January 2012

  • Here Are Some Interesting Links for Your Sunday Reading

    While traveling last week, I logged on to Facebook and found this gem from a friend.

    Between What I think, What I want to say, What I think I said, What I have really said, What you want to hear, What you think you hear, What you really hear, What you want to understand, and Understanding, there are 9 ways to be misunderstood.

    Well said; but still not sure I understand …

     

    120129 State of the Union - JD Crowe Political Cartoon

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Here Are Some Interesting Links for Your Sunday Reading

    While traveling last week, I logged on to Facebook and found this gem from a friend.

    Between What I think, What I want to say, What I think I said, What I have really said, What you want to hear, What you think you hear, What you really hear, What you want to understand, and Understanding, there are 9 ways to be misunderstood.

    Well said; but still not sure I understand …

     

    120129 State of the Union - JD Crowe Political Cartoon

     

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Explaining Modern Finance and Economics Using Booze & Broke Alcoholics

    Here is little story that makes it easy to understand what's been going wrong in Europe (and perhaps modern finance in general). 

    From reszatonline

    Helga is the proprietor of a bar.

    She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar.

    Drunk-main

    To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. 

    Helga keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers’ loans).

    Word gets around about Helga’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Helga’s bar. Soon, she has the largest sales volume for any bar in town.

    By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Helga gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Helga’s gross sales volume increases massively.

    Ahh, an opportunity.

    A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Helga’s borrowing limit.

    He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts (of the unemployed alcoholics) as collateral!!!

    At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS.These “securities” then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

    Naive investors don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as “AA” “Secured Bonds” really are debts of unemployed alcoholics.

    Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb! And the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation’s leading brokerage houses.

    Perhaps this isn't a great idea?

    One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Helga’s bar.

    He so informs Helga.

    Helga then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons.

    However, her clients, being unemployed alcoholics, cannot pay back their drinking debts.

    Since Helga cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy.

    The bar closes, and Helga’s 11 employees lose their jobs.

    Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank’s liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

    The fall-out?

    The suppliers of Helga’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

    Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

    Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the government.

    The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Helga’s bar.

    Feel like having a drink?

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • Explaining Modern Finance and Economics Using Booze & Broke Alcoholics

    Here is little story that makes it easy to understand what's been going wrong in Europe (and perhaps modern finance in general). 

    From reszatonline

    Helga is the proprietor of a bar.

    She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar.

    Drunk-main

    To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. 

    Helga keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers’ loans).

    Word gets around about Helga’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Helga’s bar. Soon, she has the largest sales volume for any bar in town.

    By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Helga gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Helga’s gross sales volume increases massively.

    Ahh, an opportunity.

    A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Helga’s borrowing limit.

    He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts (of the unemployed alcoholics) as collateral!!!

    At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS.These “securities” then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

    Naive investors don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as “AA” “Secured Bonds” really are debts of unemployed alcoholics.

    Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb! And the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation’s leading brokerage houses.

    Perhaps this isn't a great idea?

    One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Helga’s bar.

    He so informs Helga.

    Helga then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons.

    However, her clients, being unemployed alcoholics, cannot pay back their drinking debts.

    Since Helga cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy.

    The bar closes, and Helga’s 11 employees lose their jobs.

    Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank’s liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

    The fall-out?

    The suppliers of Helga’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

    Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

    Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the government.

    The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Helga’s bar.

    Feel like having a drink?

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • Some Interesting Links for Your Weekend Reading

    Big News: The Twinkie is Dead.

     

    120116 The End of the Twinkie Era

     

     

    The Mayans may have been right; the world might be ending.

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • How Much Faith Do You Put in “As Goes January, So Goes the Year”?

    Does a market rally in January imply anything for the rest of the trading year?  "As goes January, so goes the year." This particular phenomenon is what is referred to as the January Barometer.

    090102 January Barometer

    Is it true?  I don't know … but it is fun to examine.

    Many reputable services report the January Barometer's recent-history success rate at around 75%; so it is at least worth noting.

