Capitalogix

Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 08/09/10

There is a solution to everything.  Of course, some solutions are better than others.

The government's latest snapshot of the job market was bleak, with 14.6 million Americans still searching for work.  The disappointment is not limited to July; the report also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months.  It is becoming clear that the existing policy mix is not appropriate for the task at hand.

Even though we've heard bad news, the market has continued to hold up well. And that is a decidedly bullish sign.  There are also a number of positive signs of market strength (like strong breadth, increased corporate spending, and lots of capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed).

Market Commentary:  Let's Look Under the Covers.

The charts show a few challenges ahead, however.  First, the S&P 500 Index is sitting at a resistance zone in a rising wedge pattern.  From a technical analysis perspective, that pattern is often bearish (or the place traders look for a reversal).

Bulls are looking for a sustained move above the 1140 level to make them comfortable.

Second, the Dollar looks like it might be at a support level. Will it reverse here?  These two markets often move counter to each other.  So, having the Dollar at "support" while the S&P 500 Index is at "resistance" might increase the odds of a market turn here.

Just something to keep your eye on.

Finally, this is from late May; but it is making the rounds again ... and I thought it was worth sharing.

Steve Wynn Is Not a Shy Man With Few Opinions.

In this video, Steve Wynn (a casino resort/real-estate developer who has been credited with spearheading the dramatic resurgence and expansion of the Las Vegas Strip) calls out the White House and talks about the Fall of America. Interesting perspective from a billionaire.

 

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Newsweek Sells For $1 To 92-Year Old Stereo Equipment Mogul Sidney Harman. (BizInsider)
• Cheap Money: IBM Just Borrowed $1.5B at 1%, Via a Three-Year Bond. (WSJ)
• Do Bond Yields Below 3% Signal a Double-Dip Coming? (Economist)
• Sobering Stats: What Are the Odds That the Economy Is In Good Shape? (Insider)
• For Fed, No Easy Answers in Easy Money. (WSJ)

• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Former CIA Chief Says U.S. Strike on Iran More Likely Than Ever. (Slate)
• Who Knew? Merriam-Webster Ask the Editor Video on the Plural of Octopus. (MW)
• The Google Wave Shut-Down Decision Shows Strong Innovation Management. (HBR)
• Superman Saves Family From Foreclosure - After Homeowners Find $250K Comic (Newser)
• Food For Thought: Meat-Based Diet Made Us Smarter. (NPR)

• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Trends still remain up as the S&P 500 index hits 100-day moving average (investmentpostcards.com)
• NYSE Cumulative Breadth Hits New High But ... (tradersnarrative.com)
• Market Snapshot: Fed stimulus decision focus of upcoming week (marketwatch.com)
• NDR: Consumer Confidence vs. Analyst Confidence (tradersnarrative.com)
• Mcclellan Oscillator Is Positive (pragcap.com)

The New Version of Dragon NaturallySpeaking Is Very Cool.

Another barrier between person and machine is fading ... and your voice is the key.

Here is a demo I made showing how Dragon NaturallySpeaking 11 turns your talk into typing (or helps you send an e-mail without touching the keyboard).  It really is as accurate and easy to use as it looks in this video.

 

 

Communicate More Naturally With Dragon NaturallySpeaking.

Can you type is quickly as you think? I certainly can't.

How do you think that affects your writing?

Humans can only focus on a few things at a time, and if you're focused on where your fingers are going or whether you've made a mistake, you are using cognitive resources that could have gone into thinking better or communicating more clearly.

It shouldn't come as a big surprise to you that talking is so much more natural than typing. Think how much more practice you get doing it. So, it follows that it's easier to create natural sounding content by transcribing what you say, rather than typing what you think.

With Dragon NaturallySpeaking, you get the best of both worlds. It transcribes your voice, and then you have an opportunity to edit it using your voice or the keyboard.

The Whole Process Is Faster ... Not Just the Typing.

Because the process is more natural (and less error-prone), something that might take hours to compose on a keyboard can be dictated in a few minutes. More importantly, it will probably sound better and be easier to understand.

How Fast Do You Type? You can check your speed here or here.

I was surprised to learn that my average typing speed is between 40 and 50 words per minute.  Dragon NaturallySpeaking clocks in about three times faster than that.

Speech Recognition Is Getting Better All the Time.

The first time I saw someone use speech recognition was in the mid-1990s. As you might suspect, the technology was much cruder than it is today.  However, the user had Parkinson's disease. So the hassle of learning to use a pre-cursor to this technology made sense. As an early adopter, I tried it too. But back then, it didn't make sense for me to use it regularly. Fast forward to today, and I use Dragon NaturallySpeaking almost every day. Why? Because it's easier for me than typing.

Nuance has become a leader in this field. In addition to DNS, they've got great applications that work on smart phones, and they also bought the popular service called Jott. I mention it because their massive user-base across these products and services allow Nuance to collect millions of voice samples and customer feedback from around the world. The samples show not only different ways that people pronounce words, but which words are more likely to be spoken, and in what context. Add that to the improvements in microphones, sound cards, processing power, etc. -- and the result is a faster and more accurate recognition engine.

