that may seem apparent to you may not be so obvious to the person with a problem … and that might be the real problem.

    Whether your takeaway is that we often miss the answer right in front of our face, or that we have to be aware of what other people need, or that you can't help people that don't want to be helped … you're right. 

     

  • The Disconnect Between the Stock Market and Consumers

    The recent shutdown has brought light to the disparity between markets and economics, and also served to widen the relationship. 

    In high school, most of us were taught basic supply and demand. Some probably took a macroeconomics course, fewer got an MBA, and I know some of you reading this are actual economists or traders. 

    Yet, most people (even some economists) misunderstand what drives financial markets. 

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    In theory, share price is supposed to be the net present value of the future earnings stream.  This is a "weighing" mechanism that also balances positives and negatives, short-term and long-term issues, industry cycles, fundamental data, and a host of other issues.

    The markets represented the collective fear and greed of a population.  A trader doesn't need to guess what someone specific is going to do … their calculus is more about the law of large numbers.  How will most people respond to a sudden move up or a sudden move down?  Will they see it as a danger or an opportunity?

    In a sense, markets operate like an actuary for an insurance company.  Actuaries don't need to know when you will die, specifically, but rather if they insure 10,000 people like you, how many are likely to die this year (and what premium can they charge to cover the death benefits to be paid, the cost of operations, plus their intended profit margin.

    In the basics of economics, markets and their consumers play a sort of tug-of-war until an equilibrium is set. Price represents the amount of money a consumer is willing to pay for this good (or a comparable good) and the amount of money a seller is willing to sell it for taking into account overhead, manufacturing, time-value, etc. 

    It's not necessarily the maximum cost a consumer would pay and minimum a seller would sell, but for the sake of this discussion, that nuance isn't overly important. 

    The markets were an important price discovery tool using "open outcry" as a way to see at what price others were willing to buy or sell.

    As markets got faster and transactions stopped being generated solely by people trading with people, the pricing mechanism changed.  I think of it as a fair value range surrounded by a fair speculation buffer.  As markets get faster, noisier, and more volatile, the fair speculation range expands.  That means pricing is more dynamic and edges decay faster than ever.

    This also means that less of the price is based on simple things, like whether the economy is improving or declining.  As we've seen, markets can soar even when economies face serious existential threats.

    Market structure, today, involves many more players investing for many different reasons. Gone are the days when the market waited with bated breath for Fed conferences, earnings reports, and presidential updates. Instead, you have speculators, passive investors, fundamental investors, quantitative investors, companies trying to hedge bets, market makers, manipulative algorithms, governments, and more … all involved in trench warfare seeking an edge. 

    They trade for different reasons – some may make sense logically to you, others are executing part of a strategy you may never figure out. But, together, they form the engine that powers the market.  Markets really are a collection of forces all focused on trading.

    Simplifying, you can look at the decline in the economy compared to the relative stability of the stock market (in light of the world shutting down), as proof of this. Economic stimulus played a massive role in propping up the market, but so did the comparative variety in why market participants trade. It's why you still see liquidity in the markets despite the decrease in consumer confidence and economic activity.  

    Sure, the government created increased liquidity, stimulated markets, and even participated directly (and indirectly) at plunge protection.  But that is the playing field all traders have to play on right now.  It doesn't matter if it reflects the realities you see in the economy or the world.

    Today's markets are much more complicated than before.  Moreover, the vast amount of information available (whether true, false, relevant, irrelevant, clarifying, or misleading) creates a vast signal-to-noise ratio challenge.  Meanwhile, many market participants (like many day-traders) have simply ridden the wave here, though it's unlikely that a vast majority of them truly understand what they're doing. Think of this as the "Smart Money" versus "Dumb Money" … and it doesn't usually end well for one of them.

    VisualCapitalist put together a great infographic looking at the difference in response to the shutdown via economic activity and the S&P 500 as of July 17th. 

    Take a look. 

    Understanding-the-Disconnect2via visualcapitalist

    The chart makes the valid point that the S&P 500 is not an equally-weighted index and is currently driven primarily by the tech giants, even with other industries struggling. 

    Consumer sentiment is still a factor, and news cycles can absolutely still impact stocks, as evidenced by Kodak's meteoric growth (and subsequent decline) last week. 

    All-in-all, there are lots of things influencing markets besides the economy. It is a lot to take in (especially for us humans who can only process seven things plus or minus two at any one time.

    It is no wonder that Smart Money is relying more on exponential technologies (like AI and Big Data).

    Be safe!

    Onwards!