    I was going through some past research and found this chart from Chart of the Day from 2009.  It illustrates that the S&P 500 has performed much better (on average) during the months following a January gain.  The chart is a few years old, but recent years have followed this trend as well.

    John Murphy has a slightly different perspective; he says that what the market does during the first week of the new year often gives a clue about direction for the remainder of the year.

    Murphy cites the Stock Trader's Almanac, "S&P gains during January's first five trading days preceded full-year gains 86% of the time". The predictive ability of the month of January is nearly as impressive. "The January Barometer predicts the year's course with a .741 batting average. 12 of the last 14 post-election years followed January's direction" (Almanac).

    While the January barometer has a good record of prediction, Carl Swenlin still puts it in the "for what it's worth" column because, while it is interesting to note, it might simply be coincidental.  Likewise, Business Insider questioned the significance of this indicator in a note called "Don't Be Fooled By All Of The So-Called Market Wisdom".

    Nevertheless, we had a good start to that first week of January here in 2012 – and it has continued.  Let's hope it keeps up.

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • How Much Faith Do You Put in “As Goes January, So Goes the Year”?

    Does a market rally in January imply anything for the rest of the trading year?  "As goes January, so goes the year." This particular phenomenon is what is referred to as the January Barometer.

    090102 January Barometer

    Is it true?  I don't know … but it is fun to examine.

    Many reputable services report the January Barometer's recent-history success rate at around 75%; so it is at least worth noting.

    I was going through some past research and found this chart from Chart of the Day from 2009.  It illustrates that the S&P 500 has performed much better (on average) during the months following a January gain.  The chart is a few years old, but recent years have followed this trend as well.

    John Murphy has a slightly different perspective; he says that what the market does during the first week of the new year often gives a clue about direction for the remainder of the year.

    Murphy cites the Stock Trader's Almanac, "S&P gains during January's first five trading days preceded full-year gains 86% of the time". The predictive ability of the month of January is nearly as impressive. "The January Barometer predicts the year's course with a .741 batting average. 12 of the last 14 post-election years followed January's direction" (Almanac).

    While the January barometer has a good record of prediction, Carl Swenlin still puts it in the "for what it's worth" column because, while it is interesting to note, it might simply be coincidental.  Likewise, Business Insider questioned the significance of this indicator in a note called "Don't Be Fooled By All Of The So-Called Market Wisdom".

    Nevertheless, we had a good start to that first week of January here in 2012 – and it has continued.  Let's hope it keeps up.

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • The Two-Hour House [Time-Lapse Video]

    Is it possible to build a house in only two hours?

    Proving that nothing is impossible if you commit to it, the 2-Hour House chronicles an East Texas builder’s quest to overcome the odds, and accomplish what was perceived to be the impossible task of building a 2,249 square foot house, from the ground up, in less than three hours.

    To do so, they would have to pour a concrete slab that hardened in only 22 minutes and paint the house in the same time it takes to brush your teeth.

    Plans called for a traditional home that met or exceeded code at every turn. It took two years of planning, 1,000 volunteers from every trade and more than a little luck to pull it off.

    Here is a time-lapse video of the construction.

     

     

     

    What this team learned about life, leadership and the persistence of the human spirit will motivate you to transform your own life, work and home from the ground up.

    Records and "Rules" broken with the 2Hour House process:

    The rules say : 2 Hour House
    • It takes a day to set the forms, dig footings and set steel. 8 min
    • It takes a half a day to rough-in the plumbing.   7min
    • It takes a day to pour and finish concrete. 40min
    • It takes several hours to pop the lines before setting walls. 10min
    • It takes at least a day to frame the walls. 15min
    • It takes a day to rough-in the electrical.   15min
    • It takes a day to put in the wall plumbing.   15min
    • It takes a day to shingle the roof.   30min
    • It takes a half a day to insulate the walls and attic. 10min
    • It takes at least a day to sheetrock.   15min
    • It takes at least four days to tape, bed, and texture the walls. 20min
    • It takes two days to paint. 10min
    • It takes a half a day to install the flower beds and trees. 10min
    • It takes a day to do the final grade.   10min
    • It takes a day to lay the grass.   10min
    • It takes a day to set the kitchen cabinets.   15min
    • It takes a day to set the bathroom cabinets.   10min
    • It takes a day to install the heating and cooling. 10min
    • It takes a day to do the interior doors and base boards. 15min
    • It takes a half a day to install the garage door. 3min
    • It takes a half a day to put in the countertops. 10min

