December 2009

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/09

    Since I'm spending the holidays in Asia, I thought I'd share a few lighter things this week.

    First up is the Elf-Yourself site from JibJab.  And my wife says I can't dance.

    Send your own ElfYourself eCards

    Click here to make one yourself.

    Second, here is something I look forward to each year.  Uncle Jay sings the year in review.

    Market Commentary.

    At the end of each year, the big financial media outlets typically conduct roundtables to get outlooks from key players in the financial markets.  Over the past few years, the individuals that run the best financial blogs and websites have become key players in their own rights, and their opinions are highly regarded by millions of loyal readers.  This year, Bespoke asked twelve popular financial blogs/websites to respond to the same 25 questions regarding their 2010 outlooks as well as their take on 2009. 

     091226 Bespoke Roundtable

    The responses were thought-provoking, and hopefully they will help you form your opinions on what is to come for financial markets in the year ahead. 

    Best Wishes for a happy holiday season and for a prosperous New Year.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/09

    Since I'm spending the holidays in Asia, I thought I'd share a few lighter things this week.

    First up is the Elf-Yourself site from JibJab.  And my wife says I can't dance.

    Send your own ElfYourself eCards

    Click here to make one yourself.

    Second, here is something I look forward to each year.  Uncle Jay sings the year in review.

    Market Commentary.

    At the end of each year, the big financial media outlets typically conduct roundtables to get outlooks from key players in the financial markets.  Over the past few years, the individuals that run the best financial blogs and websites have become key players in their own rights, and their opinions are highly regarded by millions of loyal readers.  This year, Bespoke asked twelve popular financial blogs/websites to respond to the same 25 questions regarding their 2010 outlooks as well as their take on 2009. 

     091226 Bespoke Roundtable

    The responses were thought-provoking, and hopefully they will help you form your opinions on what is to come for financial markets in the year ahead. 

    Best Wishes for a happy holiday season and for a prosperous New Year.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Simon Sinek Says “Start with Why”

    091220-Simom-Sinek-and-Howa Inspiration is stronger than persuasion.  It gives people a sense of purpose and belonging that has little to do with external incentive or benefit.

    Simon Sinek, who is quite charismatic and well-spoken, is delivering this message to a rapidly growing fan-base. 

    My team thought Simon was inspiring, engaging and insightful.

    You can watch a short video that introduces his material below. 

    In addition, you can explore more of his ideas in his book,
    Start
    with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action    .

    An Example of Finding the Right Person for a Job.

    Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits … or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose? 

    Phrased that way, of course you know the answer.  Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?

    Shackleton's Boat Stuck in Ice in at the South Pole For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept.  Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914. Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:

    "MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS.
    – SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"

    When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost. The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.

    Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?

    Watch This Video.

    Here is a video of Simon speaking at a Ted Conference.  It is a great intro to his stuff. 

    Other Resources:

    Related Posts:

  • Simon Sinek Says “Start with Why”

    091220-Simom-Sinek-and-Howa Inspiration is stronger than persuasion.  It gives people a sense of purpose and belonging that has little to do with external incentive or benefit.

    Simon Sinek, who is quite charismatic and well-spoken, is delivering this message to a rapidly growing fan-base. 

    My team thought Simon was inspiring, engaging and insightful.

    You can watch a short video that introduces his material below. 

    In addition, you can explore more of his ideas in his book,
    Start
    with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action    .

    An Example of Finding the Right Person for a Job.

    Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits … or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose? 

    Phrased that way, of course you know the answer.  Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?

    Shackleton's Boat Stuck in Ice in at the South Pole For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept.  Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914. Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:

    "MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS.
    – SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"

    When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost. The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.

    Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?

    Watch This Video.

    Here is a video of Simon speaking at a Ted Conference.  It is a great intro to his stuff. 

    Other Resources:

    Related Posts:

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/20/09

    091218-John-Mauldin-and-Geo John Mauldin and George Friedman
    were in Dallas this week.  Several hundred people came out to hear
    their thoughts on the world and the economy. 