Earlier versions of the technology were very dependent on how well you trained it. Now, it works decently out-of-the-box, with virtually no setup or specialized training. As good as it is, I appreciate that Nuance makes it easy for the program to learn my writing style and particular vocabulary. To do this, for example, you can let it look at your sent mail folder or a folder of word processing documents.

Try It Yourself.

If you're a fumble-fingered typist, I highly recommend that you go out and find a copy of this program. However, even if you're a good typist, I recommend that you get a copy because you'll find that you write better and spend more time focusing on what you're going to say ... rather than worrying whether you got it down on paper the right way.

Bottom-Line:  It's time to give this technology a fresh look. It's ready for prime time, and I think Nuance has a hit.

Give it a try.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Nuance Unveils Dragon NaturallySpeaking Version 11, Simply Smarter Speech Recognition (eon.businesswire.com)
• Dragon NaturallySpeaking Improves Speech Recognition (informationweek.com)
• Dragon NaturallySpeaking dictation cool but not foolproof (usatoday.com)
• Google Working on Voice Recognition for All Browsers [Speech Recognition] (lifehacker.com)

Great Summer Reading: Nelson DeMille's "The Charm School".

It is 106° here in Texas.  That is sit-in-the-shade (or better yet, air-condtitioning)  and read a book weather.

One of the recent news stories reminded me of a good book, worth recommending.

Spies Among Us.

The allegations were shocking: four couples living in the U.S. under assumed false identities while secretly working as covert Russian spies on long-term, "deep-cover" assignments to obtain information on nuclear weapons.

Behind the scenes, they were known as "illegals" — short for illegal Russian agents — and were believed to have fake back stories known as "legends."

U.S. authorities say they sometimes worked in pairs and pretended to be married so they could blend into American society as the couple next door. Aside from fake identities, authorities say, they used Cold War spycraft — invisible ink, coded radio transmissions, encrypted data — to avoid detection.

It sounds like a story right out of a Nelson DeMille novel.

Wait, it is the plot-line of one of his best books, The Charm School, written in 1988.

The plot is simple and compelling. Two U.S. diplomats in the Soviet Union discover that many of the U.S. pilots shot down over Vietnam (and classified as Missing-In-Action) ended-up at the KGB-run "Mrs. Ivanova's Charm School". There, the Soviets forced the pilots to teach aspiring Russian spies how to act, speak, and pass as Americans. Once discovered, the embassy and US government have to decide how to react. With Glasnost on the table and the two countries trying to work together, this revelation can destroy everything.

If you are looking for a fun book to read, this is a great story. I recommend it.

Other Links About this Topic:

• Nelson DeMille's Website.
• The Spy Next Door News Coverage.
• AP: Ten Russians Accused Of ‘Snooping’.
• The Philadelphia version of a Soviet 'American village'.

Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 08/02/10

On the surface, July was a good month in the markets.  It sparked my curiosity about what insiders are doing.  Do their actions show that they see a sustained recovery coming?

Insider Buying Has Dried Up Since May.

Insider buying and selling behavior offers a unique insight on the prospects of a company, industry, economic sector, or even the stock market in general. By definition, Insiders have a deep knowledge and understanding of the company, exclusive information on the company's performance and prospects ... and if they are risking their own money on the stock, you might expect that they have good reasons, especially when several insiders buy or sell at the same time.

Well, since May, Insiders have certainly changed their buying habits. Here is a chart from Insidercow showing how bearish insiders are right now.

Another sign I've been watching has been the performance of China.

China's Shanghai Index Has Some Room to Move.

China's Shanghai Index has been in a downtrend for a while. It has under-performed most of the major world markets recently. However, in early July it bounced nicely off the downtrend channel. At this point, it is sitting right at the resistance zone. A sustained move above the 2700 level will likely give the index plenty of room to rally. On the other hand, a failure at this level could send a signal to other world markets.

This next chart shows a weekly view of gold. This is a market that I don't pay close attention to, normally. Nonetheless, its chart caught my eye this weekend.

Decision Time for Gold.

The price of Gold is sitting at the bottom of the up-channel.  So, this where you'd expect to see buying come in from those expecting the up-trend to continue in Gold.  The chart speaks for itself.

We'll see what happens.  Hope you have a good week.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Where Does BP's $17B Loss Rank in the 25 Biggest Quarterly Losses in History? (Insider)
• EconoPhysics - A Richter Scale for Studying Financial Earthquakes. (NYTimes)
• Foreclosures Up In 75 Percent of Top U.S. Metro Areas. (Reuters)
• Sign of the Times: Someone Just Bought the Pontiac Superdome for $500K. (BizWeek)
• Goldman's Leading Indicator at 7-Month Low, Predicts ISM Collapse this Week. (Insider) 
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

 

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Chess Metaphors: Artificial Intelligence and the Human Mind. (NYBooks)
• Despite Human Expectations, the Future May Not Resemble the Last 6 Months. (NYTimes)
• Personal Details Exposed Via Biggest U.S. Websites. (WSJ)
• Study Confirms the Existence of the "Cougar" & Why They Have More Fun. (The Week)
• Neb. Town Giving Away Land for Free Hoping to Generate Tax Revenue. (Newser) 
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.