     

    What would it take to shift your mindset from ordinary to extraordinary? And which constraints can you re-evaluate and eliminate?

    What Does The 2-Hour House Teach?

    Think of the innovation, creative thinking, and break-thru communication and collaboration strategies needed to pull-this-off.  What about leadership, team-building, and management expectations? 

    Try to imagine what type of project management process this would require? 

    Here is a link to videos that provide more information.

     

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • The Two-Hour House [Time-Lapse Video]

    Is it possible to build a house in only two hours?

    Proving that nothing is impossible if you commit to it, the 2-Hour House chronicles an East Texas builder’s quest to overcome the odds, and accomplish what was perceived to be the impossible task of building a 2,249 square foot house, from the ground up, in less than three hours.

    To do so, they would have to pour a concrete slab that hardened in only 22 minutes and paint the house in the same time it takes to brush your teeth.

    Plans called for a traditional home that met or exceeded code at every turn. It took two years of planning, 1,000 volunteers from every trade and more than a little luck to pull it off.

    Here is a time-lapse video of the construction.

     

     

     

    What this team learned about life, leadership and the persistence of the human spirit will motivate you to transform your own life, work and home from the ground up.

    Records and "Rules" broken with the 2Hour House process:

    The rules say : 2 Hour House
    • It takes a day to set the forms, dig footings and set steel. 8 min
    • It takes a half a day to rough-in the plumbing.   7min
    • It takes a day to pour and finish concrete. 40min
    • It takes several hours to pop the lines before setting walls. 10min
    • It takes at least a day to frame the walls. 15min
    • It takes a day to rough-in the electrical.   15min
    • It takes a day to put in the wall plumbing.   15min
    • It takes a day to shingle the roof.   30min
    • It takes a half a day to insulate the walls and attic. 10min
    • It takes at least a day to sheetrock.   15min
    • It takes at least four days to tape, bed, and texture the walls. 20min
    • It takes two days to paint. 10min
    • It takes a half a day to install the flower beds and trees. 10min
    • It takes a day to do the final grade.   10min
    • It takes a day to lay the grass.   10min
    • It takes a day to set the kitchen cabinets.   15min
    • It takes a day to set the bathroom cabinets.   10min
    • It takes a day to install the heating and cooling. 10min
    • It takes a day to do the interior doors and base boards. 15min
    • It takes a half a day to install the garage door. 3min
    • It takes a half a day to put in the countertops. 10min

     

    What would it take to shift your mindset from ordinary to extraordinary? And which constraints can you re-evaluate and eliminate?

    What Does The 2-Hour House Teach?

    Think of the innovation, creative thinking, and break-thru communication and collaboration strategies needed to pull-this-off.  What about leadership, team-building, and management expectations? 

    Try to imagine what type of project management process this would require? 

    Here is a link to videos that provide more information.

     

    Enhanced by Zemanta
  • 30-Story Building Built in 360 Hours [Time-Lapse Video]

    A Chinese company just built a pre-fabricated 30-story building built in 15 days.

    This energy-efficient hotel was built at a fraction of normal Chinese construction costs, with no worker injuries. And the building isn't flimsy … It was built to withstand a 9.0-magnitude earthquake.  

    This is interesting because it shows what's possible.  Think of how many "rules" and assumptions they had to break or get beyond to conceive and make this happen.

    Here is a time-lapse video of the the construction.

     

     

    What can you accomplish in 360 hours?

     

    Enhanced by Zemanta