    For what it's worth, Freidman's Stratfor service and Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline and are both terrific reads.

    I take it as a bullish
    sign that so many people made time, in the middle of the day, for an
    event like this. 

    While the mood in the room was that the
    easy money has already been made in the equity markets, people were
    looking for places to put money to work. 

    Sentiment Soaring …

    Up-and-Down … the ride continues.  Still, sentiment is quite bullish.  How bullish?  AAII's weekly survey showed the fewest bears since April 30th. That was just about the time the Russell 2000 rolled-over to start an 8% correction.

    091213 Bull and Bear Coaster

    Market Commentary.

    Here is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  It shows the market at a decision-point.  The month-long consolidation has taken the market to a place just above major support and resistance level … And back to the upwards sloping trendline.  

    091220 Dow at Decision Point

    Traders expect a big move after periods of compressed range (like the one we are in now).  Bollinger Bands are often used to represent volatility. You can construct by plotting bands two standard deviations on either side of the 20-period moving average (note the pink bands in the chart above).  One of the indicators I keep an eye on, is the band-width of these Bollinger Bands (it is plotted in the bottom pane of the chart shown above). When it gets narrow for an extended period, that "squeeze" puts me on alert for expanding volatility. 

    What do you do?  You watch price.  This is the classic buy point in an up-trend.  On the other hand, there's everything else.

    Insight: Price is the Primary Indicator.

    What do you think is the most bullish indicator of our markets?  It's not a trick question; the answer is "price".

    The
    markets have held-up nicely, throughout this rally, despite lots of bad
    news about the economy. And that, in-and-of-itself, is bullish.

    It
    doesn't matter what technical analysis indicator you use (increasing
    negative divergences and selling on down days … or less positive
    momentum and market breadth), the markets have given us a clear message
    recently. Price is the primary indicator, and it has stayed above
    support. 

    While there will likely be a bearish divergence when
    the trend finally ends, it is clear that a strong uptrend trumps most
    bearish divergences.

    The Implications of America's Rapidly Expanding Debt.

    Here is a video from Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack, about the lessons of history. Best selling author and historian Niall Ferguson talks about the seismic global economic and market shifts of recent years mean for our future, particularly the longer term implications of America's exploding debt.

    Here is the transcript.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Volcker: No Growth Besides What the Fed's Pouring Into the Economy. (BusinessInsider)
    • M&A Activity: Google Buying Start-ups Again. (BusinessInsider)
    • A Start-Up Jokingly Touted a $100 Billion Valuation. Now VCs are Calling. (Forbes)
    • Wal-Mart's Web War Against Amazon Risks Little. (WSJ)
    • What's Glittering Isn't Always Gold – Other Metals Doing Well.(WSJ)
    • Thoughts on the Market's Recent Gap Activity. (Quantifiable Edges)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • A Glimpse at the Future from Microsoft's Lead Tech Visionary. (CNet)
    • Forbes Gave Ken Auletta’s ‘Googled’ a Great Book Review. (Forbes)
    • Milken Institute's Journal of Economic Policy Worth a Look. (Milken)
    • Craziest Google Street View Shots. (HuffingtonPost)
    • Jewish Delis Are Dwindling, Traditions and All. (NYTimes)
    • MIT's Next Bionic Breakthrough … Stepping Beyond Human. (Forbes)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/20/09

    091218-John-Mauldin-and-Geo John Mauldin and George Friedman
    were in Dallas this week.  Several hundred people came out to hear
    their thoughts on the world and the economy. 

    For what it's worth, Freidman's Stratfor service and Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline and are both terrific reads.

    I take it as a bullish
    sign that so many people made time, in the middle of the day, for an
    event like this. 

    While the mood in the room was that the
    easy money has already been made in the equity markets, people were
    looking for places to put money to work. 

    Sentiment Soaring …

    Up-and-Down … the ride continues.  Still, sentiment is quite bullish.  How bullish?  AAII's weekly survey showed the fewest bears since April 30th. That was just about the time the Russell 2000 rolled-over to start an 8% correction.

    091213 Bull and Bear Coaster

    Market Commentary.

    Here is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  It shows the market at a decision-point.  The month-long consolidation has taken the market to a place just above major support and resistance level … And back to the upwards sloping trendline.  

    091220 Dow at Decision Point

    Traders expect a big move after periods of compressed range (like the one we are in now).  Bollinger Bands are often used to represent volatility. You can construct by plotting bands two standard deviations on either side of the 20-period moving average (note the pink bands in the chart above).  One of the indicators I keep an eye on, is the band-width of these Bollinger Bands (it is plotted in the bottom pane of the chart shown above). When it gets narrow for an extended period, that "squeeze" puts me on alert for expanding volatility. 

    What do you do?  You watch price.  This is the classic buy point in an up-trend.  On the other hand, there's everything else.

    Insight: Price is the Primary Indicator.

    What do you think is the most bullish indicator of our markets?  It's not a trick question; the answer is "price".

    The
    markets have held-up nicely, throughout this rally, despite lots of bad
    news about the economy. And that, in-and-of-itself, is bullish.

    It
    doesn't matter what technical analysis indicator you use (increasing
    negative divergences and selling on down days … or less positive
    momentum and market breadth), the markets have given us a clear message
    recently. Price is the primary indicator, and it has stayed above
    support. 

    While there will likely be a bearish divergence when
    the trend finally ends, it is clear that a strong uptrend trumps most
    bearish divergences.

    The Implications of America's Rapidly Expanding Debt.

    Here is a video from Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack, about the lessons of history. Best selling author and historian Niall Ferguson talks about the seismic global economic and market shifts of recent years mean for our future, particularly the longer term implications of America's exploding debt.

    Here is the transcript.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Volcker: No Growth Besides What the Fed's Pouring Into the Economy. (BusinessInsider)
    • M&A Activity: Google Buying Start-ups Again. (BusinessInsider)
    • A Start-Up Jokingly Touted a $100 Billion Valuation. Now VCs are Calling. (Forbes)
    • Wal-Mart's Web War Against Amazon Risks Little. (WSJ)
    • What's Glittering Isn't Always Gold – Other Metals Doing Well.(WSJ)
    • Thoughts on the Market's Recent Gap Activity. (Quantifiable Edges)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • A Glimpse at the Future from Microsoft's Lead Tech Visionary. (CNet)
    • Forbes Gave Ken Auletta’s ‘Googled’ a Great Book Review. (Forbes)
    • Milken Institute's Journal of Economic Policy Worth a Look. (Milken)
    • Craziest Google Street View Shots. (HuffingtonPost)
    • Jewish Delis Are Dwindling, Traditions and All. (NYTimes)
    • MIT's Next Bionic Breakthrough … Stepping Beyond Human. (Forbes)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Observations on Holiday Season Economic Indicators

    Hopefully, you are having a happy holiday season.

    Technology is changing how I prepare this year.  A major portion of my gift purchases happened online, rather than in-person.  What about you?

     Everything is Moving Online

    I did go to the malls; and what I found was lots of parking spaces and deals that I could easily better with an internet connection.

    It will be interesting to see how consumers spent, and which retailers were naughty and nice.

    Here are a few of the other things I noticed recently.

    The Christmas Lights Economic Indicator?

    In past years, my neighborhood was a flashing Wonderland of Christmas lights.  This year, the displays are much more down-to-earth.  Are people feeling less jolly?  My guess is that fewer people chose to pay someone to hang the lights for them.

    The Blockbuster Indicator?

    When I went to see Avatar, on its opening day at the theater, a quarter of the seats were empty.   Box Office Mojo reports that the opening numbers were respectable, though not phenomenal.  The reviews have been great … so perhaps fewer people chose to pay the $3 per ticket premium to see this movie in 3D because they are more in touch with their budgets and spending limits.

  • Observations on Holiday Season Economic Indicators

    Hopefully, you are having a happy holiday season.

    Technology is changing how I prepare this year.  A major portion of my gift purchases happened online, rather than in-person.  What about you?

     Everything is Moving Online

    I did go to the malls; and what I found was lots of parking spaces and deals that I could easily better with an internet connection.

    It will be interesting to see how consumers spent, and which retailers were naughty and nice.

    Here are a few of the other things I noticed recently.

    The Christmas Lights Economic Indicator?

    In past years, my neighborhood was a flashing Wonderland of Christmas lights.  This year, the displays are much more down-to-earth.  Are people feeling less jolly?  My guess is that fewer people chose to pay someone to hang the lights for them.

    The Blockbuster Indicator?

    When I went to see Avatar, on its opening day at the theater, a quarter of the seats were empty.   Box Office Mojo reports that the opening numbers were respectable, though not phenomenal.  The reviews have been great … so perhaps fewer people chose to pay the $3 per ticket premium to see this movie in 3D because they are more in touch with their budgets and spending limits.

  • Avatar Delivers the Wow!

    091220 Avatar Poster 800pI highly recommend seeing James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, in 3-D.  It was terrific … much better than I hoped or expected.

    It was so good that none of us would leave to refill the popcorn … And my wife didn't use the bathroom once (which means you should expect Avatar to win a bunch of Oscars).

    The story and underlying message were good. Yet, that isn't why people will flock to see it. This is one of those
    "you have to watch this on a big screen" movies. It is a spectacle.

    Enjoy it for what it
    is … And later, think about how many cool technologies you saw the
    characters use that you can't wait for someone to develop in this
    world.  Visionary and very cool.

    Here is a short example of what to expect.

    Not All 3-D is Created Equal.

    The CGI effects were way better than I expected.  Frankly it was hard to tell what was "real" and what wasn't.  The unsung hero, though, was the 3-D technology.  It was far and away the best I've seen, because it seemed real and natural, rather than a gimmick.  It was so good, you forget it is in 3D.

    091220 Cowboys Attempt at 3-D In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys handed out the older blue and red filmed 3-D glasses at their game against the San Diego Chargers last week.  The idea was to use the giant screen to show 3-D replay highlights. 

    Here is a picture of people trying to use them at the game.  At first, it was novel.  However, as you might have guessed, watching the live game with the glasses was almost impossible.  After a few minutes, the crowd started booing until the stadium switched back to regular graphics.

    After watching Avatar, though, I expect to see a lot more 3-D content. Major manufacturers are betting on it too. The technology is getting better … And so is the experience.

    Other Resources:

  • Avatar Delivers the Wow!

    091220 Avatar Poster 800pI highly recommend seeing James Cameron's new movie, Avatar, in 3-D.  It was terrific … much better than I hoped or expected.

    It was so good that none of us would leave to refill the popcorn … And my wife didn't use the bathroom once (which means you should expect Avatar to win a bunch of Oscars).

    The story and underlying message were good. Yet, that isn't why people will flock to see it. This is one of those
    "you have to watch this on a big screen" movies. It is a spectacle.

    Enjoy it for what it
    is … And later, think about how many cool technologies you saw the
    characters use that you can't wait for someone to develop in this
    world.  Visionary and very cool.

    Here is a short example of what to expect.

    Not All 3-D is Created Equal.

    The CGI effects were way better than I expected.  Frankly it was hard to tell what was "real" and what wasn't.  The unsung hero, though, was the 3-D technology.  It was far and away the best I've seen, because it seemed real and natural, rather than a gimmick.  It was so good, you forget it is in 3D.

    091220 Cowboys Attempt at 3-D In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys handed out the older blue and red filmed 3-D glasses at their game against the San Diego Chargers last week.  The idea was to use the giant screen to show 3-D replay highlights. 

    Here is a picture of people trying to use them at the game.  At first, it was novel.  However, as you might have guessed, watching the live game with the glasses was almost impossible.  After a few minutes, the crowd started booing until the stadium switched back to regular graphics.

    After watching Avatar, though, I expect to see a lot more 3-D content. Major manufacturers are betting on it too. The technology is getting better … And so is the experience.

    Other Resources: